Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Towards a measure of income inequality freed from the volatility caused by variations in the rate of unemployment

By mixing together inequalities based on cyclical variables, such as unemployment, and on structural variables, such as education, usual measurements of income inequality add objects of a di§erent economic nature. Since jobs are not acquired or lost as fast as education or skills, this aggreagation leads to a loss of relavant economic information. Here I propose a di§erent procedure for the calculation of inequality. The procedure uses economic theory to construct an inequality measure of a long-run character, the calculation of which can be performed, though, with just one set of cross-sectional observations. Technically, the procedure is based on the uniqueness of the invariant distribution of wage o§ers in a job-search model. Workers should be pre-grouped by the distribution of wage o§ers they see, and only between-group inequalities should be considered. This construction incorporates the fact that the average wages of all workers in the same group tend to be equalized by the continuous turnover in the job market.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Random regression models using different functions to model test-day milk yield of Brazilian Holstein cows

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Sensitivity of the BEAM4 fisheries bioeconomic model to the main biological input parameters

Several runs of the BEAM4 model were carried out, combining several sets of input parameters from von Bertalanffy's growth curve (Lt = L-x[1 - e(-k(-to))]) and the natural mortality (M), with sets or parameters from the length-weight relationship (W=aL(b)). Further simulations were made with variations of +/- 20%, in the input parameters: recruitment (R), catchability coefficient (q), and the lengths at which 50 and 75% of the fishes are retained by the net (L-50%, and L-75%). The data used were those of the pair trawl fisheries for corvina Micropogonias furnieri, off southeastern Brazil. Results showed variations in the output (landed weight) ranging from - 62 to 147% associated with the diverse sets of VBGF and LWR parameters, and lower variations associated with the other input parameters tested. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Lobe identity in the Mongolian gerbil prostatic complex: A new rodent model for prostate study

Knowledge of structural and physiological differences among the prostatic lobes (PL) is the basis for development of experimental studies in traditional laboratory rodents. Although Mongolian gerbil reproductive organs have been increasingly investigated, its prostate structure is far from being properly known, and investigations of this organ focused on the ventral lobe (VL). Thus, the present study provides a thorough morphological description of prostatic complex in the male adult gerbil on the basis of topographic, histological, and ultrastructural analysis and ductal branching. Like other rodents, four pairs of PL were observed. However, in contrast to the rat and mouse, the VL is the least voluminous component and the dorsolateral lobe (DLL) is the most prominent and spatially isolated from remaining PL. The occurrence of a dorsal lobe (DL), hidden between bladder and insertion of seminal vesicles, has not been mentioned in previous reports with Mongolian gerbil. Collagenase digestion followed by microdissection revealed that, except for DL, which has a tubularacinar organization, all PL exhibit tubular organization and variable ductal branching. Distinct histological and ultrastructural features such as secretory epithelium, aspect of luminal secretion and stromal organization are reported for each PL and are confirmed by morphometric and stereological methods. Histological sections showed at least three intralobar segments in VL and DL. Ultrastructural analysis evidenced that, although luminal epithelial cells of PL share typical features of exocrine secretory cells, there are striking lobe phenotypical variations. Both merocrine and apocrine pathways are observed in variable rates in all PL, with the predominance of the former in the DLL and the latter in the CG. The morphological observations presented herein point to distinct structural identities for each PL, which probably reflects,specific functional compromise of seminal fluid secretion. These data also point to the gerbil as a good model for investigations concerning the regulation of prostate development and homeostasis, mainly with regard to the dorsal and dorsolateral PL.

Comparative investigation of the cleavage step in the synthesis of model peptide resins: Implications for N-alpha-9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl-solid phase peptide synthesis

Based on our studies of the stability of model peptide-resin linkage in acid media, we previously proposed a rule for resin selection and a final cleavage protocol applicable to the N-alpha-tert-butyloxycarbonyl (Boc)-peptide synthesis strategy. We found that incorrect choices resulted in decreases in the final synthesis yield, which is highly dependent on the peptide sequence, of as high as 30%. The present paper continues along this line of research but examines the N-alpha-9-fluorenylmethyloxycarbonyl (Fmoc)-synthesis strategy. The vasoactive peptide angiotensin II (All, DRVYIHPF) and its [Gly(8)]-All analogue were selected as model peptide resins. Variations in parameters such as the type of spacer group (linker) between the peptide backbone and the resin, as well as in the final acid cleavage protocol, were evaluated. The same methodology employed for the Boc strategy was used in order to establish rules for selection of the most appropriate linker-resin conjugate or of the peptide cleavage method, depending on the sequence to be assembled. The results obtained after treatment with four cleavage solutions and with four types of linker groups indicate that, irrespective of the circumstance, it is not possible to achieve complete removal of the peptide chains from the resin. Moreover, the Phe-attaching peptide at the C-terminal yielded far less cleavage (50-60%.) than that observed with the Gly-bearing sequences at the same position (70-90%). Lastly, the fastest cleavage occurred with reagent K acid treatment and when the peptide was attached to the Wang resin.

Scaling investigation of Fermi acceleration on a dissipative bouncer model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimation of water transit time in soils under Amazon forest cover using variations in sigma18O values.

In an attempt to estimate the soil-water transit time using the variation in 18O values, a statistical model was used. This model is based on linear regression analysis applied to the values observed for soil water and rain water. The time obtained from these correlations represents the mean time necessary for the water to run from one collecting point to the next.-from Authors

Model to increase the lateral line length of drip irrigation systems

Non-pressure compensating drip hose is widely used for irrigation of vegetables and orchards. One limitation is that the lateral line length must be short to maintain uniformity due to head loss and slope. Any procedure to increase the length is appropriate because it represents low initial cost of the irrigation system. The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to increase the lateral line length combining two points: using a larger spacing between emitters at the beginning of the lateral line and a smaller one after a certain distance; and allowing a higher pressure variation along the lateral line under an acceptable value of distribution uniformity. To evaluate this hypothesis, a nonlinear programming model (NLP) was developed. The input data are: diameter, roughness coefficient, pressure variation, emitter operational pressure, relationship between emitter discharge and pressure. The output data are: line length, discharge and length of the each section with different spacing between drippers, total discharge in the lateral line, multiple outlet adjustment coefficient, head losses, localized head loss, pressure variation, number of emitters, spacing between emitters, discharge in each emitter, and discharge per linear meter. The mathematical model developed was compared with the lateral line length obtained with the algebraic solution generated by the Darcy-Weisbach equation. The NLP model showed the best results since it generated the greater gain in the lateral line length, maintaining the uniformity and the flow variation under acceptable standards. It had also the lower flow variation, so its adoption is feasible and recommended.

Model to design drip hose lateral line using two spacing between emitters

The use of non-pressure compensating drip hose in horticultural and annual cycle fruits is growing in Brazil. In this case, the challenge for designers is getting longer lateral lines with high values of uniformity. The objective of this study was to develop a model to design longer lateral lines using non-pressure compensating drip hose. Using the developed model, the hypotheses to be evaluated were: a) the use of two different spacing between emitters in the same lateral line allows longer length; b) it is possible to get longer lateral lines using high values of pressure variation in the lateral lines since the distribution uniformity stays below allowable limits. A computer program was developed in Delphi based on the model developed and it is able to design lateral lines in level using non-pressure compensating drip hose. The input data are: desired distribution uniformity (DU); initial and final pressure in the lateral line; coefficients of relationship between emitter discharge and pressure head; hose internal diameter; pipe cross-sectional area with the dripper; and roughness coefficient for the Hazen-Williams equation. The program allows calculate the lateral line length with three possibilities: selecting two spacing between emitters and defining the exchange point; using two pre-established spacing between emitters and calculating the length of each section with different spacing; using one emitter spacing. Results showed that the use of two sections with different spacing between drippers in the lateral line didn't allow longer length but got better uniformity when compared with lateral line with one spacing between emitters. The adoption of two spacing increased the flow rate per meter in the final section which represented approximately 80% of the lateral line total length and this justifies their use. The software allowed DU above 90% with pressure head variation of 40% and the use of two spacing between emitters. The developed model/software showed to be accurate, easy to handle and useful for lateral line design using non-pressure compensating drip hose.

An analog model for quantum lightcone fluctuations in nonlinear optics

We propose an analog model for quantum gravity effects using nonlinear dielectrics. Fluctuations of the spacetime lightcone are expected in quantum gravity, leading to variations in the flight times of pulses. This effect can also arise in a nonlinear material. We propose a model in which fluctuations of a background electric field, such as that produced by a squeezed photon state, can cause fluctuations in the effective lightcone for probe pulses. This leads to a variation in flight times analogous to that in quantum gravity. We make some numerical estimates which suggest that the effect might be large enough to be observable. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies

This paper develops a structural general equilibrium model to analyse the reactions of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level to three types of external shock in emerging economies that have limited access to world capital markets. Although the results depend crucially on the type of external shock, each of the two national balance-sheet parameters considered here —the risk premium and the ratio of external indebtedness— exacerbates the reactions of the two endogenous variables without altering the degree of exchange-rate pass-through (erpt). Moreover, flatter Phillips curves, as observed today in many economies, tend to increase erpt. On the basis of these results, the authorities of emerging economies seeking to stabilize markets and limit erpt are advised to minimize the two risk parameters by applying a flexible inflation-targeting regime.

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.