Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

PchR-box recognition by the AraC-type regulator PchR of Pseudomonas aeruginosa requires the siderophore pyochelin as an effector.

Under iron limitation, the opportunistic human pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa produces the siderophore pyochelin. When secreted into the extracellular environment, pyochelin complexes ferric ions and delivers them, via the outer membrane receptor FptA, to the bacterial cytoplasm. Extracellular pyochelin also acts as a signalling molecule, inducing the expression of pyochelin biosynthesis and uptake genes by a mechanism involving the AraC-type regulator PchR. We have identified a 32 bp conserved sequence element (PchR-box) in promoter regions of pyochelin-controlled genes and we show that the PchR-box in the pchR-pchDCBA intergenic region is essential for the induction of the pyochelin biosynthetic operon pchDCBA and the repression of the divergently transcribed pchR gene. PchR was purified as a fusion with maltose-binding protein (MBP). Mobility shift assays demonstrated specific binding of MBP-PchR to the PchR-box in the presence, but not in the absence of pyochelin and iron. PchR-box mutations that interfered with pyochelin-dependent regulation in vivo, also affected pyochelin-dependent PchR-box recognition in vitro. We conclude that pyochelin, probably in its iron-loaded state, is the intracellular effector required for PchR-mediated regulation. The fact that extracellular pyochelin triggers this regulation suggests that the siderophore can enter the cytoplasm.

Development of an Expert System for Forecasting Frost on Bridges and Roadways in Iowa, HR-305, 1991

An expert system has been developed that provides 24 hour forecasts of roadway and bridge frost for locations in Iowa. The system is based on analysis of frost observations taken by highway maintenance personnel, analysis of conditions leading to frost as obtained from meteorologists with experience in forecasting bridge and roadway frost, and from fundamental physical principles of frost processes. The expert system requires the forecaster to enter information on recent maximum and minimum temperatures and forecasts of maximum and minimum air temperatures, dew point temperatures, precipitation, cloudiness, and wind speed. The system has been used operationally for the last two frost seasons by Freese-Notis Associates, who have been under contract with the Iowa DOT to supply frost forecasts. The operational meteorologists give the system their strong endorsement. They always consult the system before making a frost forecast unless conditions clearly indicate frost is not likely. In operational use, the system is run several times with different input values to test the sensitivity of frost formation on a particular day to various meteorological parameters. The users comment. that the system helps them to consider all the factors relevant to frost formation and is regarded as an office companion for making frost forecasts.

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Development of Self-Cleaning Box Culvert Design – Phase II, TR-619, 2013

Culverts are common means to convey flow through the roadway system for small streams. In general, larger flows and road embankment heights entail the use of multibarrel culverts (a.k.a. multi-box) culverts. Box culverts are generally designed to handle events with a 50-year return period, and therefore convey considerably lower flows much of the time. While there are no issues with conveying high flows, many multi-box culverts in Iowa pose a significant problem related to sedimentation. The highly erosive Iowa soils can easily lead to the situation that some of the barrels can silt-in early after their construction, becoming partially filled with sediment in few years. Silting can reduce considerably the capacity of the culvert to handle larger flow events. Phase I of this Iowa Highway Research Board project (TR-545) led to an innovative solution for preventing sedimentation. The solution was comprehensively investigated through laboratory experiments and numerical modeling aimed at screening design alternatives and testing their hydraulic and sediment conveyance performance. Following this study phase, the Technical Advisory Committee suggested to implement the recommended sediment mitigation design to a field site. The site selected for implementation was a 3-box culvert crossing Willow Creek on IA Hwy 1W in Iowa City. The culvert was constructed in 1981 and the first cleanup was needed in 2000. Phase II of the TR 545 entailed the monitoring of the site with and without the selfcleaning sedimentation structure in place (similarly with the study conducted in laboratory). The first monitoring stage (Sept 2010 to December 2012) was aimed at providing a baseline for the operation of the as-designed culvert. In order to support Phase II research, a cleanup of the IA Hwy 1W culvert was conducted in September 2011. Subsequently, a monitoring program was initiated to document the sedimentation produced by individual and multiple storms propagating through the culvert. The first two years of monitoring showed inception of the sedimentation in the first spring following the cleanup. Sedimentation continued to increase throughout the monitoring program following the depositional patterns observed in the laboratory tests and those documented in the pre-cleaning surveys. The second part of Phase II of the study was aimed at monitoring the constructed self-cleaning structure. Since its construction in December 2012, the culvert site was continuously monitored through systematic observations. The evidence garnered in this phase of the study demonstrates the good performance of the self-cleaning structure in mitigating the sediment deposition at culverts. Besides their beneficial role in sediment mitigation, the designed self-cleaning structures maintain a clean and clear area upstream the culvert, keep a healthy flow through the central barrel offering hydraulic and aquatic habitat similar with that in the undisturbed stream reaches upstream and downstream the culvert. It can be concluded that the proposed self-cleaning structural solution “streamlines” the area upstream the culvert in a way that secures the safety of the culvert structure at high flows while producing much less disturbance in the stream behavior compared with the current constructive approaches.

Pilot Project for a Hybrid Road-Flooding Forecasting System on Squaw Creek, TR-642

A network of 25 sonic stage sensors were deployed in the Squaw Creek basin upstream from Ames Iowa to determine if the state-of-the-art distributed hydrological model CUENCAS can produce reliable information for all road crossings including those that cross small creeks draining basins as small as 1 sq. mile. A hydraulic model was implemented for the major tributaries of the Squaw Creek where IFC sonic instruments were deployed and it was coupled to CUENCAS to validate the predictions made at small tributaries in the basin. This study demonstrates that the predictions made by the hydrological model at internal locations in the basins are as accurate as the predictions made at the outlet of the basin. Final rating curves based on surveyed cross sections were developed for the 22 IFC-bridge sites that are currently operating, and routine forecast is provided at those locations (see IFIS). Rating curves were developed for 60 additional bridge locations in the basin, however, we do not use those rating curves for routine forecast because the lack of accuracy of LiDAR derived cross sections is not optimal. The results of our work form the basis for two papers that have been submitted for publication to the Journal of Hydrological Engineering. Peer review of our work will gives a strong footing to our ability to expand our results from the pilot Squaw Creek basin to all basins in Iowa.

High expression of the HMG box factor sox-13 in arterial walls during embryonic development.

Members of the Sox gene family of transcription factors are defined by the presence of an 80 amino acid homology domain, the High Mobility Group (HMG) box. Here we report the cloning and initial analysis of murine Sox-13 . The 984 amino acids Sox-13 protein contains a single HMG box, a leucine zipper motif and a glutamine-rich stretch. These characteristics are shared with another member of the Sox gene family, Sox-6. High level embryonic expression of Sox-13 occurs uniquely in the arterial walls of 13.5 days post coitum (dpc) mice and later. Low level expression was observed in the inner ear of 13.5 dpc mice and in a limited number of cells in the thymus of 16.5 dpc mice, from which Sox-13 was originally cloned. At 18.5 dpc, Sox-13 is expressed in the tracheal epithelium below the vocal cord and in the hair follicles. The Sox-13 protein binds to the consensus HMG box motif, AACAAAG, but does not transactivate transcription through a concatamer of this motif. Sox-13, like other members of the Sox family likely plays an important role in development.

Cathodic Protection for a Continuous Box Girder Bridge Deck, HR-553, 1993

Bridge deck deterioration due to corrosive effect of deicers on reinforcing steel is a major problem facing many agencies. Cathodic protection is one method used to prevent reinforcing steel corrosion. The application of a direct current to the embedded reinforcing steel and a sacrificial anode protects the steel from corrosion. This 1992 project involved placing an Elgard Titanium Anode Mesh Cathodic Protection System on a bridge deck. The anode was fastened to the deck after the Class A repair-work and the overlay was placed using the Iowa Low Slump Dense Concrete System. The system was set up initially at 1 mA/sq ft.

Development of Self-Cleaning Box Culvert Designs, TR-545, 2009

The main function of a roadway culvert is to effectively convey drainage flow during normal and extreme hydrologic conditions. This function is often impaired due to the sedimentation blockage of the culvert. This research sought to understand the mechanics of sedimentation process at multi-box culverts, and develop self-cleaning systems that flush out sediment deposits using the power of drainage flows. The research entailed field observations, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations. The specific role of each of these investigative tools is summarized below: a) The field observations were aimed at understanding typical sedimentation patterns and their dependence on culvert geometry and hydrodynamic conditions during normal and extreme hydrologic events. b) The laboratory experiments were used for modeling sedimentation process observed insitu and for testing alternative self-cleaning concepts applied to culverts. The major tasks for the initial laboratory model study were to accurately replicate the culvert performance curves and the dynamics of sedimentation process, and to provide benchmark data for numerical simulation validation. c) The numerical simulations enhanced the understanding of the sedimentation processes and aided in testing flow cases complementary to those conducted in the model reducing the number of (more expensive) tests to be conducted in the laboratory. Using the findings acquired from the laboratory and simulation works, self-cleaning culvert concepts were developed and tested for a range of flow conditions. The screening of the alternative concepts was made through experimental studies in a 1:20 scale model guided by numerical simulations. To ensure the designs are effective, performance studies were finally conducted in a 1:20 hydraulic model using the most promising design alternatives to make sure that the proposed systems operate satisfactory under closer to natural scale conditions.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Computer Analysis of Twin Box Culverts, 1959

The paper presents a method of analyzing Rigid Frames by use of the Conjugate Beam Theory. The development of the method along with an example is given. This method has been used to write a computer program for the analysis of twin box culverts. The culverts may be analyzed under any fill height and any of the standard truck loadings. The wall and slab thickness are increased by the computer program as necessary. The final result is steel requirements both for moment and shear, and the slab and wall thickness.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.