Analysis of residuals in contingency tables: another nail in the coffin of conditional approaches to significance testing.

Omnibus tests of significance in contingency tables use statistics of the chi-square type. When the null is rejected, residual analyses are conducted to identify cells in which observed frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies. Residual analyses are thus conditioned on a significant omnibus test. Conditional approaches have been shown to substantially alter type I error rates in cases involving t tests conditional on the results of a test of equality of variances, or tests of regression coefficients conditional on the results of tests of heteroscedasticity. We show that residual analyses conditional on a significant omnibus test are also affected by this problem, yielding type I error rates that can be up to 6 times larger than nominal rates, depending on the size of the table and the form of the marginal distributions. We explored several unconditional approaches in search for a method that maintains the nominal type I error rate and found out that a bootstrap correction for multiple testing achieved this goal. The validity of this approach is documented for two-way contingency tables in the contexts of tests of independence, tests of homogeneity, and fitting psychometric functions. Computer code in MATLAB and R to conduct these analyses is provided as Supplementary Material.

Exploring the Life-Saving Potential of Naloxone : A Systematic Review and Descriptive Meta-Analysis of Take Home Naloxone (THN) Programmes for Opioid Users

Date of Acceptance: 21/09/2015 This study was funded by NHS Health Scotland. The opinions expressed in this paper as those of the authors alone and are not necessarily those of NHS Health Scotland. The funders had no role in the conduct of the research.

Exploring the Life-Saving Potential of Naloxone : A Systematic Review and Descriptive Meta-Analysis of Take Home Naloxone (THN) Programmes for Opioid Users

Date of Acceptance: 21/09/2015 This study was funded by NHS Health Scotland. The opinions expressed in this paper as those of the authors alone and are not necessarily those of NHS Health Scotland. The funders had no role in the conduct of the research.

Governmentality and exclusion in post-disaster spaces : conducting the conduct of the survivors of Typhoon Sendong in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines

Lorsque les aléas naturels se déroulent en catastrophes, les réponses des religieux, de l’Etat, et d’autres acteurs puissants dans une société révèlent à la fois les relations complexes entre ces parties et leur pouvoir dans la production des espaces auxquelles les survivants accèdent. La réponse en cas de catastrophe comprend la création d’espaces post-catastrophes, tels que des centres d’évacuation, des logements de transition et des sites de réinstallation permanente, qui ciblent spécifiquement un sous-ensemble particulier de survivants, et visent à les aider à survivre, à faire face, et à se remettre de la catastrophe. Les acteurs puissants dans une société dirigent les processus de secours, de récupération et de reconstruction sont des acteurs puissants qui cherchent à problématiser et à rendre un problème technique dans des termes qu’ils sont idéalement placés pour aborder à travers une variété d'interventions. Ce projet de recherche vise à répondre à la question: où les survivants d'une catastrophe reconstruisent-ils leurs vies et leurs moyens de subsistance? Il enquête sur un cas spécifique de la migration environnementale dans laquelle des dizaines de milliers d'habitants ont été déplacés de façon permanente et temporaire de leurs résidences habituelles après le typhon Sendong à Cagayan de Oro, Philippines en 2011. La recherche est basée sur des entretiens avec les acteurs puissants et les survivants, des vidéos participatives réalisées par des survivants pauvres urbains, et des activités de cartographie. L’étude se fonde sur la théorie féministe, les études de migration, les études dans la gouvernementalité, la recherche sur les changements de l’environnement planétaire, et les études régionales afin de situer les diverses expériences de la migration dans un contexte géographique et historique. Cette thèse propose une topographie critique dans laquelle les processus et les pratiques de production d’espaces post-catastrophe sont exposés. Parce que l’espace est nécessairement malléable, fluide, et relationnelle en raison de l'évolution constante des activités, des conflits, et des expériences qui se déroulent dans le paysage, une analyse de l'espace doit être formulée en termes de relations sociales qui se produisent dans et au-delà de ses frontières poreuses. En conséquence, cette étude explore comment les relations sociales entre les survivants et les acteurs puissants sont liées à l’exclusion, la gouvernementalité, la mobilité, et la production des espaces, des lieux et des territoires. Il constate que, si les trajectoires de migration de la plupart des survivants ont été confinés à l'intérieur des limites de la ville, les expériences de ces survivants et leur utilisation des espaces urbains sont très différentes. Ces différences peuvent être expliquées par des structures politiques, économiques, et sociales, et par les différences religieuses, économiques, et de genre. En outre, il fait valoir que les espaces post-catastrophe doivent être considérés comme des «espaces d’exclusion» où les fiduciaires exercent une rationalité gouvernementale. C’est-à-dire, les espaces post-catastrophe prétendument inclusives servent à marginaliser davantage les populations vulnérables. Ces espaces offrent aussi des occasions pour les acteurs puissants dans la société philippine d'effectuer des interventions gouvernementales dans lesquelles certaines personnes et les paysages sont simplifiées, rendues lisibles, et améliorés.

An Institutional, Socio-economic, and Legal Analysis of Fisheries Co-management and Regulation in the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica

Marine Areas for Responsible Artisanal Fishing (AMPR) have emerged as a new model for co-managing small-scale fisheries in Costa Rica, one that involves collaboration between fishers, government agencies and NGOs. This thesis aims to examine the context for collective action and co-management by small-scale fishers; evaluate the design, implementation, and enforcement of AMPRs; and conduct a linguistic analysis of fisheries legislation. The present work relies on the analysis of several types of qualitative data, including interviews with 23 key informants, rapid rural assessments, and legal documents. Findings demonstrate the strong influence of economic factors for sustaining collective action, as well as the importance of certain types of external organizations for community development and co-management. Additionally, significant enforcement gaps and institutional deficiencies were identified in the work of regulating agencies. Legal analysis suggests that mechanisms for government accountability are unavailable and that legal discourse reflects some of the most salient problems in management.

What Makes Online Grocers Work? A Case Study Analysis of Factors Contributing to Online Grocery Store Profitability

This research examined the factors contributing to the performance of online grocers prior to, and following, the 2000 dot.com collapse. The primary goals were to assess the relationship between a company’s business model(s) and its performance in the online grocery channel and to determine if there were other company and/or market related factors that could account for company performance. To assess the primary goals, a case based theory building process was utilized. A three-way cross-case analysis comprising Peapod, GroceryWorks, and Tesco examined the common profit components, the structural category (e.g., pure-play, partnership, and hybrid) profit components, and the idiosyncratic profit components related to each specific company. Based on the analysis, it was determined that online grocery store business models could be represented at three distinct, but hierarchically, related levels. The first level was termed the core model and represented the basic profit structure that all online grocers needed in order to conduct operations. The next model level was termed the structural model and represented the profit structure associated with the specific business model configuration (i.e., pure-play, partnership, hybrid). The last model level was termed the augmented model and represented the company’s business model when idiosyncratic profit components were included. In relation to the five company related factors, scalability, rate of expansion, and the automation level were potential candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. In addition, all the market structure related factors were deemed possible candidates for helping to explain online grocer performance. The study concluded by positing an alternative hypothesis concerning the performance of online grocers. Prior to this study, the prevailing wisdom was that the business models were the primary cause of online grocer performance. However, based on the core model analysis, it was hypothesized that the customer relationship activities (i.e., advertising, promotions, and loyalty program tie-ins) were the real drivers of online grocer performance.

ANALYSIS OF HYPORHEIC FLOW INDUCED BY A BAR IN A GRAVEL STREAM: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

Pipelines are one of the safest means to transport crude oil, but are not spill-free. This is of concern in North America, due to the large volumes of crude oil shipped by Canadian producers and the lengthy network of pipelines. Each pipeline crosses many rivers, supporting a wide variety of human activities, and rich aquatic life. However, there is a knowledge gap on the risks of contamination of river beds due to oil spills. This thesis addresses this knowledge gap by focussing on mechanisms that transport water (and contaminants) from the free surface flow to the bed sediments, and vice-versa. The work focuses on gravel rivers, in which bed sediments are sufficiently permeable that pressure gradients caused by the interactions of flow with topographic elements (gravel bars), or changes in direction induce exchanges of water between the free surface flow and the bed, known as hyporheic flows. The objectives of the thesis are: to present a new method to visualize and quantify hyporheic flows in laboratory experiments; to conduct a novel series of experiments on hyporheic flow induced by a gravel bar under different free surface flows. The new method to quantify hyporheic flows rests on injections of a solution of dye and water. The method yielded accurate flow lines, and reasonable estimates of the hyporheic flow velocities. The present series of experiments was carried out in a 11 m long, 0.39 m wide, and 0.41 m deep tilting flume. The gravel had a mean particle size of 7.7 mm. Different free surface flows were imposed by changing the flume slope and flow depth. Measured hyporheic flows were turbulent. Smaller free surface flow depths resulted in stronger hyporheic flows (higher velocities, and deeper dye penetration into the sediment). A significant finding is that different free surface flows (different velocities, Reynolds number, etc.) produce similar hyporheic flows as long as the downstream hydraulic gradients are similar. This suggests, that for a specified bar geometry, the characteristics of the hyporheic flows depend on the downstream hydraulic gradients, and not or only minimally on the internal dynamics of the free surface flow.

IMPROVING THE PERFORMANCE OF DATABASE-CENTRIC APPLICATIONS THROUGH PROGRAM ANALYSIS

Modern software applications are becoming more dependent on database management systems (DBMSs). DBMSs are usually used as black boxes by software developers. For example, Object-Relational Mapping (ORM) is one of the most popular database abstraction approaches that developers use nowadays. Using ORM, objects in Object-Oriented languages are mapped to records in the database, and object manipulations are automatically translated to SQL queries. As a result of such conceptual abstraction, developers do not need deep knowledge of databases; however, all too often this abstraction leads to inefficient and incorrect database access code. Thus, this thesis proposes a series of approaches to improve the performance of database-centric software applications that are implemented using ORM. Our approaches focus on troubleshooting and detecting inefficient (i.e., performance problems) database accesses in the source code, and we rank the detected problems based on their severity. We first conduct an empirical study on the maintenance of ORM code in both open source and industrial applications. We find that ORM performance-related configurations are rarely tuned in practice, and there is a need for tools that can help improve/tune the performance of ORM-based applications. Thus, we propose approaches along two dimensions to help developers improve the performance of ORM-based applications: 1) helping developers write more performant ORM code; and 2) helping developers configure ORM configurations. To provide tooling support to developers, we first propose static analysis approaches to detect performance anti-patterns in the source code. We automatically rank the detected anti-pattern instances according to their performance impacts. Our study finds that by resolving the detected anti-patterns, the application performance can be improved by 34% on average. We then discuss our experience and lessons learned when integrating our anti-pattern detection tool into industrial practice. We hope our experience can help improve the industrial adoption of future research tools. However, as static analysis approaches are prone to false positives and lack runtime information, we also propose dynamic analysis approaches to further help developers improve the performance of their database access code. We propose automated approaches to detect redundant data access anti-patterns in the database access code, and our study finds that resolving such redundant data access anti-patterns can improve application performance by an average of 17%. Finally, we propose an automated approach to tune performance-related ORM configurations using both static and dynamic analysis. Our study shows that our approach can help improve application throughput by 27--138%. Through our case studies on real-world applications, we show that all of our proposed approaches can provide valuable support to developers and help improve application performance significantly.

Transitions in Contentious Behaviour in Infancy and Later Aggressive Conduct Problems

Background. Individual trajectories toward aggression originate in early infancy, before there is intent to harm. We focused on infants who were contentious, i.e., prone to engage in anger and use of physical force with other people, and examined change in levels of contentiousness between 6 and 12 months of age with reference to later aggressive conduct problems.
Sample. The CCDS is a nationally representative sample of 321 firstborn children whose families were recruited from antenatal clinics in two National Health Service Trusts.
Method. Mothers, fathers, and a third family member or friend who knew infants well completed the Cardiff Infant Contentiousness Scale (CICS) at 6 months, which was stable form 6 to 12 months, and validated by direct observation of infants’ use of force against peers. Primary caregivers again completed the CICS at 12 months, and up to three informants completed the Child Behaviour Check List at mean ages of 36 and 84 months. We used Latent Transition Analysis to identify different groups of infants in respect to their patterns of contentiousness from 6 to 12 months.
Results
Three ordered classes of contentiousness from low to high were found at 6 and 12 months. Infants exposed to greater family adversity were more likely to move into the high-contentious class from 6 to 12 months. Higher contentiousness in infancy predicted more aggressive conduct problems at 33 months and thereafter.
Conclusions
Infants exposed to family adversity are already at disadvantage by 6 months and likely to escalate in their anger and aggressiveness over time.

Exploring the effects of a universal classroom management training programme on teacher and child behaviour: a group randomised controlled trial and cost analysis

Teachers frequently struggle to cope with conduct problems in the classroom. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme for improving teacher competencies and child adjustment. The study involved a group randomised controlled trial which included 22 teachers and 217 children (102 boys and 115 girls). The average age of children included in the study was 5.3 years (standard deviation = 0.89). Teachers were randomly allocated to an intervention group (n = 11 teachers; 110 children) or a waiting-list control group (n = 11; 107 children). The sample also included 63 ‘high-risk’ children (33 intervention; 30 control), who scored above the cut-off (>12) on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire for abnormal socioemotional and behavioural difficulties. Teacher and child behaviours were assessed at baseline and 6 months later using psychometric and observational measures. Programme delivery costs were also analysed. Results showed positive changes in teachers’ self-reported use of positive classroom management strategies (effect size = 0.56), as well as negative classroom management strategies (effect size = −0.43). Teacher reports also highlight improvements in the classroom behaviour of the high-risk group of children, while the estimated cost of delivering the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme was modest. However, analyses of teacher and child observations were largely non-significant. A need for further research exploring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme is indicated.

Heating the Early Universe : Numerical Methods and Their Analysis

During the epoch when the first collapsed structures formed (6<z<50) our Universe went through an extended period of changes. Some of the radiation from the first stars and accreting black holes in those structures escaped and changed the state of the Intergalactic Medium (IGM). The era of this global phase change in which the state of the IGM was transformed from cold and neutral to warm and ionized, is called the Epoch of Reionization.In this thesis we focus on numerical methods to calculate the effects of this escaping radiation. We start by considering the performance of the cosmological radiative transfer code C2-Ray. We find that although this code efficiently and accurately solves for the changes in the ionized fractions, it can yield inaccurate results for the temperature changes. We introduce two new elements to improve the code. The first element, an adaptive time step algorithm, quickly determines an optimal time step by only considering the computational cells relevant for this determination. The second element, asynchronous evolution, allows different cells to evolve with different time steps. An important constituent of methods to calculate the effects of ionizing radiation is the transport of photons through the computational domain or ``ray-tracing''. We devise a novel ray tracing method called PYRAMID which uses a new geometry - the pyramidal geometry. This geometry shares properties with both the standard Cartesian and spherical geometries. This makes it on the one hand easy to use in conjunction with a Cartesian grid and on the other hand ideally suited to trace radiation from a radially emitting source. A time-dependent photoionization calculation not only requires tracing the path of photons but also solving the coupled set of photoionization and thermal equations. Several different solvers for these equations are in use in cosmological radiative transfer codes. We conduct a detailed and quantitative comparison of four different standard solvers in which we evaluate how their accuracy depends on the choice of the time step. This comparison shows that their performance can be characterized by two simple parameters and that the C2-Ray generally performs best.

Big Data Analysis in Social Networks : Extracting Food Preferences of Vegans from Twitter

Market research is often conducted through conventional methods such as surveys, focus groups and interviews. But the drawbacks of these methods are that they can be costly and timeconsuming. This study develops a new method, based on a combination of standard techniques like sentiment analysis and normalisation, to conduct market research in a manner that is free and quick. The method can be used in many application-areas, but this study focuses mainly on the veganism market to identify vegan food preferences in the form of a profile. Several food words are identified, along with their distribution between positive and negative sentiments in the profile. Surprisingly, non-vegan foods such as cheese, cake, milk, pizza and chicken dominate the profile, indicating that there is a significant market for vegan-suitable alternatives for such foods. Meanwhile, vegan-suitable foods such as coconut, potato, blueberries, kale and tofu also make strong appearances in the profile. Validation is performed by using the method on Volkswagen vehicle data to identify positive and negative sentiment across five car models. Some results were found to be consistent with sales figures and expert reviews, while others were inconsistent. The reliability of the method is therefore questionable, so the results should be used with caution.

Microcantilever sensors for biochemical detection and analysis

Biochemical agents, including bacteria and toxins, are potentially dangerous and responsible for a wide variety of diseases. Reliable detection and characterization of small samples is necessary in order to reduce and eliminate their harmful consequences. Microcantilever sensors offer a potential alternative to the state of the art due to their small size, fast response time, and the ability to operate in air and liquid environments. At present, there are several technology limitations that inhibit application of microcantilever to biochemical detection and analysis, including difficulties in conducting temperature-sensitive experiments, material inadequacy resulting in insufficient cell capture, and poor selectivity of multiple analytes. This work aims to address several of these issues by introducing microcantilevers having integrated thermal functionality and by introducing nanocrystalline diamond as new material for microcantilevers. Microcantilevers are designed, fabricated, characterized, and used for capture and detection of cells and bacteria. The first microcantilever type described in this work is a silicon cantilever having highly uniform in-plane temperature distribution. The goal is to have 100 μm square uniformly heated area that can be used for thermal characterization of films as well as to conduct chemical reactions with small amounts of material. Fabricated cantilevers can reach above 300C while maintaining temperature uniformity of 2−4%. This is an improvement of over one order of magnitude over currently available cantilevers. The second microcantilever type is a doped single crystal silicon cantilever having a thin coating of ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD). The primary application of such a device is in biological testing, where diamond acts as a stable, electrically isolated reaction surface while silicon layer provides controlled heating with minimum variations in temperature. This work shows that composite cantilevers of this kind are an effective platform for temperature-sensitive biological experiments, such as heat lysing and polymerase chain reaction. The rapid heat-transfer of Si-UNCD cantilever compromised the membrane of NIH 3T3 fibroblast and lysed the cell nucleus within 30 seconds. Bacteria cells, Listeria monocytogenes V7, were shown to be captured with biotinylated heat-shock protein on UNCD surface and 90% of all viable cells exhibit membrane porosity due to high heat in 15 seconds. Lastly, a sensor made solely from UNCD diamond is fabricated with the intention of being used to detect the presence of biological species by means of an integrated piezoresistor or through frequency change monitoring. Since UNCD diamond has not been previously used in piezoresistive applications, temperature-denpendent piezoresistive coefficients and gage factors are determined first. The doped UNCD exhibits a significant piezoresistive effect with gauge factor of 7.53±0.32 and a piezoresistive coefficient of 8.12×10^−12 Pa^−1 at room temperature. The piezoresistive properties of UNCD are constant over the temperature range of 25−200C. 300 μm long cantilevers have the highest sensitivity of 0.186 m-Ohm/Ohm per μm of cantilever end deflection, which is approximately half that of similarly sized silicon cantilevers. UNCD cantilever arrays were fabricated consisting of four sixteen-cantilever arrays of length 20–90 μm in addition to an eight-cantilever array of length 120 μm. Laser doppler vibrometry (LDV) measured the cantilever resonant frequency, which ranged as 218 kHz−5.14 MHz in air and 73 kHz−3.68 MHz in water. The quality factor of the cantilever was 47−151 in air and 18−45 in water. The ability to measure frequencies of the cantilever arrays opens the possibility for detection of individual bacteria by monitoring frequency shift after cell capture.

Prognosis following acute coronary syndromes according to prior coronary artery bypass grafting: Meta-analysis

PURPOSE: Conduct a meta-analysis to study the prognostic influence of a previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients admitted for an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed using electronic reference databases through January 2013 (MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar and references cited in other studies). Studies in which ACS outcomes with a previous history of CABG were compared with ACS outcomes with no history of previous CABG were considered for inclusion. The main endpoints of interest were mortality and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Data was aggregated at three follow-up times using random-effects meta-analysis models. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were included which provided 387,181 patients for analysis. Previous CABG ACS patients were older, more diabetic and had a more frequent history of a previous myocardial infarction. Pooled in-hospital mortality was higher for the previous CABG ACS patients (OR 1.22 [1.04-1.44], p<0.01, I(2) 88%). The pooled adjusted OR showed no significant differences for the two groups (adjusted OR 1.13 [0.93-1.37], p=0.22, I(2) 92%). Previous CABG ACS patient had a higher pooled 30-day mortality (OR 1.28 [1.05-1.55], p=0.02, I(2) 74%); a higher non-adjusted (OR 1.61 [1.38-1.88], p<0.01, I(2) 70%) and adjusted (adjusted OR 1.37 [1.15-1.65], p<0.01, I(2) 0%) long-term mortality. Both the in-hospital and the long-term re-infarction rates were higher for the previous CABG ACS patients. CONCLUSIONS: According to our data, ACS patients with previous CABG history had a higher risk for short- and long-term adverse events.

Governmentality and exclusion in post-disaster spaces : conducting the conduct of the survivors of Typhoon Sendong in Cagayan de Oro, Philippines

Lorsque les aléas naturels se déroulent en catastrophes, les réponses des religieux, de l’Etat, et d’autres acteurs puissants dans une société révèlent à la fois les relations complexes entre ces parties et leur pouvoir dans la production des espaces auxquelles les survivants accèdent. La réponse en cas de catastrophe comprend la création d’espaces post-catastrophes, tels que des centres d’évacuation, des logements de transition et des sites de réinstallation permanente, qui ciblent spécifiquement un sous-ensemble particulier de survivants, et visent à les aider à survivre, à faire face, et à se remettre de la catastrophe. Les acteurs puissants dans une société dirigent les processus de secours, de récupération et de reconstruction sont des acteurs puissants qui cherchent à problématiser et à rendre un problème technique dans des termes qu’ils sont idéalement placés pour aborder à travers une variété d'interventions. Ce projet de recherche vise à répondre à la question: où les survivants d'une catastrophe reconstruisent-ils leurs vies et leurs moyens de subsistance? Il enquête sur un cas spécifique de la migration environnementale dans laquelle des dizaines de milliers d'habitants ont été déplacés de façon permanente et temporaire de leurs résidences habituelles après le typhon Sendong à Cagayan de Oro, Philippines en 2011. La recherche est basée sur des entretiens avec les acteurs puissants et les survivants, des vidéos participatives réalisées par des survivants pauvres urbains, et des activités de cartographie. L’étude se fonde sur la théorie féministe, les études de migration, les études dans la gouvernementalité, la recherche sur les changements de l’environnement planétaire, et les études régionales afin de situer les diverses expériences de la migration dans un contexte géographique et historique. Cette thèse propose une topographie critique dans laquelle les processus et les pratiques de production d’espaces post-catastrophe sont exposés. Parce que l’espace est nécessairement malléable, fluide, et relationnelle en raison de l'évolution constante des activités, des conflits, et des expériences qui se déroulent dans le paysage, une analyse de l'espace doit être formulée en termes de relations sociales qui se produisent dans et au-delà de ses frontières poreuses. En conséquence, cette étude explore comment les relations sociales entre les survivants et les acteurs puissants sont liées à l’exclusion, la gouvernementalité, la mobilité, et la production des espaces, des lieux et des territoires. Il constate que, si les trajectoires de migration de la plupart des survivants ont été confinés à l'intérieur des limites de la ville, les expériences de ces survivants et leur utilisation des espaces urbains sont très différentes. Ces différences peuvent être expliquées par des structures politiques, économiques, et sociales, et par les différences religieuses, économiques, et de genre. En outre, il fait valoir que les espaces post-catastrophe doivent être considérés comme des «espaces d’exclusion» où les fiduciaires exercent une rationalité gouvernementale. C’est-à-dire, les espaces post-catastrophe prétendument inclusives servent à marginaliser davantage les populations vulnérables. Ces espaces offrent aussi des occasions pour les acteurs puissants dans la société philippine d'effectuer des interventions gouvernementales dans lesquelles certaines personnes et les paysages sont simplifiées, rendues lisibles, et améliorés.