Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Revising the Emergency Management Requirements for new generation reactors

The paper presents the application of a new risk-informed methodology for the identification of the Emergency Management Requirements (EMR) to a Generation II, Large size Reactor and a Generation III+ Small Modular Reactor. The results obtained in this test case demonstrate that the actual EMR is conservative, as expected, for the GenII reactor, while the new methodology could be applied for the definition of EMRs for the new generation Nuclear Power Plants, with a possible reduction of the emergency area without loss of safety level. By adopting both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, the study addresses possible accidents and corresponding release scenarios for the two types of reactor, calculates the areas where the accidents have an impact on the population and defines the new EMR considering the health effects on the population.

Planning guidance: guidance for municipal ESDA's.

"May 1995."

Urban stormwater management : final report.

"Initiated November 1976 as part of the statewide 208 Water Quality Management Planning Program."

Planning problems of town, city, and region; papers and discussions.

"Twenty years of city planning progress in the United States [by] John Nolen": 19th, p. 1-44.

Risk management in build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognised as one of the most risky project schemes. This scheme has been employed rather frequently in the past few decades, in both developed and developing countries. However, because of its risky nature, there have been failures as well as successes. Risk analysis in an appropriate way is desirable in implementing BOT projects. There are various tools and techniques applicable to risk analysis. The application of these risk analysis tools and techniques (RATTs) to BOT projects depends on an understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of RATTs. This paper studies key points in their applications through reviews of relevant literatures and discusses the application of RATTs to BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants, i.e. government, lenders and project companies. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks, which are very important in BOT projects. A flow chart has been introduced to select an appropriate tool for risk management in BOT projects. This study contributes to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Exploring demand and production planning challenges in the food processing industry:a case study

This paper explores demand and production management challenges in the food processing industry. The goal is to identify the main production planning constraints and secondly to explore how each of these constraints affects company’s performance in terms of costs and customer service level. A single case study methodology was preferred since it enabled the collection of in-depth data. Findings suggest that product shelf life, carcass utilization and production lead time are the main constraints affecting supply chain efficiency and hence, a single planning approach is not appropriate when different products have different technological and processing characteristics.

Linking risk management to strategic controls:a case study of Tesco plc

Definitions and perceptions of the role and styles of risk management, and performance management/strategic control systems have evolved over time, but it can be argued that risk management is primarily concerned with ensuring the achievement of strategic objectives. This paper shows the extent of overlap between a broad-based view of risk management, namely Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), and the balanced scorecard, which is a widely used strategic control system. A case study of one of the UK's largest retailers, Tesco plc, is used to show how ERM can be introduced as part of an existing strategic control system. The case demonstrates that, despite some differences in lines of communications, the strategic controls and risk controls can be used to achieve a common objective. Adoption of such an integrated approach, however, has implications for the profile of risk and the overall risk culture within an organisation.

Examining the relationship between risk assessment and risk management in mental health

Risk assessment is crucial for developing risk management plans to prevent or minimize mental health patients' risks that will impede their recovery. Risk assessments and risk management plans should be closely linked. Their content and the extent to which they are linked within one Trust is explored. There is a great deal of variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses and how this is used to develop risk management plans. Keeping risk assessment information in one place rather than scattered throughout patient records is important for ensuring it can be accessed easily and linked properly to risk management plans. Strengthening the link between risk assessment and management will help ensure interventions and care is tailored to the specific needs of individual patients, thus promoting their safety and well-being. Thorough risk assessment helps in developing risk management plans that minimize risks that can impede mental health patients' recovery. Department of Health policy states that risk assessments and risk management plans should be inextricably linked. This paper examines their content and linkage within one Trust. Four inpatient wards for working age adults (18-65 years) in a large mental health Trust in England were included in the study. Completed risk assessment forms, for all patients in each inpatient ward were examined (n= 43), followed by an examination of notes for the same patients. Semi-structured interviews took place with ward nurses (n= 17). Findings show much variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses, which may be distributed in several places. Gaps in the risk assessment and risk management process are evident, and a disassociation between risk information and risk management plans is often present. Risk information should have a single location so that it can be easily found and updated. Overall, a more integrated approach to risk assessment and management is required, to help patients receive timely and appropriate interventions that can reduce risks such as suicide or harm to others. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing.

International risk management:systems, internal control and corporate governance

This book is very practical in its international usefulness (because current risk practice and understanding is not equal across international boundaries). For example, an accountant in Belgium would want to know what the governance regulations are in that country and what the risk issues are that he/she needs to be aware of. This book covers the international aspect of risk management systems, risk and governance, and risk and accounting. In doing so the book covers topics such as: internal control and corporate governance; risk management systems; integrating risk into performance management systems; risk and audit; governance structures; risk management of pensions; pension scheme risks e.g. hedging derivatives, longevity bonds etc; risk reporting; and the role of the accountant in risk management. There are the case studies through out the book which illustrate by way of concrete practical examples the major themes contained in the book. The book includes highly topical areas such as the Sarbanes Oxley Act and pension risk management.

GIS and optimisation:potential benefits for emergency facility location in humanitarian logistics

Floods are one of the most dangerous and common disasters worldwide, and these disasters are closely linked to the geography of the affected area. As a result, several papers in the academic field of humanitarian logistics have incorporated the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for disaster management. However, most of the contributions in the literature are using these systems for network analysis and display, with just a few papers exploiting the capabilities of GIS to improve planning and preparedness. To show the capabilities of GIS for disaster management, this paper uses raster GIS to analyse potential flooding scenarios and provide input to an optimisation model. The combination is applied to two real-world floods in Mexico to evaluate the value of incorporating GIS for disaster planning. The results provide evidence that including GIS analysis for a decision-making tool in disaster management can improve the outcome of disaster operations by reducing the number of facilities used at risk of flooding. Empirical results imply the importance of the integration of advanced remote sensing images and GIS for future systems in humanitarian logistics.

A multi-organisational approach for disaster preparedness and response:the use of optimisation and GIS for facility location, stock pre-positioning, resource allocation and relief distribution

From 1992 to 2012 4.4 billion people were affected by disasters with almost 2 trillion USD in damages and 1.3 million people killed worldwide. The increasing threat of disasters stresses the need to provide solutions for the challenges faced by disaster managers, such as the logistical deployment of resources required to provide relief to victims. The location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, evacuation, inventory management, resource allocation, and relief distribution have been identified to directly impact the relief provided to victims during the disaster. Managing appropriately these factors is critical to reduce suffering. Disaster management commonly attracts several organisations working alongside each other and sharing resources to cope with the emergency. Coordinating these agencies is a complex task but there is little research considering multiple organisations, and none actually optimising the number of actors required to avoid shortages and convergence. The aim of the this research is to develop a system for disaster management based on a combination of optimisation techniques and geographical information systems (GIS) to aid multi-organisational decision-making. An integrated decision system was created comprising a cartographic model implemented in GIS to discard floodable facilities, combined with two models focused on optimising the decisions regarding location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, the allocation of resources and relief distribution, along with the number of actors required to perform these activities. Three in-depth case studies in Mexico were studied gathering information from different organisations. The cartographic model proved to reduce the risk to select unsuitable facilities. The preparedness and response models showed the capacity to optimise the decisions and the number of organisations required for logistical activities, pointing towards an excess of actors involved in all cases. The system as a whole demonstrated its capacity to provide integrated support for disaster preparedness and response, along with the existence of room for improvement for Mexican organisations in flood management.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.