Should system dynamics be described as a 'hard' or 'deterministic' systems approach?

This paper explores the criticism that system dynamics is a ‘hard’ or ‘deterministic’ systems approach. This criticism is seen to have four interpretations and each is addressed from the perspectives of social theory and systems science. Firstly, system dynamics is shown to offer not prophecies but Popperian predictions. Secondly, it is shown to involve the view that system structure only partially, not fully, determines human behaviour. Thirdly, the field's assumptions are shown not to constitute a grand content theory—though its structural theory and its attachment to the notion of causality in social systems are acknowledged. Finally, system dynamics is shown to be significantly different from systems engineering. The paper concludes that such confusions have arisen partially because of limited communication at the theoretical level from within the system dynamics community but also because of imperfect command of the available literature on the part of external commentators. Improved communication on theoretical issues is encouraged, though it is observed that system dynamics will continue to justify its assumptions primarily from the point of view of practical problem solving. The answer to the question in the paper's title is therefore: on balance, no.

Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.

A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Texture analysis and classification using deterministic tourist walk

In this paper, we present a study on a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (tourist walk), which provides a novel method for texture feature extraction. The method is able to explore an image on all scales simultaneously. Experiments were conducted using different dynamics concerning the tourist walk. A new strategy, based on histograms. to extract information from its joint probability distribution is presented. The promising results are discussed and compared to the best-known methods for texture description reported in the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Sensitivity of complex networks measurements

Complex networks obtained from real-world networks are often characterized by incompleteness and noise, consequences of imperfect sampling as well as artifacts in the acquisition process. Because the characterization, analysis and modeling of complex systems underlain by complex networks are critically affected by the quality and completeness of the respective initial structures, it becomes imperative to devise methodologies for identifying and quantifying the effects of the sampling on the network structure. One way to evaluate these effects is through an analysis of the sensitivity of complex network measurements to perturbations in the topology of the network. In this paper, measurement sensibility is quantified in terms of the relative entropy of the respective distributions. Three particularly important kinds of progressive perturbations to the network are considered, namely, edge suppression, addition and rewiring. The measurements allowing the best balance of stability (smaller sensitivity to perturbations) and discriminability (separation between different network topologies) are identified with respect to each type of perturbation. Such an analysis includes eight different measurements applied on six different complex networks models and three real-world networks. This approach allows one to choose the appropriate measurements in order to obtain accurate results for networks where sampling bias cannot be avoided-a very frequent situation in research on complex networks.

Modeling worldwide highway networks

This Letter addresses the problem of modeling the highway systems of different countries by using complex networks formalism. More specifically, we compare two traditional geographical models with a modified geometrical network model where paths, rather than edges, are incorporated at each step between the origin and the destination vertices. Optimal configurations of parameters are obtained for each model and used for the comparison. The highway networks of Australia, Brazil, India, and Romania are considered and shown to be properly modeled by the modified geographical model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EFFECTIVE NETWORKS FOR REAL-TIME DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING

This paper applies the concepts and methods of complex networks to the development of models and simulations of master-slave distributed real-time systems by introducing an upper bound in the allowable delivery time of the packets with computation results. Two representative interconnection models are taken into account: Uniformly random and scale free (Barabasi-Albert), including the presence of background traffic of packets. The obtained results include the identification of the uniformly random interconnectivity scheme as being largely more efficient than the scale-free counterpart. Also, increased latency tolerance of the application provides no help under congestion.

On exact time averages of a massive Poisson particle

In this work we study, under the Stratonovich definition, the problem of the damped oscillatory massive particle subject to a heterogeneous Poisson noise characterized by a rate of events, lambda(t), and a magnitude, Phi, following an exponential distribution. We tackle the problem by performing exact time averages over the noise in a similar way to previous works analysing the problem of the Brownian particle. From this procedure we obtain the long-term equilibrium distributions of position and velocity as well as analytical asymptotic expressions for the injection and dissipation of energy terms. Considerations on the emergence of stochastic resonance in this type of system are also set forth.

Isomers on the [H, S(2), Cl] potential energy surface: A high level investigation

This study reports a systematic state-of-the-art characterization of new sulfur-chlorine species on the [H, S(2), Cl] potential energy surface. Coupled cluster theory singles and doubles with perturbative contributions of connected triples, using the series of correlation consistent basis sets with extrapolations to the complete basis set limit (CBS), were employed to quantify the energetic quantities involved in the isomerization processes on this surface. The structures and vibrational frequencies are unique for some species and represent the most accurate investigation to date. These molecules are potentially a new route of coupling the sulfur and chlorine chemistries in the atmosphere, and conditions of high concentration of H(2)S (HS) like in volcanic eruptions might contribute to their formation. Also an assessment of the MP2/CBS approach relative to CCSD(T)/CBS provides insights on the expected performance of MP2/CBS on the characterization of polysulfides, and also of more complex systems containing disulfide bridges. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agent-Oriented Data Curation in Bioinformatics

The practitioners of bioinformatics require increasing sophistication from their software tools to take into account the particular characteristics that make their domain complex. For example, there is a great variation of experience of researchers, from novices who would like guidance from experts in the best resources to use to experts that wish to take greater management control of the tools used in their experiments. Also, the range of available, and conflicting, data formats is growing and there is a desire to automate the many trivial manual stages of in-silico experiments. Agent-oriented software development is one approach to tackling the design of complex applications. In this paper, we argue that, in fact, agent-oriented development is a particularly well-suited approach to developing bioinformatics tools that take into account the wider domain characteristics. To illustrate this, we design a data curation tool, which manages the format of experimental data, extend it to better account for the extra requirements placed by the domain characteristics, and show how the characteristics lead to a system well suited to an agent-oriented view.

Design e management: um estudo de ciência e tecnologia no campo dos estudos organizacionais

Esta dissertação se propõe a cartografar as redes sociotécnicas do design no campo do management nos moldes propostos pela Teoria Ator-Rede e apresentar o processo de translação pelo qual passou o termo ao adentrar no campo. Para tal, levantou e analisou artigos publicados sobre o tema nos principais periódicos da área de organizações e publicações. Estes textos demonstram como, nas últimas décadas, o design tem passado por uma expansão de sentido e aplicação na direção do management (ou do management no sentido do design), através das abordagens denominadas design thinking, design science ou design process. A pesquisa se justifica, uma vez que este assunto está presente nos principais periódicos do management e dos estudos organizacionais, como uma importante ferramenta para solução de problemas que desafiam os sistemas organizacionais, como: a mudança, o empreendedorismo e a inovação (Stephens & Boland, 2014). É importante destacar que o design tem sido cada vez mais considerado uma atividade decisiva na batalha econômica (Callon, 1986), na determinação dos atuais estilos de vida (lifestyle) e na construção de nosso mundo futuro. No campo dos estudos organizacionais, como demonstrou esta pesquisa, o design surge como uma abordagem que supera a dicotomia entre positivismo e a abordagem crítica na teoria organizacional (Jelinek, Romme & Boland, 2008). Por fim, esta dissertação se ateve à cartografia das redes sociotécnicas e à descrição das quatro principais fases do processo de translação do design no campo do management, a saber: (a) problematização, marcada pela publicação de The Sciences of Artificial em 1969 de Herbert A. Simon, no qual, ele argumenta pelo design como uma habilidade básica para todas as especialidades profissionais, incluindo a gestão (Simon, 1996), (b) interessamento, designers defendendo um design de sistemas complexos como as organizações, (c) engajamento, designers e teóricos das organizações juntos pelo design no management como uma alternativa para a superação da dicotomia entre positivismo e os estudos críticos na administração, e, (d) mobilização, na qual os teóricos das organizações partem em defesa do design no management como um forma de dar conta de modelos organizacionais contemporâneos com fronteiras mais permeáveis e em constante reformulação

Comparação da análise de diferentes perfis de poços pelo método DFA

The study of complex systems has become a prestigious area of science, although relatively young . Its importance was demonstrated by the diversity of applications that several studies have already provided to various fields such as biology , economics and Climatology . In physics , the approach of complex systems is creating paradigms that influence markedly the new methods , bringing to Statistical Physics problems macroscopic level no longer restricted to classical studies such as those of thermodynamics . The present work aims to make a comparison and verification of statistical data on clusters of profiles Sonic ( DT ) , Gamma Ray ( GR ) , induction ( ILD ) , neutron ( NPHI ) and density ( RHOB ) to be physical measured quantities during exploratory drilling of fundamental importance to locate , identify and characterize oil reservoirs . Software were used : Statistica , Matlab R2006a , Origin 6.1 and Fortran for comparison and verification of the data profiles of oil wells ceded the field Namorado School by ANP ( National Petroleum Agency ) . It was possible to demonstrate the importance of the DFA method and that it proved quite satisfactory in that work, coming to the conclusion that the data H ( Hurst exponent ) produce spatial data with greater congestion . Therefore , we find that it is possible to find spatial pattern using the Hurst coefficient . The profiles of 56 wells have confirmed the existence of spatial patterns of Hurst exponents , ie parameter B. The profile does not directly assessed catalogs verification of geological lithology , but reveals a non-random spatial distribution

Universaidade em sistemas da mecâniaestatística de não equilíbrio com estados absorventes e percolação geográfica

Complex systems have stimulated much interest in the scientific community in the last twenty years. Examples this area are the Domany-Kinzel cellular automaton and Contact Process that are studied in the first chapter this tesis. We determine the critical behavior of these systems using the spontaneous-search method and short-time dynamics (STD). Ours results confirm that the DKCA e CP belong to universality class of Directed Percolation. In the second chapter, we study the particle difusion in two models of stochastic sandpiles. We characterize the difusion through diffusion constant D, definite through in the relation h(x)2i = 2Dt. The results of our simulations, using finite size scalling and STD, show that the diffusion constant can be used to study critical properties. Both models belong to universality class of Conserved Directed Percolation. We also study that the mean-square particle displacement in time, and characterize its dependence on the initial configuration and particle density. In the third chapter, we introduce a computacional model, called Geographic Percolation, to study watersheds, fractals with aplications in various areas of science. In this model, sites of a network are assigned values between 0 and 1 following a given probability distribution, we order this values, keeping always its localization, and search pk site that percolate network. Once we find this site, we remove it from the network, and search for the next that has the network to percole newly. We repeat these steps until the complete occupation of the network. We study the model in 2 and 3 dimension, and compare the bidimensional case with networks form at start real data (Alps e Himalayas)