The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

The LTTE Proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority and Future of the Peace Process in Sri Lanka

The political brinkmanship of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam has been illustrated vividly by the way in which it brought forward its proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the United National Front Government. In the proposals the LTTE articulated its political intentions in concrete constitutional terms for the first time. The Proposals rationalize the armed struggle and a contractual agreement outside the Constitution. The plenary powers of the ISGA exceed the federal formula; effectively exclude the institutions of the state of Sri Lanka from the North-East; and clear the route for a separate state. This situation demands a redirection of the peace process which requires a clear political vision and a proper strategy with alternative proposals on the part of the government. In the face of present impasse of the peace process the challenges before the new Freedom Alliance government are formidable.

Der grössere Catechismus /

Mode of access: Internet.

Pakavarkītaivacanam /

In Tamil.

Centamiḻ.

Description based on: Tokuti 64, pakuti 1 (Ceptampar 1968); title from cover.

Der römische Katechismus : hrsg. auf Befehl der Kirchenversammlung zu Trient, in Kanzelvorträgen vertheist-auf die Sonntage des Kirchen jahres nach Massgabe und unter Zugrundelegung der Sonntäglischen Evangelien Abshchnitte /

1.-4. [No separate title.]--5. Aus dem Leben der Heiligen.

Historischer Katechismus, oder, Der ganze Katechismus in historisch-wahren Exempeln für Kirche, Schule und Haus /

Includes bibliographical references.

Zend-Avesta, ouvrage de Zoroastre : contenant les Idées Théologiques, Physiques et Morales de ce Législateur, les Cérémonies du Culte Religieux qu'il a établi, et plusicurs traits importans relatifs à l'anncienne Histoire de Perses /

Mode of access: Internet.

Meykaṇṭacivatūṣaṇanikraham : Meykaṇṭacivastavam /

In Tamil.

Der kleinste Katechismus für die Kleinen zur Anregung sittlich religiöser Gefühle. Für Kinder von etwa 5 bis 7 Jahren. Zur Vorbereitung auf jeden andern Katechismus.

Mode of access: Internet.

Jāṉsaṉ Paṇṭitar iyaṟṟiya Rāsilas : eṉum kaṟpitakkataiyiṉ Tamiḻ moli̲peyarppu ;

Added title page: Translation of Rasselas : a tale by Dr. Johnson.

Needinool; or Moral instructions

Text in Tamil.

Naṉṉūṟ kāṇṭikaiyurai /

"Naṉku viḷakkiyum pala viṣayaṇkaḷ cērttum ariya utāraṇaṅkaṭkup poruḷeḻutiyum putupitt[atu]."

Pukaḻentippulavar iyaṟṟiya Pulantaraṉ tūtu.

In Tamil.