Impacts of climate change and variability on fish value chains in Uganda

This study examines the vulnerability of fish pr oduction in Uganda, particularly as it r elates to the predicted impacts from climate change, using the concept of the value chain. The value chain approach has been recommended as a useful tool to study specific challenges facing a sector resulting from various drivers of change, including climate. Critically, such analyses can reveal context-specific response strategies to enhance a sector (Jacinto and Pomer oy 2010). The specific purpose of the study was to identify curr ent and potential impacts of climate change and corresponding adaptation strategies in fish value chains. The study builds upon information fr om earlier value chain analyses on fisheries and aquaculture production in Uganda to provide a more in-depth understanding of issues facing the fish industry, in particular, those to be incorporated in the CGIAR Resear ch Program Livestock and Fish.

Participatory action research on climate risk management, Bangladesh

The rural populations of southern Bangladesh are some of the most vulnerable communities in the world to the future impacts of climate change. They are particularly at risk from floods, waterlogged soils, and increasing salinity of both land and water. The objective of this project was to analyze the vulnerability of people in four villages that are experiencing different levels of soil salinity. The study evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of current coping strategies and assessed the potential of an index-based insurance scheme, designed diversification and better information products to improve adaptive capacity.

Linking climate change, rice yield, and migration: the Philippine experience

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its rice productivity impacts, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Results show that climate change effects such as increasing night time temperature and extreme rainfall pattern, by way of reduction in rice yield and farm revenues, significantly increases the number of Overseas Filipino Workers. Findings also show that overseas migration of female workers is more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. However, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues act as a constraint to domestic migration.

Fish for the future: Fisheries development and food security for Kiribati in an era of global climate change

The Republic of Kiribati is a vast South Pacific island group with one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the world. Kiribati waters support a wealth of marine fisheries activities. These activities occur in oceanic, coastal and inshore environments and range from large, foreign, industrial-scale oceanic fishing operations to small-scale, domestic, inshore subsistence fisheries, aquaculture and recreational fisheries. Kiribati has developed a framework of domestic and international governance arrangements that are designed to sustainably manage its wealth of marine resources. The report provides background information for fisheries projects in Kiribati that aim to build food security, improve artisanal livelihoods and strengthen community engagement in fisheries governance. It provides information on the current status of Kiribati fishery resources (oceanic and coastal), their current governance and future challenges. Fish and fisher alike pay little heed to maritime boundaries and bureaucratic distinctions. This report covers both sides of the oceanic/coastal boundary because of the I-Kiribati communities’ interest in oceanic fisheries such as tuna and their heavy dependence on its fisheries resources for food security and economic development. The report focuses on two potential pilot sites for community-based fisheries management projects: North Tarawa and Butaritari.

Building climate-resilient food systems for Pacific Islands

The countries and territories of the Pacific Islands face many challenges in building the three main pillars of food security: availability, access and appropriate use of nutritious food. These challenges arise from factors including rapid population growth and urbanization, shortages of arable land for farming and the availability of cheap, low-quality foods. As a result, many are now highly dependent on imported food, and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in the region is among the highest in the world. This report summarizes: 1) the projected effects of climate change on agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific region; 2) adaptations and supporting policies needed to reduce risks to food production; 3) gaps in knowledge that must be filled in order to implement the adaptations effectively; 4) recommendations to fill these knowledge gaps.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.

Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries

Using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Mediterranean capture fisheries production dataset in conjunction with global and Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, we investigated trends in fisheries landings and landings per unit of effort of commercially important marine organisms, in relation to temperature oscillations. In addition to the overall warming trend, a temperature shift was detected in the Mediterranean Sea in the late 1990s. Fisheries landings fluctuations were examined for the most abundant commercial species (59 species) and showed significant year-to-year correlations with temperature for nearly 60 % of the cases. From these, the majority (~70 %) were negatively related and showed a reduction of 44 % on average. Increasing trends were found, mainly in the landings of species with short life spans, which seem to have benefited from the increase in water temperature. Τhe effect of oceanic warming is apparent in most species or groups of species sharing ecological (e.g. small and medium pelagic, demersal fish) or taxonomic (e.g. cephalopods, crustaceans) traits. A landings-per-unit-of-effort (LPUE) proxy, using data from the seven Mediterranean European Union member states, also showed significant correlation with temperature fluctuations for six out of the eight species examined, indicating the persistence of temperature influence on landings when the fishing effect is accounted for. The speed of response of marine landings to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea possibly shows both the sensitivity and the vulnerable state of the fish stocks and indicates that climate should be examined together with fisheries as a factor shaping stock fluctuations.

Climate change adaptation : a decision support framework to encourage environmentally responsible behaviour

Structured Abstract:
Purpose: Very few studies investigate environmentally responsible behaviour (ERB). This paper presents a new 'Awareness Behaviour Intervention Action' (ABIA) Decision Support Framework to sustain ERB.

Design/methodology/approach: Previous ERB programmes have failed to deliver lasting results; they have not appropriately understood and provided systems to address ERB (Costanzo et al., 1986). These programmes were based on assumptions (Moloney et al., 2010), which this paper addresses. The ABIA Framework has been developed through a case study of social housing tenants waiting for low or zero carbon homes.

Findings: The ABIA Framework enables a better understanding of current attitudes to environmental issues and provides support for ERB alongside technological interventions employed to promote and sustain carbon reduction.

Research limitations/implications: The ABIA Framework should be tested on individuals and communities in a variety of socio-economic, political and cultural contexts. This will help unpack how it can impact on the behaviours of individuals and communities including stakeholders.

Practical implications: This type of research and the ABIA Framework developed from it are crucial if the UK pledge to become the first country in the World where all new homes from 2016 are to be zero carbon.

Social implications: The Framework encourages both individual and community discussion and solving of sustainability issues.

Originality/value: There are few, if any, studies that have developed a framework which can be used to support behavioural change for adaptation to sustainable living in low or zero carbon homes.

A decision support system for managing irrigation in agriculture

In this paper, an automatic Smart Irrigation Decision Support System, SIDSS, is proposed to manage irrigation in agriculture. Our system estimates the weekly irrigations needs of a plantation, on the basis of both soil measurements and climatic variables gathered by several autonomous nodes deployed in field. This enables a closed loop control scheme to adapt the decision support system to local perturbations and estimation errors. Two machine learning techniques, PLSR and ANFIS, are proposed as reasoning engine of our SIDSS. Our approach is validated on three commercial plantations of citrus trees located in the South-East of Spain. Performance is tested against decisions taken by a human expert.

A greenhouse climate multivariable predictive controller

A multivariable predictive controller was implemented to regulate the air temperature, humidity and CO2 concentration for a greenhouse located in the north of Portugal. The controller outputs are computed in order to optimise the future behaviour of the greenhouse environment, concerning the set-point accuracy and the minimization of energy inputs.

Real-time parameter estimation of dynamic temperature and humidity models for greenhouse adaptive climate control

A real-time parameter estimator for the climate discrete-time dynamic models of a greenhouse located at the North of Portugal are presented. The experiments showed that the second order models identified for the air temperature and humidity achieve a close agreement between simulated and experimantal data.

Identification of greenhouse climate dynamic models

In this paper climate discrete-time dynamic models for the inside air temperature of two different greenhouses are identified, using data acquired during two different periods of the year. These models employ data from air temperature and relative humidity (both outside and inside the greenhouse), solar radiation, wind speed, and control inputs (ventialtion, etc.).

Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change

The present investigation on “Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change” was undertaken at the experimental site, at the Regional Station, Coconut Development Board, KAU Campus, Vellanikkara. Ten palms each of eight-year-old coconut cultivars viz., Tiptur Tall, Kuttiadi (WCT), Kasaragod (WCT) and Komadan (WCT) were randomly selected.The study therefore, reinforces our traditional knowledge that the coconut palm is sensitive to changing weather conditions during the period from primordium initiation to harvest of nuts (about 44 months). Absence of rainfall from December to May due to early withdrawal of northeast monsoon, lack of pre monsoon showers and late onset of southwest monsoon adversely affect the coconut productivity to a considerable extent in the following year under rainfed conditions. The productivity can be increased by irrigating the coconut palm during the dry periods.Increase in temperature, aridity index, number of severe summer droughts and decline in rainfall and moisture index were the major factors for a marginal decline or stagnation in coconut productivity over a period of time, though various developmental schemes were in operation for sustenance of coconut production in the State of Kerala. It can be attributed to global warming and climate change. Therefore, there is a threat to coconut productivity in the ensuing decades due to climate variability and change. In view of the above, there is an urgent need for proactive measures as a part of climate change adaptation to sustain coconut productivity in the State of Kerala.The coconut productivity is more vulnerable to climate variability such as summer droughts rather than climate change in terms of increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, though there was a marginal decrease (1.6%) in the decade of 1981-2009 when compared to that of 1951-80. This aspect needs to be examined in detail by coconut development agencies such as Coconut Development Board and State Agriculture Department for remedial measures. Otherwise, the premier position of Kerala in terms of coconut production is likely to be lost in the ensuing years under the projected climate change scenario. Among the four cultivars studied, Tiptur Tall appears to be superior in terms of reproduction phase and nut yield. This needs to be examined by the coconut breeders in their crop improvement programme as a part of stress tolerant under rainfed conditions. Crop mix and integrated farming are supposed to be the best combination to sustain development in the long run under the projected climate change scenarios. Increase in coconut area under irrigation during summer with better crop management and protection measures also are necessary measures to increase coconut productivity since the frequency of intensity of summer droughts is likely to increase under projected global warming scenario.