Modelo tridimensional em elementos finitos para a análise de cabo umbilical STU submetido ao carregamento de crushing.

Este trabalho desenvolve e apresenta um modelo tridimensional em elementos finitos de um cabo umbilical do tipo STU (Steel Tube Umbilical) utilizado na extração offshore de petróleo. Tal modelo é utilizado para estudar o carregamento de crushing, que é imposto ao cabo umbilical pelas sapatas do tensionador durante o seu lançamento, de modo a obter de forma detalhada a distribuição de tensões nos componentes do núcleo, com foco nos tubos de aço utilizados para o transporte de fluidos. A metodologia empregada no desenvolvimento do modelo é descrita detalhadamente ao longo do trabalho, de forma que possa vir a ser utilizada no estudo de outras configurações de cabos umbilicais. O modelo elaborado é utilizado (i) como paradigma para a validação de um modelo bidimensional, que visa analisar o mesmo problema de forma mais simples e rápida, e (ii) para o estudo do comportamento das tensões nos tubos de aço na região de transição de entrada/saída da sapata. Na comparação entre os modelos bi e tridimensional, o trabalho conclui pela validade do modelo bidimensional na avaliação das tensões nos tubos de aço resultantes do carregamento de crushing, na região central do cabo. O estudo realizado na região de transição de entrada/saída da sapata permitiu verificar que ocorre um aumento dos níveis de tensão nos tubos de aço nessas regiões de transição, com redistribuição do campo de tensões após plastificação.

Spin splitting in a polarized quasi-two-dimensional exciton gas

We have observed a large spin splitting between "spin" +1 and -1 heavy-hole excitons, having unbalanced populations, in undoped GaAs/AlAs quantum wells in the absence of any external magnetic field. Time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy, under excitation with circularly polarized light, reveals that, for high excitonic density and short times after the pulsed excitation, the emission from majority excitons lies above that of minority ones. The amount of the splitting, which can be as large as 50% of the binding energy, increases with excitonic density and presents a time evolution closely connected with the degree of polarization of the luminescence. Our results are interpreted on the light of a recently developed model, which shows that, while intraexcitonic exchange interaction is responsible for the spin relaxation processes, exciton-exciton interaction produces a breaking of the spin degeneracy in two-dimensional semiconductors.

3D numerical modelling of acoustic horns using the method of fundamental solutions

In the present work, a three-dimensional (3D) formulation based on the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) is applied to the study of acoustic horns. The implemented model follows and extends previous works that only considered two-dimensional and axisymmetric horn configurations. The more realistic case of 3D acoustic horns with symmetry regarding two orthogonal planes is addressed. The use of the domain decomposition technique with two interconnected sub-regions along a continuity boundary is proposed, allowing for the computation of the sound pressure generated by an acoustic horn installed on a rigid screen. In order to reduce the model discretization requirements for these cases, Green’s functions derived with the image source methodology are adopted, automatically accounting for the presence of symmetry conditions. A strategy for the calculation of an optimal position of the virtual sources used by the MFS to define the solution is also used, leading to improved reliability and flexibility of the proposed method. The responses obtained by the developed model are compared to reference solutions, computed by well-established models based on the boundary element method. Additionally, numerically calculated acoustic parameters, such as directivity and beamwidth, are compared with those evaluated experimentally.

Forest-based supply chain modelling using the SimPy simulation framework

Proper management of supply chains is fundamental in the overall system performance of forestbased activities. Usually, efficient management techniques rely on a decision support software, which needs to be able to generate fast and effective outputs from the set of possibilities. In order to do this, it is necessary to provide accurate models representative of the dynamic interactions of systems. Due to forest-based supply chains’ nature, event-based models are more suited to describe their behaviours. This work proposes the modelling and simulation of a forestbased supply chain, in particular the biomass supply chain, through the SimPy framework. This Python based tool allows the modelling of discrete-event systems using operations such as events, processes and resources. The developed model was used to access the impact of changes in the daily working plan in three situations. First, as a control case, the deterministic behaviour was simulated. As a second approach, a machine delay was introduced and its implications in the plan accomplishment were analysed. Finally, to better address real operating conditions, stochastic behaviours of processing and driving times were simulated. The obtained results validate the SimPy simulation environment as a framework for modelling supply chains in general and for the biomass problem in particular.

Designing Regularizers and Architectures for Recurrent Neural Networks

Cette thèse contribue a la recherche vers l'intelligence artificielle en utilisant des méthodes connexionnistes. Les réseaux de neurones récurrents sont un ensemble de modèles séquentiels de plus en plus populaires capable en principe d'apprendre des algorithmes arbitraires. Ces modèles effectuent un apprentissage en profondeur, un type d'apprentissage machine. Sa généralité et son succès empirique en font un sujet intéressant pour la recherche et un outil prometteur pour la création de l'intelligence artificielle plus générale. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse donne un bref aperçu des sujets de fonds: l'intelligence artificielle, l'apprentissage machine, l'apprentissage en profondeur et les réseaux de neurones récurrents. Les trois chapitres suivants couvrent ces sujets de manière de plus en plus spécifiques. Enfin, nous présentons quelques contributions apportées aux réseaux de neurones récurrents. Le chapitre \ref{arxiv1} présente nos travaux de régularisation des réseaux de neurones récurrents. La régularisation vise à améliorer la capacité de généralisation du modèle, et joue un role clé dans la performance de plusieurs applications des réseaux de neurones récurrents, en particulier en reconnaissance vocale. Notre approche donne l'état de l'art sur TIMIT, un benchmark standard pour cette tâche. Le chapitre \ref{cpgp} présente une seconde ligne de travail, toujours en cours, qui explore une nouvelle architecture pour les réseaux de neurones récurrents. Les réseaux de neurones récurrents maintiennent un état caché qui représente leurs observations antérieures. L'idée de ce travail est de coder certaines dynamiques abstraites dans l'état caché, donnant au réseau une manière naturelle d'encoder des tendances cohérentes de l'état de son environnement. Notre travail est fondé sur un modèle existant; nous décrivons ce travail et nos contributions avec notamment une expérience préliminaire.

Estudo de balística interna

O conhecimento e a compreensão dos processos que ocorrem no interior do tubo de uma arma de fogo, desde a ignição da carga propulsora, até à saída do projétil, é importante no desenvolvimento do armamento, de uma forma económica e segura. Com a modelação matemática destes processos, que é uma abordagem muito utilizada atualmente, é possível otimizar a carga explosiva e os materiais utilizados. Este estudo foi realizado no âmbito do projeto FIREND, resultante da colaboração entre a Academia Militar e o Instituto Superior Técnico O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado a um sistema, arma, carga propulsora e projétil, já existente, tendo os resultados obtidos sido validados com o software PRODAS e tabelas referentes ao presente sistema. Para melhor compreender a importância das variáveis envolvidas, é feita uma análise de sensibilidade a diversos parâmetros balísticos, mantendo constante as dimensões da arma em estudo. Na análise dos resultados verifica-se que a cinta de travamento é um elemento muito importante, alterando significativamente os valores da pressão e da velocidade. Verificou-se também que com cargas propulsoras de maior taxa de queima é possível obter valores mais elevados de pressão máxima e velocidade à saída. Palavras chave: Balística interna; Projétil de Artilharia; Pressão; Velocidade; Modelação matemática; Análise de sensibilidade.

Designing Regularizers and Architectures for Recurrent Neural Networks

Cette thèse contribue a la recherche vers l'intelligence artificielle en utilisant des méthodes connexionnistes. Les réseaux de neurones récurrents sont un ensemble de modèles séquentiels de plus en plus populaires capable en principe d'apprendre des algorithmes arbitraires. Ces modèles effectuent un apprentissage en profondeur, un type d'apprentissage machine. Sa généralité et son succès empirique en font un sujet intéressant pour la recherche et un outil prometteur pour la création de l'intelligence artificielle plus générale. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse donne un bref aperçu des sujets de fonds: l'intelligence artificielle, l'apprentissage machine, l'apprentissage en profondeur et les réseaux de neurones récurrents. Les trois chapitres suivants couvrent ces sujets de manière de plus en plus spécifiques. Enfin, nous présentons quelques contributions apportées aux réseaux de neurones récurrents. Le chapitre \ref{arxiv1} présente nos travaux de régularisation des réseaux de neurones récurrents. La régularisation vise à améliorer la capacité de généralisation du modèle, et joue un role clé dans la performance de plusieurs applications des réseaux de neurones récurrents, en particulier en reconnaissance vocale. Notre approche donne l'état de l'art sur TIMIT, un benchmark standard pour cette tâche. Le chapitre \ref{cpgp} présente une seconde ligne de travail, toujours en cours, qui explore une nouvelle architecture pour les réseaux de neurones récurrents. Les réseaux de neurones récurrents maintiennent un état caché qui représente leurs observations antérieures. L'idée de ce travail est de coder certaines dynamiques abstraites dans l'état caché, donnant au réseau une manière naturelle d'encoder des tendances cohérentes de l'état de son environnement. Notre travail est fondé sur un modèle existant; nous décrivons ce travail et nos contributions avec notamment une expérience préliminaire.

Toward better outcomes with tacrolimus therapy: Population pharmacokinetics and individualized dosage prediction in adult liver transplantation

Patient outcomes in transplantation would improve if dosing of immunosuppressive agents was individualized. The aim of this study is to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult liver transplant recipients and test this model in individualizing therapy. Population analysis was performed on data from 68 patients. Estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F) using the nonlinear mixed effects model program (NONMEM). Factors screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, sex, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, postoperative day, days of therapy, liver function test results, creatinine clearance, hematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and interacting drugs. The predictive performance of the developed model was evaluated through Bayesian forecasting in an independent cohort of 36 patients. No linear correlation existed between tacrolimus dosage and trough concentration (r(2) = 0.005). Mean individual Bayesian estimates for CL/F and V/F were 26.5 8.2 (SD) L/hr and 399 +/- 185 L, respectively. CL/F was greater in patients with normal liver function. V/F increased with patient weight. CL/F decreased with increasing hematocrit. Based on the derived model, a 70-kg patient with an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level less than 70 U/L would require a tacrolimus dose of 4.7 mg twice daily to achieve a steady-state trough concentration of 10 ng/mL. A 50-kg patient with an AST level greater than 70 U/L would require a dose of 2.6 mg. Marked interindividual variability (43% to 93%) and residual random error (3.3 ng/mL) were observed. Predictions made using the final model were reasonably nonbiased (0.56 ng/mL), but imprecise (4.8 ng/mL). Pharmacokinetic information obtained will assist in tacrolimus dosing; however, further investigation into reasons for the pharmacokinetic variability of tacrolimus is required.

Pore size characterization of mesoporous materials by a thermodynamic approach: A curvature-dependent solid-fluid potential

A thermodynamic analysis of nitrogen adsorption in cylindrical pores of MCM-41 and SBA-15 samples at 77 K is presented within the framework of the Broekhoff and de Boer (BdB) theory. We accounted for the effect of the solid surface curvature on the potential exerted by the pore walls. The developed model is in quantitative agreement with the non-local density functional theory (NLDFT) for pores larger than 2 tun. This modified BdB theory accounting for the Curvature Dependent Potential (CDP-BdB) was applied to determine the pore size distribution (PSD) of a number of MCM-41 and SBA-15 samples on the basis of matching the equilibrium theoretical isotherm against the adsorption branch of the experimental isotherm. In all cases investigated the PSDs determined with the new approach are very similar to those determined with the non-local density functional theory also using the same basis of matching of theoretical isotherm against the experimental adsorption branch. The developed continuum theory is very simple in its utilization, suggesting that CDP-BdB could be used as an alternative tool to obtain PSD for mesoporous solids from the analysis of adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of any sub-critical fluids.

Equilibrium adsorption in cylindrical mesopores: A modified Broekhoff and de boer theory versus density functional theory

This paper presents a thermodynamic analysis of capillary condensation phenomena in cylindrical pores. Here, we modified the Broekhoff and de Boer (BdB) model for cylindrical pores accounting for the effect of the pore radius on the potential exerted by the pore walls. The new approach incorporates the recently published standard nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherm on nonporous silica LiChrospher Si-1000. The developed model is tested against the nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT), and the criterion for this comparison is the condensation/evaporation pressure versus the pore diameter. The quantitative agreement between the NLDFT and the refined version of the BdB theory is ascertained for pores larger than 2 nm. The modified BdB theory was applied to the experimental adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of a number of MCM-41 samples to determine their pore size distributions (PSDs). It was found that the PSDs determined with the new BdB approach coincide with those determined with the NLDFT (also using the experimental adsorption branch). As opposed to the NLDFT, the modified BdB theory is very simple in its utilization and therefore can be used as a convenient tool to obtain PSDs of all mesoporous solids from the analysis of the adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of any subcritical fluids.

Quantification of lean bodyweight

Background: Lean bodyweight (LBW) has been recommended for scaling drug doses. However, the current methods for predicting LBW are inconsistent at extremes of size and could be misleading with respect to interpreting weight-based regimens. Objective: The objective of the present study was to develop a semi-mechanistic model to predict fat-free mass (FFM) from subject characteristics in a population that includes extremes of size. FFM is considered to closely approximate LBW. There are several reference methods for assessing FFM, whereas there are no reference standards for LBW. Patients and methods: A total of 373 patients (168 male, 205 female) were included in the study. These data arose from two populations. Population A (index dataset) contained anthropometric characteristics, FFM estimated by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA - a reference method) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) data. Population B (test dataset) contained the same anthropometric measures and FFM data as population A, but excluded BIA data. The patients in population A had a wide range of age (18-82 years), bodyweight (40.7-216.5kg) and BMI values (17.1-69.9 kg/m(2)). Patients in population B had BMI values of 18.7-38.4 kg/m(2). A two-stage semi-mechanistic model to predict FFM was developed from the demographics from population A. For stage 1 a model was developed to predict impedance and for stage 2 a model that incorporated predicted impedance was used to predict FFM. These two models were combined to provide an overall model to predict FFM from patient characteristics. The developed model for FFM was externally evaluated by predicting into population B. Results: The semi-mechanistic model to predict impedance incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model provides a good predictor of impedance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.78, mean error [ME] = 2.30 x 10(-3), root mean square error [RMSE] = 51.56 [approximately 10% of mean]). The final model for FFM incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model for FFM provided good predictive performance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.93, ME = -0.77, RMSE = 3.33 [approximately 6% of mean]). In addition, the model accurately predicted the FFM of subjects in population B (r(2) = 0.85, ME -0.04, RMSE = 4.39 [approximately 7% of mean]). Conclusions: A semi-mechanistic model has been developed to predict FFM (and therefore LBW) from easily accessible patient characteristics. This model has been prospectively evaluated and shown to have good predictive performance.

Thermal strain in the mushy zone related to hot tearing

A volume-averaged two-phase model addressing the main transport phenomena associated with hot tearing in an isotropic mushy zone during solidification of metallic alloys has recently been presented elsewhere along with a new hot tearing criterion addressing both inadequate melt feeding and excessive deformation at relatively high solid fractions. The viscoplastic deformation in the mushy zone is addressed by a model in which the coherent mush is considered as a porous medium saturated with liquid. The thermal straining of the mush is accounted for by a recently developed model taking into account that there is no thermal strain in the mushy zone at low solid fractions because the dendrites then are free to move in the liquid, and that the thermal strain in the mushy zone tends toward the thermal strain in the fully solidified material when the solid fraction tends toward one. In the present work, the authors determined how variations in the parameters of the constitutive equation for thermal strain influence the hot tearing susceptibility calculated by the criterion. It turns out that varying the parameters in this equation has a significant effect on both liquid pressure drop and viscoplastic strain, which are key parameters in the hot tearing criterion. However, changing the parameters in this constitutive equation will result in changes in the viscoplastic strain and the liquid pressure drop that have opposite effects on the hot tearing susceptibility. The net effect on the hot tearing susceptibility is thus small.

On the modelling of wave breaking and set-up on coral reefs

An extended refraction-diffraction equation [Massel, S.R., 1993. Extended refraction-diffraction equation for surface waves. Coastal Eng. 19, 97-126] has been applied to predict wave transformation and breaking as well as wave-induced set-up on two-dimensional reef profiles of various shapes. A free empirical coefficient alpha in a formula for the average rate of energy dissipation [epsilon(b)] = (alpha rho g omega/8 pi)(root gh/C)(H-3/h) in the modified periodic bore model was found to be a function of the dimensionless parameter F-c0 = (g(1.25)H(0)(0.5)T(2.5))/h(r)(1.75), proposed by Gourlay [Gourlayl M.R., 1994. Wave transformation on a coral reef. Coastal Eng. 23, 17-42]. The applicability of the developed model has been demonstrated for reefs of various shapes subjected to various incident wave conditions. Assuming proposed relationships of the coefficient alpha and F-c0, the model provides results on wave height attenuation and set-up elevation which compare well with experimental data. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.