Financial liberalization and stock market volatility:the case of Indonesia

This article examines the relationship between financial liberalization and stock market volatility in Indonesia. By looking at the time series properties of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) we identify breaks in stock market volatility which coincide with the timing of major policy events. Our main findings are (i) a significant decrease in volatility after the 'official' opening of the stock market to foreign participation; (ii) a significant increase in volatility in the year before market opening following reforms that eased entry requirements and the issuance of brokerage licenses and (iii) a significant increase in volatility at the time of the Asian crisis followed by a significant decrease in the second and sixth years after the crisis.

The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével (Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates)

Írásunkban azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a hosszú lejáratú határidős árfolyamok stacionaritását feltételező hibakorrekciós modellek, amelyeknek korábbi számítások szerint - a világ devizapiaci forgalmának mintegy 75 százalékát kitevő fejlett ipari országokra alkalmazva - kitűnő a mintán kívüli előrejelző erejük, hogyan képesek három keletközép- európai ország devizaárfolyamát előrejelezni. A három vizsgálat alá vont deviza (cseh, magyar, lengyel) esetében az eredmények relációnként nagyon eltérnek, és összességében kedvezőtlenebbek, mint a fejlett ipari országokra kapott eredmények, amit a nem teljesen rugalmas árfolyamrezsim, a rendelkezésre álló adatsor rövidsége, az eurózóna-csatlakozáshoz kapcsolódó bizonytalanságok, a devizakockázati és a határidős kamatprémium létezése, továbbá a Balassa-Samuelson-hatás együttes befolyásaként tudunk értelmezni. JEL kód: E43, F31, F47. /===/ This paper studies whether models that assume long-maturity forward exchange rates are stationary (which proved in earlier studies to provide superior forecasting ability when applied to exchange rates of major currencies) are capable of forecasting the Euro exchange rates of three Central-East European currencies (the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty). The results for the three currencies differ from each other and are generally much worse than those obtained earlier for major currencies. These unfavourable results are attributed to the consequences of managed exchange-rate systems, to the short time series available, to uncertainties related to future Euro-zone entry, to the existence of a foreign exchange and term premium, and to the Balassa–Samuelson effect.

The Reverse Balassa–Samuelson Effect in the Euro Zone

The debt crisis of the eurozone revealed a structural problem of the single market. The single currency created a pegged foreign exchange system among the euro member states. Thus, the less competitive countries can not improve their wage competitiveness through devaluation, but are motivated to extend the current consumption as the single central bank rate and the zone stability created cheap debt financing. The paper overviews the process of Reverse Balassa-Samuelson effect to explain the importance of external imbalance in the debt crisis.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Ícones urbanos na cidade de Natal: arquitetura e desenvolvimento urbano na cidade do sol e mar

Natal has come through major changes in the last 150 years, since the actions of city beautification, in the 19th century, until the present day, when such transformations start to have the objective of including the city in the competition for the attraction of the capital flows and consumption, domestically and in a foreign sense. It is thought that the first initiatives aimed at increasing tourism in Natal occurred in the 1960s, however, it became apparent that only from the 1980s was there a significant increase in tourist activities in Natal and the Metropolitan Region, especially on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, leading to an expansion of the labour market, the significant increase of foreign investment, territorial changes of great impact and the production of buildings primarily intended for the hotel industry and second residence for European tourists. Since then, the incentives for tourist activity in the state have been maintained and even increased, based on tourism aimed at natural beauties, local cuisine and events, which transformed the tourist activity in one of the main sources of foreign exchange for the city of Natal. In the early 21st century, the construction of high-rise condominiums, monuments (including the designer ones), such as the Parque da Cidade, designed by Oscar Niemeyer, were already established. Also, shopping centers and, in order to host the World Cup, the new football stadium, the Arena das Dunas, among others, which were aimed at local and foreign consumers, especially European, stood out in the city. It is understood that these new buildings, monuments and also renovations and restorations that were deployed in the city of Natal aimed at constructing a new identity for the city, within the process of capitalist development and urban spectacle. It is considered that the monuments and the iconic buildings are attributes of the cities aimed at selling locations as goods, establishing a new urban environment, a new role as cities, which aimed at seeking greater autonomy from the nation-state. In this research, it was sought to analyze the architectural object, that is, buildings and monuments built or restored in Natal and its relevance to the city marketing promoted by the city itself. It was found that, indeed, such buildings and monuments are inserted in contemporary architectural production as a basis for increasing the competitive nature of Natal. In addition, they reveal a capitalist mode of production, supported by public resources, operating in the production of urban space with a view to repeating the hegemonic model of a competitive city

A dinâmica da taxa de câmbio no Brasil face às operações swap (2002-2015)

This dissertation investigates, based on the Post-Keynesian theory and on its concept of monetary economy of production, the exchange rate behavior of the Brazilian Real in the presence of Brazilian Central Bank's interventions by means of the so-called swap transactions over 2002-2015. Initially, the work analyzes the essential properties of an open monetary economy of production and, thereafter, it presents the basic propositions of the Post-Keynesian view on the exchange rate determination, highlighting the properties of foreign exchange markets and the peculiarities of the Brazilian position into the international monetary and financial system. The research, thereby, accounts for the various segments of the Brazilian foreign exchange market. To accomplish its purpose, we first do a literature review of the Post-Keynesian literature about the topic. Then, we undertake empirical exams of the exchange rate determination using two statistical methods. On the one hand, to measure the volatility of exchange rate, we estimate Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) and Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. On the other hand, to measure the variance of the exchange rate in relation to real, financial variables, and the swaps, we estimate a Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model. Both experiments are performed for the nominal and real effective exchange rates. The results show that the swaps respond to exchange rate movements, trying to offset its volatility. This reveals that the exchange rate is, at least in a certain magnitude, sensitive to swaps transactions conducted by the Central Bank. In addition, another empirical result is that the real effective exchange rate responds more to the swaps auctions than the nominal rate.

Some biological and ecological considerations for research in the management of the fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga

There is little doubt that the exploitation of the current fisheries of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga requires close monitoring with a view to enforce adherence to prudent management practices. Many indigenous fishes have gradually disappeared from the commercial fishery of both lakes. In the Uganda portion of Lake Victoria for instance Okaronon and Wadanya (in press) have shown that:- 1. The once preponderant haplochromiine taxon ceased to feature in the commercial catches in 1979. 2. The lung-fish (Protopterus aethiopicus) which formerly contributed significantly to the commercial landings had declined to minor species status by the mid 1980s. 3. The catfishes Clarias mossambicus and Bagrus docmac, formerly major fish species, contributed insignificant quantities to the commercial fishery since the early and mid 1980s, respectively. Similar trend have been "reported in the Kenya and Tanzania portions of Lake Victoria (Bwathondi, 1985; Mainga, 1985, Witte and Goudswaard, 1985). On the other hand since their establishment all round the lake in the early to mid 1980s some introduced fishes namely Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) built up impressive stocks in Lake Victoria (Ssentongo and Welcomme, 1985, Okaronon et al. 1985; Okaronon and Wadanya, in press). Togetther with the native pelagic cyprinid Rastrineobola argentea or Dagaa/Mukene the introduced fishes have contributed unprecidented catches, stimulating vibrant commercial fisheries which have yielded significant social economic benefits to the peoples of the three states riparian to the Lake (Reynolds and Greboval, 1988; Kudhongania et al in press). The impressive landings particularly of the Nile perch and Nile tilapia have also led to rapid industrialisation of fish processing in East Africa mainly for the export market. Fish export has now the potential of a major foreign exchange enterprise in the region.

Produção de pellets de madeira no Brasil : estratégia, custo e risco do investimento

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Florestais, 2015.

¿FRACASÓ LA POLÍTICA DE LAS “METAS DE INFLACIÓN” Y LAS BANDAS CAMBIARIAS?

Resumen El viernes 13 de octubre del 2006, el Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) emitió un comunicado de prensa anunciando que modificaría, a partir del 17 de ese mes, el esquema cambiario de minidevaluaciones por otro denominado bandas cambiaras. En el nuevo esquema, el tipo de cambio podría ser fijado por el “mercado” siempre que fluctuara dentro de bandas predeterminadas. Este artículo analiza la evolución del tipo de cambio desde que se estableció el nuevo esquema, profundizando desde setiembre de 2009, cuando el BCCR dejó de intervenir el mercado cambiario y con ello aumentó la inestabilidad y volatilidad del tipo de cambio. Se pone en duda si el BCCR debe preocuparse solo por lograr una baja inflación y olvidarse del crecimiento económico, al igual que si el mercado cambiario opera en un mercado de competencia. Abstract On Friday October 13, 2006, the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) released a press communication announcing that the exchange regime would change, from the crawling-peg exchange regime to other called exchange rate band, effective on the 17th of that month. In the new scheme, the exchange rate may be established by the "market", when the fluctuation happened within predetermined bands. This article analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate from the establishment of the new scheme, deepening on the month of September 2009 when the BCCR stopped intervening the foreign exchange rate and therefore increased the instability and volatility of the exchange rate. It questions not only if the BCCR needs to worry only on achieving low inflation and forget about the economic growth, but also if the foreign exchange market operates in a competitive market.

Do the myths still exist? Revisiting people’s negative beliefs about organ donation upon death

The prevalence of myths preventing people partial to donation in Australia from consenting is unknown. Respondents (N = 468: 381 donors, 26 non-donors, 61 undecided) were surveyed about their (negative) donation beliefs. Approximately 30% of donors were neutral or supported negative beliefs about organ allocation, especially donation to undesirable organ recipients and a black market organ trade. Confusion about brain death, lack of family and religious support, and discomfort with donation were negative beliefs endorsed by some respondents irrespective of donor preference. Proportionally, donors had greater trust in hospitals/doctors than other groups. Some myths still exist but may vary with donation preference.

The impacts of FOREX fluctuations on construction business performance : an organisational capabilities perspective

Construction projects are a high risk business activity. When undertaking projects in an international context, it is further complicated by the risk of fluctuations in the foreign exchange rates (FOREX). Construction business performance is affected by these fluctuations. They affect progress and cause delays, which in turn create problems for subcontractors, namely cost overruns, disputes, arbitration, total abandonment and litigation. FOREX fluctuations also cause the price of raw materials to increase, leading the cost overruns. Managing FOREX risk is critical and past research have focused on the need for adequate insurance, careful planning and management, and foreign exchange futures hedging to overcome issues that have been caused by the FOREX risk. Analysis of FOREX risk in international construction business usually focused only on issues at the project level. There is currently lack of understanding of Organisational Capabilities (OC) to manage the impacts of FOREX risk, which when examined, are seen in isolation. This paper attempts to bridge the gap by discussing the impacts of FOREX fluctuations on the international construction business. The focus is on the OC perspective and the need to develop OC framework to mitigate the risk in sustaining construction business performance.