Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

CD4+ T-cell count increase in HIV-1-infected patients with suppressed viral load within 1 year after start of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.

CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

CD4(+) T cell count decreases by ethnicity among untreated patients with HIV infection in South Africa and Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the decrease in CD4(+) cell counts in untreated patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are important for patient care and public health. We analyzed CD4(+) cell count decreases in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We used mixed-effects models and joint models that allowed for the correlation between CD4(+) cell count decreases and survival and stratified analyses by the initial cell count (50-199, 200-349, 350-499, and 500-750 cells/microL). Results are presented as the mean decrease in CD4(+) cell count with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the first year after the initial CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: A total of 784 South African (629 nonwhite) and 2030 Swiss (218 nonwhite) patients with HIV infection contributed 13,388 CD4(+) cell counts. Decreases in CD4(+) cell count were steeper in white patients, patients with higher initial CD4(+) cell counts, and older patients. Decreases ranged from a mean of 38 cells/microL (95% CI, 24-54 cells/microL) in nonwhite patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 15-39 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 200-349 cells/microL to a mean of 210 cells/microL (95% CI, 143-268 cells/microL) in white patients in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort > or =40 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 500-750 cells/microL. CONCLUSIONS: Among both patients from Switzerland and patients from South Africa, CD4(+) cell count decreases were greater in white patients with HIV infection than they were in nonwhite patients with HIV infection.

Accuracy of WHO CD4 cell count criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To examine the accuracy of the World Health Organization immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: Analysis of 10 treatment programmes in Africa and South America that monitor both CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 viral load. Adult patients with at least two CD4 counts and viral load measurements between month 6 and 18 after starting a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen were included. WHO immunological criteria include CD4 counts persistently <100 cells/microl, a fall below the baseline CD4 count, or a fall of >50% from the peak value. Virological failure was defined as two measurements > or =10 0000 copies/ml (higher threshold) or > or =500 copies/ml (lower threshold). Measures of accuracy with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2009 patients were included. During 1856 person-years of follow up 63 patients met the immunological criteria and 35 patients (higher threshold) and 95 patients (lower threshold) met the virological criteria. Sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 17.1% (6.6-33.6%) for the higher and 12.6% (6.7-21.0%) for the lower threshold. Corresponding results for specificity were 97.1% (96.3-97.8%) and 97.3% (96.5-98.0%), for positive predictive value 9.5% (3.6-19.6%) and 19.0% (10.2-30.9%) and for negative predictive value 98.5% (97.9-99.0%) and 95.7% (94.7-96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The positive predictive value of the WHO immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings is poor, but the negative predictive value is high. Immunological criteria are more appropriate for ruling out than for ruling in virological failure in resource-limited settings.

Independent association of sleep quality, fatigue, and vital exhaustion with platelet count in patients with a previous venous thromboembolic event

Elevated platelet count might reflect increased inflammation as an etiological factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Poor sleep, fatigue, and exhaustion are all associated with inflammation and are also common sequelae of chronic psychological stress that previously predicted increased risk of VTE. We hypothesized that platelet count would be high in patients with VTE who sleep poorly and who are fatigued and exhausted. We investigated 205 patients scheduled for thrombophilia work-up > or =3 months after an objectively diagnosed venous thromboembolic event. They completed the Jenkins Sleep Questionnaire to rate subjective sleep quality and the short forms of the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory and Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire. Platelet count was determined by a mechanical Coulter counter. Analyses controlled for age, sex, body mass index, time since the index event, and medication. After taking into account these covariates, poorer sleep quality (p = 0.001; DeltaR(2)= 0.046), high fatigue (p = 0.008; DeltaR(2)= 0.032), and vital exhaustion (p = 0.050; DeltaR(2)= 0.017) were all associated with elevated platelet count. In addition, high level of fatigue mediated the relationship between poor sleep quality and elevated platelet count (p = 0.046). Poor sleep quality, high levels of fatigue, and vital exhaustion were identified as correlates of an elevated platelet count in patients with a previous episode of VTE. Given the emerging role of inflammatory processes in VTE, the findings suggest a mechanism through which behavioral and chronic psychological stressors might contribute to incident and recurrent venous thrombotic events.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

OBJECTIVES: CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death. METHODS: Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible. RESULTS: Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/microl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.

CD4 count slope and mortality in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information. METHODS We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models. RESULTS About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was <400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with >100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a >25% increase over 6 months with a >25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at <100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing >350 with <100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20). CONCLUSIONS Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

The Incidence of AIDS-Defining Illnesses at a Current CD4 Count >=200 Cells/ L in the Post-Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Era

Background. Few studies consider the incidence of individual AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) at higher CD4 counts, relevant on a population level for monitoring and resource allocation. Methods. Individuals from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) aged ≥14 years with ≥1 CD4 count of ≥200 µL between 1998 and 2010 were included. Incidence rates (per 1000 person-years of follow-up [PYFU]) were calculated for each ADI within different CD4 strata; Poisson regression, using generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors, was used to model rates of ADIs with current CD4 ≥500/µL. Results. A total of 12 135 ADIs occurred at a CD4 count of ≥200 cells/µL among 207 539 persons with 1 154 803 PYFU. Incidence rates declined from 20.5 per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.0–21.1 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 200–349 cells/µL to 4.1 per 1000 PYFU (95% CI, 3.6–4.6 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 ≥ 1000 cells/µL. Persons with a current CD4 of 500–749 cells/µL had a significantly higher rate of ADIs (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10–1.32), whereas those with a current CD4 of ≥1000 cells/µL had a similar rate (aIRR, 0.92; 95% CI, .79–1.07), compared to a current CD4 of 750–999 cells/µL. Results were consistent in persons with high or low viral load. Findings were stronger for malignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.25–1.86) than for nonmalignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01–1.25), comparing persons with a current CD4 of 500–749 cells/µL to 750–999 cells/µL. Discussion. The incidence of ADIs was higher in individuals with a current CD4 count of 500–749 cells/µL compared to those with a CD4 count of 750–999 cells/µL, but did not decrease further at higher CD4 counts. Results were similar in patients virologically suppressed on combination antiretroviral therapy, suggesting that immune reconstitution is not complete until the CD4 increases to >750 cells/µL.

White blood cell count and mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiovascular diseases, the prognostic value of an elevated white blood cell (WBC) count, a marker of inflammation and hypercoagulability, is uncertain in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). We therefore sought to assess the prognostic impact of the WBC in a large, state-wide retrospective cohort of patients with PE. We evaluated 14,228 patient discharges with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the independent association between WBC count levels at the time of presentation and mortality and hospital readmission within 30 days, adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics. Patients with an admission WBC count <5.0, 5.0-7.8, 7.9-9.8, 9.9-12.6, and >12.6 × 10(9) /L had a cumulative 30-day mortality of 10.9%, 6.2%, 5.4%, 8.3%, and 16.3% (P < 0.001), and a readmission rate of 17.6%, 11.9%, 10.9%, 11.5%, and 15.0%, respectively (P < 0.001). Compared with patients with a WBC count 7.9-9.8 × 10(9) /L, adjusted odds of 30-day mortality were significantly greater for patients with a WBC count <5.0 × 10(9) /L (odds ratio [OR] 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-2.03), 9.9-12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26-1.91), or >12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.83-2.69), respectively. The adjusted odds of readmission were also significantly increased for patients with a WBC count <5.0 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.07-1.68) or >12.6 × 10(9) /L (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.10-1.51). In patients presenting with PE, WBC count is an independent predictor of short-term mortality and hospital readmission.

Platelet count and outcome in patients with acute venous thromboembolism

The relationship between platelet count and outcome in patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) has not been consistently explored. RIETE is an ongoing registry of consecutive patients with acute VTE. We categorised patients as having very low- (<80,000/µl), low- (80,000/µl to 150,000/µl), normal- (150,000/µl to 300,000/µl), high- (300,000/µl to 450,000/µl), or very high (>450,000/µl) platelet count at baseline, and compared their three-month outcome. As of October 2012, 43,078 patients had been enrolled in RIETE: 21,319 presenting with pulmonary embolism and 21,759 with deep-vein thrombosis. In all, 502 patients (1.2%) had very low-; 5,472 (13%) low-; 28,386 (66%) normal-; 7,157 (17%) high-; and 1,561 (3.6%) very high platelet count. During the three-month study period, the recurrence rate was: 2.8%, 2.2%, 1.8%, 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively; the rate of major bleeding: 5.8%, 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.3% and 4.6%, respectively; the rate of fatal bleeding: 2.0%, 0.9%, 0.3%, 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively; and the mortality rate: 29%, 11%, 6.5%, 8.8% and 14%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, patients with very low-, low-, high- or very high platelet count had an increased risk for major bleeding (odds ratio [OR]: 2.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.85-3.95; 1.43 [1.18-1.72]; 1.23 [1.03-1.47]; and 2.13 [1.65-2.75]) and fatal bleeding (OR: 3.70 [1.92-7.16], 2.10 [1.48-2.97], 1.29 [0.88-1.90] and 2.49 [1.49-4.15]) compared with those with normal count. In conclusion, we found a U-shaped relationship between platelet count and the three-month rate of major bleeding and fatal bleeding in patients with VTE.

Reduced neutrophil count in people of African descent is due to a regulatory variant in the Duffy antigen receptor for chemokines gene.

Persistently low white blood cell count (WBC) and neutrophil count is a well-described phenomenon in persons of African ancestry, whose etiology remains unknown. We recently used admixture mapping to identify an approximately 1-megabase region on chromosome 1, where ancestry status (African or European) almost entirely accounted for the difference in WBC between African Americans and European Americans. To identify the specific genetic change responsible for this association, we analyzed genotype and phenotype data from 6,005 African Americans from the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study, and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. We demonstrate that the causal variant must be at least 91% different in frequency between West Africans and European Americans. An excellent candidate is the Duffy Null polymorphism (SNP rs2814778 at chromosome 1q23.2), which is the only polymorphism in the region known to be so differentiated in frequency and is already known to protect against Plasmodium vivax malaria. We confirm that rs2814778 is predictive of WBC and neutrophil count in African Americans above beyond the previously described admixture association (P = 3.8 x 10(-5)), establishing a novel phenotype for this genetic variant.

Impact of changes in haematocrit level and platelet count on thromboelastometry parameters

INTRODUCTION To what extent haematocrit levels (Hct) and platelet counts (PLT) influence the measurement of parameters of thromboelastometry when assessed with the ROTEM® device is unclear. We investigated to what extent thromboelastometry measurements depend on Hct and PLT. MATERIALS AND METHODS Whole blood samples were taken for in-vitro preparations of mixtures with three different levels of PLT and a varying Hct. Maximum clot firmness (MCF), clotting time (CT), clot formation time (CFT) and alpha angle (α) for INTEM, EXTEM, FIBTEM and APTEM was recorded. RESULTS Measurements depended substantially on Hct and PLT. MCF readings were systematically lower with increasing Hct (0.2 vs. 0.4: -7.8 (-8.3 to -7.2); p<0.001, 0.2 vs. 0.55: -14.5 (-17.3 to -14.3); p<0.001) but higher with increasing PLT (50 vs. 125×10(9)/l: 8.2 (4.2 to 12.3); p=0.005, 50 vs. 250×10(9)/l: 12.0 (7.2 to 16.8); p=0.002). CT readings were systematically higher with increasing Hct (0.2 vs. 0.4: 9.2 (6.2 to 12.1); p=0.001, 0.2 vs. 0.55: 38.2 (21.5 to 54.9); p=0.003) while increasing PLT had no influence. CFT readings were also systematically higher with increasing Hct (0.2 vs. 0.4: 83.8 (40.2 to 127.6); p=0.006, 0.2 vs. 0.55: 226.2 (110.7 to 341.7); p=0.006) but systematically lower with increasing PLT (50 vs. 125×10(9)/l: -144.0 (-272.3 to -15.6); p=0.036, 50 vs. 250×10(9)/l: -189.2 (-330.4 to -48.0); p=0.02); readings of the alpha angle showed a similar pattern. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that readings of thromboelastometry parameters need to be adjusted by Hct and PLT to avoid potential confounding and miss-interpretations in clinical practice.