Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

The role of oxidation in the protection of sliding metal surfaces

This study is concerned with the mechanisms of growth and wear of protective oxide films formed under various tribological conditions. In the study three different tribological systems are examined in each of which oxidational wear is the dominant equilibrium mode. These are an unlubricated steel on steel system sliding at low and elevated temperatures, a boundary lubricated aluminium bronze on steel system and an unlubricated reciprocating sliding 9% Cr steel system operated at elevated temperature, in an atmosphere of carbon dioxide. The results of mechanical measurements of wear and friction are presented for a range of conditions of load, speed and temper.ature for the systems, together with the results of extensive examinations of the surfaces and sub­ surfaces by various physical methods of analysis. The major part of the thesis, however, is devoted to the development and application of surface models and theoretical quantative expressions in order to explain the observed oxidational wear phenomena. In this work, the mechanisms of formation of load bearing ox ide plateaux are described and are found to be dependent on system geometry and environment. The relative importance of ''in contact" and "out of contact" oxidation is identified together with growth rate constants appropriate to the two situations. Hypotheses are presented to explain the mechanisms of removal of plateaux to form wear debris. The latter hypotheses include the effects of cyclic stressing and dislocation accumulation, together with effects associated with the kinetics of growth and physical properties of the various oxides. The proposed surf ace mode1s have led to the develop­ ment of quantitative expressions for contact temperature, unlubricated wear rates, boundary lubricated wear rates and the wear of rna ter ial during the transition from severe to mild wear. In general theoretical predictions from these expressions are in very good agreement with experimental values.

Analysis of spatial patterns in histological sections of brain tissue

A method is described which enables the spatial pattern of discrete objects in histological sections of brain tissue to be determined. The method can be applied to cell bodies, sections of blood vessels or the characteristic lesions which develop in the brain of patients with neurodegenerative disorders. The density of the histological feature under study is measured in a series of contiguous sample fields arranged in a grid or transect. Data from adjacent sample fields are added together to provide density data for larger field sizes. A plot of the variance/mean ratio (V/M) of the data versus field size reveals whether the objects are distributed randomly, uniformly or in clusters. If the objects are clustered, the analysis determines whether the clusters are randomly or regularly distributed and the mean size of the clusters. In addition, if two different histological features are clustered, the analysis can determine whether their clusters are in phase, out of phase or unrelated to each other. To illustrate the method, the spatial patterns of senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles were studied in histological sections of brain tissue from patients with Alzheimer's disease.

Possibilities and limitations of coded aperture imaging

We have simulated the performance of various apertures used in Coded Aperture Imaging - optically. Coded pictures of extended and continuous-tone planar objects from the Annulus, Twin Annulus, Fresnel Zone Plate and the Uniformly Redundant Array have been decoded using a noncoherent correlation process. We have compared the tomographic capabilities of the Twin Annulus with the Uniformly Redundant Arrays based on quadratic residues and m-sequences. We discuss the ways of reducing the 'd. c.' background of the various apertures used. The non-ideal System-Point-Spread-Function inherent in a noncoherent optical correlation process produces artifacts in the reconstruction. Artifacts are also introduced as a result of unwanted cross-correlation terms from out-of-focus planes. We find that the URN based on m-sequences exhibits good spatial resolution and out-of-focus behaviour when imaging extended objects.

An exploration of female leadership language:case studies of senior women in Bahrain

This is a multiple case study of the leadership language of three senior women working in a large corporation in Bahrain. The study’s main aim is to explore the linguistic practices the women leaders use with their colleagues and subordinates in corporate meetings. Adopting a Foucauldian (1972) notion of ‘discourses’ as social practices and a view of gender as socially constructed and discursively performed (Butler 1990), this research aims to unveil the competing discourses which may shape the leadership language of senior women in their communities of practice. The research is situated within the broader field of Sociolinguistics and the specific field of Language and Gender. To address the research aim, a case study approach incorporating multiple methods of qualitative data collection (observation, interviews, and shadowing) was utilised to gather information about the three women leaders and produce a rich description of their use of language in and out of meeting contexts. For analysis, principles of Qualitative Data Analysis (QDA) were used to organise and sort the large amount of data. Also, Feminist Post- Structuralist Discourse Analysis (FPDA) was adopted to produce a multi-faceted analysis of the subjects, their language leadership, power relations, and competing discourses in the context. It was found that the three senior women enact leadership differently making variable use of a repertoire of conventionally masculine and feminine linguistic practices. However, they all appear to have limited language resources and even more limiting subject positions; and they all have to exercise considerable linguistic expertise to police and modify their language in order to avoid the ‘double bind’. Yet, the extent of this limitation and constraints depends on the community of practice with its prevailing discourses, which appear to have their roots in Islamic and cultural practices as well as some Western influences acquired throughout the company’s history. It is concluded that it may be particularly challenging for Middle Eastern women to achieve any degree of equality with men in the workplace because discourses of Gender difference lie at the core of Islamic teaching and ideology.

Presumptive Identification of the Fungal Communities in Cystic Fibrosis Patients' Sputum Using Amplicon Length Heterogeneity Polymerase Chain Reaction

This thesis would not have been possible without the aid of my family, friends, laboratory members, and professors. First and foremost, I would like to thank Dr. Kalai Mathee for allowing me to enter her lab in August 2007 and enabling to embark on this journey. This experience has transformed me into more mature scientist, teaching me how to ask the right questions and the process needed to solve them. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Lisa Schneper. She has helped me throughout the whole process, by graciously giving me input at every step of the way. I would like to express gratitude to Dr. Jennifer Richards for all her input in writing the thesis. She has been a great teacher and being in her class has been a pleasure. Moreover, I would like to thank all the committee members for their constructive criticism throughout the process. When I entered the lab in August, there was one person who literally was by my side, Melissa Doud. Without your input and guidance I would not have even been able to do these experiments. I would also like to thank you and Dr. Light for allowing me to meet some cystic fibrosis patients. It has allowed me to put a face on the disease, and help the patients' fight. For a period before I had entered the lab, Ms. Doud had an apprentice, who started the fungal aspect of the project, Caroline Veronese. Her initial work has enabled me to prefect the protocols and complete the ITS 1 region.One very unique aspect about Dr. Mathee's lab is the camaraderie. I would like to thank all the lab members for the good times in and out of the lab. These individuals have been able to make smile and laugh in parties and lab meetings. I would like to individually thank Balachandar Dananjeyan, Deepak Balasubramanian, and V arinderpal Singh Pannu for all the PCR help and Natalie Maricic for the laughs and being a great classmate. Last, but not least, I would like to acknowledge my family and friends for their support and keeping me sane: Cecilia, my mother, Mohammad, my father, Amir, my older brother, Billal, my younger brother, Ouday Akkari and Stephanie De Bedout, my best friends.

Sistematic, population genetics, propagation and conservation of Prunus azorica (Rosaceae)

Tese de Doutoramento, Biologia (Ecologia Vegetal), 25 de Junho de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

INTEGRATED THRESHOLD-ACTIVATED FEEDBACK MICROSYSTEM FOR REAL-TIME CHARACTERIZATION, SENSING AND TREATMENT OF BACTERIAL BIOFILMS

Biofilms are the primary cause of clinical bacterial infections and are impervious to typical amounts of antibiotics, necessitating very high doses for treatment. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop new alternate methods of treatment that can complement or replace existing approaches using significantly lower doses of antibiotics. Current standards for studying biofilms are based on end-point studies that are invasive and destroy the biofilm during characterization. This dissertation presents the development of a novel real-time sensing and treatment technology to aid in the non-invasive characterization, monitoring and treatment of bacterial biofilms. The technology is demonstrated through the use of a high-throughput bifurcation based microfluidic reactor that enables simulation of flow conditions similar to indwelling medical devices. The integrated microsystem developed in this work incorporates the advantages of previous in vitro platforms while attempting to overcome some of their limitations. Biofilm formation is extremely sensitive to various growth parameters that cause large variability in biofilms between repeated experiments. In this work we investigate the use of microfluidic bifurcations for the reduction in biofilm growth variance. The microfluidic flow cell designed here spatially sections a single biofilm into multiple channels using microfluidic flow bifurcation. Biofilms grown in the bifurcated device were evaluated and verified for reduced biofilm growth variance using standard techniques like confocal microscopy. This uniformity in biofilm growth allows for reliable comparison and evaluation of new treatments with integrated controls on a single device. Biofilm partitioning was demonstrated using the bifurcation device by exposing three of the four channels to various treatments. We studied a novel bacterial biofilm treatment independent of traditional antibiotics using only small molecule inhibitors of bacterial quorum sensing (analogs) in combination with low electric fields. Studies using the bifurcation-based microfluidic flow cell integrated with real-time transduction methods and macro-scale end-point testing of the combination treatment showed a significant decrease in biomass compared to the untreated controls and well-known treatments such as antibiotics. To understand the possible mechanism of action of electric field-based treatments, fundamental treatment efficacy studies focusing on the effect of the energy of the applied electrical signal were performed. It was shown that the total energy and not the type of the applied electrical signal affects the effectiveness of the treatment. The linear dependence of the treatment efficacy on the applied electrical energy was also demonstrated. The integrated bifurcation-based microfluidic platform is the first microsystem that enables biofilm growth with reduced variance, as well as continuous real-time threshold-activated feedback monitoring and treatment using low electric fields. The sensors detect biofilm growth by monitoring the change in impedance across the interdigitated electrodes. Using the measured impedance change and user inputs provided through a convenient and simple graphical interface, a custom-built MATLAB control module intelligently switches the system into and out of treatment mode. Using this self-governing microsystem, in situ biofilm treatment based on the principles of the bioelectric effect was demonstrated by exposing two of the channels of the integrated bifurcation device to low doses of antibiotics.

The meaning of implied volatility in pricing stock options traded in options markets

Ph.D. in the Faculty of Business Administration

Aedes albopictus in an area of Misiones, Argentina

Until early 1998 the presence of Aedes albopictus had never been detected in Argentina. During April of the same year, few individuals of this species were recorded in 33 breeding sites found in 25 out of 161 inspected houses in the city of Eldorado, Province of Misiones. The homogeneous spatial distribution of the proliferation foci suggests the existence of a generalized infestation in this locality during the study period.

Predicting GDP growth in the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

The choroid plexus is modulated by various peripheral stimuli: implications to diseases of the central nervous system

The blood brain barrier (BBB) and the blood cerebrospinal fluid barrier (BCSFB) form the barriers of the brain. These barriers are essential not only for the protection of the brain, but also in regulating the exchange of cells and molecules in and out of the brain. The choroid plexus (CP) epithelial cells and the arachnoid membrane form the BCSFB. The CP is structurally divided into two independent compartments: one formed by a unique and continuous line of epithelial cells that rest upon a basal lamina; and, a second consisting of a central core formed by connective and highly vascularized tissue populated by diverse cell types (fibroblasts, macrophages and dendritic cells). Here, we review how the CP transcriptome and secretome vary depending on the nature and duration of the stimuli to which the CP is exposed. Specifically, when the peripheral stimulation is acute the CP response is rapid, strong and transient, whereas if the stimulation is sustained in time the CP response persists but it is weaker. Furthermore, not all of the epithelium responds at the same time to peripheral stimulation, suggesting the existence of a synchrony system between individual CP epithelial cells.

Discovering the campus together: a mobile and computer-based learning experience

One of the most relevant difficulties faced by first-year undergraduate students is to settle into the educational environment of universities. This paper presents a case study that proposes a computer-assisted collaborative experience designed to help students in their transition from high school to university. This is done by facilitating their first contact with the campus and its services, the university community, methodologies and activities. The experience combines individual and collaborative activities, conducted in and out of the classroom, structured following the Jigsaw Collaborative Learning Flow Pattern. A specific environment including portable technologies with network and computer applications has been developed to support and facilitate the orchestration of a flow of learning activities into a single integrated learning setting. The result is a Computer-Supported Collaborative Blended Learning scenario, which has been evaluated with first-year university students of the degrees of Software and Audiovisual Engineering within the subject Introduction to Information and Communications Technologies. The findings reveal that the scenario improves significantly students’ interest in their studies and their understanding about the campus and services provided. The environment is also an innovative approach to successfully support the heterogeneous activities conducted by both teachers and students during the scenario. This paper introduces the goals and context of the case study, describes how the technology was employed to conduct the learning scenario, the evaluation methods and the main results of the experience.

Grabbing your ear: rapid auditory-somatosensory multisensory interactions in low-level sensory cortices are not constrained by stimulus alignment.

Multisensory interactions are observed in species from single-cell organisms to humans. Important early work was primarily carried out in the cat superior colliculus and a set of critical parameters for their occurrence were defined. Primary among these were temporal synchrony and spatial alignment of bisensory inputs. Here, we assessed whether spatial alignment was also a critical parameter for the temporally earliest multisensory interactions that are observed in lower-level sensory cortices of the human. While multisensory interactions in humans have been shown behaviorally for spatially disparate stimuli (e.g. the ventriloquist effect), it is not clear if such effects are due to early sensory level integration or later perceptual level processing. In the present study, we used psychophysical and electrophysiological indices to show that auditory-somatosensory interactions in humans occur via the same early sensory mechanism both when stimuli are in and out of spatial register. Subjects more rapidly detected multisensory than unisensory events. At just 50 ms post-stimulus, neural responses to the multisensory 'whole' were greater than the summed responses from the constituent unisensory 'parts'. For all spatial configurations, this effect followed from a modulation of the strength of brain responses, rather than the activation of regions specifically responsive to multisensory pairs. Using the local auto-regressive average source estimation, we localized the initial auditory-somatosensory interactions to auditory association areas contralateral to the side of somatosensory stimulation. Thus, multisensory interactions can occur across wide peripersonal spatial separations remarkably early in sensory processing and in cortical regions traditionally considered unisensory.