Change-point detection in environmental time series based on the informational approach

In this study, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is applied in order to detect change-points in the time series of surface water quality variables. The application of change-point analysis allowed detecting change-points in both the mean and the variance in series under study. Time variations in environmental data are complex and they can hinder the identification of the so-called change-points when traditional models are applied to this type of problems. The assumptions of normality and uncorrelation are not present in some time series, and so, a simulation study is carried out in order to evaluate the methodology’s performance when applied to non-normal data and/or with time correlation.

Building information modelling : an issue of adoption and change management

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an IT enabled technology that allows storage, management, sharing, access, update and use of all the data relevant to a project through out the project life-cycle in the form of a data repository. BIM enables improved inter-disciplinary collaboration across distributed teams, intelligent documentation and information retrieval, greater consistency in building data, better conflict detection and enhanced facilities management. While the technology itself may not be new, and similar approaches have been in use in some other sectors like Aircraft and Automobile industry for well over a decade now, the AEC/FM (Architecture, Engineering and Construction/ Facilities Management) industry is still to catch up with them in its ability to exploit the benefits of the IT revolution. Though the potential benefits of the technology in terms of knowledge sharing, project management, project co-ordination and collaboration are near to obvious, the adoption rate has been rather lethargic, inspite of some well directed efforts and availability of supporting commercial tools. Since the technology itself has been well tested over the years in some other domains the plausible causes must be rooted well beyond the explanation of the ‘Bell Curve of innovation adoption’. This paper discusses the preliminary findings of an ongoing research project funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC-CI) which aims to identify these gaps and come up with specifications and guidelines to enable greater adoption of the BIM approach in practice. A detailed literature review is conducted that looks at some of the similar research reported in the recent years. A desktop audit of some of the existing commercial tools that support BIM application has been conducted to identify the technological issues and concerns, and a workshop was organized with industry partners and various players in the AEC industry for needs analysis, expectations and feedback on the possible deterrents and inhibitions surrounding the BIM adoption.

Characterising anomalous events using change point correlation on unsolicited network traffic

Monitoring unused or dark IP addresses offers opportunities to extract useful information about both on-going and new attack patterns. In recent years, different techniques have been used to analyze such traffic including sequential analysis where a change in traffic behavior, for example change in mean, is used as an indication of malicious activity. Change points themselves say little about detected change; further data processing is necessary for the extraction of useful information and to identify the exact cause of the detected change which is limited due to the size and nature of observed traffic. In this paper, we address the problem of analyzing a large volume of such traffic by correlating change points identified in different traffic parameters. The significance of the proposed technique is two-fold. Firstly, automatic extraction of information related to change points by correlating change points detected across multiple traffic parameters. Secondly, validation of the detected change point by the simultaneous presence of another change point in a different parameter. Using a real network trace collected from unused IP addresses, we demonstrate that the proposed technique enables us to not only validate the change point but also extract useful information about the causes of change points.

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).

Detection and Estimation of Nonstationary Power Transients

This chapter looks at issues of non-stationarity in determining when a transient has occurred and when it is possible to fit a linear model to a non-linear response. The first issue is associated with the detection of loss of damping of power system modes. When some control device such as an SVC fails, the operator needs to know whether the damping of key power system oscillation modes has deteriorated significantly. This question is posed here as an alarm detection problem rather than an identification problem to get a fast detection of a change. The second issue concerns when a significant disturbance has occurred and the operator is seeking to characterize the system oscillation. The disturbance initially is large giving a nonlinear response; this then decays and can then be smaller than the noise level ofnormal customer load changes. The difficulty is one of determining when a linear response can be reliably identified between the non-linear phase and the large noise phase of thesignal. The solution proposed in this chapter uses “Time-Frequency” analysis tools to assistthe extraction of the linear model.

Improved correlation-based modal strain energy method for global damage detection of truss bridge structures

The previous investigations have shown that the modal strain energy correlation method, MSEC, could successfully identify the damage of truss bridge structures. However, it has to incorporate the sensitivity matrix to estimate damage and is not reliable in certain damage detection cases. This paper presents an improved MSEC method where the prediction of modal strain energy change vector is differently obtained by running the eigensolutions on-line in optimisation iterations. The particular trail damage treatment group maximising the fitness function close to unity is identified as the detected damage location. This improvement is then compared with the original MSEC method along with other typical correlation-based methods on the finite element model of a simple truss bridge. The contributions to damage detection accuracy of each considered mode is also weighed and discussed. The iterative searching process is operated by using genetic algorithm. The results demonstrate that the improved MSEC method suffices the demand in detecting the damage of truss bridge structures, even when noised measurement is considered.

Efficient clustering approach for intrusion detection in adhoc networks

Mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) are temporary wireless networks useful in emergency rescue services, battlefields operations, mobile conferencing and a variety of other useful applications. Due to dynamic nature and lack of centralized monitoring points, these networks are highly vulnerable to attacks. Intrusion detection systems (IDS) provide audit and monitoring capabilities that offer the local security to a node and help to perceive the specific trust level of other nodes. We take benefit of the clustering concept in MANETs for the effective communication between nodes, where each cluster involves a number of member nodes and is managed by a cluster-head. It can be taken as an advantage in these battery and memory constrained networks for the purpose of intrusion detection, by separating tasks for the head and member nodes, at the same time providing opportunity for launching collaborative detection approach. The clustering schemes are generally used for the routing purposes to enhance the route efficiency. However, the effect of change of a cluster tends to change the route; thus degrades the performance. This paper presents a low overhead clustering algorithm for the benefit of detecting intrusion rather than efficient routing. It also discusses the intrusion detection techniques with the help of this simplified clustering scheme.

Damage detection for truss bridge structures using correlation-based structural modal strain energy

This paper presents the feasibility of using structural modal strain energy as a parameter employed in correlation- based damage detection method for truss bridge structures. It is an extension of the damage detection method adopting multiple damage location assurance criterion. In this paper, the sensitivity of modal strain energy to damage obtained from the analytical model is incorporated into the correlation objective function. Firstly, the sensitivity matrix of modal strain energy to damage is conducted offline, and for an arbitrary damage case, the correlation coefficient (objective function) is calculated by multiplying the sensitivity matrix and damage vector. Then, a genetic algorithm is used to iteratively search the damage vector maximising the correlation between the corresponding modal strain energy change (hypothesised) and its counterpart in measurement. The proposed method is simulated and compared with the conventional methods, e.g. frequency-error method, coordinate modal assurance criterion and multiple damage location assurance criterion using mode shapes on a numerical truss bridge structure. The result demonstrates the modal strain energy correlation method is able to yield acceptable damage detection outcomes with less computing efforts, even in a noise contaminated condition.

Use of IP addresses for high rate flooding attack detection

High-rate flooding attacks (aka Distributed Denial of Service or DDoS attacks) continue to constitute a pernicious threat within the Internet domain. In this work we demonstrate how using packet source IP addresses coupled with a change-point analysis of the rate of arrival of new IP addresses may be sufficient to detect the onset of a high-rate flooding attack. Importantly, minimizing the number of features to be examined, directly addresses the issue of scalability of the detection process to higher network speeds. Using a proof of concept implementation we have shown how pre-onset IP addresses can be efficiently represented using a bit vector and used to modify a “white list” filter in a firewall as part of the mitigation strategy.

Sensitivity of the lane change test as a measure of in-vehicle system demand

The Lane Change Test (LCT) is one of the growing number of methods developed to quantify driving performance degradation brought about by the use of in-vehicle devices. Beyond its validity and reliability, for such a test to be of practical use, it must also be sensitive to the varied demands of individual tasks. The current study evaluated the ability of several recent LCT lateral control and event detection parameters to discriminate between visual-manual and cognitive surrogate In-Vehicle Information System tasks with different levels of demand. Twenty-seven participants (mean age 24.4 years) completed a PC version of the LCT while performing visual search and math problem solving tasks. A number of the lateral control metrics were found to be sensitive to task differences, but the event detection metrics were less able to discriminate between tasks. The mean deviation and lane excursion measures were able to distinguish between the visual and cognitive tasks, but were less sensitive to the different levels of task demand. The other LCT metrics examined were less sensitive to task differences. A major factor influencing the sensitivity of at least some of the LCT metrics could be the type of lane change instructions given to participants. The provision of clear and explicit lane change instructions and further refinement of its metrics will be essential for increasing the utility of the LCT as an evaluation tool.

Analysis of detection performance in spectrum sensing optimisation for long sensing periods

Spectrum sensing optimisation techniques maximise the efficiency of spectrum sensing while satisfying a number of constraints. Many optimisation models consider the possibility of the primary user changing activity state during the secondary user's transmission period. However, most ignore the possibility of activity change during the sensing period. The observed primary user signal during sensing can exhibit a duty cycle which has been shown to severely degrade detection performance. This paper shows that (a) the probability of state change during sensing cannot be neglected and (b) the true detection performance obtained when incorporating the duty cycle of the primary user signal can deviate significantly from the results expected with the assumption of no such duty cycle.

Use of first nucleotide change technology to determine the frequency of factor V Leiden in a population of Australian blood donors

Activated protein C resistance (APCR), the most common risk factor for venous thrombosis, is the result of a G to A base substitution at nucleotide 1691 (R506Q) in the factor V gene. Current techniques to detect the factor V Leiden mutation, such as determination of restriction length polymorphisms, do not have the capacity to screen large numbers of samples in a rapid, cost- effective test. The aim of this study was to apply the first nucleotide change (FNC) technology, to the detection of the factor V Leiden mutation. After preliminary amplification of genomic DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), an allele-specific primer was hybridised to the PCR product and extended using fluorescent terminating dideoxynucleotides which were detected by colorimetric assay. Using this ELISA-based assay, the prevalence of the factor V Leiden mutation was determined in an Australian blood donor population (n = 500). A total of 18 heterozygotes were identified (3.6%) and all of these were confirmed with conventional MnlI restriction digest. No homozygotes for the variant allele were detected. We conclude from this study that the frequency of 3.6% is compatible with others published for Caucasian populations. In addition, the FNC technology shows promise as the basis for a rapid, automated DNA based test for factor V Leiden.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Assessment of “change in flexibility method” in structural health monitoring systems

The modern structural diagnosis process is rely on vibration characteristics to assess safer serviceability level of the structure. This paper examines the potential of change in flexibility method to use in damage detection process and two main practical constraints associated with it. The first constraint addressed in this paper is reduction in number of data acquisition points due to limited number of sensors. Results conclude that accuracy of the change in flexibility method is influenced by the number of data acquisition points/sensor locations in real structures. Secondly, the effect of higher modes on damage detection process has been studied. This addresses the difficulty of extracting higher order modal data with available sensors. Four damage indices have been presented to identify their potential of damage detection with respect to different locations and severity of damage. A simply supported beam with two degrees of freedom at each node is considered only for a single damage cases throughout the paper.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.