Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Crop coefficient and water consumption of eggplant in no-tillage system and conventional soil preparation

Under organic management in Seropédica-RJ, Brazil, using a weighing lysimeter, the crop coefficients (kc), the maximum evapotranspiration and the productivity of eggplant cultivation under two cropping systems (no tillage with straw plus soil with conventional preparation) were determined. A whole randomized layout with two treatments (no tillage and conventional) and five replicates during 134 days of cultivation were adopted. There were no significant differences in the eggplant cultivation in the two cropping systems, with a maximum commercial productivity obtained from 47.42 Mg ha-1 for the no-tillage system, and 47.91 Mg ha-1 for the conventional tillage. The accumulated ETc was 285.15 and 323.44 mm for the no-tillage and conventional, respectively. The crop coefficients value for the phases: 1 - transplanting, flowering, 2 - flowering-fruiting, 3 - fruit- first harvesting, 4- first harvesting of the final crop cycle was 0.83, 0.77, 0.90 and 0.97 in no-tillage system for the respective phases and for the conventional one 0.81, 1.14, 1.17 and 1.05 for the same steps described above.

Bimodal pore distribution on soils under conservation management system for coffee crop

This study aims at detailing bimodal pore distribution by means of water retention curve in an oxidic-gibbsitic Latosol and in a kaolinitic cambisol Latossol under conservation management system of coffee crop. Samples were collected at depths of 20; 40; 80; 120 and 160 cm on coffee trees rows and between rows under oxidic-gibbsitic Latosol (LVd) and kaolinitic cambisol Latossol (LVAd). Water retention curve was determined at matrix potentials (Ψm) -1; -2; -4; -6; -10 kPa obtained from the suction unit; the Ψm of -33; -100; -500; -1,500 kPa were obtained by the Richards extractor, and WP4-T psychrometer was used to determine Ψm -1,500 to -300,000 kPa. The water retention data were adjusted to the double van Genuchten model by nonlinear model procedures of the R 2.12.1 software. Was estimated the model parameter and inflection point slope. The system promoted changes in soil structure and water retention for the conditions evaluated, and both showed bimodal pores distribution, which were stronger in LVd. There was a strong influence of mineralogy gibbsitic in the water retention more negative than Ψm -1500 kPa, reflected in the values of the residual water content.

Desiccation time of the spring sorghum as a predecessor crop for summer soybean and autumn bean in a no-tillage system

ABSTRACT Several authors have been questioned the desiccation interval between the coverage plants and sowing plants for the soybean crop. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the desiccation time of the spring sorghum as a predecessor crop for summer soybean and then for autumn bean, focusing on the straw formation for maintenance of the no-tillage system and to evaluate the yield of soybeans and beans grain, as well as analyzing the interference of sorghum straw in these cultures. The experiment was developed in the Teaching and Research Farm of FE/UNESP located in Ilha Solteira/SP where it was used an experimental design of randomized blocks with five treatments and six repetitions. The treatments consisted of five different intervals between sorghum desiccation and soybean sowing (being with D7 - Drying sorghum seven days before the soybean sowing; and successively for D14, D21, D28 and D35). In order to analyze the results, it was used the Tukey test for a 10% level of significance and the statistical program called Sisvar. The "Cober Crop" sorghum exerted influence on soybean yield but this effect was not lasting for the bean crop in succession to the soybeans.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Examining the interaction of growing crops with local climate using a coupled crop-climate model

This paper examines to what extent crops and their environment should be viewed as a coupled system. Crop impact assessments currently use climate model output offline to drive process-based crop models. However, in regions where local climate is sensitive to land surface conditions more consistent assessments may be produced with the crop model embedded within the land surface scheme of the climate model. Using a recently developed coupled crop–climate model, the sensitivity of local climate, in particular climate variability, to climatically forced variations in crop growth throughout the tropics is examined by comparing climates simulated with dynamic and prescribed seasonal growth of croplands. Interannual variations in land surface properties associated with variations in crop growth and development were found to have significant impacts on near-surface fluxes and climate; for example, growing season temperature variability was increased by up to 40% by the inclusion of dynamic crops. The impact was greatest in dry years where the response of crop growth to soil moisture deficits enhanced the associated warming via a reduction in evaporation. Parts of the Sahel, India, Brazil, and southern Africa were identified where local climate variability is sensitive to variations in crop growth, and where crop yield is sensitive to variations in surface temperature. Therefore, offline seasonal forecasting methodologies in these regions may underestimate crop yield variability. The inclusion of dynamic crops also altered the mean climate of the humid tropics, highlighting the importance of including dynamical vegetation within climate models.

A critical assessment of a desk study comparing crop production systems: The example of the 'system of rice intensification' versus 'best management practice'

When assessing hypotheses, the possibility and consequences of false-positive conclusions should be considered along with the avoidance of false-negative ones. A recent assessment of the system of rice intensification (SRI) by McDonald et al. [McDonald, A.J., Hobbs, P.R., Riha, S.J., 2006. Does the system of rice intensification outperform conventional best management? A synopsis of the empirical record. Field Crops Res. 96, 31-36] provides a good example where this was not done as it was preoccupied with avoiding false-positives only. It concluded, based on a desk study using secondary data assembled selectively from diverse sources and with a 95% level of confidence, that 'best management practices' (BMPs) on average produce 11% higher rice yields than SRI methods, and that, therefore, SRI has little to offer beyond what is already known by scientists.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Crop sequences in no-tillage system: effects on soil fertility and soybean, maize and rice yield

Os resíduos vegetais das culturas, ao se decomporem, alteram os atributos químicos do solo e, como consequência, influenciam a produtividade das culturas em sucessão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os atributos químicos do solo e a produtividade das culturas de soja, milho e arroz, cultivadas no verão, em sucessão a culturas de inverno em semeadura direta. O experimento foi realizado em Jaboticabal-SP (48 ° 18 ' 58 '' W e 21 ° 15 ' 22 '' S), em um Latossolo Vermelho eutrófico. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, no esquema em faixas, com três repetições. Os tratamentos foram constituídos pela combinação de quatro sequências de culturas de verão (monoculturas de milho e soja e rotações soja/milho e arroz/feijão/algodão) com sete culturas de inverno (milho, girassol, nabo forrageiro, milheto, guandu, sorgo e crotalária). Os cultivos iniciaram-se em 2002. Após o manejo das culturas de inverno e antes da semeadura das culturas de verão do ano agrícola 2006/2007, foram coletadas amostras de solo nas camadas de 0-2,5; 2,5-5,0; 5-10; 10-20; e 20-30 cm. Nas amostras de solo, foram determinados: teores de matéria orgânica, pH, teores de P (resina), K, Ca e Mg trocáveis e acidez potencial (H + Al). As sequências de verão rotação soja/milho e milho em monocultura proporcionaram no solo menores teores de matéria orgânica na camada de 0-10 cm e de P do solo na camada de 0-20 cm. Na sequência de verão arroz/feijão/algodão, maiores teores de K foram proporcionados pelas culturas de inverno crotalária e nabo forrageiro, na camada de 0-10 cm, e milheto, na de 0-2,5 cm. Crotalária, milheto, nabo forrageiro e sorgo, cultivados no inverno, proporcionaram maiores teores de matéria orgânica no solo na camada de 0-30 cm. Maiores teores de P no solo foram proporcionados pela crotalária, na camada de 0-2,5 cm, e pelo nabo forrageiro, na de 0-5 cm. Maiores produtividades de soja, como monocultura de verão, foram obtidas após nabo forrageiro e crotalária e, quando em rotação com milho no verão, após nabo forrageiro, crotalária e milheto. Maiores produtividades de milho foram obtidas após nabo forrageiro, milheto e guandu, e menor produtividade de arroz foi obtida após sorgo.

Economic valuation of collecting water to billing in the aspersion irrigated bean in the no tillage system and conventional crop

The law's project n.676/2000 approved the collecting of billing water for farmers in a maximum foreseen value of US$ 0.01 m(-3) of extracted water in the São Paulo State. As the irrigated agriculture is the activity that consumes more water, the farmers profitability can be affected. This work was to analyze the economic impact of billing water in the aspersion irrigated bean crop to consider the system of conventional production and no tillage system in the Paranapanema municipal district, São Paulo State, Brazil. The indicators used to analyze the economic results were unit variable cost, market price and unit profitability. The results showed that for the aspersion irrigated bean crop in conventional system, the participation of cost to the recourse water in cost variable totality was of 2.5% and in no tillage system the participation was of 2.2%. The fall of profitability just the billing water in conventional crop system and in no tillage system was US$ 0.01 kg(-1).

An Innovative Crop-Forage Intercrop System: Early Cycle Soybean Cultivars and Palisadegrass

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phosphorus and potassium budget in the soil-plant system in crop rotations under no-till

Soil management and crop rotations can affect P and K budget in soil, decreasing losses, and increasing fertilizer use efficiency. The P and K budget in the soil-plant system at depths up to 60. cm was studied for different soil managements and crop rotations under no-till for three years in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. The investigated crop rotations were: triticale (X Triticosecale) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus) cropped in autumn-winter; pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), and Sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea) were grown in the spring, as well as an additional treatment with chiseling followed by a fallow period; and soybean (Glycini max, L., Merril) was cropped in the summer. Each year triticale and sunflower were grown in plots and pearl millet, forage sorghum, Sunn hemp and of chisel/fallow in sub-plots. The triticale/millet rotation led to the largest decrease in available P within the 0-0.60. m layer of the soil profile and the largest K increase within the 0-0.05. m layer. Potassium mobility in the soil profile and the increases in the available K content in the 0.40-0.60. m layer were independent of the management system. Crop rotations with or without chiseling are not effective in preventing soil P losses. There is considerable K leaching below 0.60. m, but chiseling and the use of high K accumulating plants as triticale results in lower K losses. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Cover crop termination timing on rice crop production in a no-till system

Measuring shikimic acid accumulation in response to glyphosate applications can be a rapid and accurate way to quantify and predict glyphosate-induced damage to sensitive plants. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the effect of cover crop termination timing by glyphosate application on rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield in a no-till system. A factorial experiment, arranged in a split-plot design, was conducted for 2 yr. Treatments consisted of cover crops (main plots) and timed herbicide applications (subplots) to these cover crops (30, 20, 10, and 0 d before rice planting). There was a decrease in rice yield from 2866 kg ha-1 to 2322 kg ha-1 when the herbicide was applied closer to the rice planting day. Glyphosate application on cover crops increased shikimate concentrations in rice seedlings cultivated under palisade grass (Brachiaria brizantha), signal grass (B. ruziziensis), guinea grass (Panicum maximum), and weedy fallow (spontaneous vegetation) but not under millet (Pennisetum glaucum), which behaved similarly to the control (clean fallow, no glyphosate application). Glyphosate applications in the timing intervals used were associated with stress in the rice plants, and this association increased if cover crops took longer to completely dry and if higher amounts of biomass were produced. Millet, as a cover crop, allowed the highest seedling dry matter for upland rice and the highest rice yield. Our results suggest that using millet as a cover crop, with glyphosate application far from upland rice planting day (10 d or more), was the best option for upland rice under a no-tillage system. © Crop Science Society of America.