Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

Land cover change and environmental quality assessment using GIS techniques: a case study in Brazilian Southeastern region for the period 1988-2003

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Structural changes and dynamic behaviour of vanadium oxide-based catalysts for gas-phase selective oxidations

Selective oxidation is one of the simplest functionalization methods and essentially all monomers used in manufacturing artificial fibers and plastics are obtained by catalytic oxidation processes. Formally, oxidation is considered as an increase in the oxidation number of the carbon atoms, then reactions such as dehydrogenation, ammoxidation, cyclization or chlorination are all oxidation reactions. In this field, most of processes for the synthesis of important chemicals used vanadium oxide-based catalysts. These catalytic systems are used either in the form of multicomponent mixed oxides and oxysalts, e.g., in the oxidation of n-butane (V/P/O) and of benzene (supported V/Mo/O) to maleic anhydride, or in the form of supported metal oxide, e.g., in the manufacture of phthalic anhydride by o-xylene oxidation, of sulphuric acid by oxidation of SO2, in the reduction of NOx with ammonia and in the ammoxidation of alkyl aromatics. In addition, supported vanadia catalysts have also been investigated for the oxidative dehydrogenation of alkanes to olefins , oxidation of pentane to maleic anhydride and the selective oxidation of methanol to formaldehyde or methyl formate [1]. During my PhD I focused my work on two gas phase selective oxidation reactions. The work was done at the Department of Industrial Chemistry and Materials (University of Bologna) in collaboration with Polynt SpA. Polynt is a leader company in the development, production and marketing of catalysts for gas-phase oxidation. In particular, I studied the catalytic system for n-butane oxidation to maleic anhydride (fluid bed technology) and for o-xylene oxidation to phthalic anhydride. Both reactions are catalyzed by systems based on vanadium, but catalysts are completely different. Part A is dedicated to the study of V/P/O catalyst for n-butane selective oxidation, while in the Part B the results of an investigation on TiO2-supported V2O5, catalyst for o-xylene oxidation are showed. In Part A, a general introduction about the importance of maleic anhydride, its uses, the industrial processes and the catalytic system are reported. The reaction is the only industrial direct oxidation of paraffins to a chemical intermediate. It is produced by n-butane oxidation either using fixed bed and fluid bed technology; in both cases the catalyst is the vanadyl pyrophosphate (VPP). Notwithstanding the good performances, the yield value didn’t exceed 60% and the system is continuously studied to improve activity and selectivity. The main open problem is the understanding of the real active phase working under reaction conditions. Several articles deal with the role of different crystalline and/or amorphous vanadium/phosphorous (VPO) compounds. In all cases, bulk VPP is assumed to constitute the core of the active phase, while two different hypotheses have been formulated concerning the catalytic surface. In one case the development of surface amorphous layers that play a direct role in the reaction is described, in the second case specific planes of crystalline VPP are assumed to contribute to the reaction pattern, and the redox process occurs reversibly between VPP and VOPO4. Both hypotheses are supported also by in-situ characterization techniques, but the experiments were performed with different catalysts and probably under slightly different working conditions. Due to complexity of the system, these differences could be the cause of the contradictions present in literature. Supposing that a key role could be played by P/V ratio, I prepared, characterized and tested two samples with different P/V ratio. Transformation occurring on catalytic surfaces under different conditions of temperature and gas-phase composition were studied by means of in-situ Raman spectroscopy, trying to investigate the changes that VPP undergoes during reaction. The goal is to understand which kind of compound constituting the catalyst surface is the most active and selective for butane oxidation reaction, and also which features the catalyst should possess to ensure the development of this surface (e.g. catalyst composition). On the basis of results from this study, it could be possible to project a new catalyst more active and selective with respect to the present ones. In fact, the second topic investigated is the possibility to reproduce the surface active layer of VPP onto a support. In general, supportation is a way to improve mechanical features of the catalysts and to overcome problems such as possible development of local hot spot temperatures, which could cause a decrease of selectivity at high conversion, and high costs of catalyst. In literature it is possible to find different works dealing with the development of supported catalysts, but in general intrinsic characteristics of VPP are worsened due to the chemical interaction between active phase and support. Moreover all these works deal with the supportation of VPP; on the contrary, my work is an attempt to build-up a V/P/O active layer on the surface of a zirconia support by thermal treatment of a precursor obtained by impregnation of a V5+ salt and of H3PO4. In-situ Raman analysis during the thermal treatment, as well as reactivity tests are used to investigate the parameters that may influence the generation of the active phase. Part B is devoted to the study of o-xylene oxidation of phthalic anhydride; industrially, the reaction is carried out in gas-phase using as catalysts a supported system formed by V2O5 on TiO2. The V/Ti/O system is quite complex; different vanadium species could be present on the titania surface, as a function of the vanadium content and of the titania surface area: (i) V species which is chemically bound to the support via oxo bridges (isolated V in octahedral or tetrahedral coordination, depending on the hydration degree), (ii) a polymeric species spread over titania, and (iii) bulk vanadium oxide, either amorphous or crystalline. The different species could have different catalytic properties therefore changing the relative amount of V species can be a way to optimize the catalytic performances of the system. For this reason, samples containing increasing amount of vanadium were prepared and tested in the oxidation of o-xylene, with the aim of find a correlations between V/Ti/O catalytic activity and the amount of the different vanadium species. The second part deals with the role of a gas-phase promoter. Catalytic surface can change under working conditions; the high temperatures and a different gas-phase composition could have an effect also on the formation of different V species. Furthermore, in the industrial practice, the vanadium oxide-based catalysts need the addition of gas-phase promoters in the feed stream, that although do not have a direct role in the reaction stoichiometry, when present leads to considerable improvement of catalytic performance. Starting point of my investigation is the possibility that steam, a component always present in oxidation reactions environment, could cause changes in the nature of catalytic surface under reaction conditions. For this reason, the dynamic phenomena occurring at the surface of a 7wt% V2O5 on TiO2 catalyst in the presence of steam is investigated by means of Raman spectroscopy. Moreover a correlation between the amount of the different vanadium species and catalytic performances have been searched. Finally, the role of dopants has been studied. The industrial V/Ti/O system contains several dopants; the nature and the relative amount of promoters may vary depending on catalyst supplier and on the technology employed for the process, either a single-bed or a multi-layer catalytic fixed-bed. Promoters have a quite remarkable effect on both activity and selectivity to phthalic anhydride. Their role is crucial, and the proper control of the relative amount of each component is fundamental for the process performance. Furthermore, it can not be excluded that the same promoter may play different role depending on reaction conditions (T, composition of gas phase..). The reaction network of phthalic anhydride formation is very complex and includes several parallel and consecutive reactions; for this reason a proper understanding of the role of each dopant cannot be separated from the analysis of the reaction scheme. One of the most important promoters at industrial level, which is always present in the catalytic formulations is Cs. It is known that Cs plays an important role on selectivity to phthalic anhydride, but the reasons of this phenomenon are not really clear. Therefore the effect of Cs on the reaction scheme has been investigated at two different temperature with the aim of evidencing in which step of the reaction network this promoter plays its role.

Who stays, who benefits? Predicting dropout and change in cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis

This study investigates predictors of outcome in a secondary analysis of dropout and completer data from a randomized controlled effectiveness trial comparing CBTp to a wait-list group (Lincoln et al., 2012). Eighty patients with DSM-IV psychotic disorders seeking outpatient treatment were included. Predictors were assessed at baseline. Symptom outcome was assessed at post-treatment and at one-year follow-up. The predictor x group interactions indicate that a longer duration of disorder predicted less improvement in negative symptoms in the CBTp but not in the wait-list group whereas jumping-to-conclusions was associated with poorer outcome only in the wait-list group. There were no CBTp specific predictors of improvement in positive symptoms. However, in the combined sample (immediate CBTp+the delayed CBTp group) baseline variables predicted significant amounts of positive and negative symptom variance at post-therapy and one-year follow-up after controlling for pre-treatment symptoms. Lack of insight and low social functioning were the main predictors of drop-out, contributing to a prediction accuracy of 87%. The findings indicate that higher baseline symptom severity, poorer functioning, neurocognitive deficits, reasoning biases and comorbidity pose no barrier to improvement during CBTp. However, in line with previous predictor-research, the findings imply that patients need to receive treatment earlier.

Farmers behaviour on mitigation and adaptation to climate change: A case study in Kenya.

Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As increases in temperature will lead to increases in evapotranspiration, a potential increase in rainfall in Kenya may not offset the expected increases in agricultural water needs (Herrero et al. 2010). In order to respond to these present and future challenges, potential mitigation and adaptation options have been developed. However, implementation is not evident. In addition to their benefits in either mitigating or reducing the vulnerability of climate change effects, many of these options do not have economic costs and even provide economic benefits (e.g. savings in the consumption of energy or natural resources). Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that even when there are no biophysical, technological or economic constraints and despite their potential benefits from either the economic or environmental climate change point of view, not all farmers are willing to adopt these measures. This reflects the key role that behavioural barriers can play in the uptake of mitigation and adaptation measures.

Development techniques and organizational climate : an evaluation of the comparative importance of two potential forces for organizational change : technical report /

"Funded by the Office of Naval Research, Organizational Effectiveness Research Programs, under Contract no. N00014-67-A-0181-0013, NR 170-719/7-29-68 (Code 452)"

Development techniques and organizatinal change : an overview of results from the Michigan inter-company longitudinal study : technical report /

"Funded by the Office of Naval Research, Group Psychology Programs, under Contract no. N00014-67-A-0181-0013, NR 170-719/7-29-68 (Code 452)"

Cognitive change process during group cognitive behaviour therapy for depression

Background: This study extended that of Kwon and Oei [Kwon, S.M., Oei, T.P.S., 2003. Cognitive change processes in a group cognitive behavior therapy of depression. J. Behav. Ther. Exp. Psychiatry, 3, 73-85], which outlined a number of testable models based on Beck's cognitive theory of depression. Specifically, the current study tested the following four competing models: the causal, consequential, fully and partially interactive cognitive models in patients with major depressive disorder. Methods: A total of 168 clinically depressed outpatients were recruited into a 12-week group cognitive behaviour therapy program. Data was collected at three time points: baseline, mid- and at termination of therapy using the ATQ DAS and BD1. The data were analysed with Amos 4.01 (Arbuckle, J.L., 1999. Amos 4.1. Smallwaters, Chicago.) structural equation modelling. Results: Results indicated that dysfunctional attitudes, negative automatic thoughts and symptoms of depression reduced significantly during treatment. Both the causal and consequential models equally provided an adequate fit to the data. The fully interactive model provided the best fit. However, after removing non-significant pathways, it was found that reduced depressive symptom contributed to reduced depressogenic automatic thoughts and dysfunctional attitudes, not the reverse. Conclusion: These findings did not fully support Beck's cognitive theory of depression that cognitions are primary in the reduction of depressed mood. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semi-global techniques in image matching and change detection with applications to civil and environmental engineering.

This work of thesis wants to present a dissertation of the wide range of modern dense matching algorithms, which are spreading in different application and research fields, with a particular attention to the innovative “Semi-Global” matching techniques. The choice of develop a semi-global numerical code was justified by the need of getting insight on the variables and strategies that affect the algorithm performances with the primary objective of maximizing the method accuracy and efficiency, and the results level of completeness. The dissertation will consist in the metrological characterization of the proprietary implementation of the semi-global matching algorithm, evaluating the influence of several matching variables and functions implemented in the process and comparing the accuracy and completeness of different results (digital surface models, disparity maps and 2D displacement fields) obtained using our code and other commercial and open-source matching programs in a wide variety of application fields.

Macro-level change and micro-level effects:a twenty year perspective on changing grocery shopping behaviour in Britain

In this paper we summarise key elements of retail change in Britain over a twenty-year period. The time period is that covered by a funded study into long-term change in grocery shopping habits in Portsmouth, England. The major empirical findings—to which we briefly allude—are reported elsewhere: the present task is to assess the wider context underlying that change. For example, it has frequently been stated that retailing in the UK is not as competitive as in other leading economies. As a result, the issue of consumer choice has become increasingly important politically. Concerns over concentration in the industry, new format development and market definition have been expressed by local planners, competition regulators and consumer groups. Macro level changes over time have also created market inequality in consumer opportunities at a local level—hence our decision to attempt a local-level study. Situational factors affecting consumer experiences over time at the local level involve the changing store choice sets available to particular consumers. Using actual consumer experiences thus becomes a yardstick for assessing the practical effectiveness of policy making. The paper demonstrates that choice at local level is driven by store use and that different levels of provision reflect real choice at the local level. Macro-level policy and ‘one size fits all’ approaches to regulation, it is argued, do not reflect the changing reality of grocery shopping. Accordingly, arguments for a more local and regional approach to regulation are made.