Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score

The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a frequently used scoring rule. In contrast with many other scoring rules, the CRPS evaluates cumulative distribution functions. An ensemble of forecasts can easily be converted into a piecewise constant cumulative distribution function with steps at the ensemble members. This renders the CRPS a convenient scoring rule for the evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles, obviating the need for sophisticated ensemble model output statistics or dressing methods prior to evaluation. In this article, a relation between the CRPS score and the quantile score is established. The evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles using the CRPS is discussed in this light. It is shown that latent in this evaluation is an interpretation of the ensemble as quantiles but with non-uniform levels. This needs to be taken into account if the ensemble is evaluated further, for example with rank histograms.

Description and process evaluation of pharmacists’ interventions in a pharmacist-led information technology-enabled multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial for reducing medication errors in general practice (PINCER trial)

Objective To undertake a process evaluation of pharmacists' recommendations arising in the context of a complex IT-enabled pharmacist-delivered randomised controlled trial (PINCER trial) to reduce the risk of hazardous medicines management in general practices. Methods PINCER pharmacists manually recorded patients’ demographics, details of interventions recommended, actions undertaken by practice staff and time taken to manage individual cases of hazardous medicines management. Data were coded and double entered into SPSS v15, and then summarised using percentages for categorical data (with 95% CI) and, as appropriate, means (SD) or medians (IQR) for continuous data. Key findings Pharmacists spent a median of 20 minutes (IQR 10, 30) reviewing medical records, recommending interventions and completing actions in each case of hazardous medicines management. Pharmacists judged 72% (95%CI 70, 74) (1463/2026) of cases of hazardous medicines management to be clinically relevant. Pharmacists recommended 2105 interventions in 74% (95%CI 73, 76) (1516/2038) of cases and 1685 actions were taken in 61% (95%CI 59, 63) (1246/2038) of cases; 66% (95%CI 64, 68) (1383/2105) of interventions recommended by pharmacists were completed and 5% (95%CI 4, 6) (104/2105) of recommendations were accepted by general practitioners (GPs), but not completed at the end of the pharmacists’ placement; the remaining recommendations were rejected or considered not relevant by GPs. Conclusions The outcome measures were used to target pharmacist activity in general practice towards patients at risk from hazardous medicines management. Recommendations from trained PINCER pharmacists were found to be broadly acceptable to GPs and led to ameliorative action in the majority of cases. It seems likely that the approach used by the PINCER pharmacists could be employed by other practice pharmacists following appropriate training.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a−1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a−1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a−1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a−1; range 13–20 Tg a−1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a−1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to −0.62 (−0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, −0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and −0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. However, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

In Vitro Evaluation of Acellular Dermal Matrix as a Three-Dimensional Scaffold for Gingival Fibroblasts Seeding

Background: Tissue engineering principles could improve the incorporation of acellular dermal matrix (ADM). The aim of this study is to verify if ADM is a suitable three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts and cancerous cells ingrowth, and also if cultured medium conditioned in ADM affect cellular behavior. Methods: Canine gingival fibroblasts (CGF), human gingival fibroblasts (HGF), and murine melanoma cell line (B16F10) were seeded on ADM for up to 14 days. The following parameters were assessed: morphology and distribution of CGF, HGF, and B16F10; CGF and HGF viability; and the effect of ADM conditioned medium (CM) on CGF viability. Results: Epifluorescence revealed that CGF were unevenly distributed on the ADM surface, showing no increase in cell number over the periods of study; HGF formed a monolayer on the ADM surface in a higher number at 14 days (P<0.05); B16F10 exhibited an increase in cell number within 7 days (P<0.05), and were mainly arranged in cell aggregates on the ADM, forming a continuous layer at 14 days. A higher percentage of cells on the ADM surface (P<0.05) compared to inside was observed for all cell types. 3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MU) values indicated higher cell viability in samples cultured with HGF compared to CGF (P=0.024). A significantly lower cell viability for CGF grown in CM compared to cells grown in non-CM was observed at 48 and 72 hours (P<0.05). Conclusions: ADM is not suitable as a three-dimensional matrix for gingival fibroblasts ingrowth. Gingival fibroblasts and highly proliferative cells as B16F10 can only be superficially located on ADM, and CGF are negatively affected by culture medium conditioned in ADM, reducing its viability. J Periodontol 2011;82:293-301.

Evaluation of Low Intensity Laser Therapy In Myofascial Pain Syndrome

Limited studies have demonstrated that low intensity laser therapy (LILT) may have a therapeutic effect on the treatment of myofascial pain syndrome (MPS). Sixty (60) patients with MPS and having one active trigger point in the anterior masseter and anterior temporal muscles were selected and assigned randomly to six groups (n=10): Groups I to III were treated with GaAIAS (780 nm) laser, applied in continuous mode and in a meticulous way, twice a week, for four weeks. Energy was set to 25 J/cm(2), 60 J/cm2 and 105 J/cm2, respectively. Groups IV to VI were treated with placebo applications, simulating the same parameters as the treated groups. Pain scores were assessed just before, then immediately after the fourth application, immediately after the eighth application, at 15 days and one month following treatment. A significant pain reduction was observed over time (p<0.001). The analgesic effect of the LILT was similar to the placebo groups. Using the parameters described in this experiment, LILT was effective in reducing pain experienced by patients with myofascial pain syndrome. Thus, it was not possible to establish a treatment protocol. Analyzing the analgesic effect of LILT suggests it as a possible treatment of MPS and may help to establish a clinical protocol for this therapeutic modality.

A modified rat model of neonatal anoxia: Development and evaluation by pulseoximetry, arterial gasometry and Fos immunoreactivity

Neonatal anoxia is a worldwide clinical problem that has serious and lasting consequences. The diversity of models does not allow complete reproducibility, so a standardized model is needed. In this study, we developed a rat model of neonatal anoxia that utilizes a semi-hermetic system suitable for oxygen deprivation. The validity of this model was confirmed using pulse oximetry, arterial gasometry, observation of skin color and behavior and analysis of Fos immunoreactivity in brain regions that function in respiratory control. For these experiments, 87 male albino neonate rats (Rattus norvegicus, lineage Wistar) aged approximate 30 postnatal hours were divided into anoxia and control groups. The pups were kept in an euthanasia polycarbonate chamber at 36 +/- 1 degrees C, with continuous 100% nitrogen gas flow at 3 L/min and 101.7 kPa for 25 min. The peripheral arterial oxygen saturation of the anoxia group decreased 75% from its initial value. Decreased pH and partial pressure of oxygen and increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide were observed in this group, indicating metabolic acidosis, hypoxia and hypercapnia. respectively. Analysis of neuronal activation showed Fos immunoreactivity in the solitary tract nucleus, the lateral reticular nucleus and the area postrema, confirming that those conditions activated areas related to respiratory control in the nervous system. Therefore, the proposed model of neonatal anoxia allows standardization and precise control of the anoxic condition, which should be of great value in indentifying both the mechanisms underlying neonatal anoxia and novel therapeutic strategies to combat or prevent this widespread public health problem. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of dental pulp repair using low level laser therapy (688 nm and 785 nm) morphologic study in capuchin monkeys

The aim of this study was to evaluate the hypothesis that low-level laser therapy (LLLT) 688 nm and 785 nm accelerate dentin barrier formation and repair process after traumatic pulp exposure. The sample consisted of 45 premolars of capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) with pulp exposure Class V cavities. All premolars were treated with calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)(2)), divided in groups of 15 teeth each, and analyzed on 7(th), 25(th), and 60(th) day. Group GI - only Ca(OH)(2), GIF- laser 688 nm, and GIII - laser 785 nm. Laser beam was used in single and punctual dose with the parameters: continuous, 688 nm and 785 nm wavelength, tip`s area of 0.00785 cm(2), power 50 mW, application time 20 s, dose 255 J/cm(2), energy 2 J. Teeth were capped with Ca(OH)(2), Ca(OH)(2) cement and restored with amalgam. All groups presented pulp repair. On 25(th) day the thickness of the formed dentin barrier was different between the groups GI and GII (p < 0.05) and between groups GI and GIII (p < 0.01). On 60(th) day there was difference between GI and GIII (p < 0.01). It may be concluded that, LLLT 688 nm and 785 nm accelerated dentin barrier formation and consequently pulp repair process, with best results using infrared laser 785 nm. (c) 2009 by Astro Ltd. Published exclusively by WLLEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA

QoS evaluation of Bandwidth Schedulers in IPTV Networks Offered SRD Fluid Video Traffic

Internet protocol TV (IPTV) is predicted to be the key technology winner in the future. Efforts to accelerate the deployment of IPTV centralized model which is combined of VHO, encoders, controller, access network and Home network. Regardless of whether the network is delivering live TV, VOD, or Time-shift TV, all content and network traffic resulting from subscriber requests must traverse the entire network from the super-headend all the way to each subscriber's Set-Top Box (STB). IPTV services require very stringent QoS guarantees When IPTV traffic shares the network resources with other traffic like data and voice, how to ensure their QoS and efficiently utilize the network resources is a key and challenging issue. For QoS measured in the network-centric terms of delay jitter, packet losses and bounds on delay. The main focus of this thesis is on the optimized bandwidth allocation and smooth data transmission. The proposed traffic model for smooth delivering video service IPTV network with its QoS performance evaluation. According to Maglaris et al [5] first, analyze the coding bit rate of a single video source. Various statistical quantities are derived from bit rate data collected with a conditional replenishment inter frame coding scheme. Two correlated Markov process models (one in discrete time and one in continuous time) are shown to fit the experimental data and are used to model the input rates of several independent sources into a statistical multiplexer. Preventive control mechanism which is to be including CAC, traffic policing used for traffic control. QoS has been evaluated of common bandwidth scheduler( FIFO) by use fluid models with Markovian queuing method and analysis the result by using simulator and analytically, Which is measured the performance of the packet loss, overflow and mean waiting time among the network users.

Characterization and evaluation of the impact of feed management on the effluents of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) culture

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of fatigue behavior on repaired carbon fiber/epoxy composites

The continuous use of structural polymer composites in aeronautical industry has required the development of repairing techniques of damages found in different types of laminates. The most usually adopted procedure to investigate the repair of composite laminates has been by repairing damages simulated in laminated composite specimens. This work shows the influence of structural repair technique on mechanical properties of a typical carbon fiber/epoxy laminate used in aerospace industry. When analyzed by tensile test, the laminates with and without repair present tensile strength values of 670 and 892 MPa, respectively, and tensile modulus of 53.0 and 67.2 GPa, respectively. By this result, it is possible to observe a decrease of the measured mechanical properties of the repaired composites. When submitted to fatigue test, it is observed that in loads higher than 250 MPa, this laminate presents a low life cycle (lower than 400,000 cycles). The fatigue performance of both laminates is comparable, but the non-repaired laminate presented higher tensile and fatigue resistance when compared with the repaired laminate.

Evaluation of strip rolling directly from the semi-solid state

defect metal alloy strip when thixorolling directly from the semi-solid state. To facilitate the study lead/tin alloys were chosen for their relatively low operating temperature. The objective is to extrapolate these findings to the higher temperature aluminium, alloys. Three alloys (70%Pb30%Sn, 60%Pb-40%Sn, 50%Pb-50%wtSn) were used particularly to study the influence of the solidification interval. The equipment consists of a two roll mill arranged as an upper and lower roller, where both rollers are driven at a controlled speed. The lower roller is fed with semi solid alloy through a ceramic nozzle attached to the lower end of a cooling slope. Several types of nozzle and their position at the roller were tested. This produced different solidifications and consequently different finished strip. The alloys were first cast and then poured onto the cooling slope through a tundish in order to create a continuous laminar flow of slurry and uniformity of metal strip quality. The pouring was tested at different positions along the slope. The cooling slope was coated with colloidal graphite to promote a smooth slurry flow and avoid the problem of adherence and premature solidification. The metallic slurry not only cools along the slope but is also initially super-cooled to a mush by the lower roller whilst at room temperatures, thus enabling thixorolling. It was also found that the nozzle position could be adjusted to enable the upper roller to also contribute to the solidification of the metallic slurry. However the rollers and the cooling slope naturally heat up. Temperature distribution in these zones was analysed by means of three thermocouples positioned along the cooling slope and a fourth in the base of the semi solid pool within the nozzle. The objective being to design an optimum pouring and cooling system. The formed strip was cooled down to room temperature with a shower of water. Microstructures of the thixorolling process were analysed. The differences in solidification conditions resulted in differing qualities of finished strip and corresponding defect types, all of which are a serious quality issue for the rolled product.

Continuous peritoneal dialysis compared with daily hemodialysis in patients with acute kidney injury

Background: In some parts of the world, peritoneal dialysis is widely used for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in acute kidney injury (AKI), despite concerns about its inadequacy. It has been replaced in recent years by hemodialysis and, most recently, by continuous venovenous therapies. We performed a prospective study to determine the effect of continuous peritoneal dialysis (CPD), as compared with daily hemodialysis (dHD), on survival among patients with AKI.Methods: A total of 120 patients with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) were assigned to receive CPD or dHD in a tertiary-care university hospital. The primary endpoint was hospital survival rate; renal function recovery and metabolic, acid-base, and fluid controls were secondary endpoints.Results: of the 120 patients, 60 were treated with CPD (G1) and 60 with dHD (G2). The two groups were similar at the start of RRT with respect to age (64.2 +/- 19.8 years vs 62.5 +/- 21.2 years), sex (men: 72% vs 66%), sepsis (42% vs 47%), shock (61% vs 63%), severity of AKI [Acute Tubular Necrosis Individual Severity Score (ATNISS): 0.68 +/- 0.2 vs 0.66 +/- 0.22; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II: 26.9 +/- 8.9 vs 24.1 +/- 8.2], pre-dialysis blood urea nitrogen [BUN (116.4 +/- 33.6 mg/dL vs 112.6 +/- 36.8 mg/dL)], and creatinine (5.85 +/- 1.9 mg/dL vs 5.95 +/- 1.4 mg/dL). In G1, weekly delivered Kt/V was 3.59 +/- 0.61, and in G2, it was 4.76 +/- 0.65 (p < 0.01). The two groups were similar in metabolic and acid-base control (after 4 sessions, BUN < 55 mg/dL: 46 +/- 18.7 mg/dL vs 52 +/- 18.2 mg/dL; pH: 7.41 vs 7.38; bicarbonate: 22.8 +/- 8.9 mEq/L vs 22.2 +/- 7.1 mEq/L). Duration of therapy was longer in G2 (5.5 days vs 7.5 days; p = 0.02). Despite the delivery of different dialysis methods and doses, the survival rate did not differ between the groups (58% in G1 vs 52% in G2), and recovery of renal function was similar (28% vs 26%).Conclusion: High doses of CPD provided appropriate metabolic and pH control, with a rate of survival and recovery of renal function similar to that seen with dHD. Therefore, CPD can be considered an alternative to other forms of RRT in AKI.

Parametric evaluation of methotrimeprazine-midazolam-ketamine and methotrimeprazine-midazolam-ketamine-xylazine combination in dogs

OBJETIVO: Avaliar os parâmetros de cães anestesiados com diferentes protocolos de fármacos dissociativos por infusão intravenosa contínua. MÉTODOS: Foram utilizados 30 cães, machos e fêmeas, clinicamente sadios, distribuídos aleatoriamente em três grupos (G1,G2 e G3) (*)). em G1 utilizou-se levomepromazina como medicação pré-anestésica (MPA), midazolam-cetamina pela via intravenosa em bolus para indução e midazolam-cetamina em infusão intravenosa contínua por 60 minutos para manutenção. em G2 procedeu-se da mesma forma que em G1 elevando-se, porém, a dose de midazolam durante a manutenção. em G3 repetiu-se o tratamento empregado em G2, acrescentando-se a xilazina à manutenção. Após a indução, iniciou-se imediatamente a manutenção anestésica, realizando-se aferições, 15 minutos depois da MPA, em intervalos de 10 minutos, durante a manutenção (M0 a M7). RESULTADOS: em G3 ocorreu bradicardia, bloqueio átrio-ventricular, bradipnéia e hipoxemia e em G1 e G2, discreta hipotensão. CONCLUSÃO: A via intravenosa contínua apresentou vantagens quanto a: não oscilação dos parâmetros e redução no período de recuperação anestésica. A elevação da dose de midazolam resultou em discretas variações paramétricas, estas, acentuadas pelo uso da xilazina, que causou hipoxemia, bradiarritmia, diminuição da freqüência respiratória e volume minuto.