Análise espacial dos resultados eleitorais em Portugal – Aplicação do Geographically Weighted Regression

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação.

Análise espacial dos resultados eleitorais em Portugal – Aplicação do Geographically Weighted Regression

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Ants obtained from trees of a "Jacareuba" (Calophyllum brasiliense) forest plantation in Central Amazonia by canopy fogging: first results

Canopies of the locally occurring Amazonian tree species Calophyllum brasiliense. Camb. (Guttiferae, height 10 m) were fogged after dawn on the same day at five adjacent localities in a 20-year-old plantation at the Adolpho Ducke Forest Reserve near Manaus/Brazil, using natural pyrethrum (0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%), Baythroid (0.3%) and diesel oil, respectively. The 1152 ants collected represented 52 species, 17 genera and five subfamilies. The highest number of ant species was obtained with the synthetic pyrethrum Baythroid 0.3% and with natural pyrethrum 1.5%. About 46% of the total ant species were only collected in the first hour after fogging, and 17% only during the second hour, after trees had been heavily shaken. About 73% of the total ant specimens dropped in the first hour. Data on alpha-diversity, eveness and frequency of ants indicated a rapidly decreasing knock-down effect of both the synthetic and natural pyrethrum after application. The ant fauna in the canopy of C. brasiliense is somewhat distinct compared with that of Goupia glabra Aubl. (Celastraceae, height 45 m) from the primary forest of the reserve.

Levels of leaf Herbivory in Amazonian trees from different stages In forest regeneration

Leaves from 120 canopy trees and 60 understory tree saplings growing in primary and secondary forests near Manaus, Brazil, were collected for determination of standing levels of herbivory (percent leaf area lost). Overall, levels of herbivory on leaves of central Amazonian trees were low. About one quarter of the leaves examined (n = 855) had no damage at all. In most other Neotropical sites studied the mean percentage of herbivory was found to vary between 5.7 and 13.1%, whereas in Manaus it was only 3.1%. The data presented here support the contention that levels of herbivore damage are positively related to soil fertility. No significant difference was found in herbivory levels between canopy trees and understory saplings. Also, there was no difference in damage between leaves from pioneer and late successional trees. Field assays of preference, however, revealed that leaves from pioneer trees are more palatable to leaf-cutting ants (Atta laevigata). This effect was dependent upon leaf age, being observed in mature leaves, but not in young leaves. The greater rate of leaf production in secondary forests may be a factor accounting for the greater abundance of leaf-cutting ants in secondary compared to primary forests.

Wood density of trees in black water floodplains of Rio Jaú National Park, Amazonia, Brazil

The Jaú National Park is the largest protected forested area in the world. The Vitória Amazônica Foundation is working towards understanding its ecosystem, to which this paper contributes. Wood density was analysed in 27 common tree species growing in the blackwater flood-plains of the Rio Jaú, an affluent of the Rio Negro (Amazonia, Brazil). Wood was sampled with an increment borer. Mean wood density of the analysed species ranged from 0.35 to 0.87 g cm-3. The mean of all sampled species was 0.67 g cm-3 (st. dev. 0.13). Lowest density was found for Hevea spruceana with 0.32 g cm-3 and highest for Crudia amazonica with 0.9 g cm-3.

Wood specific gravity of trees and forest types in the southern Peruvian Amazon

Estimates of terrestrial biomass depend critically on reliable information about the specific gravity of the wood of forest trees. The study reported on here was carried out in the southern Peruvian Amazon and involved collection of wood samples from trees (70 spp.) in intact forest stands. Results demonstrate the high degree of variability in specific gravity (ovendry weight/green volume) in trees at single locations. Three forest types (swamp, high terrace forest with alluvial soil, and sandy-soil forest) had values close to the average reported for tropical forest woods (.69). Two early successional forest types, which make up as much as 12% of the total vegetated area in this part of the Amazon, had values significantly lower (.40). An increase in specific gravity with increasing age of the tree, which has been reported in some spe cies of tropical-forest woods, is seen in a positive relationship between specific gravity and di ameter for a species prevalent in one plot. Increases in specific gravity with tree and forest age may be significant in estimating changes in carbon stores over time.

Seasonal changes of leaf Nitrogen content in trees of Amazonian floodplains

In Amazonian floodplains the trees are exposed to extreme flooding of up to 230 days a year. Waterlogging of the roots and stems affects growth and metabolic activity of the trees. An increased leaf fall in the aquatic period and annual increment rings in the wood indicate periodical growth reductions. The present study aims at documenting seasonal changes of metabolism and vitality of adult trees in the annual cycle as expressed by changes of leaf nitrogen content. Leaves of six tree species common in floodplains in Central Amazonia and typical representants of different growth strategies were collected every month between May 1994 and June 1995 in the vicinity of Manaus, Brazil. Mean leaf nitrogen content varied between 1.3% and 3.2% in the non-flooded trees. Three species showed significantly lower Ν content in the flooded period (p=0.05, 0.001, 0.001), the difference ranging 20-25% lower than in the non-flooded period. Two species showed no significant difference while Nectandra amazonum showed 32% more Ν in the flooded season (p=0.001). Leaf nitrogen content was generally high when new leaves were flushed (in the flooded period) and decreased continuously thereafter in all species. Three species showed an additional peak of nitrogen during the first month of the terrestrial phase, in leaves which had flushed earlier, indicating that flooding may disturb nitrogen uptake.

Abundance of two Dendrocincla woodcreepers (aves: Dendrocolaptidae) in relation to forest structure in Central Amazonia

Few studies have been conducted to verify how the structure of the forest affects the occurence and abundance of neotropical birds. Our research was undertaken between January 2002 and July 2004 at the Reserva Ducke, near Manaus (02º55',03º01'S; 59º53',59º59'W) in central Amazonia, to verify how the forest structure affects the occurrence and abundance of two bird species: the Plain-brown Woodcreeper Dendrocincla fuliginosa and the White-chinned Woodcreeper Dendrocincla merula. Bird species occurrence was recorded using lines of 20 mist-nets (one sample unit), along 51 1-km transects distributed along 9 pararel 8 km trails covering an area of 6400 ha. Along these transects, we placed 50 x 50m plots where we recorded forest structure components (tree abundance, canopy openness, leaf litter, standing dead trees, logs, proximity to streams, and altitude). We then related these variables to bird occurence and abundance using multiple logistic and multiple linear regression models, respectively. We found that D. fuliginosa frequently used plateau areas; being more abundant in areas with more trees. On the other hand, D. merula occurred more frequently and was more abundant in areas with low tree abundance. Our results suggest that although both species overlap in the reserve (both were recorded in at least 68% of the sampled sites), they differ in the way they use the forest microhabitats. Therefore, local variation in the forest structure may contribute to the coexistence of congeneric species and may help to maintain local alpha diversity.

Soil mineral N dynamics beneath mixtures of leaves from legume and fruit trees in Central Amazonian multi-strata agroforests

Long term applications of leguminous green mulch could increase mineralizable nitrogen (N) beneath cupuaçu trees produced on the infertile acidic Ultisols and Oxisols of the Amazon Basin. However, low quality standing cupuaçu litter could interfere with green mulch N release and soil N mineralization. This study compared mineral N, total N, and microbial biomass N beneath cupuaçu trees grown in two different agroforestry systems, north of Manaus, Brazil, following seven years of different green mulch application rates. To test for net interactions between green mulch and cupuaçu litter, dried gliricidia and inga leaves were mixed with senescent cupuaçu leaves, surface applied to an Oxisol soil, and incubated in a greenhouse for 162 days. Leaf decomposition, N release and soil N mineralization were periodically measured in the mixed species litter treatments and compared to single species applications. The effect of legume biomass and cupuaçu litter on soil mineral N was additive implying that recommendations for green mulch applications to cupuaçu trees can be based on N dynamics of individual green mulch species. Results demonstrated that residue quality, not quantity, was the dominant factor affecting the rate of N release from leaves and soil N mineralization in a controlled environment. In the field, complex N cycling and other factors, including soil fauna, roots, and microclimatic effects, had a stronger influence on available soil N than residue quality.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Mites (Arachnida, Acari) on Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck orange trees in the state of Amazonas, Northern Brazil

Despite the importance of citriculture in Brazil, very little is known about mite populations in citrus crops in the Northern Region. In the municipality of Manaus, 12 sprayed sweet orange orchards were surveyed every two weeks during seven months to record mite species amount, and to describe the abundance and distribution of the most important species. The size and age of the orchards varied from 3,360 to 88,080 m² and seven to 25 years, respectively. In the fourteen sampling period, leaves, twigs and fruits were collected from 12 trees, one per orchard. In total, 3,360 leaves, 672 twigs and 1,344 fruits were sampled from 168 trees. Mites were manually extracted from the fruits, and by the washing method on leaves and twigs. We identified pests with the potential to cause economic loss. Fourteen species of phytophagous and mycophagous mites from Eriophyidae, Tarsonemidae, Tenuipalpidae, and Tetranychidae were recorded. Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes 1939) and Phyllocoptruta oleivora (Ashm., 1879), the two commonest phytophagous mites in other Brazilian regions were dominant, showing that local orchards are susceptible to their infestation. Eleven predatory mites were recorded, comprising 10% of the mite population, belonging to Phytoseiidae and Ascidae. Phytoseiidae was the richest family, with ten species. The results are discussed in relation to the temporal variation aspects and habitat use of the most important species. Long-term research encompassing chemical applications followed by evaluations of the mite community are necessary for a better management of the orchards, taking into consideration the seasonal phenology of key pests.