Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

An Optical Survey for Space Debris on Highly Eccentric MEO Orbits

Optical surveys for space debris in high-altitude orbits have been conducted since more than ten years. Originally these efforts concentrated mainly on the geostationary ring (GEO). Corresponding observation strategies, processing techniques and cataloguing approaches have been developed and successfully applied. The ESA GEO surveys, e.g., resulted in the detection of a significant population of small-size debris and later in the discovery of high area-to-mass ratio objects in GEO-like orbits. The observation scenarios were successively adapted to survey the geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) region; and recently surveys to search for debris in the medium Earth orbit (MEO) region of the global navigation satellite constellations were successfully conducted. Comparably less experience (both, in terms of practical observation and strategy definition) is available for eccentric orbits that (at least partly) are in the MEO region, in particular for the Molniya-type orbits. Several breakup events and deliberate fragmentations are known to have taken place in such orbits. Different survey and follow-up strategies for searching space debris objects in highly-eccentric MEO orbits, and to acquire orbits which are sufficiently accurate to catalogue such objects and to maintain their orbits over longer time spans were developed. Simulations were performed to compare the performance of different survey and cataloguing strategies. Eventually, optical observations were conducted in the framework of an ESA study using ESA’s Space Debris Telescope (ESASDT) the 1-m Zeiss telescope located at the Optical Ground Station (OGS) at the Teide Observatory at Tenerife, Spain. A first series of surveys of Molnjya-type orbits was performed between January and April 2013. During these four months survey observations were performed during nine nights. A basic survey consisted of observing a single geocentric field for 10 minutes. If a faint object was found, follow-up observations were performed during the same night to ensure a save rediscovery of the object during the next nights. Additional follow-up observations to maintain the orbits of these newly discovered faint objects were also acquired with AIUB ́s 1m ZIMLAT telescope in Zimmerwald, Switzerland. Eventually 195 basic surveys were performed during these nine nights corresponding to about 32.5 hours of observations. In total 24 uncorrelated faint objects were discovered and all known catalogue objects in the survey fields were detected. On average one uncorrelated object was found every 80 minutes. Some of these objects show a considerable brightness variation and have a high area-to-mass ratio as determined in the orbit estimation process.

Debris discs around M stars: non-existence versus non-detection

Motivated by the reported dearth of debris discs around M stars, we use survival models to study the occurrence of planetesimal discs around them. These survival models describe a planetesimal disc with a small number of parameters, determine if it may survive a series of dynamical processes and compute the associated infrared excess. For the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite, we demonstrate that the dearth of debris discs around M stars may be attributed to the small semimajor axes generally probed if either: (1) the dust grains behave like blackbodies emitting at a peak wavelength coincident with the observed one; (2) or the grains are hotter than predicted by their blackbody temperatures and emit at peak wavelengths that are shorter than the observed one. At these small distances from the M star, planetesimals are unlikely to survive or persist for time-scales of 300 Myr or longer if the disc is too massive. Conversely, our survival models allow for the existence of a large population of low-mass debris discs that are too faint to be detected with current instruments. We gain further confidence in our interpretation by demonstrating the ability to compute infrared excesses for Sun-like stars that are broadly consistent with reported values in the literature. However, our interpretation becomes less clear and large infrared excesses are allowed if only one of these scenarios holds: (3) the dust grains are hotter than blackbody and predominantly emit at the observed wavelength; (4) or are blackbody in nature and emit at peak wavelengths longer than the observed one. Both scenarios imply that the parent planetesimals reside at larger distances from the star than inferred if the dust grains behaved like blackbodies. In all scenarios, we show that the infrared excesses detected at 22 μm (via WISE) and 70 μm (via Spitzer) from AU Mic are easily reconciled with its young age (12 Myr). Conversely, the existence of the old debris disc (2–8 Gyr) from GJ 581 is due to the large semimajor axes probed by the Herschel PACS instrument. We elucidate the conditions under which stellar wind drag may be neglected when considering dust populations around M stars. The WISE satellite should be capable of detecting debris discs around young M stars with ages ∼10 Myr.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Drilling into debris-rich basal ice at the bottom of the NEEM (Greenland) borehole

After the NEEM (Greenland) deep ice-core drilling was declared terminated with respect to developing stratigraphic climate reconstructions, efforts were turned toward collecting basal ice-sheet debris and, if possible, drilling into the bedrock itself. In 2010, several meters of banded debris-rich ice were obtained under normal ice-drilling operations with the NEEM version of the Hans Tausen (HT) drill, but further penetration was obstructed by a rock in the path of the drill head at 2537.36 m. During short campaigns in 2011 and 2012, attempts were made to penetrate further using various reinforced ice cutters mounted on the HT drill head, tailored to cut through rock. These had some success in penetrating coarse material, but produced severely damaged cutters. Additionally a 51 mm diameter diamond cutting tipped rock drill was adapted to fit the NEEM drill. With this device, several additional meters of core containing subglacial sediments, rocks and rock fragments were collected. With these tools 1.39 m of additional material were obtained during the 2011 field season, and 7.1 m during 2012. Subglacial water refreezing into the newly formed borehole hindered further penetration, and the bedrock interface was not reached before final closure of the NEEM Camp.