Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

Objective: To estimate the absolute treatment effect of statin therapy on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death) for the individual patient aged C70 years. Methods: Prediction models for MACE were derived in patients aged C70 years with (n = 2550) and without (n = 3253) vascular disease from the ‘‘PROspective Study of Pravastatin in Elderly at Risk’’ (PROSPER) trial and validated in the ‘‘Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease’’ (SMART) cohort study (n = 1442) and the ‘‘Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Lipid Lowering Arm’’ (ASCOT-LLA) trial (n = 1893), respectively, using competing risk analysis. Prespecified predictors were various clinical characteristics including statin treatment. Individual absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for MACE in 5 and 10 years were estimated by subtracting ontreatment from off-treatment risk. Results: Individual ARRs were higher in elderly patients with vascular disease [5-year ARRs: median 5.1 %, interquartile range (IQR) 4.0–6.2 %, 10-year ARRs: median 7.8 %, IQR 6.8–8.6 %] than in patients without vascular disease (5-year ARRs: median 1.7 %, IQR 1.3–2.1 %, 10-year ARRs: 2.9 %, IQR 2.3–3.6 %). Ninetyeight percent of patients with vascular disease had a 5-year ARR C2.0 %, compared to 31 % of patients without vascular disease. Conclusions: With a multivariable prediction model the absolute treatment effect of a statin on MACE for individual elderly patients with and without vascular disease can be quantified. Because of high ARRs, treating all patients is more beneficial than prediction-based treatment for secondary prevention of MACE. For primary prevention of MACE, the prediction model can be used to identify those patients who benefit meaningfully from statin therapy.

Labor Scheduling Using NPV Estimates of the Marginal Benefit of Additional Labor Capacity

An extensive literature exists on the problems of daily (shift) and weekly (tour) labor scheduling. In representing requirements for employees in these problems, researchers have used formulations based either on the model of Dantzig (1954) or on the model of Keith (1979). We show that both formulations have weakness in environments where management knows, or can attempt to identify, how different levels of customer service affect profits. These weaknesses results in lower-than-necessary profits. This paper presents a New Formulation of the daily and weekly Labor Scheduling Problems (NFLSP) designed to overcome the limitations of earlier models. NFLSP incorporates information on how changing the number of employees working in each planning period affects profits. NFLP uses this information during the development of the schedule to identify the number of employees who, ideally, should be working in each period. In an extensive simulation of 1,152 service environments, NFLSP outperformed the formulations of Dantzig (1954) and Keith (1979) at a level of significance of 0.001. Assuming year-round operations and an hourly wage, including benefits, of $6.00, NFLSP's schedules were $96,046 (2.2%) and $24,648 (0.6%) more profitable, on average, than schedules developed using the formulations of Danzig (1954) and Keith (1979), respectively. Although the average percentage gain over Keith's model was fairly small, it could be much larger in some real cases with different parameters. In 73 and 100 percent of the cases we simulated NFLSP yielded a higher profit than the models of Keith (1979) and Danzig (1954), respectively.

Giving the benefit of the doubt: the role of vulnerability in the perception of Dark Triad behaviours.

The 'Dark Triad' of socially aversive personality traits (Machiavellianism, Narcissism, and Psychopathy) is typically associated with grandiosity, callousness, and exploitation. Despite this, people with such traits can be very successful in life, especially in the occupational context. This study investigated the characteristics of individuals who enable and abet people high on Dark Triad traits (e.g. through tolerating unpleasant behaviours, not challenging unethical conduct, etc.). High Dark Triad individuals may be able to identify individuals who are susceptible to social manipulation and who are therefore less likely to challenge their behaviours. This study used a 20-item Vulnerability Scale to capture the characteristics of individuals who fall victim to people high on the Dark Triad traits. Cronbach's alpha for the Vulnerability Scale was .80. Pearson's correlation between total vulnerability scores and each of the Big Five personality traits revealed that predictors of vulnerability to social manipulation include low extraversion, low conscientiousness, high neuroticism, and high agreeableness. The vignette method was used to elicit perceptions of Dark Triad behaviours from those who are found to demonstrate signs of social vulnerability. Differences in response styles on Likert-type statements and open-ended questions were found between the high and low vulnerability groups.

Long-term benefit of early pre-reperfusion metoprolol administration in patients with acute myocardial infarction: Results from the Metocard-CNIC trial (Effect of Metoprolol in Cardioprotection during an Acute Myocardial Infarction)

The goal of this trial was to study the long-term effects of intravenous (IV) metoprolol administration before reperfusion on left ventricular (LV) function and clinical events. Early IV metoprolol during ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has been shown to reduce infarct size when used in conjunction with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The METOCARD-CNIC (Effect of Metoprolol in Cardioprotection During an Acute Myocardial Infarction) trial recruited 270 patients with Killip class ≤II anterior STEMI presenting early after symptom onset (<6 h) and randomized them to pre-reperfusion IV metoprolol or control group. Long-term magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed on 202 patients (101 per group) 6 months after STEMI. Patients had a minimal 12-month clinical follow-up. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) at the 6 months MRI was higher after IV metoprolol (48.7 ± 9.9% vs. 45.0 ± 11.7% in control subjects; adjusted treatment effect 3.49%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.44% to 6.55%; p = 0.025). The occurrence of severely depressed LVEF (≤35%) at 6 months was significantly lower in patients treated with IV metoprolol (11% vs. 27%, p = 0.006). The proportion of patients fulfilling Class I indications for an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) was significantly lower in the IV metoprolol group (7% vs. 20%, p = 0.012). At a median follow-up of 2 years, occurrence of the pre-specified composite of death, heart failure admission, reinfarction, and malignant arrhythmias was 10.8% in the IV metoprolol group versus 18.3% in the control group, adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.55; 95% CI: 0.26 to 1.04; p = 0.065. Heart failure admission was significantly lower in the IV metoprolol group (HR: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.015 to 0.95; p = 0.046). In patients with anterior Killip class ≤II STEMI undergoing pPCI, early IV metoprolol before reperfusion resulted in higher long-term LVEF, reduced incidence of severe LV systolic dysfunction and ICD indications, and fewer heart failure admissions.

Intensive case management for severe psychotic illness: is there a general benefit for patients with complex needs? A secondary analysis of the UK700 trial data

The UK700 trial failed to demonstrate an overall benefit of intensive case management (ICM) in patients with severe psychotic illness. This does not discount a benefit for particular subgroups, and evidence of a benefit of ICM for patients of borderline intelligence has been presented. The aim of this study is to investigate whether this effect is part of a general benefit for patients with severe psychosis complicated by additional needs. In the UK700 trial patients with severe psychosis were randomly allocated to ICM or standard case management. For each patient group with complex needs the effect of ICM is compared with that in the rest of the study cohort. Outcome measures are days spent in psychiatric hospital and the admission and discharge rates. ICM may be of benefit to patients with severe psychosis complicated by borderline intelligence or depression, but may cause patients using illicit drugs to spend more time in hospital. There was no convincing evidence of an effect of ICM in a further seven patient groups. ICM is not of general benefit to patients with severe psychosis complicated by additional needs. The benefit of ICM for patients with borderline intelligence is an isolated effect which should be interpreted cautiously until further data are available.

Regular follow-up after curative resection of nonsmall cell lung cancer: a real benefit for patients?

Even though complete resection is regarded as the only curative treatment for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC), >50% of resected patients die from a recurrence or a second primary tumour of the lung within 5 yrs. It remains unclear, whether follow-up in these patients is cost-effective and whether it can improve the outcome due to early detection of recurrent tumour. The benefit of regular follow-up in a consecutive series of 563 patients, who had undergone potentially curative resection for NSCLC at the University Hospital, was analysed. The follow-up consisted of clinical visits and chest radiography according to a standard protocol for up to 10 yrs. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis method and the cost-effectiveness of the follow-up programme was assessed. A total of 23 patients (6.4% of the group with lobectomy) underwent further operation with curative intent for a second pulmonary malignancy. The regular follow-up over a 10-yr period provided the chance for a second curative treatment to 3.8% of all patients. The calculated costs per life-yr gained were 90,000 Swiss Francs. The cost-effectiveness of the follow-up protocol was far above those of comparable large-scale surveillance programmes. Based on these data, the intensity and duration of the follow-up was reduced.

Bank Governance and the Bail-in in the EU. A Law & Finance analysis on the role of bail-inable creditors

This dissertation assesses the impact of the EU Directive on Bank Recovery and Resolution (BRRD) on bank corporate governance and investigates a fundamental question. Can the resolution framework for distressed banks enhance the quality of banks’ decision making? According to the Directive, the Resolution Authority can impose losses on bank’s creditors in case of distress through a bail-in. Bail-inable creditors become residual claimants of the bank, contingent on its distress. The first part of the dissertation establishes an analytical framework for bank governance, starting from the problem of what can be defined as “good governance” in banking. The dissertation hypothesizes that governance regulation represents a necessary link between the incentives of corporate constituencies and the goals of substantive regulation. The second part builds upon this analytical framework and carries out a positive analysis encompassing three channels of debt governance; namely, price internalisation of risk; contractual arrangements and the discrete impact of different type of creditors. The existence of a resolution framework should incentivise bail-inable creditors to better discipline the borrowing bank; yet, the design of both the capital and resolution regulation largely foreclose such possibility to creditors. Against this backdrop, the third part of the dissertation moves to normative considerations. The approach to this normative part combines and complements the study of cash flow rights of the management with the study of the voting rights to bail-inable creditors. On the cash flow side, the dissertation proposes to include bail-inable debt as part of the variable remuneration for bank risk-takers. On the voting right, the proposal is to grant a limited basket of ex-ante governance rights to bail-inable creditors. Such a unified approach is rather uncommon in the literature, where cash flow rights and voting rights are often approached separately whereas those complement each other in the dissertation.

Some aspects of grading Java code submissions in MOOCs

Recently, massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been offering a new online approach in the field of distance learning and online education. A typical MOOC course consists of video lectures, reading material and easily accessible tests for students. For a computer programming course, it is important to provide interactive, dynamic, online coding exercises and more complex programming assignments for learners. It is expedient for the students to receive prompt feedback on their coding submissions. Although MOOC automated programme evaluation subsystem is capable of assessing source programme files that are in learning management systems, in MOOC systems there is a grader that is responsible for evaluating students’ assignments with the result that course staff would be required to assess thousands of programmes submitted by the participants of the course without the benefit of an automatic grader. This paper presents a new concept for grading programming submissions of students and improved techniques based on the Java unit testing framework that enables automatic grading of code chunks. Some examples are also given such as the creation of unique exercises by dynamically generating the parameters of the assignment in a MOOC programming course combined with the kind of coding style recognition to teach coding standards.

Reduced Insulin Clearance And Lower Insulin-degrading Enzyme Expression In The Liver Might Contribute To The Thrifty Phenotype Of Protein-restricted Mice.

Nutrient restriction during the early stages of life usually leads to alterations in glucose homeostasis, mainly insulin secretion and sensitivity, increasing the risk of metabolic disorders in adulthood. Despite growing evidence regarding the importance of insulin clearance during glucose homeostasis in health and disease, no information exists about this process in malnourished animals. Thus, in the present study, we aimed to determine the effect of a nutrient-restricted diet on insulin clearance using a model in which 30-d-old C57BL/6 mice were exposed to a protein-restricted diet for 14 weeks. After this period, we evaluated many metabolic variables and extracted pancreatic islet, liver, gastrocnemius muscle (GCK) and white adipose tissue samples from the control (normal-protein diet) and restricted (low-protein diet, LP) mice. Insulin concentrations were determined using RIA and protein expression and phosphorylation by Western blot analysis. The LP mice exhibited lower body weight, glycaemia, and insulinaemia, increased glucose tolerance and altered insulin dynamics after the glucose challenge. The improved glucose tolerance could partially be explained by an increase in insulin sensitivity through the phosphorylation of the insulin receptor/protein kinase B and AMP-activated protein kinase/acetyl-CoA carboxylase in the liver, whereas the changes in insulin dynamics could be attributed to reduced insulin secretion coupled with reduced insulin clearance and lower insulin-degrading enzyme (IDE) expression in the liver and GCK. In summary, protein-restricted mice not only produce and secrete less insulin, but also remove and degrade less insulin. This phenomenon has the double benefit of sparing insulin while prolonging and potentiating its effects, probably due to the lower expression of IDE in the liver, possibly with long-term consequences.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.

[evaluation Of Data On Live Birth Certificates From The Information System On Live Births (sinasc) In Campinas, São Paulo, 2009].

To assess the completeness and reliability of the Information System on Live Births (Sinasc) data. A cross-sectional analysis of the reliability and completeness of Sinasc's data was performed using a sample of Live Birth Certificate (LBC) from 2009, related to births from Campinas, Southeast Brazil. For data analysis, hospitals were grouped according to category of service (Unified National Health System, private or both), 600 LBCs were randomly selected and the data were collected in LBC-copies through mothers and newborns' hospital records and by telephone interviews. The completeness of LBCs was evaluated, calculating the percentage of blank fields, and the LBCs agreement comparing the originals with the copies was evaluated by Kappa and intraclass correlation coefficients. The percentage of completeness of LBCs ranged from 99.8%-100%. For the most items, the agreement was excellent. However, the agreement was acceptable for marital status, maternal education and newborn infants' race/color, low for prenatal visits and presence of birth defects, and very low for the number of deceased children. The results showed that the municipality Sinasc is reliable for most of the studied variables. Investments in training of the professionals are suggested in an attempt to improve system capacity to support planning and implementation of health activities for the benefit of maternal and child population.

Digital subtraction radiographic analysis of the combination of bioabsorbable membrane and bovine morphogenetic protein pool in human periodontal infrabony defects

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the bone density gain and its relationship with the periodontal clinical parameters in a case series of a regenerative therapy procedure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using a split-mouth study design, 10 pairs of infrabony defects from 15 patients were treated with a pool of bovine bone morphogenetic proteins associated with collagen membrane (test sites) or collagen membrane only (control sites). The periodontal healing was clinically and radiographically monitored for six months. Standardized pre-surgical and 6-month postoperative radiographs were digitized for digital subtraction analysis, which showed relative bone density gain in both groups of 0.034 ± 0.423 and 0.105 ± 0.423 in the test and control group, respectively (p>0.05). RESULTS: As regards the area size of bone density change, the influence of the therapy was detected in 2.5 mm² in the test group and 2 mm² in the control group (p>0.05). Additionally, no correlation was observed between the favorable clinical results and the bone density gain measured by digital subtraction radiography (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that the clinical benefit of the regenerative therapy observed did not come with significant bone density gains. Long-term evaluation may lead to a different conclusions.

Engineering interactions for quasiperfect transfer of polariton states through nonideal bosonic networks of distinct topologies

We present a scheme for quasiperfect transfer of polariton states from a sender to a spatially separated receiver, both composed of high-quality cavities filled by atomic samples. The sender and the receiver are connected by a nonideal transmission channel -the data bus- modelled by a network of lossy empty cavities. In particular, we analyze the influence of a large class of data-bus topologies on the fidelity and transfer time of the polariton state. Moreover, we also assume dispersive couplings between the polariton fields and the data-bus normal modes in order to achieve a tunneling-like state transfer. Such a tunneling-transfer mechanism, by which the excitation energy of the polariton effectively does not populate the data-bus cavities, is capable of attenuating appreciably the dissipative effects of the data-bus cavities. After deriving a Hamiltonian for the effective coupling between the sender and the receiver, we show that the decay rate of the fidelity is proportional to a cooperativity parameter that weighs the cost of the dissipation rate against the benefit of the effective coupling strength. The increase of the fidelity of the transfer process can be achieved at the expense of longer transfer times. We also show that the dependence of both the fidelity and the transfer time on the network topology is analyzed in detail for distinct regimes of parameters. It follows that the data-bus topology can be explored to control the time of the state-transfer process.

PKC beta II inhibition attenuates myocardial infarction induced heart failure and is associated with a reduction of fibrosis and pro-inflammatory responses

Protein kinase C beta II (PKC beta II) levels increase in the myocardium of patients with end-stage heart failure (HF). Also targeted overexpression of PKC beta II in the myocardium of mice leads to dilated cardiomyopathy associated with inflammation, fibrosis and myocardial dysfunction. These reports suggest a deleterious role of PKC beta II in HF development. Using a post-myocardial infarction (MI) model of HF in rats, we determined the benefit of chronic inhibition of PKC beta II on the progression of HF over a period of 6 weeks after the onset of symptoms and the cellular basis for these effects. Four weeks after MI, rats with HF signs that were treated for 6 weeks with the PKC beta II selective inhibitor (beta IIV5-3 conjugated to TAT(47-57) carrier peptide) (3 mg/kg/day) showed improved fractional shortening (from 21% to 35%) compared to control (TAT(47-57) carrier peptide alone). Formalin-fixed mid-ventricle tissue sections stained with picrosirius red, haematoxylin and eosin and toluidine blue dyes exhibited a 150% decrease in collagen deposition, a two-fold decrease in inflammation and a 30% reduction in mast cell degranulation, respectively, in rat hearts treated with the selective PKC beta II inhibitor. Further, a 90% decrease in active TGF beta 1 and a significant reduction in SMAD2/3 phosphorylation indicated that the selective inhibition of PKC beta II attenuates cardiac remodelling mediated by the TGF-SMAD signalling pathway. Therefore, sustained selective inhibition of PKC beta II in a post-MI HF rat model improves cardiac function and is associated with inhibition of pathological myocardial remodelling.