Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Ballet

The video Ballet engages with recent histories of rural filmmaking, linking everyday farming movements with the aesthetics of dance. Starting point for this new work is a series of archival films from the collection of the Museum of English Rural Life (MERL), which provide warnings of contagion and nuclear catastrophe, describing procedure and instruction in the case of emergency. These films present a unique vision of rural labour and collective staged action, where extras, rural background actors, are performing 'normality' prior to potential disruption of an imminent crisis. Szuper Gallery's video deconstructs the movements of extras in these rural propaganda films. It features a large cast of dancers and non-dancers in a spectacular rural setting performing a new choreography to a dramatic sound score.

Ballet

This solo exhibition featured Ballet, a filmed performance and video installation by Szuper Gallery and an installation of original archive films. Ballet engages with recent histories of rural filmmaking, with movement and dance, linking everyday farming movements with the aesthetics of dance. The starting point for this new work was a series of archival films from the MERL collection, which were made for British farmers as a means both for information and for propaganda, to provide warnings of contagion and nuclear catastrophe, describing procedure and instruction in the case of emergency. Gestural performances and movements of background actors observed in those films were re-scripted into a new choreography of movement for camera to form a playful assemblage.

An experimental investigation of peer influences on hostile attributions in adolescents

Aggression in young people has been associated with a bias towards attributing hostile intent to others; however, little is known about the origin of biased social information processing. The current study explored the potential role of peer contagion in the emergence of hostile attribution in adolescents. 134 adolescents were assigned to one of two manipulated ‘chat-room’ conditions, where they believed they were communicating with online peers (e-confederates) who endorsed either hostile or benign intent attributions. Adolescents showed increased hostile attributions following exposure to hostile e-confederates and reduced hostility in the benign condition. Further analyses demonstrated that social anxiety was associated with a reduced tendency to take on hostile peer attitudes. Neither gender nor levels of aggression influenced individual susceptibility to peer influence, but aggressive adolescents reported greater affinity with hostile e-confederates.

Interventions in social networks: impact on mood and network dynamics

Results from two studies on longitudinal friendship networks are presented, exploring the impact of a gratitude intervention on positive and negative affect dynamics in a social network. The gratitude intervention had been previously shown to increase positive affect and decrease negative affect in an individual but dynamic group effects have not been considered. In the first study the intervention was administered to the whole network. In the second study two social networks are considered and in each only a subset of individuals, initially low/high in negative affect respectively received the intervention as `agents of change'. Data was analyzed using stochastic actor based modelling techniques to identify resulting network changes, impact on positive and negative affect and potential contagion of mood within the group. The first study found a group level increase in positive and a decrease in negative affect. Homophily was detected with regard to positive and negative affect but no evidence of contagion was found. The network itself became more volatile along with a fall in rate of change of negative affect. Centrality measures indicated that the best broadcasters were the individuals with the least negative affect levels at the beginning of the study. In the second study, the positive and negative affect levels for the whole group depended on the initial levels of negative affect of the intervention recipients. There was evidence of positive affect contagion in the group where intervention recipients had low initial level of negative affect and contagion in negative affect for the group where recipients had initially high level of negative affect.

Viral marketing and the new competitive advantage

The role played by viral marketing has received considerable academic and digital media attention recently. Key issues in viral marketing have been examined through the lens of the mode of marketing message transmission, including self-replicating on the basis of quality difference, individuals’ emotional needs, as well as how users are connected across various social networks. This paper presents a review and analysis of viral marketing studies from 2001 to the present day. It investigates how viral marketing facilitate the diffusion of social media products and the relationship between marketers and these product users by taking a look at the implementation of viral marketing in two European online game firms Jagex Games Studio and Rovio Entertainment. The results from this review and analysis indicate that viral marketing plays an important role in accelerating the interaction between marketers and users (as well as the user groups) in the field of digital media and high tech consumption. Therefore, it is evident that firms should understand the social contagion process and target well-connected users purposefully in order to create its competitive advantage.

Toward multifactorial null models of range contraction in terrestrial vertebrates

The contraction of a species’ distribution range, which results from the extirpation of local populations, generally precedes its extinction. Therefore, understanding drivers of range contraction is important for conservation and management. Although there are many processes that can potentially lead to local extirpation and range contraction, three main null models have been proposed: demographic, contagion, and refuge. The first two models postulate that the probability of local extirpation for a given area depends on its relative position within the range; but these models generate distinct spatial predictions because they assume either a ubiquitous (demographic) or a clinal (contagion) distribution of threats. The third model (refuge) postulates that extirpations are determined by the intensity of human impacts, leading to heterogeneous spatial predictions potentially compatible with those made by the other two null models. A few previous studies have explored the generality of some of these null models, but we present here the first comprehensive evaluation of all three models. Using descriptive indices and regression analyses we contrast the predictions made by each of the null models using empirical spatial data describing range contraction in 386 terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) distributed across the World. Observed contraction patterns do not consistently conform to the predictions of any of the three models, suggesting that these may not be adequate null models to evaluate range contraction dynamics among terrestrial vertebrates. Instead, our results support alternative null models that account for both relative position and intensity of human impacts. These new models provide a better multifactorial baseline to describe range contraction patterns in vertebrates. This general baseline can be used to explore how additional factors influence contraction, and ultimately extinction for particular areas or species as well as to predict future changes in light of current and new threats.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Crises financeiras e modelos de contágio

O objetivo desta pesquisa é discutir os chamados modelos de “contágio mimético” como uma explicação das crises financeiras e mostrar que tais situações não nascem necessariamente de comportamentos irracionais dos agentes econômicos.

Crises financeiras e modelos de contágio

O objetivo desta pesquisa é discutir os chamados modelos de "contágio mimético" como uma explicação das crises financeiras e mostrar que tais situações não nascem necessariamente de comportamentos irracionais dos agentes econômicos.

Modelando contágio financeiro através de cópulas

This article aims to test the hypothesis of contagion between the indices of nancial markets from the United States to Brazil, Japan and England for the period 2000 to 2009. Time varying copulas were used to capture the impact of Sub-prime crisis in the dependence between markets. The implemented model was a ARMA(1,0) st-ARCH(1,2) to the marginal distributions and Normal and Joe Clayton (SJC) copulas for the joint distribution. The results obtained allow to conclude that both for the gaussiana copula and for the SJC copula there is evidence of contagion between the American market and the Brazilian market. For the other two markets Londoner and Japanese, the evidence of the presence of contagion between these markets and the American has not been suf ciently clear in both copula

A emergência da criança no Brasil

Pretende-se desenvolver aqui uma reflexão sobre como, a partir do século XIX, no nosso país, a criança passou a ser alvo de forças que dela se apropriaram para forjar o indivíduo obediente e, sobretudo, útil. A submissão ao poder patriarcal foi substituída pela submi~ são a um poder distribuído e organi zado dentro da sociedade que atravessa os corpos e exerce sobre eles um controle tão forte quanto discreto, produzindo no final uma multidão de individua lidades, de "di6e~ença~" ... iguais. Dentro da família a mulher passou a ocupar um lugar de destaque pois, como mãe, papel enaltecido a partir de então, veio a ser a responsável pela formação e educação dos filhos, futuros cidadãos. Sua função viria a ser reforçada pela esco la e por outros dispositivos do poder discipl inar, como o enten de Foucault. Hoje, o conhecimento do mundo infantil, o atendimento das necessidaaes da criança, a compreensão dos seus desejos sa-o, n a ver d a de, p r o d u ç õ e s das p r á t i c a s d e c o n t r o 1 e e v i g i 1 ã n c i a da s crianças. Pensar sobre essas questões e o começo de uma mudança que se quer, aqui, estimular. Por contágio.

Contágio financeiro global : evidências de países do G20

O presente estudo investiga a existência de contágio financeiro entre os países do G20, com base em uma análise sobre os retornos dos principais índices de ações, abrangendo o período de 2000 a 2012. A abordagem utilizada consiste na utilização de modelos multivariados de volatilidade da família DCC-GARCH, na versão proposta por Engle e Sheppard (2001). Com base nos testes efetuados, conclui-se que houve mudanças estruturais nas séries analisadas em praticamente todos os 14 países analisados, sendo que os resultados obtidos demonstram evidências favoráveis para a hipótese de contágio financeiro entre países do G20. Verificou-se também que dentre as diversas crises financeiras ocorridas durante o período analisado, a Crise do Subprime destaca-se das demais crises, devido a sua magnitude e velocidade com que se propagou, afetando tanto países desenvolvidos como países emergentes.