A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Improved residential electricity demand management through analysis of the customer perspective

Peak electricity demand requires substantial investment to update transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure. A successful community peak demand reduction project was examined to identify residential consumer motivational and contextual factors involved in their decision to adopt/not adopt interventions. Energy professionals actively worked to achieve community 'peer' membership and by becoming a trusted information source, facilitated voluntary home energy assessment requests from over 80% of the residential community. By combining and tailoring interventions to the specific needs and motivations of individual householders and the community, interventions promoting energy conservation and efficiency can be effective in achieving sustained reduction in peak demand.

Impact of particle formation on atmospheric ions and particle number concentrations in an urban environment

A measurement campaign was conducted from 3 to 19 December 2012 at an urban site of Brisbane, Australia. Size distribution of ions and particle number concentrations were measured to investigate the influence of particle formation and biomass burning on atmospheric ion and particle concentrations. Overall ion and particle number concentrations during the measurement period were found to be (-1.2 x 103 cm-3 | +1.6 x 103 cm-3) and 4.4 x 103, respectively. The results of correlation analysis between concentrations of ions and nitrogen oxides indicated that positive and negative ions originated from similar sources, and that vehicle exhaust emissions had a more significant influence on intermediate/large ions, while cluster ions rapidly attached to larger particles once emitted into the atmosphere. Diurnal variations in ion concentration suggested the enrichment of intermediate and large ions on new particle formation event days, indicating that they were involved in the particle formation processes. Elevated total ions, particularly larger ions, and particle number concentrations were found during biomass burning episodes. This could be due to the attachment of cluster ions onto accumulation mode particles or production of charged particles from biomass burning, which were in turn transported to the measurement site. The results of this work enhance scientific understanding of the sources of atmospheric ions in an urban environment, as well as their interactions with particles during particle formation processes.

Effect of atmospheric aging on volatility and reactive oxygen species of biodiesel exhaust nano-particles

In the prospect of limited energy resources and climate change, effects of alternative biofuels on primary emissions are being extensively studied. Our two recent studies have shown that biodiesel fuel composition has a significant impact on primary particulate matter emissions. It was also shown that particulate matter caused by biodiesels was substantially different from the emissions due to petroleum diesel. Emissions appeared to have higher oxidative potential with the increase in oxygen content and decrease of carbon chain length and unsaturation levels of fuel molecules. Overall, both studies concluded that chemical composition of biodiesel is more important than its physical properties in controlling exhaust particle emissions. This suggests that the atmospheric aging processes, including secondary organic aerosol formation, of emissions from different fuels will be different as well. In this study, measurements were conducted on a modern common-rail diesel engine. To get more information on realistic properties of tested biodiesel particulate matter once they are released into the atmosphere, particulate matter was exposed to atmospheric oxidants, ozone and ultra-violet light; and the change in their properties was monitored for different biodiesel blends. Upon the exposure to oxidative agents, the chemical composition of the exhaust changes. It triggers the cascade of photochemical reactions resulting in the partitioning of semi-volatile compounds between the gas and particulate phase. In most of the cases, aging lead to the increase in volatility and oxidative potential, and the increment of change was mainly dependent on the chemical composition of fuels as the leading cause for the amount and the type of semi-volatile compounds present in the exhaust.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma-induced colorectal cancer cell death is mediated by Nox2-ASK1 apoptosis pathways and oxidative stress is mitigated by Srx-Nrf2 anti-oxidant system

Atmospheric pressure gas plasma (AGP) generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) that induce apoptosis in cultured cancer cells. The majority of cancer cells develop a ROS-scavenging anti-oxidant system regulated by Nrf2, which confers resistance to ROS-mediated cancer cell death. Generation of ROS is involved in the AGP-induced cancer cell death of several colorectal cancer cells (Caco2, HCT116 and SW480) by activation of ASK1-mediated apoptosis signaling pathway without affecting control cells (human colonic sub-epithelial myofibroblasts; CO18, human fetal lung fibroblast; MRC5 and fetal human colon; FHC). However, the identity of an oxidase participating in AGP-induced cancer cell death is unknown. Here, we report that AGP up-regulates the expression of Nox2 (NADPH oxidase) to produce ROS. RNA interference designed to target Nox2 effectively inhibits the AGP-induced ROS production and cancer cell death. In some cases both colorectal cancer HT29 and control cells showed resistance to AGP treatment. Compared to AGP-sensitive Caco2 cells, HT29 cells show a higher basal level of the anti-oxidant system transcriptional regulator Nrf2 and its target protein sulfiredoxin (Srx) which are involved in cellular redox homeostasis. Silencing of both Nrf2 and Srx sensitized HT29 cells, leads to ROS overproduction and decreased cell viability. This indicates that in HT29 cells, Nrf2/Srx axis is a protective factor against AGP-induced oxidative stress. The inhibition of Nrf2/Srx signaling should be considered as a central target in drug-resistant colorectal cancer treatments.

Compositional agent-based models for electricity distribution networks

This thesis presents a novel approach to building large-scale agent-based models of networked physical systems using a compositional approach to provide extensibility and flexibility in building the models and simulations. A software framework (MODAM - MODular Agent-based Model) was implemented for this purpose, and validated through simulations. These simulations allow assessment of the impact of technological change on the electricity distribution network looking at the trajectories of electricity consumption at key locations over many years.

Characterisation, toxicity and source apportionment of atmospheric organic pollutants in urban schools

Airborne organic pollutants have significant impacts on health; however their sources, atmospheric characteristics and resulting human exposures are poorly understood. This research characterized chemical composition of atmospheric volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and carbonyls in representative number of primary schools in Brisbane Metropolitan Area, quantified their concentrations, assessed their toxicity and apportioned them to their sources. The findings expand scientific knowledge of these pollutants, and will contribute towards science based management of risks associated with pollution emissions and air quality in schools and other urban and indoor environments.

The atmospheric extinction of light

An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a traveling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficient for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

Atmospheric Noise on the Bispectrum in Optical Speckle Interferometry

Based on a simple picture of speckle phenomena in optical interferometry it is shown that the recent signal-to-noise ratio estimate for the so called bispectrum, due to Wirnitzer (1985), does not possess the right limit when photon statistics is unimportant. In this wave-limit, which is true for bright sources, his calculations over-estimate the signal-to-noise ratio for the bispectrum by a factor of the order of the square root of the number of speckles.

Electricity pricing in New Zealand and the Australian State of Queensland: Accounting for the impact of sector restructuring

The electricity industries of New Zealand (NZ) and the Australian state of Queensland have undergone substantial structural and regulatory reform with the common intent to improve economic efficiency. Deregulation and privatisation have been key elements of the reform but have been approached differently by each jurisdiction. This study traces the link between structural and regulatory regimes and asset valuation, profits and, ultimately, pricing. The study finds that key drivers in recent price increases are the government-owned generation and retail sector in NZ and the government-owned distribution sector in Queensland. It is concluded that, contrary to the rationale for the imposition of regulatory controls in a nonmarket environment, the regulatory regimes appear to have contributed to higher rather than lower pricing structures.

Atmospheric visibility and PM10 as indicators of new particle formation in an urban environment

It is well-known that new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is inhibited by pre-existing particles in the air that act as condensation sinks to decrease the concentration and, thus, the supersaturation of precursor gases. In this study, we investigate the effects of two parameters - atmospheric visibility, expressed as the particle back-scatter coefficient (BSP), and PM10 particulate mass concentration, on the occurrences of NPF events in an urban environment where the majority of precursor gases originate from motor vehicle and industrial sources. This is the first attempt to derive direct relationships between each of these two parameters and the occurrence of NPF. NPF events were identified from data obtained with a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer over 245 days within a calendar year. Bayesian logistic regression was used to determine the probability of observing NPF as functions of BSP and PM10. We show that the BSP at 08 h on a given day is a reliable indicator of an NPF event later that day. The posterior median probability of observing an NPF event was greater than 0.5 (95%) when the BSP at 08 h was less than 6.8 Mm-1.