Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

THE CO-INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COASTAL UPWELLING AT CABO FRIO: A NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION USING COUPLED MODELS

A coupled atmospheric-oceanic model was used to investigate whether there is a positive feedback between the coastal upwelling and the sea breeze at Cabo Frio - RJ (Brazil). Two experiments were performed to ascertain the influence of the sea breeze on the coastal upwelling: the first one used the coupled model forced with synoptic NE winds of 8 m s(-1) and the sign of the sea breeze circulation was set by the atmospheric model; the second experiment used only the oceanic model with constant 8 m s(-1) NE winds. Then, to study the influence of the coastal upwelling on the sea breeze, two more experiments were performed: one using a coastal upwelling representative SST initial field and the other one using a constant and homogeneous SST field of 26 degrees C. Finally, two more experiments were conducted to verify the influence of the topography and the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature on the previous results. The results showed that the sea breeze can intensify the coastal upwelling, but the coastal upwelling does not intensify the sea breeze circulation, suggesting that there is no positive feedback between these two phenomena at Cabo Frio.

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Orbitally driven east-west antiphasing of South American precipitation

The variations of tropical precipitation are antiphased between the hemispheres on orbital timescales. This antiphasing arises through the alternating strength of incoming solar radiation in the two hemispheres, which affects monsoon intensity and hence the position of the meridional atmospheric circulation of the Hadley cells(1-4). Here we compare an oxygen isotopic record recovered from a speleothem from northeast Brazil for the past 26,000 years with existing reconstructions of precipitation in tropical South America(5-8). During the Holocene, we identify a similar, but zonally oriented, antiphasing of precipitation within the same hemisphere: northeast Brazil experiences humid conditions during low summer insolation and aridity when summer insolation is high, whereas the rest of southern tropical South America shows opposite characteristics. Simulations with a general circulation model that incorporates isotopic variations support this pattern as well as the link to insolation-driven monsoon activity. Our results suggest that convective heating over tropical South America and associated adjustments in large-scale subsidence over northeast Brazil lead to a remote forcing of the South American monsoon, which determines most of the precipitation changes in the region on orbital timescales.

Related changes in biodiversity, insolation and climate in the Atlantic rainforest since the last interglacial

The long-term Colonia record is located in the Atlantic rainforest domain in Brazil (23 degrees 52`S 46 degrees 42`20 `` W 900 m a.s.l.). The 780 cm long core CO3 provides a coverage of a complete interglacial/glacial cycle for the first time in a neotropical rainforest. Information on the behavior of tropical climates compared to global changes in temperatures indicates specific climate responses in terms of precipitation at these latitudes. Winter extratropical circulation was very active during the last interglacial and most of the glacial. Floristic composition of the rainforest changed several times in each phase of expansion, twice during the interglacial, and three times during glacial episodes. Araucaria was well developed in the area of Sao Paulo until the beginning of the first dry phase of the glacial at ca. 50,000 yr B.P. Changes in insolation controlled the expansion of the rainforest and the tropical hydrological cycle as evidenced by a strong precession signal. However precession had no impact on regional climatic features. The two interglacials (MIS 5e and Holocene) showed completely different patterns attesting to the continuous evolution of the forest. The biodiversity index (Shannon-Wiener Index) remained high during both the interglacial and glacial attesting to the permanence of small patches of rainforest refugia during drier phases. The lowest Shannon-Wiener Indexes were recorded between 23,000 and 12,000 yr B.P. and 40,000 and 30,000 yr B.P. and characterize two marked phases of stress for the rainforest. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of blowouts and foredunes in the Ilha Comprida barrier (Southeastern Brazil): the influence of Late Holocene climate changes on coastal sedimentation

Middle to Late Holocene barriers are conspicuous landforms in southeastern and southern Brazilian regions. The barriers in the coastal zones of northern Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo states (27 degrees 19`-24 degrees 00`S) are formed mainly by beach ridge alignments and many barriers present foredune and blowout alignments in their seaward portion. The development of these eolian landforms appears to record a regional shift in coastal dynamics and barrier building. In this context, the Ilha Comprida barrier stands out for its well-developed and well-preserved foredunes and blowouts. Based on the presence or not and type of eolian landforms, the Ilha Comprida barrier can be divided seaward into inner, middle and outer units. The inner unit is formed entirely by beach ridges. The middle unit comprises a narrow belt of blowouts (up to 15 m high) aligned alongshore. Blowout lobes pointing NNW are indicative of their generation by southern winds. The outer unit is represented by low (<= 1 m high) active or stabilized foredunes and a small transgressive dunefield (similar to 1 km(2)). Twenty-seven luminescence ages (SAR protocol) obtained for the beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts of these three units allow definition of a precise chronology of these landforms and calculation of rates of coastal progradation. The inner unit presents ages greater than 1004 +/- 88 years. The blowouts of the middle unit show ages from 575 +/- 47 to 172 +/- 18 years. The ages of the outer unit are less than 108 +/- 10 years. Rates of coastal progradation for the inner and outer units are 0.71-0.82 m/year and 0.86-2.23 m/year, respectively. The main phase of blowout development correlates well with the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic event. These results indicate that southern winds in subtropical Brazil became increasingly more intense and/or frequent during the LIA. These conditions persist to the present and are responsible for the development of the eolian landforms in the outer unit. Thus, barrier geomorphology can record global climatic events. The sensitivity of barrier systems in subtropical Brazil to Late Holocene climate changes was favored by the relative sea level stillstand during this time. Luminescence dating makes it possible to analyze barrier geomorphology during Late Holocene climate changes operating on timescales of a hundred to thousand years. These results improve our knowledge of barrier building and will help in the evaluation of the impact of future climate changes on coastal settings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Dinâmica da paisagem no litoral oriental do Rio Grande do Norte: geocartografia e padrões espaciais dos campos de dunas móveis

This study shows the results of a research developed in the coastal regions of the Maxaranguape and Touros municipalities, more specific in the mobile dune fields of the Rio Grande do Norte's eastern coast. Although the coastal zones, represent a small percentage of the earth's surface it concentrates a great part of the world's population. The Rio Grande do Norte's state coastal landscape mosaic composed by the dune fields suggest a dynamic scene of changes in the spatial and temporal arranges, with significant changes in the geometry of the sedimentary cover. Following this perspective this research has the objective to map the emerged coastal zone of the Rio Grande do Norte's eastern coast under the perspective of the time-space evolution of the mobile dune fields using geoprocessing techniques, which includes remote sensing, digital images processing and geographic information system (GIS). The results imply the issue of thematic maps: Geologic map; multitemporal evolution map of the mobile dune fields; quantification of the mobile dune fields differences map; temporal evolution of the mobile dune fields surrounds map. The El Niño episodes have directly affected the atmospheric circulation, what have enhanced the sedimentary input in the sand dune, what can justify the relative area growth between the years of 1993 and 2001. The dynamic of the landscape transition were higher than the stability of the spatial pattern of the dune and it's surrounds, as a result the Rio Grande do Norte eastern coast dune fields, specially the mobile dunes from Touros, Zumbi and Maracajau have shown a decrease on the sedimentary cover without vegetation area from 1970 to 2007. Therefore, the data acquired and the techniques used, can be, eventually applied to the mobile dune fields monitoring in order to preserve the dune ecosystems in the Rio Grande do Norte coast

Eventos extremos da zona de convergência intertropical sobre o Atlântico durante o período chuvoso da Amazônia oriental

Este trabalho reporta uma investigação observacional sobre as características climatológicas (período de 1985 a 2007) associadas aos eventos extremos da ZCIT observados sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial, procurando estabelecer as influências na variabilidade pluviométrica da Amazônia oriental, durante os meses de fevereiro, março e abril. Tais eventos foram selecionados objetivamente através da análise de Funções Ortogonais Empíricas e os padrões oceano-atmosfera associados aos eventos da ZCIT, bem como seus impactos na precipitação da Amazônia oriental, foram investigados com base em composições mensais. Os resultados evidenciaram algumas diferenças mensais, principalmente no padrão da circulação atmosférica em 200 hPa e na configuração vertical da circulação troposférica meridional associada à célula de Hadley equatorial. Quanto à estrutura dinâmica dos padrões oceano-atmosfera observada nos meses de fevereiro, março e abril, basicamente evidenciou-se que a ZCIT forma-se sobre o Oceano Atlântico equatorial numa região de confluência dos ventos alísios de sudeste e nordeste, coincidente com áreas contendo TSM anomalamente quente, movimento vertical ascendente associado à célula de Hadley, com divergência do vento em altos níveis. Os impactos de tais eventos na variabilidade espacial da precipitação sobre a Amazônia oriental mostrou que os principais estados afetados pela ZCIT são: Amapá, Pará e Maranhão. Adicionalmente, relatam-se alguns impactos sócio-ambientais (enchentes, alagamentos, queda de árvores, proliferação de doenças, entre outros) que ocorreram na Região Metropolitana de Belém, associados a ocorrência dos eventos extremos da ZCIT selecionados neste trabalho.

Comportamento Espacial dos Percentis 75 da Precipitação Decencial para O Estado de São Paulo, Na Primavera

No presente estudo foi avaliada a distribuição espacial do percentil 75 da precipitação decendial para o Estado de São Paulo, utilizando-se um total de 136 postos pluviométricos com séries acima de 27 anos de registros. Em um estágio preliminar os valores dos percentis 75 da precipitação decendial foram georeferenciados, permitindo a utilização de técnicas da geoestatística para proceder à interpolação dos dados. Modelos experimentais de semivariogramas padronizados foram obtidos, utilizando-se a variância amostral como fator de escalonamento, permitindo a verificação de proporcionalidade entre os modelos e agrupando-os sob a mesma tendência. O modelo teórico exponencial foi o que melhor se ajustou aos semivariogramas experimentais, seguido pelo modelo esférico. Os parâmetros estimados para os modelos, efeito pepita, patamar e alcance foram utilizados para a realização da krigagem e confecção dos mapas de isolinhas. A distribuição espacial dos percentis 75 da precipitação decendial reflete o comportamento da circulação atmosférica no Estado, apresentando alta variabilidade. As regiões oeste , sudoeste e noroeste apresentaram as menores intensidades de precipitação e foram variáveis de acordo com os níveis temporais na primavera. A região litorânea apresentou as maiores intensidades de precipitação para quase todos os níveis temporais estudados, diferenciando-se das demais regiões do Estado. A exceção foi à região nordeste no final da primavera que apresentou valores de intensidades maiores do que os registrados no litoral. A faixa litorânea apresentou comportamento homogêneo, detectado pelo forte agrupamento das isolinhas em quase todos os decêndios analisados.

Circulação atmosférica e precipitação pluviométrica na Bacia do Itajaí - SC: um estudo climatológico aplicado

The work is guided by the detailing of the Itajaí river basin, SC, rainfall dynamics at the annual, seasonal and monthly levels, allowing us to identify different responses that each location gives to the regional atmospheric circulation, particularly the rainfall. In this sense, we are aiming at approaching the concept of rhythm, which must be obtained at the daily level. The analysis at different climate scales was possible through isohyetal maps, trend lines, and Schroeder pluviographs. Moreover, we established the flow rate of the air masses by means of the Venn diagram. This data made it possible to assess the behavior of rains on that site and the reason why it is the stage of major flooding, as occurred in November 2008. The relatively mountainous topography combined with the frequent invasions of the Atlantic Polar Front, which often stop over the region, generate events of that magnitude, with high volumes accumulated in short periods of time. Such extreme events reinforce the idea of the search for the succession of types of weather to the detriment of averages that tend to abstract the reality