Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

The BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System) fi eld experiments: A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer data set for model validation over the open and ice- covered Baltic Sea

A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) data set was collected in eight fi eld experiments (two during each season) over open water and sea ice in the Baltic Sea during 1998–2001 with the primary objective to validate the coupled atmospheric- ice-ocean-land surface model BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System). Measurements were taken by aircraft, ships and surface stations and cover the mean and turbulent structure of the ABL including turbulent fl uxes, radiation fl uxes, and cloud conditions. Measurement examples of the spatial variability of the ABL over the ice edge zone and of the stable ABL over open water demonstrate the wide range of ABL conditions collected and the strength of the data set which can also be used to validate other regional models.

SRTM resample with short distance-low nugget kriging

The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), was flow on the space shuttle Endeavour in February 2000, with the objective of acquiring a digital elevation model of all land between 60 degrees north latitude and 56 degrees south latitude, using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques. The SRTM data are distributed at horizontal resolution of 1 arc-second (similar to 30m) for areas within the USA and at 3 arc-second (similar to 90m) resolution for the rest of the world. A resolution of 90m can be considered suitable for the small or medium-scale analysis, but it is too coarse for more detailed purposes. One alternative is to interpolate the SRTM data at a finer resolution; it will not increase the level of detail of the original digital elevation model (DEM), but it will lead to a surface where there is the coherence of angular properties (i.e. slope, aspect) between neighbouring pixels, which is an important characteristic when dealing with terrain analysis. This work intents to show how the proper adjustment of variogram and kriging parameters, namely the nugget effect and the maximum distance within which values are used in interpolation, can be set to achieve quality results on resampling SRTM data from 3"" to 1"". We present for a test area in western USA, which includes different adjustment schemes (changes in nugget effect value and in the interpolation radius) and comparisons with the original 1"" model of the area, with the national elevation dataset (NED) DEMs, and with other interpolation methods (splines and inverse distance weighted (IDW)). The basic concepts for using kriging to resample terrain data are: (i) working only with the immediate neighbourhood of the predicted point, due to the high spatial correlation of the topographic surface and omnidirectional behaviour of variogram in short distances; (ii) adding a very small random variation to the coordinates of the points prior to interpolation, to avoid punctual artifacts generated by predicted points with the same location than original data points and; (iii) using a small value of nugget effect, to avoid smoothing that can obliterate terrain features. Drainages derived from the surfaces interpolated by kriging and by splines have a good agreement with streams derived from the 1"" NED, with correct identification of watersheds, even though a few differences occur in the positions of some rivers in flat areas. Although the 1"" surfaces resampled by kriging and splines are very similar, we consider the results produced by kriging as superior, since the spline-interpolated surface still presented some noise and linear artifacts, which were removed by kriging.

NDVI With Artificial Neural Networks For SRTM Elevation Model Improvement – Hydrological Model Application

Digital elevation model (DEM) plays a substantial role in hydrological study, from understanding the catchment characteristics, setting up a hydrological model to mapping the flood risk in the region. Depending on the nature of study and its objectives, high resolution and reliable DEM is often desired to set up a sound hydrological model. However, such source of good DEM is not always available and it is generally high-priced. Obtained through radar based remote sensing, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is a publicly available DEM with resolution of 92m outside US. It is a great source of DEM where no surveyed DEM is available. However, apart from the coarse resolution, SRTM suffers from inaccuracy especially on area with dense vegetation coverage due to the limitation of radar signals not penetrating through canopy. This will lead to the improper setup of the model as well as the erroneous mapping of flood risk. This paper attempts on improving SRTM dataset, using Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Visible Red and Near Infra-Red band obtained from Landsat with resolution of 30m, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The assessment of the improvement and the applicability of this method in hydrology would be highlighted and discussed.

Response surface models to predict broiler performance and applications for economic analysis

A study was carried out to elaborate response surface models using broiler performance data recovered from literature in order to predict performance and elaborate economic analyses. Nineteen studies published between 1995 and 2005 were retrieved using the systematic literature review method. Weight gain and feed conversion data were collected from eight studies that fulfilled the pre-established inclusion criteria, and a response surface model was adjusted using crude protein, environmental temperature, and age as independent variables. The models produced for weight gain (r² = 0.93) and feed conversion (r² = 0.85) were accurate, precise, and not biased. Protein levels, environmental temperature and age showed linear and quadratic effects on weight gain and feed conversion. There was no interaction between protein level and environmental temperature. Age and crude protein showed interaction for weight gain and feed conversion, whereas interaction between age and temperature was detected only for weight gain. It was possible to perform economic analyses to determine maximum profit as a function of the variables that were included in the model. It was concluded that the response surface models are effective to predict the performance of broiler chickens and allow the elaboration of economic analyses to optimize profit.

Classificação numérica e modelo digital de elevação na caracterização espacial de atributos dos solos

One of needs of modern agriculture is the prediction of spatial variability of soil properties at more detailed scales for sustainable management and optimization of management practices. The mathematical model associated with knowledge of variability of soil attributes and mapping of relief forms has helped in agricultural planning. In this regard the aim of this study was to characterize the spatial variability of physical and chemical properties of Oxisols and Ultisols using numerical classification and the digital elevation model. Two distinct landforms: convex for the Oxisol (158 ha) and linear for the Ultisol (172 ha). 53 samples from the Oxisol and 57 samples from the Ultisol were taken. Multivariate analysis of clusters of attributes studied from their euclidean distances was performed. This analysis by dendograms along with digital elevation models for different soils characterized was more homogeneous in Ultisol groups, and less homogeneous for the Oxisol in convex landform. These quantitative methods showed that the landforms conditioned the spatial pattern of soil attributes.

Imageamento digital de paleocavernas colapsadas com georadar

In this study, the methodological procedures involved in digital imaging of collapsed paleocaves in tufa using GPR are presented. These carbonate deposits occur in the Quixeré region, Ceará State (NE Brazil), on the western border of the Potiguar Basin. Collapsed paleocaves are exposed along a state road, which were selected to this study. We chose a portion of the called Quixeré outcrop for making a photomosaic and caring out a GPR test section to compare and parameterize the karst geometries on the geophysical line. The results were satisfactory and led to the adoption of criteria for the interpretation of others GPR sections acquired in the region of the Quixeré outcrop. Two grids of GPR lines were acquired; the first one was wider and more spaced and guided the location of the second grid, denser and located in the southern part of the outcrop. The radargrams of the second grid reveal satisfactorily the collapsed paleocaves geometries. For each grid has been developed a digital solid model of the Quixeré outcrop. The first model allows the recognition of the general distribution and location of collapsed paleocaves in tufa deposits, while the second more detailed digital model provides not only the 3D individualization of the major paleocaves, but also the estimation of their respective volumes. The digital solid models are presented here as a new frontier in the study of analog outcrops to reservoirs (for groundwater and hydrocarbon), in which the volumetric parameterization and characterization of geological bodies become essential for composing the databases, which together with petrophysical properties information, are used in more realistic computer simulations for sedimentary reservoirs.

Remote sensing analysis of depositional landforms in alluvial settings: Method development and application to the Taquari megafan, Pantanal (Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Extração semiautomática de rodovias no espaço-objeto: uso integrado de um estereopar de imagens aéreas e um MDT

Neste artigo é proposto um método semiautomático para extração de rodovias combinando um estereopar de imagens aéreas de baixa resolução com um poliedro gerado a partir de um modelo digital do terreno (MDT). O problema é formulado no espaço-objeto através de uma função objetivo que modela o objeto 'rodovia' como uma curva suave e pertencente a uma superfície poliédrica. A função objetivo proposta depende também de informações radiométricas, que são acessadas no espaço-imagem via relação de colinearidade entre pontos da rodovia no espaço-objeto e os correspondentes nos espaços imagem do estereopar. A linha poligonal que melhor modela a rodovia selecionada é obtida por otimização no espaço-objeto da função objetivo, tendo por base o algoritmo de programação dinâmica. O processo de otimização é iterativo e dependente do fornecimento por um operador de uma aproximação inicial para a rodovia selecionada. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que o método é robusto frente a anomalias existentes ao longo das rodovias, tais como obstruções causadas por sombras e árvores.

Modelo numérico do terreno obtido por diferentes métodos em cartas planialtimétricas

The digital elevation model is important to determine the slope and land use capability, therefore, a proposal of methodology for acquisition of elevation data contemplating an efficient algorithm to generate a slope map was developed. Thus, it was aimed to obtain and evaluate a digital elevation model without the vetorization of the contours on planialtimetric charts. The area for acquisition of elevation data was Sao Manuel, SP. The data were collected by two methods: level contour vetorization and the gathering of elevation points on the level contour with maximum elevation points. The elevation data were analyzed by geostatistical techniques. Inspite of wide difference in the number of collected points between two methods, the variograms were adjusted to the exponential model and showed a range of approximately 1500 m, which does not justify the wide difficulty in vetorization of the planialtimetric charts, once the data points collected in the area were appropriately distributed, they represented rightly the terrain surface.

Experimental peri-implant tissue breakdown around different dental implant surfaces: Clinical and radiographic evaluation in dogs

Purpose: Tissue reactions to 4 different implant surfaces were evaluated in regard to the development and progression of ligature-induced peri-implantitis. Materials and Methods: In 6 male mongrel dogs, a total of 36 dental implants with different surfaces (9 titanium plasma-sprayed, 9 hydroxyapatite-coated, 9 acid-etched, and 9 commercially pure titanium) were placed 3 months after mandibular premolar extraction. After 3 months with optimal plaque control, abutment connection was performed. Forty-five days later, cotton ligatures were placed around the implants to induce peri-implantitis. At baseline and 20, 40, and 60 days after placement, the presence of plaque, peri-implant mucosal redness, bleeding on probing, probing depth, clinical attachment loss, mobility, vertical bone loss, and horizontal bone loss were assessed. Results: The results did not show significant differences among the surfaces for any parameter during the study (P > .05). All surfaces were equally susceptible to ligature-induced peri-implantitis over time (P < .001). Correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between width of keratinized tissue and vertical bone loss (r 2 = 0.81; P = .014) and between mobility and vertical bone loss (r 2 = 0.66; P = .04), both for the titanium plasma-sprayed surface. Discussion and Conclusions: The present data suggest that all surfaces were equally susceptible to experimental peri-implantitis after a 60-day period.

Influência das superfícies geomórficas na distribuição espacial dos atributos do solo em área sob cultivo de cana-de-açúcar

Variations in soil attributes occur based on relief forms and parent material. The objective of this research was to study the influences of geomorphic surfaces on the spatial distribution of soil attributes in a sugarcane cultivation area. First, 530,67 hectares were mapped by using a Global Positioning System. Then, a Digital Elevation Model was developed and geomorphic surfaces were identified and delimited, according to topographic and stratigraphic criteria based on detailed field investigations. Soil samples were collected every 7 ha, at 0.0-0.25 m and 0.80-1.00 m depths, totalizing 134 samples. Texture, Ca, K, Mg, SB, CEC, V%, pH, and OMS analyses were carried out as well as descriptive statistics and geostatistics analysis. It was concluded that the geostatistic techniques and digital elevation model helped to notice that soil attributes presented limits close to the geomorphic surfaces ones.

SIG e sensoriamento remoto aplicado ao estudo dos processos de inundação e mapeamento da cobertura vegetal na planície fluvial do alto Rio Paraná

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Produção de conteúdos na era digital: a experiência do Roteiro do dia

Pós-graduação em Televisão Digital: Informação e Conhecimento - FAAC