Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

An overview of the proposal for a new Package Travel Directive

After an endless wait, a proposal for a new Package Travel Directive repealing Directive 90/314/EEC1 was presented on 9 July 2013 (hereafter, the Proposal).This article is aimed at providing an overall view of the Proposal. I will address the following issues: The concept of traveller; online package holidays and assisted travel arrangements; information requirements; a new particular right of withdrawal for package travel; other changes to the contract before the start of the package; performance of the Package; and insolvency protection. Some early concluding remarks are made as to when a future Package Travel Directive might take place at some future date

Travel in Finland

20 x 22 cm

Travel in Finland

kuv., 12 x 18 cm

Travel in Finland

kuv., 12 x 18 cm

Travel on the Saimaa

kuv., 14 x 20 cm

Drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service adoption : a study of individual perceptions and business model development in a travel and tourism context

The Travel and Tourism field is undergoing changes due to the rapid development of information technology and digital services. Online travel has profoundly changed the way travel and tourism organizations interact with their customers. Mobile technology such as mobile services for pocket devices (e.g. mobile phones) has the potential to take this development even further. Nevertheless, many issues have been highlighted since the early days of mobile services development (e.g. the lack of relevance, ease of use of many services). However, the wide adoption of smartphones and the mobile Internet in many countries as well as the formation of so-called ecosystems between vendors of mobile technology indicate that many of these issues have been overcome. Also when looking at the numbers of downloaded applications related to travel in application stores like Google Play, it seems obvious that mobile travel and tourism services are adopted and used by many individuals. However, as business is expected to start booming in the mobile era, many issues have a tendency to be overlooked. Travelers are generally on the go and thus services that work effectively in mobile settings (e.g. during a trip) are essential. Hence, the individuals’ perceived drivers and barriers to use mobile travel and tourism services in on-site or during trip settings seem particularly valuable to understand; thus this is one primary aim of the thesis. We are, however, also interested in understanding different types of mobile travel service users. Individuals may indeed be very different in their propensity to adopt and use technology based innovations (services). Research is also switching more from investigating issues of mobile service development to understanding individuals’ usage patterns of mobile services. But designing new mobile services may be a complex matter from a service provider perspective. Hence, our secondary aim is to provide insights into drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service development from a holistic business model perspective. To accomplish the research objectives seven different studies have been conducted over a time period from 2002 – 2013. The studies are founded on and contribute to theories within diffusion of innovations, technology acceptance, value creation, user experience and business model development. Several different research methods are utilized: surveys, field and laboratory experiments and action research. The findings suggest that a successful mobile travel and tourism service is a service which supports one or several mobile motives (needs) of individuals such as spontaneous needs, time-critical arrangements, efficiency ambitions, mobility related needs (location features) and entertainment needs. The service could be customized to support travelers’ style of traveling (e.g. organized travel or independent travel) and should be easy to use, especially easy to take into use (access, install and learn) during a trip, without causing security concerns and/or financial risks for the user. In fact, the findings suggest that the most prominent barrier to the use of mobile travel and tourism services during a trip is an individual’s perceived financial cost (entry costs and usage costs). It should, however, be noted that regulations are put in place in the EU regarding data roaming prices between European countries and national telecom operators are starting to see ‘international data subscriptions’ as a sales advantage (e.g. Finnish Sonera provides a data subscription in the Baltic and Nordic region at the same price as in Finland), which will enhance the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services also in international contexts. In order to speed up the adoption rate travel service providers could consider e.g. more local initiatives of free Wi-Fi networks, development of services that can be used, at least to some extent, in an offline mode (do not require costly network access during a trip) and cooperation with telecom operators (e.g. lower usage costs for travelers who use specific mobile services or travel with specific vendors). Furthermore, based on a developed framework for user experience of mobile trip arrangements, the results show that a well-designed mobile site and/or native application, which preferably supports integration with other mobile services, is a must for true mobile presence. In fact, travel service providers who want to build a relationship with their customers need to consider a downloadable native application, but in order to be found through the mobile channel and make contact with potential new customers, a mobile website should be available. Moreover, we have made a first attempt with cluster analysis to identify user categories of mobile services in a travel and tourism context. The following four categories were identified: info-seekers, checkers, bookers and all-rounders. For example “all-rounders”, represented primarily by individuals who use their pocket device for almost any of the investigated mobile travel services, constituted primarily of 23 to 50 year old males with high travel frequency and great online experience. The results also indicate that travel service providers will increasingly become multi-channel providers. To manage multiple online channels, closely integrated and hybrid online platforms for different devices, supporting all steps in a traveler process should be considered. It could be useful for travel service providers to focus more on developing browser-based mobile services (HTML5-solutions) than native applications that work only with specific operating systems and for specific devices. Based on an action research study and utilizing a holistic business model framework called STOF we found that HTML5 as an emerging platform, at least for now, has some limitations regarding the development of the user experience and monetizing the application. In fact, a native application store (e.g. Google Play) may be a key mediator in the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services both from a traveler and a service provider perspective. Moreover, it must be remembered that many device and mobile operating system developers want service providers to specifically create services for their platforms and see native applications as a strategic advantage to sell more devices of a certain kind. The mobile telecom industry has moved into a battle of ecosystems where device makers, developers of operating systems and service developers are to some extent forced to choose their development platforms.

The grand voyage : the experience, the narrated experience and the experience economy : an analysis of ocean cruisers' travel blogs

Lectio praecursoria, Åbo Akademi University 7 June 2013.

Westerners in search of the legendary potion : ayahuasca travel in the borderland between tourism and pilgrimage

The thesis examines the phenomenon most commonly known as “ayahuasca tourism” – i.e. the practice of westerners traveling to South America and partaking in ceremonies in which a powerful entheogenic brew, ayahuasca, is consumed. While this popular phenomenon has been steadily increasing during the last decades, it has, however, been insufficiently studied by scholars. An important question which has not been properly addressed in earlier studies is how ayahuasca tourism relates to the wider occurrence of travel and how it should be perceived with reference to the theoretical frameworks on the subject of travel. Drawing on theories regarding pilgrimage and tourism, the main purpose of this thesis is to examine the relationship between ayahuasca tourism and the broader spectrum of travel. In particular, the study tests the designations “pilgrimage”, “religious tourism” and “spiritual tourism” with reference to ayahuasca tourism. Utilizing earlier literature as well as ayahuasca tourists‟ reports obtained from an Internet forum as a basis for analysis, I search for a suitable terminology to be used for the phenomenon. The study lays special emphasis on the protagonists‟ motivations, experiences and outcomes in order to take note of various aspects of the wide-ranging occurrence of ayahuasca tourism. Key findings indicate that ayahuasca tourism is best understood as a combination of pilgrimage and tourism. On the basis of the analysis I argue that ayahuasca tourism should be labeled as “pilgrimage” and/or “spiritual tourism”, and the tourists respectively as “pilgrims” and/or “spiritual tourists”. The category of “religious tourism/tourist”, on the other hand, turns out to be an inappropriate designation when describing the phenomenon. In general, through my study I show that the results are consistent with the present trend in the study of travel to perceive pilgrimage and tourism as theoretically similar phenomena. The study of ayahuasca tourism serves thus as living proof of contemporary travel, in which the categories of pilgrimage and tourism are often indistinguishable. I suggest that ayahuasca tourism is by no means exceptional on this point, but can rather be used as an illustration of modern travel forms on a general level. Thus, the present study does not only add to the research of ayahuasca tourism, but also provides additional insights into the study of travel.