Assessing the influence of irrigation and fertigation on fruit composition, vine performance and wine quality in a cool, humid climate /

A study was devised to evaluate influences of irrigation and fertigation practices on Vitis vinifera and Vitis labruscana grapes in the Niagara Peninsula. A modified FAO Penman- Monteith evapotranspiration formula was used to calculate water budgets and schedule irrigations. Five deficit irrigation treatments (non-irrigated control; deficits imposed postbloom, lag phase, and veraison; fiiU season irrigation) were employed in a Chardonnay vineyard. Transpiration rate (4-7 /xg H20/cmVs) and soil moisture data demonstrated that the control and early deficit treatments were under water stress throughout the season. The fiiU season irrigation treatment showed an 18% (2001) and 19% (2002) increase in yield over control due to increased berry weight. Soluble solids and wine quality were not compromised, and the fiiU season treatment showed similar or higher °Brix than all other treatments. Berry titratable acidity andpH also fell within acceptable levels for all five treatments. Irrigation/fertigation timing trials were conducted on Concord and Niagara vines in 2001- 02. The six Concord treatments consisted of a non-irrigated control, irrigation fi^om Eichhom and Lorenz (EL) stage 12 to harvest, and four fertigation treatments which applied 70 kg/ha urea. The nine Niagara treatments included a non-irrigated control, two irrigated treatments (ceasing at veraison and harvest, respectively) and six fertigation treatments of various durations. Slight yield increases (ca. 10% in Concord; 29% in Niagara) were accompanied by small decreases in soluble solids (1.5°Brix), and methyl anthranilate concentrations. Transpiration rate and soil moisture (1 1.9-16.3%) data suggested that severe water stress was present in these Toledo clay based vineyards.

Impact of different irrigation strategies on grapes and wine quality of four grapevine cultivars (Vitis sp.) in cool climate conditions. An investigation into the relationships among ABA, water status, grape cultivar and wine quality

Niagara Peninsula of Ontario is the largest viticultural area in Canada. Although it is considered to be a cool and wet region, in the last decade many water stress events occurred during the growing seasons with negative effects on grape and wine quality. This study was initiated to understand and develop the best strategies for water management in vineyards and those that might contribute to grape maturity advancement. The irrigation trials investigated the impact of time of initiation (fruit set, lag phase and veraison), water replacement level based on theoretical loss through crop evapotranspiration (ETc; 100,50 and 25%) and different irrigation strategies [partial root zone drying (PRD) versus regulated deficit irrigation (RD!)] on grape composition and wine sensory profiles. The irrigation experiments were conducted in a commercial vineyard (Lambert Vineyards Inc.) located in Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario, from 2005 through 2009. The two experiments that tested the combination of different water regimes and irrigation time initiation were set up in a randomized block design as follows: Baco noir - three replicates x 10 treatments [(25%, 50% and 100% of ETc) x (initiation at fruit set, lag phase and veraison) + control]; Chardonnay - three replicates x seven treatments [(25%, 50% and 100% of ETc) x (initiation at fruit set and veraison) + control]. The experiments that tested different irrigation strategies were set up on two cultivars as follows: Sauvignon blanc - four replicates x four treatments [control, fully irrigated (100% ETc), PRD (100% ETc) and RDI (25% ETc)]; Cabemet Sauvignon - four replicates x five treatments [control, fully irrigated (100% ETc), PRD (100% ETc), RDI (50% ETc) and RDI (25% ETc)]. The controls in each experiment were nonirrigated. The irrigation treatments were compared for many variables related to soil water status, vine physiology, berry composition, wine sensory profile, and hormone composition [(abscisic acid (ABA) and its catabolites]. Soil moisture profile was mostly affected by irrigation treatments between 20 and 60 em depth depending on the grapevine cultivar and the regime of water applied. Overall soil moisture was consistently higher throughout the season in 100 and 50% ETc compare to the control. Transpiration rates and leaf temperature as well as shoot growth rate were the most sensitive variables to soil water status. Drip irrigation associated with RDI treatments (50% ETc and 25% ETc) had the most beneficial effects on vine physiology, fruit composition and wine varietal typicity, mainly by maintaining a balance between vegetative and reproductive parts of the vine. Neither the control nor the 100 ETc had overall a positive effect on grape composition and wine sensory typicity. The time of irrigation initiation affected the vine physiology and grape quality, the most positive effect was found in treatments initiated at lag phase and veraison. RDI treatments were overall more consistent in their positive effect on grape composition and wine varietal typicity comparing to PRD treatment. The greatest difference between non-irrigated and irrigated vines in most of the variables studied was found in 2007, the driest and hottest season of the experimental period. Soil water status had a greater and more consistent effect on red grapevine cultivars rather than on white winegrape cultivars. To understand the relationships among soil and plant water status, plant physiology and the hormonal profiles associated with it, abscisic acid (ABA) and its catabolites [phaseic acid (PA), dihydrophaseic acid (DPA), 7-hydroxy-ABA (TOH-ABA), 8' -hydroxy-ABA, neophaseic acid and abscisic acid glucose ester (ABA-GE)] were analyzed in leaves and berries from the Baco noir and Chardonnay irrigation trials over two growing seasons. ABA and some of its catabolites accurately described the water status in the vines. Endogenous ABA and some of its catabolites were strongly affected in Baco noir and Chardonnay by both the water regime (i.e. ET level) and timing of irrigation initiation. Chardonnay grapevines produced less ABA in both leaves and berries compared to Baco noir, which indicated that ABA synthesis is also cultivar dependant. ABA-GE was the main catabolite in treatments with high water deficits, while PA and DPA were higher in treatments with high water status, suggesting that the vine produced more ABA-GE under water deficits to maintain rapid control of the stomata. These differences between irrigation treatments with respect to ABA and catabolites were particularly noticeable in the dry 2007 season. Two trials using exogenous ABA investigated the effect of different concentrations of ABA and organs targeted for spraying, on grape maturation and berry composition of Cabemet Sauvignon grapevines, in two cool and wet seasons (2008-2009). The fIrst experiment consisted of three replicates x three treatments [(150 and 300 mg/L, both applications only on clusters) + untreated control] while the second experiment consisted in three replicates x four treatments [(full canopy, only clusters, and only leaves sprayed with 300 ppm ABA) + untreated control]. Exogenous ABA was effective in hastening veraison, and improving the composition of Cabemet Sauvignon. Ability of ABA to control the timing of grape berry maturation was dependant on both solution concentration and the target organ. ABA affected not only fruit composition but also yield components. Berries treated with ABA had lower weight and higher skin dry mass, which constitutes qualitative aspects desired in the wine grapes. Temporal advancement of ripening through hormonal control can lead to earlier fruit maturation, which is a distinct advantage in cooler areas or areas with a high risk of early frost occurrence. Exogenous ABA could provide considerable benefits to wine industry in terms of grape composition, wine style and schedule activities in the winery, particularly in wet and cool years. These trials provide the ftrst comprehensive data in eastern North America on the response of important hybrid and Vitis vinifera winegrape cultivars to irrigation management. Results from this study additionally might be a forward step in understanding the ABA metabolism, and its relationship with water status. Future research should be focused on ftnding the ABA threshold required to trigger the ripening process, and how this process could be controlled in cool climates.

Impact of Western Ghats Orography on the Weather and Climate over Southern Peninsular India-A Mesoscale Modelling Study

The thesis gives a general introduction about the topic include India, the spatial and temporal variation of the surface meteorological parameters are dealt in detail. The general pattern of the winds over the region in different seasons and the generation and movements of the thermally and dynamically originated local wind systems of Western Ghats region has been studied. The modification of the prevailing winds over region by the Palghat Gap and its effect on the mouth regions pf the gap is analysed in great depth. The thesis gives the information of climatic elements of the mountain region such as energy budgets, rainfall studies, evaporation and condensation and the variation in the heat fluxes over the region. The impact of orography is studied in a different approach. The type of hypothetical study gives more insight into the control of mountain on the distribution of meteorological parameter over the study region and helps to quantify the impact of the mountain in varying the weather climate of region. The detailed study of the hydro-meteorological aspects of the main river basins of the region also should be included to the climatic studies for the total understanding of the weather and climate over the region.

Studies on arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) in the Alentejo (Portugal) using pea mutants resistant to AM fungi as a control tool for field conditions

The utilization and management of arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) symbiosis may improve production and sustainability of the cropping system. For this purpose, native AM fungi (AMF) were sought and tested for their efficiency to increase plant growth by enhanced P uptake and by alleviation of drought stress. Pot experiments with safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) and pea (Pisum sativum) in five soils (mostly sandy loamy Luvisols) and field experiments with peas were carried out during three years at four different sites. Host plants were grown in heated soils inoculated with AMF or the respective heat sterilized inoculum. In the case of peas, mutants resistant to AMF colonization were used as non-mycorrhizal controls. The mycorrhizal impact on yields and its components, transpiration, and P and N uptake was studied in several experiments, partly under varying P and N levels and water supply. Screening of native AMF by most probable number bioassays was not very meaningful. Soil monoliths were placed in the open to simulate field conditions. Inoculation with a native AMF mix improved grain yield, shoot and leaf growth variables as compared to control. Exposed to drought, higher soil water depletion of mycorrhizal plants resulted in a haying-off effect. The growth response to this inoculum could not be significantly reproduced in a subsequent open air pot experiment at two levels of irrigation and P fertilization, however, safflower grew better at higher P and water supply by multiples. The water use efficiency concerning biomass was improved by the AMF inoculum in the two experiments. Transpiration rates were not significantly affected by AM but as a tendency were higher in non-mycorrhizal safflower. A fundamental methodological problem in mycorrhiza field research is providing an appropriate (negative) control for the experimental factor arbuscular mycorrhiza. Soil sterilization or fungicide treatment have undesirable side effects in field and greenhouse settings. Furthermore, artificial rooting, temperature and light conditions in pot experiments may interfere with the interpretation of mycorrhiza effects. Therefore, the myc- pea mutant P2 was tested as a non-mycorrhizal control in a bioassay to evaluate AMF under field conditions in comparison to the symbiotic isogenetic wild type of var. FRISSON as a new integrative approach. However, mutant P2 is also of nod- phenotype and therefore unable to fix N2. A 3-factorial experiment was carried out in a climate chamber at high NPK fertilization to examine the two isolines under non-symbiotic and symbiotic conditions. P2 achieved the same (or higher) biomass as wild type both under good and poor water supply. However, inoculation with the AMF Glomus manihot did not improve plant growth. Differences of grain and straw yields in field trials were large (up to 80 per cent) between those isogenetic pea lines mainly due to higher P uptake under P and water limited conditions. The lacking N2 fixation in mutants was compensated for by high mineral N supply as indicated by the high N status of the pea mutant plants. This finding was corroborated by the results of a major field experiment at three sites with two levels of N fertilization. The higher N rate did not affect grain or straw yields of the non-fixing mutants. Very efficient AMF were detected in a Ferric Luvisol on pasture land as revealed by yield levels of the evaluation crop and by functional vital staining of highly colonized roots. Generally, levels of grain yield were low, at between 40 and 980 kg ha-1. An additional pot trial was carried out to elucidate the strong mycorrhizal effect in the Ferric Luvisol. A triplication of the plant equivalent field P fertilization was necessary to compensate for the mycorrhizal benefit which was with five times higher grain yield very similar to that found in the field experiment. However, the yield differences between the two isolines were not always plausible as the evaluation variable because they were also found in (small) field test trials with apparently sufficient P and N supply and in a soil of almost no AMF potential. This similarly occurred for pea lines of var. SPARKLE and its non-fixing mycorrhizal (E135) and non-symbiotic (R25) isomutants, which were tested in order to exclude experimentally undesirable benefits by N2 fixation. In contrast to var. FRISSON, SPARKLE was not a suitable variety for Mediterranean field conditions. This raises suspicion putative genetic defects other than symbiotic ones may be effective under field conditions, which would conflict with the concept of an appropriate control. It was concluded that AMF resistant plants may help to overcome fundamental problems of present research on arbuscular mycorrhiza, but may create new ones.

Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern, Nigeria

Poor adaptation to climate change is a major threat to sustainable rice production in Nigeria. Determinants of appropriate climate-change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern Nigeria have not been fully investigated. In this study, the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern Nigeria were investigated. Data were obtained through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and field survey conducted in the study areas. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools such as percentage and regression analysis. The major climate change adaptation strategies used by the respondents included; planting improved rice variety such as Federal Agricultural Research Oryza (FARO) (80.5 %), seeking early warning information (80.9 %), shifting planting date until the weather condition was favourable (99.1 %), and using chemical fertilizer on their farms in order to maintain soil fertility (20.5 %). The determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by the farmers, included access to early warning information (β=43.04), access to fertilizer (β=5.78), farm plot size (β=–12.04) and access to regular water supply (β=–24.79). Climate change adaptation required provision of incentives to farmers, training on drought and flood control, and the use of improved technology to obtain higher yield.

Effects of shoot pruning and inflorescence thinning on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of greenhouse tomatoes in a tropical climate

The combined effects of shoot pruning (one or two stems) and inflorescence thinning (five or ten flowers per inflorescence) on greenhouse tomato yield and fruit quality were studied during the dry season (DS) and rainy season (RS) in Central Thailand. Poor fruit set, development of undersized (mostly parthenocarpic) fruits, as well as the physiological disorders blossom-end rot (BER) and fruit cracking (FC) turned out to be the prevailing causes deteriorating fruit yield and quality. The proportion of marketable fruits was less than 10% in the RS and around 65% in the DS. In both seasons, total yield was significantly increased when plants were cultivated with two stems, resulting in higher marketable yields only in the DS. While the fraction of undersized fruits was increased in both seasons when plants were grown with a secondary stem, the proportions of BER and FC were significantly reduced. Restricting the number of flowers per inflorescence invariably resulted in reduced total yield. However, in neither season did fruit load considerably affect quantity or proportion of the marketable yield fraction. Inflorescence thinning tended to promote BER and FC, an effect which was only significant for BER in the RS. In conclusion, for greenhouse tomato production under climate conditions as they are prevalent in Central Thailand, the cultivation with two stems appears to be highly recommendable whereas the measures to control fruit load tested in this study did not proof to be advisable.

Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy

Existing fuel taxes play a major role in determining the welfare effects of exempting the transportation sector from measures to control greenhouse gases. To study this phenomenon we modify the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to disaggregate the household transportation sector. This improvement requires an extension of the GTAP data set that underlies the model. The revised and extended facility is then used to compare economic costs of cap-and-trade systems differentiated by sector, focusing on two regions: the USA where the fuel taxes are low, and Europe where the fuel taxes are high. We find that the interplay between carbon policies and pre-existing taxes leads to different results in these regions: in the USA exemption of transport from such a system would increase the welfare cost of achieving a national emissions target, while in Europe such exemptions will correct pre-existing distortions and reduce the cost.

Factors influencing zooplankton size structure at contrasting temperatures in coastal shallow lakes: Implications for effects of climate change

We assessed the importance of temperature, salinity, and predation for the size structure of zooplankton and provided insight into the future ecological structure and function of shallow lakes in a warmer climate. Artificial plants were introduced in eight comparable coastal shallow brackish lakes located at two contrasting temperatures: cold-temperate and Mediterranean climate region. Zooplankton, fish, and macroinvertebrates were sampled within the plants and at open-water habitats. The fish communities of these brackish lakes were characterized by small-sized individuals, highly associated with submerged plants. Overall, higher densities of small planktivorous fish were recorded in the Mediterranean compared to the cold-temperate region, likely reflecting temperature-related differences as have been observed in freshwater lakes. Our results suggest that fish predation is the major control of zooplankton size structure in brackish lakes, since fish density was related to a decrease in mean body size and density of zooplankton and this was reflected in a unimodal shaped biomass-size spectrum with dominance of small sizes and low size diversity. Salinity might play a more indirect role by shaping zooplankton communities toward more salt-tolerant species. In a global-warming perspective, these results suggest that changes in the trophic structure of shallow lakes in temperate regions might be expected as a result of the warmer temperatures and the potentially associated increases in salinity. The decrease in the density of largebodied zooplankton might reduce the grazing on phytoplankton and thus the chances of maintaining the clear water state in these ecosystems

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

Magnitude of climate variability during middle Pliocene warmth: a palaeoclimate modelling study

The nature and magnitude of climatic variability during the period of middle Pliocene warmth (ca 3.29–2.97 Ma) is poorly understood. We present a suite of palaeoclimate modelling experiments incorporating an advanced atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a Q-flux ocean model for 3.29, 3.12 and 2.97 Ma BP. Astronomical solutions for the periods in question were derived from the Berger and Loutre BL2 astronomical solution. Boundary conditions, excluding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which were predicted by the slab-ocean model, were provided from the USGS PRISM2 2°×2° digital data set. The model results indicate that little annual variation (0.5°C) in SSTs, relative to a ‘control’ experiment, occurred during the middle Pliocene in response to the altered orbital configurations. Annual surface air temperatures also displayed little variation. Seasonally, surface air temperatures displayed a trend of cooler temperatures during December, January and February, and warmer temperatures during June, July and August. This pattern is consistent with altered seasonality resulting from the prescribed orbital configurations. Precipitation changes follow the seasonal trend observed for surface air temperature. Compared to present-day, surface wind strength and wind stress over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean remained greater in each of the Pliocene experiments. This suggests that wind-driven gyral circulation may have been consistently greater during the middle Pliocene. The trend of climatic variability predicted by the GCM for the middle Pliocene accords with geological data. However, it is unclear if the model correctly simulates the magnitude of the variation. This uncertainty is derived from, (a) the relative insensitivity of the GCM to perturbation in the imposed boundary conditions, (b) a lack of detailed time series data concerning changes to terrestrial ice cover and greenhouse gas concentrations for the middle Pliocene and (c) difficulties in representing the effects of ‘climatic history’ in snap-shot GCM experiments.

Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model

In the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the oceanic heat storage did not vary too much, then the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary too much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transport should be equal and opposite. This simple scenario has become known as Bjerknes compensation. A long control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) has been investigated. It was found that northern extratropical decadal anomalies of atmospheric and oceanic energy transports are significantly anticorrelated and have similar magnitudes, which is consistent with the predictions of Bjerknes compensation. ne degree of compensation in the northern extratropics was found to increase with increasing, time scale. Bjerknes compensation did not occur in the Tropics, primarily as large changes in the surface fluxes were associated with large changes in the TOA fluxes. In the ocean, the decadal variability of the energy transport is associated with fluctuations in the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. A stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to strong warming of surface temperatures in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. which results in a reduced equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient and reduced atmospheric baroclinicity. It is argued that a stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to a weakened atmospheric transient energy transport.