Markov models of aging: theory and practice

We review and structure some of the mathematical and statistical models that have been developed over the past half century to grapple with theoretical and experimental questions about the stochastic development of aging over the life course. We suggest that the mathematical models are in large part addressing the problem of partitioning the randomness in aging: How does aging vary between individuals, and within an individual over the lifecourse? How much of the variation is inherently related to some qualities of the individual, and how much is entirely random? How much of the randomness is cumulative, and how much is merely short-term flutter? We propose that recent lines of statistical inquiry in survival analysis could usefully grapple with these questions, all the more so if they were more explicitly linked to the relevant mathematical and biological models of aging. To this end, we describe points of contact among the various lines of mathematical and statistical research. We suggest some directions for future work, including the exploration of information-theoretic measures for evaluating components of stochastic models as the basis for analyzing experiments and anchoring theoretical discussions of aging.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Information communication technologies and distance education in Sri Lanka: a case study of two universities

Sri Lanka's participation rates in higher education are low and have risen only slightly in the last few decades; the number of places for higher education in the state university system only caters for around 3% of the university entrant age cohort. The literature reveals that the highly competitive global knowledge economy increasingly favours workers with high levels of education who are also lifelong learners. This lack of access to higher education for a sizable proportion of the labour force is identified as a severe impediment to Sri Lanka‟s competitiveness in the global knowledge economy. The literature also suggests that Information and Communication Technologies are increasingly relied upon in many contexts in order to deliver flexible learning, to cater especially for the needs of lifelong learners in today‟s higher educational landscape. The government of Sri Lanka invested heavily in ICTs for distance education during the period 2003-2009 in a bid to increase access to higher education; but there has been little research into the impact of this. To address this lack, this study investigated the impact of ICTs on distance education in Sri Lanka with respect to increasing access to higher education. In order to achieve this aim, the research focused on Sri Lanka‟s effort from three perspectives: policy perspective, implementation perspective and user perspective. A multiple case study research using an ethnographic approach was conducted to observe Orange Valley University‟s and Yellow Fields University‟s (pseudonymous) implementation of distance education programmes using questionnaires, qualitative interviewing and document analysis. In total, data for the analysis was collected from 129 questionnaires, 33 individual interviews and 2 group interviews. The research revealed that ICTs have indeed increased opportunities for higher education; but mainly for people of affluent families from the Western Province. Issues identified were categorized under the themes: quality assurance, location, language, digital literacies and access to resources. Recommendations were offered to tackle the identified issues in accordance with the study findings. The study also revealed the strong presence of a multifaceted digital divide in the country. In conclusion, this research has shown that iii although ICT-enabled distance education has the potential to increase access to higher education the present implementation of the system in Sri Lanka has been less than successful.

Communication costs and the boundaries of the firm

Much has been written about where the boundaries of the firm are drawn, but little about what occurs at the boundaries themselves. When a firm subcontracts, does it inform its suppliers fully of what it requires, or is it willing to accept what they have available? In practice firms often engage in a dialogue, or conversation, with their suppliers, in which at first they set out their general requirements, and only when the supplier reports back on how these can be met are their more specific requirements set out. This paper models such conversations as a rational response to communication costs. The model is used to examine the impact of new information technology, such as CAD/CAM, on the conduct of subcontracting. It can also be used to examine its impact on the marketing activities of firms. The technique of analysis, which is based on the economic theory of teams, has more general applications too. It can be used to model all the forms of dialogue involved in the processes of coordination both within and between firms.

Towards (more) integrity in academia: transcending neo-liberal assumption of research and knowledge creation and the “rules” supressing academic freedom

European researchers across heterogeneous disciplines voice concerns and argue for new paths towards a brighter future regarding scientific and knowledge creation and communication. Recently, in biological and natural sciences concerns have been expressed that major threats are intentionally ignored. These threats are challenging Europe’s future sustainability towards creating knowledge that effectively deals with emerging social, environmental, health, and economic problems of a planetary scope. Within social science circles however, the root cause regarding the above challenges, have been linked with macro level forces of neo-liberal ways of valuing and relevant rules in academia and beyond which we take for granted. These concerns raised by heterogeneous scholars in natural and the applied social sciences concern the ethics of today’s research and academic integrity. Applying Bourdieu’s sociology may not allow an optimistic lens if change is possible. Rather than attributing the replication of neo-liberal habitus in intentional agent and institutional choices, Bourdieu’s work raises the importance of thoughtlessly internalised habits in human and social action. Accordingly, most action within a given paradigm (in this case, neo-liberalism) is understood as habituated, i.e. unconsciously reproducing external social fields, even ill-defined ways of valuing. This essay analyses these and how they may help critically analyse the current habitus surrounding research and knowledge production, evaluation, and communication and related aspects of academic freedom. Although it is acknowledged that transformation is not easy, the essay presents arguments and recent theory paths to suggest that change nevertheless may be a realistic hope once certain action logics are encouraged.

Mapping Educational Specialist knowHow (MESH): the building of a knowledge management system for research informed practice

In this invited article the authors present an evaluative report on the development of the MESHGuides project (http://www.meshguides.org/). MESHGuides’ objective is to provide education with an international knowledge management system. MESHGuides were conceived as research summaries for supporting teachers’ in developing evidence-based practice. Their aim is to enhance teachers’ capacity to engage actively with research in their own classrooms. The original thinking for MESH arose from the work of UK-based academics Professor Marilyn Leask and Dr Sarah Younie in response to a desire, which has recently gathered momentum in the UK, for the development of a more research-informed teaching profession and for the establishment of an on-line platform to support evidence-based practice (DfE, 2015; Leask and Younie 2001; OECD 2009). The focus of this article is on how the MESHGuides project was conceived and structured, the technical systems supporting it and the practical reality for academics and teachers of composing and using MESHGuides. The project and the guides are in the early stages of development, and discussion indicates future possibilities for more global engagement with this knowledge management system.

Time is of the essence: a selective review of the fall and rise of brief therapy research

For compelling reasons of equity and the advance of public health, brief psychotherapy has become the dominant format in both practice and research. One consequence of this is the apparent decline of a distinct stream of brief therapy research. However, much of the agenda formerly identified with that research stream is of increasing importance to the field. Time is indeed of the essence in current psychotherapy research. For example, factors conducive to the time efficiency of brief psychodynamic therapy have been described recently. The important question ‘How much therapy is enough?’ has been addressed by studies inspired by the dose-response analysis of Howard and colleagues. The value of ultra-brief interventions has been examined. These issues are considered in a selective review, drawing in particular on the work of the Sheffield/Leeds psychotherapy of depression research group. This research treats the number of treatment sessions as an independent variable, thereby providing a causal analysis of the dose-response relationship over a range from two to 16 sessions, illuminated by a comparative analysis of change processes in treatments of different durations. Its results enable some specification of the extent and nature of incremental benefit derived from additional sessions in the psychotherapy of depression.

Advancing construction industry development, innovative research and new thinking

Academic writing has a tendency to be turgid and impenetrable. This is not only anathema to communication between academics, but also a major barrier to advancing construction industry development. Clarity in our communication is a prerequisite to effective collaboration with industry. An exploration of what it means to be an academic in a University is presented in order to provide a context for a discussion on how academics might collaborate with industry to advance development. There are conflicting agendas that pull the academic in different directions: peer group recognition, institutional success and industry development. None can be achieved without the other, which results in the need for a careful balancing act. While academics search for better understandings and provisional explanations within the context of conceptual models, industry seeks the practical application of new ideas, whether the ideas come from research or experience. Universities have a key role to play in industry development and in economic development.

Vocational English in policy and practice

The aim of this licentiate thesis is to examine how, and in what ways, vocational English is a part of English language teaching in the Building and Construc­tion Programme in Sweden, and what the influences are for such pedagogy. The main research question is how policy documents relate to the views of teachers and their educational practice regarding vocational English. The study consists of two parts: a textual policy analysis of the three latest upper secondary school reforms in Sweden (Lgy 70, Lpf 94, and Gy 2011), and semi-structured interviews with practicing English teachers in the Building and Construction Programme. The interviews are categorised by using Spradley’s (1979) semantic relationships and taxonomies. Balls’ (Ball, 1993) and Ozga’s (1990; 2000) concept of policy enactment is used in the analysis as well as Bernstein’s (1990; 2000) theoretical framework of classification, framing, and horizontal and vertical discourse. The results show that five of the six teachers in the interviews work with vocational English in some way. The study also shows that there is a distinct gap between policy and practice. Several of the teachers have the notion that they are supposed to work with vocational English and that it must be written down in policy somewhere. The greatest influence on the teaching for these teachers are their students, either indirectly or directly. Further, the study shows that different frame factors such as time poverty hinders the teachers from reading policy texts and cooperating with the vocational teachers in the Building and Construction Programme.

Design and Performance Evaluation of Network-on-Chip Communication Protocols and Architectures

The scale down of transistor technology allows microelectronics manufacturers such as Intel and IBM to build always more sophisticated systems on a single microchip. The classical interconnection solutions based on shared buses or direct connections between the modules of the chip are becoming obsolete as they struggle to sustain the increasing tight bandwidth and latency constraints that these systems demand. The most promising solution for the future chip interconnects are the Networks on Chip (NoC). NoCs are network composed by routers and channels used to inter- connect the different components installed on the single microchip. Examples of advanced processors based on NoC interconnects are the IBM Cell processor, composed by eight CPUs that is installed on the Sony Playstation III and the Intel Teraflops pro ject composed by 80 independent (simple) microprocessors. On chip integration is becoming popular not only in the Chip Multi Processor (CMP) research area but also in the wider and more heterogeneous world of Systems on Chip (SoC). SoC comprehend all the electronic devices that surround us such as cell-phones, smart-phones, house embedded systems, automotive systems, set-top boxes etc... SoC manufacturers such as ST Microelectronics , Samsung, Philips and also Universities such as Bologna University, M.I.T., Berkeley and more are all proposing proprietary frameworks based on NoC interconnects. These frameworks help engineers in the switch of design methodology and speed up the development of new NoC-based systems on chip. In this Thesis we propose an introduction of CMP and SoC interconnection networks. Then focusing on SoC systems we propose: • a detailed analysis based on simulation of the Spidergon NoC, a ST Microelectronics solution for SoC interconnects. The Spidergon NoC differs from many classical solutions inherited from the parallel computing world. Here we propose a detailed analysis of this NoC topology and routing algorithms. Furthermore we propose aEqualized a new routing algorithm designed to optimize the use of the resources of the network while also increasing its performance; • a methodology flow based on modified publicly available tools that combined can be used to design, model and analyze any kind of System on Chip; • a detailed analysis of a ST Microelectronics-proprietary transport-level protocol that the author of this Thesis helped developing; • a simulation-based comprehensive comparison of different network interface designs proposed by the author and the researchers at AST lab, in order to integrate shared-memory and message-passing based components on a single System on Chip; • a powerful and flexible solution to address the time closure exception issue in the design of synchronous Networks on Chip. Our solution is based on relay stations repeaters and allows to reduce the power and area demands of NoC interconnects while also reducing its buffer needs; • a solution to simplify the design of the NoC by also increasing their performance and reducing their power and area consumption. We propose to replace complex and slow virtual channel-based routers with multiple and flexible small Multi Plane ones. This solution allows us to reduce the area and power dissipation of any NoC while also increasing its performance especially when the resources are reduced. This Thesis has been written in collaboration with the Advanced System Technology laboratory in Grenoble France, and the Computer Science Department at Columbia University in the city of New York.

Formal planning rationality in public sector professional work: between discourse and practice

Although rational models of formal planning have been seriously criticized by strategy literature, they not only remain a widely used organizational practice in private firms, but they have increasingly been entering public, professional organizations too, as part of public sector managerial reforms. This research addresses this apparent paradox, exploring the meaning of formal planning in public sector professional work. Curiously, this is an issue that remains under-investigated in the literature: the long debate on formal planning in strategy research devoted scant attention to its diffusion in the public sector, and public sector studies have scrutinized the introduction of other management tools in professional work, but very limitedly formal planning itself. In fact, little is known on the actual meaning of formal planning in public, professional services. This research is based upon a case of adoption of formal planning tools in a public hospital. Embracing a discourse analytical lens, it examines which formal planning discourse entered professional work, to what extent, and how professionals interpret it and engage with it in their practice. The analysis uncovers dynamics of social construction of meaning where, eventually, a formal planning discourse both shapes and is shaped by professional practice. In particular, it is found that formal planning rationality largely penetrated professional work, but not to the detriment of professional values. Morevover, formal planning ‘fails’ as a tool for rational decision making, but it takes up a knowledge work and a social value in professional work, as a tool for explicitation of action courses and for dialogue between otherwise more disconnected parts of the organization.

An Input-Process-Output Approach to Interorganizational Teams: The Influence of Work Group Diversity, Trust and Shared Leadership on Communication Network and Team Outputs.

The market’s challenges bring firms to collaborate with other organizations in order to create Joint Ventures, Alliances and Consortia that are defined as “Interorganizational Networks” (IONs) (Provan, Fish and Sydow; 2007). Some of these IONs are managed through a shared partecipant governance (Provan and Kenis, 2008): a team composed by entrepreneurs and/or directors of each firm of an ION. The research is focused on these kind of management teams and it is based on an input-process-output model: some input variables (work group’s diversity, intra-team's friendship network density) have a direct influence on the process (team identification, shared leadership, interorganizational trust, team trust and intra-team's communication network density), which influence some team outputs, individual innovation behaviors and team effectiveness (team performance, work group satisfaction and ION affective commitment). Data was collected on a sample of 101 entrepreneurs grouped in 28 ION’s government teams and the research hypotheses are tested trough the path analysis and the multilevel models. As expected trust in team and shared leadership are positively and directly related to team effectiveness while team identification and interorganizational trust are indirectly related to the team outputs. The friendship network density among the team’s members has got positive effects on the trust in team and on the communication network density, and also, through the communication network density it improves the level of the teammates ION affective commitment. The shared leadership and its effects on the team effectiveness are fostered from higher level of team identification and weakened from higher level of work group diversity, specifically gender diversity. Finally, the communication network density and shared leadership at the individual level are related to the frequency of individual innovative behaviors. The dissertation’s results give a wider and more precise indication about the management of interfirm network through “shared” form of governance.

Brain-Computer Interfaces for augmented communication: Asynchronous and adaptive algorithms and evaluation with end users

This thesis aimed at addressing some of the issues that, at the state of the art, avoid the P300-based brain computer interface (BCI) systems to move from research laboratories to end users’ home. An innovative asynchronous classifier has been defined and validated. It relies on the introduction of a set of thresholds in the classifier, and such thresholds have been assessed considering the distributions of score values relating to target, non-target stimuli and epochs of voluntary no-control. With the asynchronous classifier, a P300-based BCI system can adapt its speed to the current state of the user and can automatically suspend the control when the user diverts his attention from the stimulation interface. Since EEG signals are non-stationary and show inherent variability, in order to make long-term use of BCI possible, it is important to track changes in ongoing EEG activity and to adapt BCI model parameters accordingly. To this aim, the asynchronous classifier has been subsequently improved by introducing a self-calibration algorithm for the continuous and unsupervised recalibration of the subjective control parameters. Finally an index for the online monitoring of the EEG quality has been defined and validated in order to detect potential problems and system failures. This thesis ends with the description of a translational work involving end users (people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-ALS). Focusing on the concepts of the user centered design approach, the phases relating to the design, the development and the validation of an innovative assistive device have been described. The proposed assistive technology (AT) has been specifically designed to meet the needs of people with ALS during the different phases of the disease (i.e. the degree of motor abilities impairment). Indeed, the AT can be accessed with several input devices either conventional (mouse, touchscreen) or alterative (switches, headtracker) up to a P300-based BCI.

Multiplex assays for biomarker research and clinical application: translational science coming of age

Over the last decade, translational science has come into the focus of academic medicine, and significant intellectual and financial efforts have been made to initiate a multitude of bench-to-bedside projects. The quest for suitable biomarkers that will significantly change clinical practice has become one of the biggest challenges in translational medicine. Quantitative measurement of proteins is a critical step in biomarker discovery. Assessing a large number of potential protein biomarkers in a statistically significant number of samples and controls still constitutes a major technical hurdle. Multiplexed analysis offers significant advantages regarding time, reagent cost, sample requirements and the amount of data that can be generated. The two contemporary approaches in multiplexed and quantitative biomarker validation, antibody-based immunoassays and MS-based multiple (or selected) reaction monitoring, are based on different assay principles and instrument requirements. Both approaches have their own advantages and disadvantages and therefore have complementary roles in the multi-staged biomarker verification and validation process. In this review, we discuss quantitative immunoassay and multiple reaction monitoring/selected reaction monitoring assay principles and development. We also discuss choosing an appropriate platform, judging the performance of assays, obtaining reliable, quantitative results for translational research and clinical applications in the biomarker field.