Win-win transport strategies: searching for sinergies

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Assessment methodology applied to demand measures to change urban mobility behavior

In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

Female mating preference for bold males in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata.

Although females prefer to mate with brightly colored males in numerous species, the benefits accruing to such females are virtually unknown. According to one hypothesis of sexual selection theory, if the expression of costly preferred traits in males (such as conspicuous colors) is proportional to the male's overall quality or reveals his quality, a well-developed trait should indicate good condition and/or viability for example. A female choosing such a male would therefore stand to gain direct or indirect fitness benefits, or both. Among potential phenotypic indicators of an individual's quality are the amount and brightness of its carotenoid-based colors and its boldness, as measured by its willingness to risk approaching predators without being killed. Here, we show experimentally that in the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata) the visual conspicuousness of the color pattern of males correlates positively with boldness toward, and with escape distance from, a cichlid fish predator. Bold individuals are thus more informed about nearby predators and more likely to survive encounters with them. Mate-choice experiments showed that females prefer colorful males as mates, but prefer bolder males irrespective of their coloration when given the opportunity to observe their behavior toward a potential fish predator. By preferentially mating with colorful males, female guppies are thus choosing on average, relatively bold, and perhaps more viable, individuals. In doing so, and to the extent that viability is heritable, they potentially gain indirect fitness benefits by producing more viable offspring than otherwise.

Interazioni piante - insetti: ruolo delle formiche in un sistema multitrofico. Aspetti ecoetologici ed applicativi

Le formiche svolgono un importante ruolo all’interno degli ecosistemi ed alcune specie sono considerate keystone in quanto in grado di modificare la componente biotica e/o abiotica dell’ecosistema stesso. Sono animali ubiquitari che hanno colonizzato molteplici ambienti, compresi gli agroecosistemi. Negli agroecosistemi spesso svolgono un ruolo impattante determinando la diffusione o il regresso di specie di artropodi, alcune delle quali dannose alle colture. La presente ricerca tiene conto di un’ampia visione dei rapporti ecoetologici intercorrenti tra le formiche e la componente biotica di un ecosistema, utilizzando il concetto di rete multitrofica. In quest’ottica, si è pensato di costruire un sistema multitrofico costituito da una specie vegetale di interesse agrario (Cucumis sativus), dai suoi fitofagi naturali, divisi in fitomizi (afidi) (Aphis gossypii e Myzus persicae) e fitofagi masticatori (bruchi del lepidottero Mamestra brassicae), formiche (Formica pratensis) e predatori afidofagi (Aphidolets aphidimyza). Il sistema multitrofico è stato utilizzato sia per studiare l’aggressività delle formiche, sia per verificare l’esistenza di una comunicazione interspecifica tra le formiche e le piante (allelochimici). Gli studi sull’aggressività sono consistiti nel: • Verificare il livello di aggressività delle formiche nei confronti di un fitofago masticatore, competitore degli afidi nello sfruttare la pianta ospite. • Verificare se la presenza di afidi mutualisti fa variare il livello di aggressività delle formiche verso il competitore. • Verificare se esiste aggressività verso un predatore di afidi, i quali, secondo il paradigma della trofobiosi, dovrebbero essere difesi dalle formiche in cambio della melata. • Verificare se il predatore ha evoluto strategie volte ad eludere il controllo delle formiche sugli insetti che si approcciano alla colonia di afidi. Gli studi sui rapporti piante-formiche sono stati effettuati mediante olfattometro, osservando la risposta delle formiche alle sostanze volatili provenienti da piante infestate in modo differente con i fitofagi del sistema. Attraverso il trappolaggio e l’analisi gas-cromatografica delle sostanze prodotte dalle piante oggetto di studio abbiamo quindi individuato tipo e quantità di ogni composto volatile. Oltre alle piante di cetriolo, per questi esperimenti sono state utilizzate anche piante di patata (Solanum tuberosum). Dagli esperimenti sull’aggressività è risultato che le formiche manifestano un elevato potenziale predatorio, eradicando completamente la presenza dei bruchi sulle piante. Questo livello di aggressività tuttavia non cresce con la presenza degli afidi mutualisti che dovrebbero essere difesi dai competitori. Le formiche inoltre non sono in grado di sopprimere i predatori afidofagi che ipotizziamo riescano ad effettuare un camuffamento chimico, assumendo gli odori degli afidi dei quali si nutrono. I risultati degli esperimenti in olfattometro mostrano una chiara risposta positiva delle formiche verso gli odori di alcune delle piante infestate. Vi sono delle differenze nella risposta in funzione della specie di fitofago presente e della specie di pianta utilizzata. Nei trattamenti in cui erano presenti le piante di C. sativus, gli esperimenti in olfattometro hanno mostrato che le formiche rispondono in modo significativo agli odori emessi dalle piante in cui vi era la presenza del fitofago masticatore M. brassicae, solo o in associazione con A. gossypii. La presenza dei soli afidi, sia mutualisti (A. gossypii) sia non mutualisti (M. persicae), non ha invece indotto una risposta significativa nelle formiche rispetto agli odori delle piante non infestate. Nei trattamenti in cui erano presenti le piante di S. tuberosum la scelta delle formiche è stata significativa verso gli odori emessi dalle piante infestate con ciascuna delle singole specie di erbivori rispetto alle piante non infestate. Gli esperimenti sull’analisi delle sostanze volatili emesse dalle piante hanno confermato che gli organismi vegetali sono una vera centrale di produzione biochimica, infatti ben 91 composti volatili diversi sono stati individuati dall’analisi gas-cromatografica delle piante di cetriolo e 85 in quelle di patata. Dalle elaborazioni effettuate, rispettivamente 27 e 4 di essi sono prodotti esclusivamente dalle piante attaccate dai fitofagi. In generale, il cambiamento più consistente è dato dalla quantità di alcune sostanze volatili emesse dalle piante infestate rispetto a quelle integre che determina un cambiamento nei rapporti tra le sostanze che compongono i volatiles. E’ probabile che l’effetto attrattivo esercitato sulle formiche sia dato da un Blend di sostanze più che dai singoli composti presenti

Identificación de las distintas sensibilidades a los precios turísticos en la Comunidad Valenciana

El papel del precio en el sector turístico es especialmente complejo debido a la heterogeneidad existente entre los turistas y, por tanto, a las distintas sensibilidades al precio que muestran. En este sentido, el presente trabajo propone la utilización de modelos de elección discreta para identificar las sensibilidades individuales, turista a turista, y, a continuación, utilizar dichas estimaciones como punto de partida para detectar grupos de turistas con una respuesta similar a los precios. La aplicación empírica realizada en el contexto de la Comunidad Valenciana permite detectar tres segmentos: turistas de precio bajo, turistas indiferentes al precio y turistas de precio alto.

Reinforcement drives rapid allopatric speciation

Allopatric speciation results from geographic isolation between populations. In the absence of gene flow, reproductive isolation arises gradually and incidentally as a result of mutation, genetic drift and the indirect effects of natural selection driving local adaptation(1-3). In contrast, speciation by reinforcement is driven directly by natural selection against maladaptive hybridization(1,4). This gives individuals that choose the traits of their own lineage greater fitness, potentially leading to rapid speciation between the lineages(1,4). Reinforcing natural selection on a population of one of the lineages in a mosaic contact zone could also result in divergence of the population from the allopatric range of its own lineage outside the zone(4-6). Here we test this with molecular data, experimental crosses, field measurements and mate choice experiments in a mosaic contact zone between two lineages of a rainforest frog. We show that reinforcing natural selection has resulted in significant premating isolation of a population in the contact zone not only from the other lineage but also, incidentally, from the closely related main range of its own lineage. Thus we show the potential for reinforcement to drive rapid allopatric speciation.

Entrepreneurship, social capital, and institutions:social and commercial entrepreneurship across nations

We model and test the relationship between social and commercial entrepreneurship drawing on social capital theory. We propose that the country prevalence rate of social entrepreneurship is an indicator of constructible nation-level social capital and enhances the likelihood of individual commercial entry. We further posit that both social and commercial entrepreneurial entry is facilitated by certain formal institutions, namely strong property rights and (low) government activism, albeit the latter impacts each of these types of entrepreneurship differently. We apply bivariate discrete choice multilevel modeling to population-representative samples in 47 countries and find support for these hypotheses. © 2013 Baylor University.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Essays on Microeconometrics

My dissertation has three chapters which develop and apply microeconometric tech- niques to empirically relevant problems. All the chapters examines the robustness issues (e.g., measurement error and model misspecification) in the econometric anal- ysis. The first chapter studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treat- ment variable is mismeasured and endogenous. I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the following two assumptions: (1) the exclusion restriction of an instrument and (2) deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment variable in the instrument. The identification strategy allows for general measurement error. Notably, (i) the measurement error is nonclassical, (ii) it can be endogenous, and (iii) no assumptions are imposed on the marginal distribution of the measurement error, so that I do not need to assume the accuracy of the measure- ment. Based on the partial identification result, I provide a consistent confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly valid size control. I also show that the identification strategy can incorporate repeated measurements to narrow the identified set, even if the repeated measurements themselves are endoge- nous. Using the the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, I demonstrate that my new methodology can produce nontrivial bounds for the return to college attendance when attendance is mismeasured and endogenous.

The second chapter, which is a part of a coauthored project with Federico Bugni, considers the problem of inference in dynamic discrete choice problems when the structural model is locally misspecified. We consider two popular classes of estimators for dynamic discrete choice models: K-step maximum likelihood estimators (K-ML) and K-step minimum distance estimators (K-MD), where K denotes the number of policy iterations employed in the estimation problem. These estimator classes include popular estimators such as Rust (1987)’s nested fixed point estimator, Hotz and Miller (1993)’s conditional choice probability estimator, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002)’s nested algorithm estimator, and Pesendorfer and Schmidt-Dengler (2008)’s least squares estimator. We derive and compare the asymptotic distributions of K- ML and K-MD estimators when the model is arbitrarily locally misspecified and we obtain three main results. In the absence of misspecification, Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002) show that all K-ML estimators are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our first result shows that this finding extends to a locally misspecified model, regardless of the degree of local misspecification. As a second result, we show that an analogous result holds for all K-MD estimators, i.e., all K- MD estimator are asymptotically equivalent regardless of the choice of K. Our third and final result is to compare K-MD and K-ML estimators in terms of asymptotic mean squared error. Under local misspecification, the optimally weighted K-MD estimator depends on the unknown asymptotic bias and is no longer feasible. In turn, feasible K-MD estimators could have an asymptotic mean squared error that is higher or lower than that of the K-ML estimators. To demonstrate the relevance of our asymptotic analysis, we illustrate our findings using in a simulation exercise based on a misspecified version of Rust (1987) bus engine problem.

The last chapter investigates the causal effect of the Omnibus Budget Reconcil- iation Act of 1993, which caused the biggest change to the EITC in its history, on unemployment and labor force participation among single mothers. Unemployment and labor force participation are difficult to define for a few reasons, for example, be- cause of marginally attached workers. Instead of searching for the unique definition for each of these two concepts, this chapter bounds unemployment and labor force participation by observable variables and, as a result, considers various competing definitions of these two concepts simultaneously. This bounding strategy leads to partial identification of the treatment effect. The inference results depend on the construction of the bounds, but they imply positive effect on labor force participa- tion and negligible effect on unemployment. The results imply that the difference- in-difference result based on the BLS definition of unemployment can be misleading

due to misclassification of unemployment.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a physical activity loyalty scheme for behaviour change maintenance: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background
Increasing physical activity in the workplace can provide employee physical and mental health benefits, and employer economic benefits through reduced absenteeism and increased productivity. The workplace is an opportune setting to encourage habitual activity. However, there is limited evidence on effective behaviour change interventions that lead to maintained physical activity. This study aims to address this gap and help build the necessary evidence base for effective, and cost-effective, workplace interventions

Methods/design
This cluster randomised control trial will recruit 776 office-based employees from public sector organisations in Belfast and Lisburn city centres, Northern Ireland. Participants will be randomly allocated by cluster to either the Intervention Group or Control Group (waiting list control). The 6-month intervention consists of rewards (retail vouchers, based on similar principles to high street loyalty cards), feedback and other evidence-based behaviour change techniques. Sensors situated in the vicinity of participating workplaces will promote and monitor minutes of physical activity undertaken by participants. Both groups will complete all outcome measures. The primary outcome is steps per day recorded using a pedometer (Yamax Digiwalker CW-701) for 7 consecutive days at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Secondary outcomes include health, mental wellbeing, quality of life, work absenteeism and presenteeism, and use of healthcare resources. Process measures will assess intervention “dose”, website usage, and intervention fidelity. An economic evaluation will be conducted from the National Health Service, employer and retailer perspective using both a cost-utility and cost-effectiveness framework. The inclusion of a discrete choice experiment will further generate values for a cost-benefit analysis. Participant focus groups will explore who the intervention worked for and why, and interviews with retailers will elucidate their views on the sustainability of a public health focused loyalty card scheme.

Discussion
The study is designed to maximise the potential for roll-out in similar settings, by engaging the public sector and business community in designing and delivering the intervention. We have developed a sustainable business model using a ‘points’ based loyalty platform, whereby local businesses ‘sponsor’ the incentive (retail vouchers) in return for increased footfall to their business.

Assessing Non-market Benefits of Seagrass Restoration in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdańsk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.

Análisis de la percepción de seguridad en puentes peatonales: una aproximación mediante modelación híbrida

Este artículo de investigación científica y tecnológica estudia la percepción de seguridad en el uso de puentes peatonales, empleando un enfoque sustentado en dos campos principales: el microeconómico y el psicológico. El trabajo hace la estimación simultánea de un modelo híbrido de elección y variables latentes con datos de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas, encontrando mejor ajuste que un modelo mixto de referencia, lo que indica que la percepción de seguridad determina el comportamiento de los peatones cuando se enfrentan a la decisión de usar o no un puente peatonal. Se encontró que el sexo, la edad y el nivel de estudios son atributos que inciden en la percepción de seguridad. El modelo calibrado sugiere varias estrategias para aumentar el uso de puentes peatonales que son discutidas, encontrando que el uso de barreras ocasiona una pérdida de utilidad, en los peatones, que debería ser estudiada como extensión del presente trabajo.

Procedimento para estudo da escolha modal em viagens realizadas por estudantes de instituições de ensino médio, mediado pela psicologia social

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Integrated pest management and the (un)sustainable use of pesticides

Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Contrast and lustre:a model that accounts for eleven different forms of contrast discrimination in binocular vision

Our goal here is a more complete understanding of how information about luminance contrast is encoded and used by the binocular visual system. In two-interval forced-choice experiments we assessed observers' ability to discriminate changes in contrast that could be an increase or decrease of contrast in one or both eyes, or an increase in one eye coupled with a decrease in the other (termed IncDec). The base or pedestal contrasts were either in-phase or out-of-phase in the two eyes. The opposed changes in the IncDec condition did not cancel each other out, implying that along with binocular summation, information is also available from mechanisms that do not sum the two eyes' inputs. These might be monocular mechanisms. With a binocular pedestal, monocular increments of contrast were much easier to see than monocular decrements. These findings suggest that there are separate binocular (B) and monocular (L,R) channels, but only the largest of the three responses, max(L,B,R), is available to perception and decision. Results from contrast discrimination and contrast matching tasks were described very accurately by this model. Stimuli, data, and model responses can all be visualized in a common binocular contrast space, allowing a more direct comparison between models and data. Some results with out-of-phase pedestals were not accounted for by the max model of contrast coding, but were well explained by an extended model in which gratings of opposite polarity create the sensation of lustre. Observers can discriminate changes in lustre alongside changes in contrast.