Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

New Generation Rollingstock Depot: Case Study Report

This report summarises the findings of a case study on Queensland’s New Generation Rollingstock (NGR) Project carried out as part of SBEnrc Project 2.34 Driving Whole-of-life Efficiencies through BIM and Procurement. This case study is one of three exemplar projects studied in order to leverage academic research in defining indicators for measuring tangible and intangible benefits of Building Information Modelling (BIM) across a project’s life-cycle in infrastructure and buildings. The NGR is an AUD 4.4 billion project carried out under an Availability Payment Public-Private Partnership (PPP) between the Queensland Government and the Bomabardier-led QTECTIC consortium comprising Bombardier Transportation, John Laing, ITOCHU Corporation and Aberdeen Infrastructure Investments. BIM has been deployed on the project from conceptual stages to drive both design and the currently ongoing construction at the Wulkuraka Project Site. This case study sourced information from a series of semi-structured interviews covering a cross-section of key stakeholders on the project. The present research identified 25 benefits gained from implementing BIM processes and tools. Some of the most prominent benefits were those leading to improved outcomes and higher customer satisfaction such as improved communications, data and information management, and coordination. There were also a number of expected benefits for future phases such as: • Improved decision making through the use of BIM for managing assets • Improved models through BIM maturity • Better utilisation of BIM for procurement on similar future projects • New capacity to specify the content of BIM models within contracts There were also three benefits that were expected to have been achieved but were not realised on the NGR project. These were higher construction information quality levels, better alignment in design teams as well as project teams, and capability improvements in measuring the impact of BIM on construction safety. This report includes individual profiles describing each benefit as well as the tools and processes that enabled them. Four key BIM metrics were found to be currently in use and six more were identified as potential metrics for the future. This case study also provides insights into challenges associated with implementing BIM on a project of the size and complexity of the NGR. Procurement aspects and lessons learned for managers are also highlighted, including a list of recommendations for developing a framework to assess the benefits of BIM across the project life-cycle.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Difference covering arrays and pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares

A pair of Latin squares, A and B, of order n, is said to be pseudo-orthogonal if each symbol in A is paired with every symbol in B precisely once, except for one symbol with which it is paired twice and one symbol with which it is not paired at all. A set of t Latin squares, of order n, are said to be mutually pseudo-orthogonal if they are pairwise pseudo-orthogonal. A special class of pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares are the mutually nearly orthogonal Latin squares (MNOLS) first discussed in 2002, with general constructions given in 2007. In this paper we develop row complete MNOLS from difference covering arrays. We will use this connection to settle the spectrum question for sets of 3 mutually pseudo-orthogonal Latin squares of even order, for all but the order 146.

Lagöversättning som process och produkt : Revideringar och institutioner vid lagöversättning till svenska i Finland

The thesis studies the translation process for the laws of Finland as they are translated from Finnish into Swedish. The focus is on revision practices, norms and workplace procedures. The translation process studied covers three institutions and four revisions. In three separate studies the translation process is analyzed from the perspective of the translations, the institutions and the actors. The general theoretical framework is Descriptive Translation Studies. For the analysis of revisions made in versions of the Swedish translation of Finnish laws, a model is developed covering five grammatical categories (textual revisions, syntactic revisions, lexical revisions, morphological revisions and content revisions) and four norms (legal adequacy, correct translation, correct language and readability). A separate questionnaire-based study was carried out with translators and revisers at the three institutions. The results show that the number of revisions does not decrease during the translation process, and no division of labour can be seen at the different stages. This is somewhat surprising if the revision process is regarded as one of quality control. Instead, all revisers make revisions on every level of the text. Further, the revisions do not necessarily imply errors in the translations but are often the result of revisers following different norms for legal translation. The informal structure of the institutions and its impact on communication, visibility and workplace practices was studied from the perspective of organization theory. The results show weaknesses in the communicative situation, which affect the co-operation both between institutions and individuals. Individual attitudes towards norms and their relative authority also vary, in the sense that revisers largely prioritize legal adequacy whereas translators give linguistic norms a higher value. Further, multi-professional teamwork in the institutions studied shows a kind of teamwork based on individuals and institutions doing specific tasks with only little contact with others. This shows that the established definitions of teamwork, with people co-working in close contact with each other, cannot directly be applied to the workplace procedures in the translation process studied. Three new concepts are introduced: flerstegsrevidering (multi-stage revision), revideringskedja (revision chain) and normsyn (norm attitude). The study seeks to make a contribution to our knowledge of legal translation, translation processes, institutional translation, revision practices and translation norms for legal translation. Keywords: legal translation, translation of laws, institutional translation, revision, revision practices, norms, teamwork, organizational informal structure, translation process, translation sociology, multilingual.

Effect of changes in hook pattern and size on catch rate, hooking location, injury and bleeding for a number of tropical reef fish species

The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

Spatial subdivision among assemblages of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson (Pisces: Scombridae) across northern Australia: implications for fisheries management

Aim: This study investigated the use of stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of narrow-barred Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, as indicators of population structure across Australia. Location: Samples were collected from 25 locations extending from the lower west coast of Western Australia (30°), across northern Australian waters, and to the east coast of Australia (18°) covering a coastline length of approximately 9500 km, including samples from Indonesia. Methods: The stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of S. commerson were analysed using standard mass spectrometric techniques. The isotope ratios across northern Australian subregions were subjected to an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to define subregions. Isotope ratios within each of the subregions were compared to assess population structure across Australia. Results: Cluster analysis separated samples into four subregions: central Western Australia, north Western Australia, northern Australia and the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastern Australia. Isotope signatures for fish from a number of sampling sites from across Australia and Indonesia were significantly different, indicating population separation. No significant differences were found in otolith isotope ratios between sampling times (no temporal variation). Main conclusions: Significant differences in the isotopic signatures of S. commerson demonstrate that there is unlikely to be any substantial movement of fish among these spatially discrete adult assemblages. The lack of temporal variation among otolith isotope ratios indicates that S. commerson populations do not undergo longshore spatial shifts in distribution during their life history. The temporal persistence of spatially explicit stable isotopic signatures indicates that, at these spatial scales, the population units sampled comprise functionally distinct management units or separate ‘stocks’ for many of the purposes of fisheries management. The spatial subdivision evident among populations of S. commerson across northern and western Australia indicates that it may be advantageous to consider S. commerson population dynamics and fisheries management from a metapopulation perspective (at least at the regional level).

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent thirty years little progress has been made - due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. This paper resumes the debate by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to assure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of twelve construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Sensory Systems in Sawfishes. 1. The Ampullae of Lorenzini

The distribution and density of the ampullary electroreceptors in the skin of elasmobranchs are influenced by the phylogeny and ecology of a species. Sensory maps were created for 4 species of pristid sawfish. Their ampullary pores were separated into pore fields based on their innervation and cluster formation. Ventrally, ampullary pores are located in 6 areas (5 in Pristis microdon), covering the rostrum and head to the gills. Dorsally, pores are located in 4 areas (3 in P. microdon), which cover the rostrum, head and may extend slightly onto the pectoral fins. In all species, the highest number of pores is found on the dorsal and ventral sides of the rostrum. The high densities of pores along the rostrum combined with the low densities around the mouth could indicate that sawfish use their rostrum to stun their prey before ingesting it, but this hypothesis remains to be tested. The directions of ampullary canals on the ventral side of the rostrum are species specific. P. microdon possesses the highest number of ampullary pores, which indicates that amongst the study species this species is an electroreception specialist. As such, juvenile P. microdon inhabit low-visibility freshwater habitats.

On the number of two-line and three-line latin rectangles - an alternative approach

The number of two-line and three-line Latin rectangles is obtained by recursive methods in a setting slightly more general than usually considered. We show how this leads to a generalisation which is proved elsewhere.

Estimation of local forest attributes, utilizing two-phase sampling and auxiliary data

This thesis examines the feasibility of a forest inventory method based on two-phase sampling in estimating forest attributes at the stand or substand levels for forest management purposes. The method is based on multi-source forest inventory combining auxiliary data consisting of remote sensing imagery or other geographic information and field measurements. Auxiliary data are utilized as first-phase data for covering all inventory units. Various methods were examined for improving the accuracy of the forest estimates. Pre-processing of auxiliary data in the form of correcting the spectral properties of aerial imagery was examined (I), as was the selection of aerial image features for estimating forest attributes (II). Various spatial units were compared for extracting image features in a remote sensing aided forest inventory utilizing very high resolution imagery (III). A number of data sources were combined and different weighting procedures were tested in estimating forest attributes (IV, V). Correction of the spectral properties of aerial images proved to be a straightforward and advantageous method for improving the correlation between the image features and the measured forest attributes. Testing different image features that can be extracted from aerial photographs (and other very high resolution images) showed that the images contain a wealth of relevant information that can be extracted only by utilizing the spatial organization of the image pixel values. Furthermore, careful selection of image features for the inventory task generally gives better results than inputting all extractable features to the estimation procedure. When the spatial units for extracting very high resolution image features were examined, an approach based on image segmentation generally showed advantages compared with a traditional sample plot-based approach. Combining several data sources resulted in more accurate estimates than any of the individual data sources alone. The best combined estimate can be derived by weighting the estimates produced by the individual data sources by the inverse values of their mean square errors. Despite the fact that the plot-level estimation accuracy in two-phase sampling inventory can be improved in many ways, the accuracy of forest estimates based mainly on single-view satellite and aerial imagery is a relatively poor basis for making stand-level management decisions.