Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

How Teresa and Maria Margaretha migrated to Nordstrand: Translation of Relics and Transformation of a German Island into a Catholic Dutch enclave in the 17th century

When on 26 May 1662 the founding first stone was laid for a new church on the island Nordstrand at the coast of Schleswig, relics of Teresa of Avila (1515-1582) and of the Dutch Carmelite abbess Maria Margaretha ab Angelis (1605-1658) were inserted. This church was built for Dutch dyke builders who were called to reconstruct the island after its destruction by flood in 1634; coming from a Catholic background and from the Dutch Republic which was at war with Spain at that time, the dyke builders and their families were guaranteed religious freedom in the Lutheran duchy of Holstein. In this paper, the reasons for the choice for the Spanish mystic Teresa of Avila and for the Dutch Carmelite abbess Maria Margaretha are discussed. The latter patroness was never beatified but had died in the smell of holiness; after her death several miracles were ascribed to her. It is understandable that migrants brought relics of their appreciated holy persons who would remind them of their homeland. The paper will first shortly introduce the two patronesses of the church. In the second part, the reasons for this choice will be discussed. Behind this translation of relics not only spiritual reasons played a role. The function of the translation of the saints was first to keep up geographical and political connections with the old country (both Spain and the Netherlands), secondly to perpetuate personal-familial relationships (esp. with Maria Margaretha), thirdly to strengthen the confessional identity in a non-Catholic environment. Fourthly the transfer brought a certain model of Christian life and reform to the new place of living, which in the second part of the 17th century became marked as “Jansenist”. The paper shows the transformation of the island into an enclave of Dutch Catholic culture.

Age model and stable oxygen isotope mean values of ice core SZ99 from Akademii Nauk ice cap on Severnaya Zemlya

Between 1999 and 2001, a 724 m long ice core was drilled on Akademii Nauk, the largest glacier on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic. The drilling site is located near the summit. The core is characterized by high melt-layer content. The melt layers are caused by melting and even by rain during the summer. We present high-resolution data of density, electrical conductivity (dielectrical profiling), stable water isotopes and melt-layer content for the upper 136 m (120 m w.e.) of the ice core. The dating by isotopic cycles and electrical conductivity peak identification suggests that this core section covers approximately the past 275 years. Singularities of volcanogenic and anthropogenic origin provide well-defined additional time markers. Long-term temperatures inferred from 12 year running mean averages of d18O reach their lowest level in the entire record around 1790. Thereafter the d18O values indicate a continuously increasing mean temperature on the Akademii Nauk ice cap until 1935, interrupted only by minor cooling episodes. The 20th century is found to be the warmest period in this record.