K-liitoksen epäkeskeisen tuennan aiheuttaman sekundäärisen momentin määritys

Työssä on tutkittu laboratoriokokeen ja elementtimenetelmän avulla eri geometrioiden vaikutusta sekundääriseen momentin syntymiseen K-liitoksella. Kokeen liitos on tehty S700-lujuusluokan Ruukin Optim 700 plus MH nelikulmaisista rakenneputkista (RHS). Elementtimalleissa on käytetty geometrista ja materiaalista epälineaarisuutta ennustamaan liitoksen muodonmuutoskykyä ja laskennallista kestävyyttä. Liitoksen elementtimalleissa muutettavia geometrioita ovat: vapaaväli, uumasauvan ja paarteen välinen kulma, paarteen seinämän paksuus, liitoksen eksentrisyys ja uumasauvan ja paarteen leveyden suhde. Laboratoriokokeen liitoksen vetouumasauvassa vaikuttava sekundäärisen momentin aiheuttama jännitys on noin 25 % vetouumasauvan myötörajasta. Suurin sekundäärinen momentti syntyy, kun vapaaväliä pienennetään ja uumasauvaa kavennetaan paarteeseen nähden. Eurocode 3:n mitoitusohjeita voidaan elementtimallien perusteella soveltaa tietyille geometrioille turvallisesti.

Concorrência e mudança técnica: aportes e limites dos modelos neo-schumpeterianos evolucionários de dinâmica industrial

This paper makes a critical survey of some recent evolutionary economic literature dealing with industrial dynamics. Although the evolutionary models of industrial dynamics has explored the relationships among market structure and the innovation process within an analytical context that emphasize non-linearity, behavioral asymmetries and the existence of selective process in the competitive dynamics of markets, have been capable of offering compatible results with industrial organization stylized facts, a lot of limitations in technical change description pointed out have able to alter in a crucial way the results attained.

Threshold Autoregressive Model for a Time Series Data

In this paper we try to fit a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to time series data of monthly coconut oil prices at Cochin market. The procedure proposed by Tsay [7] for fitting the TAR model is briefly presented. The fitted model is compared with a simple autoregressive (AR) model. The results are in favour of TAR process. Thus the monthly coconut oil prices exhibit a type of non-linearity which can be accounted for by a threshold model.

A Comparative Study of Convective Parameterization Schemes in WRF-NMM Model

Severe local storms, including tornadoes, damaging hail and wind gusts, frequently occur over the eastern and northeastern states of India during the pre-monsoon season (March-May). Forecasting thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction, due to their rather small spatial and temporal extension and the inherent non-linearity of their dynamics and physics. In this paper, sensitivity experiments are conducted with the WRF-NMM model to test the impact of convective parameterization schemes on simulating severe thunderstorms that occurred over Kolkata on 20 May 2006 and 21 May 2007 and validated the model results with observation. In addition, a simulation without convective parameterization scheme was performed for each case to determine if the model could simulate the convection explicitly. A statistical analysis based on mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation coefficient is performed for comparisons between the simulated and observed data with different convective schemes. This study shows that the prediction of thunderstorm affected parameters is sensitive to convective schemes. The Grell-Devenyi cloud ensemble convective scheme is well simulated the thunderstorm activities in terms of time, intensity and the region of occurrence of the events as compared to other convective schemes and also explicit scheme

Untersuchung der Adsorptionskinetik photoschaltbarer azobenzolfunktionalisierter selbstorganisierter Monolagen mit optischer Frequenzverdopplung

In dieser Arbeit wurde das Adsorptionsverhalten zweier azobenzolfunktionalisierter Liganden auf Goldoberflächen untersucht. Diese Liganden zeichnen sich dadurch aus, dass sie mithilfe von Licht bestimmter Wellenlängen zwischen zwei Isomerisierungszuständen – sowohl in Lösung als auch in den auf der Oberfläche resultierenden Monolage – hin und her geschaltet werden können. Somit ist es möglich, Oberflächen herzustellen, deren physikalische und chemische Eigenschaften zwischen zwei Zuständen variiert werden können. Die Messungen des Adsorptionsverhaltens wurden mittels optischer Frequenzverdopplung durchgeführt. Diese Messmethode ist höchst grenzflächensensitiv und ermöglicht es somit die Adsorption der Liganden in situ und ich Echtzeit zu verfolgen. Neben den Adsorptionsmessungen wurde auch die Phase des frequenzverdoppelten Signals über eine Interferenzmethode gemessen. Die Ergebnisse dieser Phasenmessungen ermöglichen es, eine Aussage über eine mögliche Nichtlinearität der untersuchten Moleküle zu treffen. An die in den Adsorptionsmessungen gewonnenen Messdaten wurden drei kinetische Standardmodelle angepasst. Beschreibt eines dieser Modelle den im Experiment bestimmten Adsorptionsverlauf, kann eine Aussage über die zugrunde liegenden Prozesse des Adsorptionsvorganges getroffen werden. Die Ergebnisse der Adsorptionsmessungen zeigen einen deutlichen Einfluss des Isomerisierungszustandes der Liganden auf den Verlauf der Adsorption. Liegen die Moleküle im geschalteten Zustand vor, so verläuft die Adsorption langsamer. Weiterhin konnte gezeigt werden, dass ebenso intermolekulare Wechselwirkungen über Wasserstoffbrückenbindungen einen verlangsamenden Einfluss auf die Adsorption der Liganden haben. In den durchgeführten Phasenmessungen zeigte sich darüber hinaus, dass Liganden, die über an die Azobenzolgruppe angebundene Amidgruppen verfügen, eine Nichtlinearität aufweisen. Diese Nichtlinearität ist zudem vom Isomerisierungszustand der Liganden abhängig. In den kinetischen Untersuchungen konnte darüber hinaus gezeigt werden, dass sich die Adsorption der Liganden bis auf eine Ausnahme durch die Langmuirkinetik 2. Ordnung beschreiben lässt. Somit handelt es ich bei der Adsorption der untersuchten Liganden um eine Reaktion, der eine Bindungsspaltung voran geht. Dieser Befund konnte durch Vergleich mit weiteren Experimenten bestätigt werden.

Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change

The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that, while such effects are likely small compared to other sources of uncertainty, models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

Precipitation and floodiness

There are a number of factors that lead to non-linearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this non-linearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this non-linearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim Land precipitation reanalysis (1980–2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to two weeks.

An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

Análise da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil entre 2000 e 2012: inclusão de preços de ativos, não linearidade e queda da taxa de juros neutra

Neste trabalho são abordados empiricamente dois temas bastante atuais no âmbito da política monetária: a estimativa de uma Regra de Taylor aumentada com a inclusão de um vetor de preços de ativos financeiros e a hipótese de não-linearidade da Regra de Taylor. Os principais resultados encontrados sugerem que o Banco Central do Brasil não segue uma Regra de Taylor aumentada na condução da política monetária e que há evidências de não-linearidade de sua função de reação. Além disso, encontramos evidência de recuo da taxa de juros real de equilíbrio (ou neutra) da economia brasileira.

The influence of yttrium on a typical SnO2 varistor system: Microstructural and electrical features

The influence of yttrium oxide, Y2O3, on the microstructure development of the SnO(2)center dot Co(3)O(4)center dot Nb2O5 typical varistor system was studied with scanning (SEM) and transmission (TEM) electron microscopies. The different phases present in the studied samples were characterized through XRD, EDS and selected area diffraction patterns (SAD). Particles of Co2SnO4 were observed with TEM in every sample, whereas clusters of the pyrochlore phase T2Sn2O7 were observed with SEM in samples with 0.05, 0.10 and 0.25 mol% of Y2O3. The higher non-linearity (a = 16) was achieved with the addition of 0.05 mol% of Y2O3. The influence of the secondary phases on the electrical properties is also addressed in this work. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

The influence of aluminium on the overall properties of SnO2-based varistors

The influence of aluminium on the development of the microstructure and on the electrical behaviour of the SnO2 center dot Co3O4 center dot Nb2O5 typical varistor system was studied. Two sources of Al were used, alumina (Al2O3) and boehmite (AlO(OH)). The microstructural features were characterised with scanning (SEM) and transmission (TEM) electron microscopies. The different phases present in the studied samples were also studied with XRD, EDS and electron diffraction patterns of selected areas (SAED). Particles containing Sri, Co, Al, and O were unveiled with TEM. Impedance spectroscopy measurements and current density versus electric field characteristics revealed superior electrical properties for samples with AlO(OH). The higher non-linearity (alpha = 19) was achieved with the addition of 0.1% mol of boehmite. The influence of the secondary phases on the electrical properties is also addressed in this work.