How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Climate and vegetation history of western Portugal inferred from Albian near-shore deposits (Gale Formation, Lusitanian Basin)

The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

Treball experimental en mitjans propis: UPF.Ràdio

Aquesta memòria recull el projecte experimental que quatre estudiants del grau en Periodisme de la Universitat Pompeu Fabra han portat a terme al mitjà UPF.Ràdio, durant el curs 2012-2013. Aquesta investigació neix de la voluntat de modernitzar i dinamitzarl’emissora universitària, a partir d’un estudi de camp inicial i del treball pràctic al mitjà. En aquest document s’exposen els objectius executats, les tasques desenvolupades i una autoavaluació final del projecte. Queda com la primera investigació sobre la naturalesa d’UPF.Ràdio i com a base per a ajudar a consolidar un projecte radiofònic solvent en el futur.

Desarrollo de una aplicación informática para la gestión de actividades docentes

Este proyecto consiste en el desarrollo de una aplicación informática que permite gestionar de forma automatizada y consistente los datos requeridos para la actividad docente de un profesor universitario. La aplicación permite gestionar: plan docente, asignaturas, horario docente, calendario de exámenes y proyectos final de carrera. Todas estas opciones tienen las funciones de, agregar, buscar, modificar y eliminar datos. Además tiene otras opciones como calendario docente y webs, cuya finalidad será consultar, de forma directa, páginas web de interés docente. Finalmente, la opción material docente tendrá como finalidad, crear, modificar y eliminar ficheros de diferente formato (word, excel, powerpoint, pdf) asociados a las asignaturas registradas en la aplicación. La aplicación se ha implementado en el sistema operativo Windows en el lenguaje de programación Java. Los datos utilizados se almacenan en la base de datos MySql Workbench. Para las validaciones de entrada de datos se ha utilizado JavaScript y JQuery. El diseño de la interfaz se ha llevado a cabo con Java Server Pages, Html, Css y framework Struts.

Establishment success and resulting fitness consequences for vole dispersers

Dispersal is one of the most important, yet least understood phenomena of evolutionary ecology. Triggers and consequences of dispersal are difficult to study in natural populations since dispersers can typically only be identified a posteriori. Therefore, a lot of work on dispersal is either of a theoretical nature or based on anecdotal observation. This is especially true for cryptic species such as small mammals. We conducted an experiment on the common vole, Microtus arvalis, in semi-natural enclosures and investigated the spatial and genetic establishment success of residents and dispersers in their natal and new populations. Our study uses genetic data on the reproductive success of 1255 individuals to measure the fitness trajectories of the residents and dispersing individuals. In agreement with past studies, we found that dispersal was highly male-biased, and was most probably induced by the agonistic encounters with conspecifics, suggesting it could act as an inbreeding avoidance mechanism. There was low breeding success of dispersers into new populations. Although nearly 26% of identified dispersers reproduced in their natal populations, only seven percent reproduced in the new populations. Settlement appeared to be a pre-requisite for reproduction in both sexes, and animals that did not spatially settle into a new population dispersed again, usually on the same day of immigration. In the event that dispersers reproduced in the new population, they did so at relatively low population densities. We also found age-related differences between the sexes in breeding success, and male dispersers that subsequently established in the new population were young individuals that had not reproduced in their natal population, whereas successful females had already reproduced in their natal population. In conclusion, with our detailed field data on establishment and substantial parentage assignments to understand breeding success, we were able to gain an insight into the fitness of dispersers, and how the two sexes optimise their fitness. Taken together, our results help to further understand the relative advantages and costs of dispersal in the common vole.

Multimodal Investment Analysis Methodology, Phase One: The Conceptual Model, 1998

The purpose of this project is to develop an investment analysis model that integrates the capabilities of four types of analysis for use in evaluating interurban transportation system improvements. The project will also explore the use of new data warehousing and mining techniques to design the types of databases required for supporting such a comprehensive transportation model. The project consists of four phases. The first phase, which is documented in this report, involves development of the conceptual foundation for the model. Prior research is reviewed in Chapter 1, which is composed of three major sections providing demand modeling background information for passenger transportation, transportation of freight (manufactured products and supplies), and transportation of natural resources and agricultural commodities. Material from the literature on geographic information systems makes up Chapter 2. Database models for the national and regional economies and for the transportation and logistics network are conceptualized in Chapter 3. Demand forecasting of transportation service requirements is introduced in Chapter 4, with separate sections for passenger transportation, freight transportation, and transportation of natural resources and commodities. Characteristics and capacities of the different modes, modal choices, and route assignments are discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a general discussion of the economic impacts and feedback of multimodal transportation activities and facilities.

Matemaattiset opetusympäristöt ja matemaattisen käyttöliittymän käytettävyys

Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on kuvata Lappeenrannan teknillisessä yliopistossa kehitetyn luentojen tueksi tarkoitetun Matematiikan virtuaalimateriaalin hallintaympäristön kehityskaari. Järjestelmä luotiin parantamaanopetuksen laatua siten, että sen avulla opiskelijat saavat helposti käyttöönsä suomenkielistä, laadukkaalla kirjoitusjäljellä olevaa opiskelumateriaalia 24 tuntia vuorokaudessa. Lisäksi järjestelmän tavoitteena oli helpottaa opettajien työtaakkaa siten, että he pystyvät luomaan viikoittaiset harjoitustehtäväpaketit sekä tentit suoraan tietokannasta. Järjestelmän kehitys alkoi vuonna 2001, jonka jälkeen sitä on jatkuvasti muokattu opettajien ja opiskelijoiden avustuksella yhäkäyttäjäystävällisempään suuntaan. Testausmenetelminä on käytetty asiantuntijatestausta, lomakkeita ja varsinaista loppukäyttäjätestausta. Kehityksen tuloksenaon saatu järjestelmä, joka voidaan ottaa käyttöön kaikessa matematiikan perusopetuksessa.

Ammattiosaamisennäytöt ja työssäoppiminen toisen asteen koulutuksessa

Opetusviranomaiset ovat pohtineet keinoja nuorisoasteen (toisen asteen) ammatillisen koulutuksen laadun varmistamiseksi, kehittämiseksi ja kilpailukyvyn parantamiseksi. Yhtenä tällaisena keinona on tuotettu työssä oppimisjärjestelmä ja siihen on liitetty elokuusta 2006 alkaen ammattiosaamisen näytöt. Näyttöjen perustana on laki ammatillisesta koulutuksesta. Opiskelija osoittaa ammattiosaamistaan näytöissä opiskelusuunnitelmaan sisältyviä työtehtäviä tehden. Kolmivuotiseen (120 ov) perustutkinnon koulutukseen sisältyy työssäoppimista vähintään 20 ov. Näytöt pyritään järjestämään työssäoppimisen yhteydesssä opiskelijoiden työssäoppimispaikoilla. Arvioinnin ja palautteen osuus on tärkeä ja siinä mukana opiskelija, työpaikkaohjaaja ja opettaja. Tässä työssä on tuotettu yleinen toimintamalli näyttöjen toteuttamiseksityössäoppimisen yhteydessä. Toisena on tuotettu alueellinen vastaava toimintamalli oppilaitostasolle kone- ja metallialalle. Mallissa on huomioitu alueen teollisuuden erityispiirteet. Edellisten lisäksi on myös tuotettu toimintamalli oppilaitoskohtaisesta soveltamisesta näyttöjen toteuttamiseen kone- ja metallialalla yksilötasolle saakka. Järjestelmän käyttöönotto eri toimijoiden kesken on käynnistynyt. Sen onnistunut toteutus vaatii jatkuvaa innovatiivisuutta ja taloudellisia resursseja jokaisen siihen osallistuvan tahon osalta. Tällöin on saavutettavissa uudistuksen tarkoitus: koulutuksen laadun konkreettinen varmistaminen ja kehittäminen.

The transcriptional network activated by Cln3 cyclin at the G1-to-S transition of the yeast cell cycle

Background: The G1-to-S transition of the cell cycle in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae involves an extensive transcriptional program driven by transcription factors SBF (Swi4-Swi6) and MBF (Mbp1-Swi6). Activation of these factors ultimately depends on the G1 cyclin Cln3. Results: To determine the transcriptional targets of Cln3 and their dependence on SBF or MBF, we first have used DNA microarrays to interrogate gene expression upon Cln3 overexpression in synchronized cultures of strains lacking components of SBF and/or MBF. Secondly, we have integrated this expression dataset together with other heterogeneous data sources into a single probabilistic model based on Bayesian statistics. Our analysis has produced more than 200 transcription factor-target assignments, validated by ChIP assays and by functional enrichment. Our predictions show higher internal coherence and predictive power than previous classifications. Our results support a model whereby SBF and MBF may be differentially activated by Cln3. Conclusions: Integration of heterogeneous genome-wide datasets is key to building accurate transcriptional networks. By such integration, we provide here a reliable transcriptional network at the G1-to-S transition in the budding yeast cell cycle. Our results suggest that to improve the reliability of predictions we need to feed our models with more informative experimental data.

Protein oligomers studied by solid-state NMR the case of the full-length nucleoid-associated protein histone-like nucleoid structuring protein

Members of the histone-like nucleoid structuring protein (H-NS) family play roles both as architectural proteins and as modulators of gene expression in Gram-negative bacteria. The H-NS protein participates in modulatory processes that respond to environmental changes in osmolarity, pH, or temperature. H-NS oligomerization is essential for its activity. Structural models of different truncated forms are available. However, high-resolution structural details of full-length H-NS and its DNA-bound state have largely remained elusive. We report on progress in characterizing the biologically active H-NS oligomers with solid-state NMR. We compared uniformly ((13)C,(15)N)-labeled ssNMR preparations of the isolated N-terminal region (H-NS 1-47) and full-length H-NS (H-NS 1-137). In both cases, we obtained ssNMR spectra of good quality and characteristic of well-folded proteins. Analysis of the results of 2D and 3D (13)C-(13)C and (15)N-(13)C correlation experiments conducted at high magnetic field led to assignments of residues located in different topological regions of the free full-length H-NS. These findings confirm that the structure of the N-terminal dimerization domain is conserved in the oligomeric full-length protein. Small changes in the dimerization interface suggested by localized chemical shift variations between solution and solid-state spectra may be relevant for DNA recoginition.

Reconstructing native American migrations from whole-genome and whole-exome data.

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is 48% in MXL, 25% in CLM, and 13% in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern American ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas 16 thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split 12.2kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR 11.7kya. The model also features effective populations of 62,000 in Mexico, 8,700 in Colombia, and 1,900 in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations.

Study of D J meson decays to D +π-, D 0π+ and D ∗+π- final states in pp collisions

A study of D +π−, D 0π+ and D ∗+π− final states is performed using pp collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1, collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the LHCb detector. The D 1(2420)0 resonance is observed in the D ∗+π− final state and the D∗2(2460) resonance is observed in the D +π−, D 0π+ and D ∗+π− final states. For both resonances, their properties and spin-parity assignments are obtained. In addition, two natural parity and two unnatural parity resonances are observed in the mass region between 2500 and 2800 MeV. Further structures in the region around 3000 MeV are observed in all the D ∗+π−, D +π− and D 0π+ final states.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Vuokratyöntekijän työsuhdeturva: Sääntelyn haasteita ja tulkintoja

Tutkimus pyrkii selvittämään, vastaako vuokratyöntekijän työsuhdeturva työlainsäädännön tavoitteita ja niiden taustalla vaikuttavaa työntekijän suojelun periaatetta. Lainsäädännössä vuokratyöntekijän työsuhdeturvan kohdalla olevat keskeisimmät aukkokohdat ja tulkinnat esitetään juridisen argumentaation avulla. Tilanteen tekee ongelmalliseksi erityisesti se, että nykylainsäädäntö ei varsinaisesti estä käyttämästä vuokratyössä toistuvia, kunkin toimeksiannon mittaisia määräaikaisuuksia. Tulokset osoittavat, että sekä kollektiivinen että individuaaliperusteinen irtisanomissuoja on käytännössä heikko. Lisäksi työsuhdeturvan ja joustavuuden tasapaino työmarkkinoilla näyttää olevan melko vaikea yhtälö ratkaistavaksi. Eräänä mahdollisena ratkaisuna tutkimuksen lopussa esitetään Ruotsissa käytössä oleva malli, jossa työntekijät ovat toistaiseksi voimassa olevissa työsuhteissa, ja saavat palkkaa myös toimeksiantojen väliseltä ajalta. Järjestelmään liittyy vahvasti myös alan järjestäytyminen ja eettisten pelisääntöjen määritteleminen liittojen välisin sopimuksin. Tällä tavalla vuokratyöntekijän työsuhdeturvaan liittyvät ongelmakohdat ratkaistaan, mutta toisaalta vuokratyön työllisyyttä ja kilpailukykyä tukeva vaikutus menetetään. Vaihtoehtoisina keinoina on esitetty lukuisia kevyempiä keinoja yksittäisten ongelmakohtien ratkaisuksi.