Geographical partitioning of goat diversity in Europe and the Middle East

Thirty microsatellite markers were analysed in 1426 goats from 45 traditional or rare breeds in 15 European and Middle Eastern countries. In all populations inbreeding was indicated by heterozygosity deficiency (mean FIS = 0.10). Genetic differentiation between breeds was moderate with a mean FST value of 0.07, but for most (c. 71%) northern and central European breeds, individuals could be assigned to their breeds with a success rate of more than 80%. Bayesian-based clustering analysis of allele frequencies and multivariate analysis revealed at least four discrete clusters: eastern Mediterranean (Middle East), central Mediterranean, western Mediterranean and central/northern Europe. About 41% of the genetic variability among the breeds could be explained by their geographical origin. A decrease in genetic diversity from the south-east to the north-west was accompanied by an increase in the level of differentiation at the breed level. These observations support the hypothesis that domestic livestock migrated from the Middle East towards western and northern Europe and indicate that breed formation was more systematic in north-central Europe than in the Middle East. We propose that breed differentiation and molecular diversity are independent criteria for conservation.

Central European plant species from more productive habitats are more invasive at a global scale

Aim: Accumulating evidence indicates that species may be pre-adapted for invasion success in new ranges. In the light of increasing global nutrient accumulation, an important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is the ability to grow in nutrient-rich habitats. Therefore we tested whether globally invasive species originating from Central Europe have come from more productive rather than less productive habitats. A further important candidate pre-adaptation for invasiveness is large niche width. Therefore, we also tested whether species able to grow across habitats with a wider range of productivity are more invasive. Location: Global with respect to invasiveness, and Central European with respect to origin of study species. Methods  We examined whether average habitat productivity and its width across habitats are significant predictors of the success of Central European species as aliens and as weeds elsewhere in the world based on data in the Global Compendium of Weeds. The two habitat productivity measures were derived from nutrient indicator values (after Ellenberg) of accompanying species present in vegetation records of the comprehensive Czech National Phytosociological Database. In the analyses, we accounted for phylogenetic relatedness among species and for size of the native distribution ranges. Results: Species from more productive habitats and with a wider native habitat-productivity niche in Central Europe have higher alien success elsewhere in the world. Weediness of species increased with mean habitat productivity. Niche width was also an important determinant of weediness for species with their main occurrence in nutrient-poor habitats, but not for those from nutrient-rich habitats. Main conclusions: Our results indicate that Central European plant species from productive habitats and those species from nutrient-poor habitat with wide productivity-niche are pre-adapted to become invasive. These results suggest that the world-wide invasion success of many Central European species is likely to have been promoted by the global increase of resource-rich habitats.

Effects of forest management on the diversity of deadwood-inhabiting fungi in Central European forests

Land use and land use change affect deadwood amount, quality and associated biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Old growth or virgin forests, which are exceptionally rare in temperate Europe harbor more deadwood and associated fungal species than managed forests. Whether and how more recent abandonment of management, to reestablish more natural forests, affects deadwood amount and fungal diversity on deadwood is unknown. Our main aim was to compare deadwood amount, characteristics and deadwood inhabiting fungi in differently managed forest types typical for large areas of Central Europe. We sampled deadwood inhabiting fungi on 27 forest plots of 400 m2 each in three geographically distant regions in Germany. Three forest management types, namely managed coniferous, managed deciduous and unmanaged deciduous forests, were represented by nine plots each. In autumn 2008 we collected all fungal fruiting bodies on deadwood >7 cm of diameter. We found deadwood amounts and fungal species numbers in unmanaged forests to be lower than in managed forests, which we attributed to the lack of natural tree death during the short time since management abandonment of usually 10–30 years. However, rarefaction analysis among deadwood items in forest plots indicated a slightly higher species density in unmanaged forests, which may be the first signal of a positive effect on fungal species richness on deadwood after management was abandoned. Although the three study regions span a large geographical gradient, we did not detect differences in the fungal species composition or in deadwood amounts and patterns, which reflects the wide distribution of this group of organisms and points to consistent management procedures among study regions. A very clear composition difference however occurred between deciduous and coniferous wood showing species substrate specialization. We conclude that the amount of deadwood is the main driver of deadwood fungal species richness, and substrate diversity in terms of various decay degrees, deadwood tree species and deadwood size are also important. Thus, to promote species richness of deadwood fungi it is vital to enhance deadwood amounts and diversity

New data on the Lateglacial period of SW Europe: a high resolution multiproxy record from Laguna de la Roya (NW Iberia)

High-resolution multiproxy analyses were performed on a 128 cm section of organic sediments accumulated in a small mountain lake in NW Iberia (Laguna de la Roya, 1608 m asl). The pollen stratigraphy together with radiocarbon dating provided the basis for a chronology ranging from 15,600 to 10,500 cal yr BP. Chironomid-inferred July air temperatures suggest a temperature range from 7 to 13 degrees C, also evidencing two well-established cold periods which may be equivalent to the INTIMATE stages GS-2a and GS-1. Furthermore, a number of short cold events (with summer temperatures dropping about 0.5-1 degrees C) appear intercalated within the Lateglacial Interstadial (possibly equivalent to the INTIMATE cold events GI-1d, GI-1c2 and GI-1b) and the early Holocene (possibly equivalent to the 11.2 k event). The temperature variations predicted by our reconstruction allow explaining the changes in local conditions and productivity of the lake inferred from the biological record of the same sediment core. Furthermore, they also agree with the local and regional vegetation dynamics, and the main oscillations deduced for the vegetation belts. Based on its chronology our multiproxy record indicates a similar temperature development in NW Iberia as inferred by the Greenland delta O-18 record, the marine deep-sea records off the Atlantic Iberian Margin, and other chironomid-based Lateglacial temperature reconstructions from Europe. Nevertheless, the impact of most of the less intense Lateglacial/early Holocene cold events in NW Iberia was most probably limited to very sensitive sites that were very close to ecotonal situations. Particularly, our new pollen record indicates that they were represented as three minor environmental crises occurring during the Lateglacial Interestadial in this area. The Older Dryas event (in our usage corresponding to the Aegelsee Oscillation in Central Europe and event GI-1d in central Greenland) has previously been described in this region, but its age and duration (ca 14,250-14050 cal yr BP) is now better constrained. The two subsequent stages, La Roya I (ca 13,600-13,400 cal yr BP) and La Roya II (ca 13,300-12,900 cal yr BP) have been described for first time in NW Iberia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annexations in Europe and the Persecution of Jews, 1939-1944

This contribution tries to explain why Jews were persecuted earlier or more fiercely in territories annexed by a state during World War II than in the mainland of that state. The case-studies covered are Nazi Germany, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and the USSR. It is argued that internationally, similar policies of incorporation, especially the replacement of existing elites and the process of bringing in new settlers, worked against the Jews. Aside from focusing on governmental policies, the contribution also sketches the manner in which individual actions by state functionaries (who did not merely implement state policies) and by non-state actors had adverse effects on the Jewish population, impacting their survival chances. Finally, the article places the persecution of Jews in annexed areas in the context of the concerted violence conducted, at the same time, against other ethnically defined, religious, and social groups.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a novel intermediate host for Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe

A typical multivesiculated metacestode tissue has been found in the liver of a European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) originating from a northern area of Switzerland. In this study, the causative species was identified as Echinococcus multilocularis by appropriate histological and molecular analyses and corresponding DNA sequencing. This is the first confirmation of larval E. multilocularis from hares in central Europe. The metacestode tissue contained protoscolices, suggesting that the hare may contribute to the transmission of E. multilocularis in Switzerland.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a Western Central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (δD) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of δ17O excess derived from precise measurement of δ17O and δ18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17O excess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (δD,δ17O and δ18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean δD,δ18O and δ17O are -71.0‰, -9.9‰, -5.2‰ for precipitation, -60.3‰, -8.7‰, -4.6‰ for cave drip water and -61.3‰, -8.3‰, -4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17O excess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (Δ of ~ + 10‰ for δD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8 - 10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first δ17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the δ17 O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Cryptic invasion drives phenotypic changes in central European threespine stickleback

Cryptic invasions are commonly associated with genetic changes of the native species or genetic lineage that the invaders replace. Phenotypic shifts resulting from cryptic invasions are less commonly reported given the relative paucity of historical specimens that document such phenotypic changes. Here, I study such a case in two populations of threespine stickleback from central Europe, comparing contemporary patterns of gene flow with phenotypic changes between historical and contemporary population samples. I find gene flow from an invasive lineage to be associated with significant phenotypic changes, where the degree of phenotypic change corresponds with the level of gene flow that a population receives. These findings underline the utility of combining genetic approaches with phenotypic data to estimate the impact of gene flow in systems where anthropogenic alterations have removed former geographic barriers promoting cryptic invasions.

Late presentation for HIV care across Europe: update from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) study, 2010 to 2013.

Late presentation (LP) for HIV care across Europe remains a significant issue. We provide a cross-European update from 34 countries on the prevalence and risk factors of LP for 2010-2013. People aged ≥ 16 presenting for HIV care (earliest of HIV-diagnosis, first clinic visit or cohort enrollment) after 1 January 2010 with available CD4 count within six months of presentation were included. LP was defined as presentation with a CD4 count < 350/mm(3) or an AIDS defining event (at any CD4), in the six months following HIV diagnosis. Logistic regression investigated changes in LP over time. A total of 30,454 people were included. The median CD4 count at presentation was 368/mm(3) (interquartile range (IQR) 193-555/mm(3)), with no change over time (p = 0.70). In 2010, 4,775/10,766 (47.5%) were LP whereas in 2013, 1,642/3,375 (48.7%) were LP (p = 0.63). LP was most common in central Europe (4,791/9,625, 49.8%), followed by northern (5,704/11,692; 48.8%), southern (3,550/7,760; 45.8%) and eastern Europe (541/1,377; 38.3%; p < 0.0001). There was a significant increase in LP in male and female people who inject drugs (PWID) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)/year later 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.32), and a significant decline in LP in northern Europe (aOR/year later 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85-0.94). Further improvements in effective HIV testing strategies, with a focus on vulnerable groups, are required across the European continent.

Holes in the skies over NATO's Central European member states. OSW Commentary No. 119, 22.10.2013

Over the past few months, four Central European states have made decisions which will determine the shape of their air forces over the next decade. On 11 October, Romania signed a contract under which it will buy twelve used US F-16A/B multi-role fighter aircraft from Portugal. In August, Slovakia signed contracts with Russia’s MiG for repairs and the limited modernisation of its twelve MiG-29 fighter aircraft currently in service. The Czech Republic entered into a preliminary agreement in July with Sweden on extending the lease of fourteen JAS-39 Gripen multi-role fighter aircraft (the new Czech government will hammer out the details following the parliamentary election). Bulgaria, which has been facing financial problems and political instability, in June postponed the purchase of new (non-Soviet) combat aircraft at least until the end of this year. If Sofia decides to buy any within the next few years, these will be not more than twelve relatively old and worn-out machines (most likely F-16A/B from Portuguese or Dutch army surplus). Given the fact that Hungary in 2012 made the same decision regarding its fourteen Gripen aircraft as the Czech Republic, there are good grounds to claim that the capabilities Central European NATO member states have to take action in airspace are durably limited. The region’s saturation with combat aircraft is the lowest when compared to the entire continent (with the exception of the Baltic states). Furthermore, the machines to be used in the coming decade will be the oldest and the least advanced technologically (all of them belong to the so-called “fourth generation”, the roots of which date back to the 1970s). The problem with gaining full interoperability within NATO has not been resolved in its Central European member states. By modernising its MiG-29 aircraft, Slovakia is to say the least postponing the achievement of interoperability once again. Bulgaria will gain interoperability by buying any Western combat aircraft. However, it is very unlikely to introduce new machines into service earlier than at the end of the present decade. Since the introduction of new fifth generation multi-role combat aircraft or transitional 4+ generation machines in the region’s air forces is unrealistic, the defence of the airspace of NATO member states in Central Europe can be termed an ever more porous sky.

Breaking the boundaries. The transformation of Central European gas markets. OSW Point of View Number 46, December 2014

According to the European Council decision of February 2011, the process of creating the European Union’s internal gas market should be completed by the end of 2014. Therefore, it is worth summarising the changes which have taken place in the gas markets of Central Europe so far. The past few years have seen not only a period of gradual ‘marketisation’ of the national gas sectors, but also the building of new gas infrastructure, a redrawing of the gas flow map, and changes in the ownership of the Central European gas companies. Another change in Central Europe is the fact that individual states and companies are moving away from their traditional focus on their national gas markets; instead, they are beginning to develop a variety of concepts for the regional integration of Central European markets. This publication attempts to grasp the main elements of the ongoing transformation of Central Europe’s gas markets, with particular emphasis on the situation in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.

The Central European Predicament. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 9, May 2014

From Introduction. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has experienced a very deep economic and political transformation since the beginning of the nineties. The early years of transition were characterized by big hopes for a quick and successful development. The international community, including the EU and the USA showed interest in the transformation of the region for a number of reasons. From a geopolitical perspective, the transformation was of tremendous importance as it confirmed the end of the cold war and the bipolar global system was replaced first by a unipolar superpower system and later gave way to a multipolar or a new bipolar system. This also signaled the weakness of the Soviet Union (and later Russia), as it was not able to prevent this transformation and was soon mired in a serious and long lasting economic and political crisis that undermined its international position. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union during the nineties Russia remained very weak, both economically and politically. The power vacuum and the transformation in Central Europe made the establishment of a new international economic and security structure possible. The new economic and political pattern that started to develop within the region was based on the liberal market economy model, with the objective of opening up markets and integrating the region into the world economy and the North Atlantic security structure.