Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Inference of chromosomal inversion dynamics from Pool-Seq data in natural and laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

Sequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) represents a reliable and cost-effective approach for estimating genome-wide SNP and transposable element insertion frequencies. However, Pool-Seq does not provide direct information on haplotypes so that, for example, obtaining inversion frequencies has not been possible until now. Here, we have developed a new set of diagnostic marker SNPs for seven cosmopolitan inversions in Drosophila melanogaster that can be used to infer inversion frequencies from Pool-Seq data. We applied our novel marker set to Pool-Seq data from an experimental evolution study and from North American and Australian latitudinal clines. In the experimental evolution data, we find evidence that positive selection has driven the frequencies of In(3R)C and In(3R)Mo to increase over time. In the clinal data, we confirm the existence of frequency clines for In(2L)t, In(3L)P and In(3R)Payne in both North America and Australia and detect a previously unknown latitudinal cline for In(3R)Mo in North America. The inversion markers developed here provide a versatile and robust tool for characterizing inversion frequencies and their dynamics in Pool-Seq data from diverse D. melanogaster populations.

Analysis of an iterative deconvolution approach for estimating the source wavelet during waveform inversion of crosshole ground-penetrating radar data

A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole georadar data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a time-domain waveform inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity in both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little-to-no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.

Performance of a new gadolinium-based intravascular contrast agent in free-breathing inversion-recovery 3D coronary MRA.

In three-dimensional (3D) coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), the in-flow contrast between the coronary blood and the surrounding myocardium is attenuated as compared to thin-slab two-dimensional (2D) techniques. The application of a gadolinium (Gd)-based intravascular contrast agent may provide an additional source of signal and contrast by reducing T(1blood) and supporting the visualization of more distal or branching segments of the coronary arterial tree. In six healthy adults, the left coronary artery (LCA) system was imaged pre- and postcontrast with a 0.075-mmol/kg bodyweight dose of the intravascular contrast agent B-22956. For imaging, an optimized free-breathing, navigator-gated and -corrected 3D inversion recovery (IR) sequence was used. For comparison, state-of-the-art baseline 3D coronary MRA with T(2) preparation for non-exogenous contrast enhancement was acquired. The combination of IR 3D coronary MRA, sophisticated navigator technology, and B-22956 allowed for an extensive visualization of the LCA system. Postcontrast, a significant increase in both the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR; 46%, P < 0.05) and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR; 160%, P < 0.01) was observed, while vessel sharpness of the left anterior descending (LAD) artery and the left coronary circumflex (LCX) were improved by 20% (P < 0.05) and 18% (P < 0.05), respectively.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Constraints on the permeability structure of alluvial aquifers from the poro-elastic inversion of multi-frequency P-wave velocity logs

We have explored the possibility of obtaining first-order permeability estimates for saturated alluvial sediments based on the poro-elastic interpretation of the P-wave velocity dispersion inferred from sonic logs. Modern sonic logging tools designed for environmental and engineering applications allow one for P-wave velocity measurements at multiple emitter frequencies over a bandwidth covering 5 to 10 octaves. Methodological considerations indicate that, for saturated unconsolidated sediments in the silt to sand range and typical emitter frequencies ranging from approximately 1 to 30 kHz, the observable velocity dispersion should be sufficiently pronounced to allow one for reliable first-order estimations of the permeability structure. The corresponding predictions have been tested on and verified for a borehole penetrating a typical surficial alluvial aquifer. In addition to multifrequency sonic logs, a comprehensive suite of nuclear and electrical logs, an S-wave log, a litholog, and a limited number laboratory measurements of the permeability from retrieved core material were also available. This complementary information was found to be essential for parameterizing the poro-elastic inversion procedure and for assessing the uncertainty and internal consistency of corresponding permeability estimates. Our results indicate that the thus obtained permeability estimates are largely consistent with those expected based on the corresponding granulometric characteristics, as well as with the available evidence form laboratory measurements. These findings are also consistent with evidence from ocean acoustics, which indicate that, over a frequency range of several orders-of-magnitude, the classical theory of poro-elasticity is generally capable of explaining the observed P-wave velocity dispersion in medium- to fine-grained seabed sediments

MBIS: multivariate Bayesian image segmentation tool.

We present MBIS (Multivariate Bayesian Image Segmentation tool), a clustering tool based on the mixture of multivariate normal distributions model. MBIS supports multichannel bias field correction based on a B-spline model. A second methodological novelty is the inclusion of graph-cuts optimization for the stationary anisotropic hidden Markov random field model. Along with MBIS, we release an evaluation framework that contains three different experiments on multi-site data. We first validate the accuracy of segmentation and the estimated bias field for each channel. MBIS outperforms a widely used segmentation tool in a cross-comparison evaluation. The second experiment demonstrates the robustness of results on atlas-free segmentation of two image sets from scan-rescan protocols on 21 healthy subjects. Multivariate segmentation is more replicable than the monospectral counterpart on T1-weighted images. Finally, we provide a third experiment to illustrate how MBIS can be used in a large-scale study of tissue volume change with increasing age in 584 healthy subjects. This last result is meaningful as multivariate segmentation performs robustly without the need for prior knowledge.

Source-wavelet estimation during full-waveform inversion of ground-penetrating radar data

A major issue in the application of waveform inversion methods to crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of incorporating this step into a recently published time-domain inversion procedure through an iterative deconvolution approach. Our results indicate that, at least in non-dispersive electrical environments, such an approach provides remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet even in the presence of strong heterogeneity of both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity. Our results also indicate that the proposed source wavelet estimation approach is relatively insensitive to ambient noise and to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet. Finally, there appears to be little to no trade-off between the wavelet estimation and the tomographic imaging procedures.

Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.