Understanding and navigating industrial emergence

Industrial emergence is a broad and complex domain, with relevant perspectives ranging in scale from the individual entrepreneur and firm with the business decisions and actions they make to the policies of nations and global patterns of industrialisation. The research described in this article has adopted a holistic approach, based on structured mapping methods, in an attempt to depict and understand the dynamics and patterns of industrial emergence across a broad spectrum from early scientific discovery to large-scale industrialisation. The breadth of scope and application has enabled a framework and set of four tools to be developed that have wide applicability. The utility of the approaches has been demonstrated through case studies and trials in a diverse range of industrial contexts. The adoption of such a broad scope also presents substantial challenges and limitations, with these providing an opportunity for further research. © IMechE 2013.

INFORMATION VISUALIZATION TO SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Information visualization can accelerate perception, provide insight and control, and harness this flood of valuable data to gain a competitive advantage in making business decisions. Although such a statement seems to be obvious, there is a lack in the literature of practical evidence of the benefit of information visualization. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how, for a major European apparel retailer, the visualization of performance information plays a critical role in improving business decisions and in extracting insights from Redio Frequency Idetification (RFID)-based performance measures. In this paper, we identify - based on a literature review - three fundamental managerial functions of information visualization, namely as: a communication medium, a knowledge management means, and a decision-support instrument. Then, we provide - based on real industrial case evidence - how information visualization supports business decision-making. Several examples are provided to evidence the benefit of information visualization through its three identified managerial functions. We find that - depending on the way performance information is shaped, communicated, and made interactive - it not only helps decision making, but also offers a means of knowledge creation, as well as an appropriate communication channel. © 2014 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Formal specification and refinement of a safe train control function

Motivated by the design and development challenges of the BART case study, an approach for developing and analyzing a formal model for reactive systems is presented. The approach makes use of a domain specific language for specifying control algorithms able to satisfy competing properties such as safety and optimality. The domain language, called SPC, offers several key abstractions such as the state, the profile, and the constraint to facilitate problem specification. Using a high-level program transformation system such as HATS being developed at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, specifications in this modelling language can be transformed to ML code. The resulting executable specification can be further refined by applying generic transformations to the abstractions provided by the domain language. Problem dependent transformations utilizing the domain specific knowledge and properties may also be applied. The result is a significantly more efficient implementation which can be used for simulation and gaining deeper insight into design decisions and various control policies. The correctness of transformations can be established using a rewrite-rule based induction theorem prover Rewrite Rule Laboratory developed at the University of New Mexico.

A Model for Deliberation, Action, and Introspection

This thesis investigates the problem of controlling or directing the reasoning and actions of a computer program. The basic approach explored is to view reasoning as a species of action, so that a program might apply its reasoning powers to the task of deciding what inferences to make as well as deciding what other actions to take. A design for the architecture of reasoning programs is proposed. This architecture involves self-consciousness, intentional actions, deliberate adaptations, and a form of decision-making based on dialectical argumentation. A program based on this architecture inspects itself, describes aspects of itself, and uses this self-reference and these self-descriptions in making decisions and taking actions. The program's mental life includes awareness of its own concepts, beliefs, desires, intentions, inferences, actions, and skills. All of these are represented by self-descriptions in a single sort of language, so that the program has access to all of these aspects of itself, and can reason about them in the same terms.

Exploring processes of indeterminate determinism in music composition, programming and improvisation

This portfolio consists of 15 original musical works. Taking the form of electronic and acousmatic music, multimedia, and scores, these chamber works serve as a result of experimentation and improvisation with individually built computer interfaces. The accompanying commentary provides discourse on the conceptual practice of these interfaces becoming a compositional entity that present a multi-interpretative opportunity to explore, engage, and personalise. Following this, the commentary examines the path of creative decisions and musical choices that formed both these interfaces and the resulting musical and visual works. This portfolio is accompanied by interfaces used, transcoded interfacing behavioural information, and documented improvisational findings.

Reasoning with sorted-pareto dominance and other qualitative and partially ordered preferences in soft constraints

In decision making problems where we need to choose a particular decision or alternative from a set of possible choices, we often have some preferences which determine if we prefer one decision over another. When these preferences give us an ordering on the decisions that is complete, then it is easy to choose the best or one of the best decisions. However it often occurs that the preferences relation is partially ordered, and we have no best decision. In this thesis, we look at what happens when we have such a partial order over a set of decisions, in particular when we have multiple orderings on a set of decisions, and we present a framework for qualitative decision making. We look at the different natural notions of optimal decision that occur in this framework, which gives us different optimality classes, and we examine the relationships between these classes. We then look in particular at a qualitative preference relation called Sorted-Pareto Dominance, which is an extension of Pareto Dominance, and we give a semantics for this relation as one that is compatible with any order-preserving mapping of an ordinal preference scale to a numerical one. We apply Sorted-Pareto dominance to a Soft Constraints setting, where we solve problems in which the soft constraints associate qualitative preferences to decisions in a decision problem. We also examine the Sorted-Pareto dominance relation in the context of our qualitative decision making framework, looking at the relevant optimality classes for the Sorted-Pareto case, which gives us classes of decisions that are necessarily optimal, and optimal for some choice of mapping of an ordinal scale to a quantitative one. We provide some empirical analysis of Sorted-Pareto constraints problems and examine the optimality classes that result.

Self-neglect: development and evaluation of a self-neglect (SN-37) measurement instrument

Aim: To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of an instrument for the measurement of self-neglect (SN).Conceptual Framework: An elder self-neglect (ESN) conceptual framework guided the literature review and scale development. The framework has two key dimensions physical/psycho-social and environmental and seven sub dimensions which are representative of the factors that can contribute to intentional and unintentional SN. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted to achieve the research aim. The study was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved the development of the questionnaire content and structure. Phase 2 focused on establishing the psychometric properties of the instrument. Content validity was established by a panel of 8 experts and piloted with 9 health and social care professionals. The instrument was subsequently posted with a stamped addressed envelope to 566 health and social care professionals who met specific eligibility criteria across the four HSE areas. A total of 341 questionnaires were returned, a response rate of 60% and 305 (50%) completed responses were included in exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Item and factor analyses were performed to elicit the instruments underlying factor structure and establish preliminary construct validity. Findings: Item and factor analyses resulted in a logically coherent, 37 items, five factor solution, explaining 55.6% of the cumulative variance. The factors were labelled: ‘Environment’, ‘Social Networks’, ‘Emotional and Behavioural Liability’, ‘Health Avoidance’ and ‘Self-Determinism’. The factor loadings were >0.40 for all items on each of the five subscales. Preliminary construct validity was supported by findings. Conclusion: The main outcome of this research is a 37 item Self-Neglect (SN-37) measurement instrument that was developed by EFA and underpinned by an ESN conceptual framework. Preliminary psychometric evaluation of the instrument is promising. Future work should be directed at establishing the construct and criterion related validity of the instrument.

Home, family and society: women of the Irish landed class, 1860-1914. A Munster case study

The thesis analyses the roles and experiences of female members of the Irish landed class (wives, sisters and daughters of gentry and aristocratic landlords with estates over 1,000 acres) using primary personal material generated by twelve sample families over an important period of decline for the class, and growing rights for women. Notably, it analyses the experiences of relatively unknown married and unmarried women, something previously untried in Irish historiography. It demonstrates that women’s roles were more significant than has been assumed in the existing literature, and leads to a more rounded understanding of the entire class. Four chapters focus on themes which emerge from the sources used and which deal with their roles both inside and outside the home. These chapters argue that: Married and unmarried women were more closely bound to the priorities of their class than their sex, and prioritised male-centred values of family and estate. Male and female duties on the property overlapped, as marriage relationships were more equal than the legislation of the time would suggest. London was the cultural centre for this class. Due to close familial links with Britain (60% of sample daughters married English men) their self-perception was British or English, as well as Irish. With the self-confidence of their class, these women enjoyed cultural and political activities and movements outside the home (sport, travel, fashion, art, writing, philanthropy, (anti-)suffrage, and politics). Far from being pawns in arranged marriages, women were deeply conscious of their marriage decisions and chose socially, financially and personally compatible husbands; they also looked for sexual satisfaction. Childbirth sometimes caused lasting health problems, but pregnancy did not confine wealthy women to an invalid state. In opposition to the stereotypical distant aristocratic mother, these women breastfed their children, and were involved mothers. However, motherhood was not permitted to impinge on the more pressing role of wife

Ireland's knowledge economy policy: beliefs, drivers and prospects

This dissertation critically examines Ireland’s knowledge economy policy, the country’s basis for economic recovery and growth, to enhance future policy decisions and debate. Much has been written internationally on the ‘knowledge economy’ with its emergence closely related to globalisation and technological progression in the 1990s. Since the late 1990s, Irish policy-makers have been firmly committed to positioning Ireland as a leading knowledge economy. Transforming the country’s competitive base to a knowledge economy is pivotal, directly shaping the course of Ireland’s economy and society. Given Ireland’s current economic crisis, limited resources, global competition from leaders in science and technology and growing challenges from emerging economies, a systematic study of Ireland’s major competitive policy is imperative. Above all, this study explores the processes behind the policy and the multiple actors from different institutions who follow and seek to influence decisions. The advocacy coalition framework is used to identify the advocacy coalition operating in the knowledge economy policy subsystem. The theoretical insights of this framework are also combined with other public policy approaches, providing complementary insights into the policy process. The research is framed around three elements - the beliefs underpinning the policy; who is driving the policy; and the prospects of the policy. Primary information is collected by way of semi-structured in-depth interviews with 49 Irish elites (politicians, senior bureaucrats, academics and business leaders) involved in the formation and implementation of the policy. This study finds that a strong advocacy coalition has formed in this policy subsystem whose members are collectively driving the policy. Both exogenous and endogenous forces help frame a common perception of the problems the policy addresses and the solutions it offers. Evidence suggests that this policy is a sustainable option for Ireland’s economic future and the study concludes with policy recommendations for advancing Ireland’s knowledge economy.

Reasoning with imprecise trade-offs in decision making under certainty and uncertainty

In many real world situations, we make decisions in the presence of multiple, often conflicting and non-commensurate objectives. The process of optimizing systematically and simultaneously over a set of objective functions is known as multi-objective optimization. In multi-objective optimization, we have a (possibly exponentially large) set of decisions and each decision has a set of alternatives. Each alternative depends on the state of the world, and is evaluated with respect to a number of criteria. In this thesis, we consider the decision making problems in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the current state of the world, under which the decisions are to be made, is known in advance. In the second scenario, the current state of the world is unknown at the time of making decisions. For decision making under certainty, we consider the framework of multiobjective constraint optimization and focus on extending the algorithms to solve these models to the case where there are additional trade-offs. We focus especially on branch-and-bound algorithms that use a mini-buckets algorithm for generating the upper bound at each node of the search tree (in the context of maximizing values of objectives). Since the size of the guiding upper bound sets can become very large during the search, we introduce efficient methods for reducing these sets, yet still maintaining the upper bound property. We define a formalism for imprecise trade-offs, which allows the decision maker during the elicitation stage, to specify a preference for one multi-objective utility vector over another, and use such preferences to infer other preferences. The induced preference relation then is used to eliminate the dominated utility vectors during the computation. For testing the dominance between multi-objective utility vectors, we present three different approaches. The first is based on a linear programming approach, the second is by use of distance-based algorithm (which uses a measure of the distance between a point and a convex cone); the third approach makes use of a matrix multiplication, which results in much faster dominance checks with respect to the preference relation induced by the trade-offs. Furthermore, we show that our trade-offs approach, which is based on a preference inference technique, can also be given an alternative semantics based on the well known Multi-Attribute Utility Theory. Our comprehensive experimental results on common multi-objective constraint optimization benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed enhancements allow the algorithms to scale up to much larger problems than before. For decision making problems under uncertainty, we describe multi-objective influence diagrams, based on a set of p objectives, where utility values are vectors in Rp, and are typically only partially ordered. These can be solved by a variable elimination algorithm, leading to a set of maximal values of expected utility. If the Pareto ordering is used this set can often be prohibitively large. We consider approximate representations of the Pareto set based on ϵ-coverings, allowing much larger problems to be solved. In addition, we define a method for incorporating user trade-offs, which also greatly improves the efficiency.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). METHODS: Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. RESULTS: Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. CONCLUSION: Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

Resources, experience and perseverance in entrepreneurs' perceived likelihood of success in an emerging economy

This paper introduces new results obtained from a statistical investigation into a 3071-observation data set collected from a Vietnamese nationwide entrepreneurship survey. From established relationships, such factors as preparedness, financial resources and participation in social networks are confirmed to have significant effects on entrepreneurial decisions. Entrepreneurs, both financially constrained and unconstrained, who have a business plan tend to start their entrepreneurial ventures earlier. Also, financial constraints have a profound impact on the entrepreneurial decisions. When perceiving the likelihood of success to be high, an entrepreneur shows the tendency for prompt action on business ideas. But when seeing the risk of prolonging the waiting time to first revenue, a prospective entrepreneur would be more likely to wait for more favorable conditions despite the vagueness of "favorable". Additionally, empirical computations indicate that there is a 41.3% probability that an extant entrepreneur who is generating revenue sees high chance of success. Past work and entrepreneurial experiences also have positive impacts on both the entrepreneurial decisions and perceived chance of success.

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Water quality impacts and palaeohydrogeology in the East Yorkshire Chalk Aquifer, UK

A large hydrochemical data-set for the East Yorkshire Chalk has been assessed. Controls on the distribution of water qualities within this aquifer reflect: water-rock interactions (affecting especially the carbonate system and associated geochemistry); effects of land-use change (especially where the aquifer is unconfined); saline intrusion and aquifer refreshening (including ion exchange effects); and aquifer overexploitation (in the semi-confined and confined zones of the aquifer). Both Sr and I prove useful indicators of groundwater ages, with I/Cl ratios characterising two sources of saline waters. The hydrochemical evidence clearly reveals the importance of both recent management decisions and palaeohydrogeology in determining the evolution and distribution of groundwater salinity within the artesian and confined zones of the aquifer. Waters currently encountered in the aquifer are identified as complex (and potentially dynamic) mixtures between modern recharge waters, modern seawater, and old seawaters which entered the aquifer many millennia ago.

Missing the targets and being misunderstood: Child phonology and interactive problems

Effects of vowel variation on interaction are considered, with particular relevance to their role in conversational breakdown. The effect of speaker knowledge and experience is noted as a variable in developmental progress which must inform profiling decisions, and the need for appropriate taxonomies of speech varieties is emphasized as a precursor to clinical and educational assessments. It is noted, too, that a shared sociolinguistic background between speaker and listener does not always resolve difficulties arising from non-target realizations, casting some doubt on ideas that assessors always possess a guaranteed sense of phonological variability and its effects. Hence, an informed understanding of phonological variation, rather than merely awareness that such variation exists, is advocated.