ICES and PICES Strategies for Coordinating Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Ecosystems

The social, economic, and ecological consequences of projected climate change on fish and fisheries are issues of global concern. In 2012, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) established a Strategic Initiative on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems (SICCME) to synthesize and to promote innovative, credible, and objective science-based advice on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. SICCME takes advantage of the unique and complementary strengths of the two organizations to develop a research initiative that focuses on their shared interests. A phased implementation will ensure that SICCME will be responsive to a rapidly evolving research area while delivering ongoing syntheses of existing knowledge, thereby advancing new science and methodologies and communicating new insights at each phase.

Impacts of climate change on non-native species

Anthropogenic changes to climate and extreme weather events have already led to the introduction of non-native species (NNS) to the North Atlantic. Regional climate models predict that there will be a continuation of the current trend of warming throughout the 21st century providing enhanced opportunities for NNS at each stage of the invasion process. Increasing evidence is now available to show that climate change has led to the northwards range expansion of a number of NNS in the UK and Ireland, such as the Asian club tunicate Styela clava and the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Providing definitive evidence though of the direct linkage between climate change and the spread of the majority of NNS is extremely challenging, due to other confounding factors, such as anthropogenic activity. Localised patterns of water movement and food supply may also be complicating the overall pattern of northwards range expansion, by preventing the expansion of some NNS, such as the slipper limpet Crepidula fornicata and the Chilean oyster Ostrea chilensis, from a particular region. A greater understanding of the other aspects of climate change and increased atmospheric CO2, such as increased rainfall, heat waves, frequency of storm events, and ocean acidification may aid in increasing the confidence that scientists have in predicting the long term influence of climate change on the introduction, spread and establishment of NNS.

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Impacts of Climate Modes on Air-Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Mid- to late-Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts: multi-proxy evidence from Lake Bliden, Denmark

We conducted multi-proxy geochemical analyses (including measurements of organic carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotope composition, and carbonate carbon and oxygen isotope composition) on a 13.5 m sediment core from Lake Bliden, Denmark, which provide a record of shifting hydrological conditions for the past 6,700 years. The early part of the stratigraphic record (6,700-5,740 cal year BP) was wet, based on delta O-18(carb) and lithology, and corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Shifts in primarily delta O-18(carb) indicate dry conditions prevailed from 5,740 to 2,800 cal year BP, although this was interrupted by very wet conditions from 5,300 to 5,150, 4,300 to 4,050 and 3,700 to 3,450 cal year BP. The timing of the latter two moist intervals is consistent with other Scandinavian paleoclimatic records. Dry conditions at Lake Bliden between 3,450 and 2,800 cal year BP is consistent with other paleolimnological records from southern Sweden but contrasts with records in central Sweden, possibly suggesting a more northerly trajectory of prevailing westerlies carrying moisture from the North Atlantic at this time. Overall, fluctuating moisture conditions at Lake Bliden appear to be strongly linked to changing sea surface temperatures in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian seas. After 2,800 cal year BP, sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) indicate a major reduction on water level, which caused the depositional setting at the coring site to shift from the profundal to littoral zone. The Roman Warm Period (2,200-1,500 cal year BP) appears dry based on enriched delta O-18(carb) values. Possible effects of human disturbance in the watershed after 820 cal year BP complicate attempts to interpret the stratigraphic record although tentative interpretation of the delta O-18(carb), magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) records suggest that the Medieval Warm Period was dry and the Little Ice Age was wet.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Landfill cap models under simulated climate change precipitation::Impacts of cracks and root growth

Desiccation crack formation is a key process that needs to be understood in assessment of landfill cap performance under anticipated future climate change scenarios. The objectives of this study were to examine: (a) desiccation cracks and impacts that roots may have on their formation and resealing, and (b) their impacts on hydraulic conductivity under anticipated climate change precipitation scenarios. Visual observations, image analysis of thin sections and hydraulic conductivity tests were carried out on cores collected from two large-scale laboratory trial landfill cap models (∼80 × 80 × 90 cm) during a year of four simulated seasonal precipitation events. Extensive root growth in the topsoil increased percolation of water into the subsurface, and after droughts, roots grew deep into low-permeability layers through major cracks which impeded their resealing. At the end of 1 year, larger cracks had lost resealing ability and one single, large, vertical crack made the climate change precipitation model cap inefficient. Even though the normal precipitation model had developed desiccation cracks, its integrity was preserved better than the climate change precipitation model.

Potential impacts of climate change on veterinary medicinal residues in livestock produce: An island of Ireland perspective

Residues of veterinary medicines are a food safety issue regulated by European legislation. The occurrence of animal diseases necessitating application of veterinary medicines is significantly affected by global and local climate changes. This review assesses potential impacts of climate change on residues in food produced on the island of Ireland. Use of various classes of veterinary drugs in light of predicted local climate change is reviewed with particular emphasis on anthelmintic drugs and consideration is given to residues accumulating in the environment. Veterinary medicine use is predicted to increase as disease burdens increase due to varied climate effects. Locally relevant mitigation and adaptation strategies are suggested to ensure climate change does not adversely affect food safety via increasing drug residues.