Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Public health and clinical dilemmas resulting from imprecise vitamin D tests

Objective: To determine whether there are clinical and public health dilemmas resulting from the reproducibility of routine vitamin D assays. Methods: Blinded agreement studies were conducted in eight clinical laboratories using two commonly used assays to measure serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels in Australasia and Canada (DiaSorin Radioimmunoassay (RIA) and DiaSorin LIAISON® one). Results: Only one laboratory measured 25(OH)D with excellent precision. Replicate 25(OH)D measurements varied by up to 97% and 15% of paired results differed by more than 50%. Thirteen percent of subjects received one result indicating insufficiency [25-50 nmol/l] and another suggesting adequacy [>50 nmol/l]). Agreement ranged from poor to excellent for laboratories using the manual RIA, while the precision of the semi-automated Liaison® system was consistently poor. Conclusions: Recent interest in the relevance of vitamin D to human health has increased demand for 25(OH)D testing and associated costs. Our results suggest clinicians and public health authorities are making decisions about treatment or changes to public health policy based on imprecise data. Clinicians, researchers and policy makers should be made aware of the imprecision of current 25(OH)D testing so that they exercise caution when using these assays for clinical practice, and when interpreting the findings of epidemiological studies based on vitamin D levels measured using these assays. Development of a rapid, reproducible, accurate and robust assay should be a priority due to interest in populationbased screening programs and research to inform public health policy about the amount of sun exposure required for human health. In the interim, 25(OH)D results should routinely include a statement of measurement uncertainty.

Identification of alcohol involvement in injury-related hospitalisations using routine data compared to medical record review

Objective: To quantify the extent to which alcohol related injuries are adequately identified in hospitalisation data using ICD-10-AM codes indicative of alcohol involvement. Method: A random sample of 4373 injury-related hospital separations from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2004 were obtained from a stratified random sample of 50 hospitals across 4 states in Australia. From this sample, cases were identified as involving alcohol if they contained an ICD-10-AM diagnosis or external cause code referring to alcohol, or if the text description extracted from the medical records mentioned alcohol involvement. Results: Overall, identification of alcohol involvement using ICD codes detected 38% of the alcohol-related sample, whilst almost 94% of alcohol-related cases were identified through a search of the text extracted from the medical records. The resultant estimate of alcohol involvement in injury-related hospitalisations in this sample was 10%. Emergency department records were the most likely to identify whether the injury was alcohol-related with almost three-quarters of alcohol-related cases mentioning alcohol in the text abstracted from these records. Conclusions and Implications: The current best estimates of the frequency of hospital admissions where alcohol is involved prior to the injury underestimate the burden by around 62%. This is a substantial underestimate that has major implications for public policy, and highlights the need for further work on improving the quality and completeness of routine administrative data sources for identification of alcohol-related injuries.

Experimental tests on structural members fabricated from high strength steel materials

Typical high strength steels (HSS) have exceptional high strengths with improved weldability making the material attractive in modern steel constructions. However, due to lack of understanding, most of the current steel design standards are limited to conventional low strength steels (LSS, i.e. fy ≤ 450 MPa). This paper presents the details of full-scale experimental tests on short beams fabricated from BISPLATE80 HSS materials (nominal fy = 690 MPa). The various slenderness ratios of the plate elements in the test specimens were chosen in the range near the current yield limit (AS4100-1998, etc.). The experimental studies presented in this paper have produced a better understanding of the structural behaviour of HSS members subjected to local instabilities. Comparisons have also presented in the paper regarding to the design predictions from the current steel standards (AS4100-1998). This study has enabled to provide a series of proposals for proper assessment of plate slenderness limits for structural members made of representative HSS materials. This research work also enables the inclusion of further versions in the steel design specifications for typical HSS materials to be used in buildings and bridges. This paper also presents a distribution model of residual stresses in the longitudinal direction for typical HSS I-sections.

Stigma reported by nurses related to those experiencing drug and alcohol dependency : a phemonenological study

Alcohol and drug dependency is a widespread health and social issue encountered by registered nurses in contemporary practice. A study aiming to describe the experiences of registered nurses working in an alcohol and drug unit in South East Queensland was implemented. Data were analysed via Giorgi’s phenomenological method and an unexpected but significant finding highlighted the frustration felt by registered nurses regarding experiences of stigma they identified in their daily work encounters. Secondary analysis confirmed the phenomenon of stigma with three themes: (1) inappropriate judgement; (2) advocacy; and (3) education. Resultantly, findings concluded registered nurses’ working in this field need to become advocates for their clients, ensuring professional conduct is upheld at all times. This paper recommends that stigma could be addressed by incorporating alcohol and other drug dependency subjects and clinical placements into the curriculum of the Bachelor of Nursing degrees, and in-services for all practising registered nurses.

The cost effectiveness of Naltrexone added to cognitive-behavioral therapy in the treatment of alcohol dependence

he purpose of this study was to evaluate the comparative cost of treating alcohol dependence with either cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) alone or CBT combined with naltrexone (CBT+naltrexone). Two hundred ninety-eight outpatients dependent on alcohol who were consecutively treated for alcohol dependence participated in this study. One hundred seven (36%) patients received adjunctive pharmacotherapy (CBT+naltrexone). The Drug Abuse Treatment Cost Analysis Program was used to estimate treatment costs. Adjunctive pharmacotherapy (CBT+naltrexone) introduced an additional treatment cost and was 54% more expensive than CBT alone. When treatment abstinence rates (36.1% CBT; 62.6% CBT+naltrexone) were applied to cost effectiveness ratios, CBT+naltrexone demonstrated an advantage over CBT alone. There were no differences between groups on a preference-based health measure (SF-6D). In this treatment center, to achieve 100 abstainers over a 12-week program, 280 patients require CBT compared with 160 CBT+naltrexone. The dominant choice was CBT+naltrexone based on modest economic advantages and significant efficiencies in the numbers needed to treat.

A psychometric comparison of the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20) and the Observer Alexithymia Scale (OAS) in an alcohol-dependent sample

Alexithymia is characterised by deficits in emotional insight and self reflection, that impact on the efficacy of psychological treatments. Given the high prevalence of alexithymia in Alcohol Use Disorders, valid assessment tools are critical. The majority of research on the relationship between alexithymia and alcohol-dependence has employed the self-administered Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). The Observer Alexithymia Scale (OAS) has also been recommended. The aim of the present study was to assess the validity and reliability of the OAS and the TAS-20 in an alcohol-dependent sample. Two hundred and ten alcohol-dependent participants in an outpatient Cognitive Behavioral Treatment program were administered the TAS-20 at assessment and upon treatment completion at 12 weeks. Clinical psychologists provided observer assessment data for a subsample of 159 patients. The findings confirmed acceptable internal consistency, test-retest reliability and scale homogeneity for both the OAS and TAS-20, except for the low internal consistency of the TAS-20 EOT scale. The TAS-20 was more strongly associated with alcohol problems than the OAS.

Negative mood regulation expectancies, frontal lobe related behaviors and alcohol use

Negative mood regulation (NMR) expectancies have been linked to substance problems in previous research, but the neurobiological correlates of NMR are unknown. In the present study, NMR was examined in relation to self-report indices of frontal lobe functioning, mood and alcohol use in 166 volunteers of both genders who ranged in age from 17 to 43 years. Contrary to expectations based on previous findings in addicts and problem drinkers, scores on the NMR scale did not differ between Low Risk and High Risk drinkers as defined by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). However, NMR scores were significantly negatively correlated with all three indices of frontal lobe dysfunction on the Frontal Systems Behavior Scale (FrSBe) Self-Rating Form as well as with all three indices of negative mood on the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), which in turn were all positively correlated with FrSBe. Path analyses indicated that NMR partially mediated the direct effects of frontal lobe dysfunction (as indexed by FrSBe) on DASS Stress and DASS Depression. Further, the High Risk drinkers scored significantly higher on the Disinhibition and Executive Dysfunction indices of the FrSBe than did Low Risk drinkers. Results are consistent with the notion that NMR is a frontal lobe function.

Full scale fire tests of a new light gauge steel floor-ceiling system

Cold-formed steel members can be assembled in various combinations to provide cost-efficient and safe light gauge floor systems for buildings. Such Light gauge Steel Framing (LSF) systems are widely accepted in industrial and commercial building construction. An example application is in floor-ceiling systems. Light gauge steel floor-ceiling systems must be designed to serve as fire compartment boundaries and provide adequate fire resistance. Fire-rated floor-ceiling assemblies formed with new materials and construction methodologies have been increasingly used in buildings. However, limited research has been undertaken in the past and hence a thorough understanding of their fire resistance behaviour is not available. Recently a new composite floor-ceiling system has been developed to provide higher fire rating under standard fire conditions. But its increased fire rating could not be determined using the currently available design methods. Therefore a research project was carried out to investigate its structural and fire resistance behaviour under standard fire conditions. In this research project full scale experimental tests of the new LSF floor system based on a composite ceiling unit were undertaken using a gas furnace at the Queensland University of Technology. Both the conventional and the new steel floor-ceiling systems were tested under structural and fire loads. Full scale fire tests provided a good understanding of the fire behaviour of the LSF floor-ceiling systems and confirmed the superior performance of the new composite system. This paper presents the details of this research into the structural and fire behaviour of light gauge steel floor systems protected by the new composite panel, and the results.

A prospective study of personality features predictive of early adolescent alcohol misuse

Personality factors implicated in alcohol misuse have been extensively investigated in adult populations. Fewer studies have clarified the robustness of personality dimensions in predicting early onset alcohol misuse in adolescence. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive utility of two prominent models of personality (Cloninger, 1987; Eysenck & Eysenck, 1975) in emergent alcohol misuse in adolescence. One hundred and 92 secondary school students (mean age = 13.8 years, SD = 0.5) were administered measures of personality (Revised Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire – abbreviated; Temperament scale of Junior Temperament and Character Inventory) and drinking behavior (quantity and frequency of consumption, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) at Time 1. At 12-month follow-up, 170 students (88.5%) were retained. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed the dimensions of psychoticism, extraversion, and Novelty-Seeking to be the most powerful predictors of future alcohol misuse in adolescents. Results provide support for the etiological relevance of these dimensions in the development of early onset alcohol misuse. Findings can be used to develop early intervention programs that target personality risk factors for alcohol misuse in high-risk youth.

Performance tests for visual servo control systems, with application to partitioned approaches to visual servo control

Visual servoing has been a viable method of robot manipulator control for more than a decade. Initial developments involved positionbased visual servoing (PBVS), in which the control signal exists in Cartesian space. The younger method, image-based visual servoing (IBVS), has seen considerable development in recent years. PBVS and IBVS offer tradeoffs in performance, and neither can solve all tasks that may confront a robot. In response to these issues, several methods have been devised that partition the control scheme, allowing some motions to be performed in the manner of a PBVS system, while the remaining motions are performed using an IBVS approach. To date, there has been little research that explores the relative strengths and weaknesses of these methods. In this paper we present such an evaluation. We have chosen three recent visual servo approaches for evaluation in addition to the traditional PBVS and IBVS approaches. We posit a set of performance metrics that measure quantitatively the performance of a visual servo controller for a specific task. We then evaluate each of the candidate visual servo methods for four canonical tasks with simulations and with experiments in a robotic work cell.

The Validity of the Brief Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (bMAST) as a Problem Drinking Severity Measure

Objective: The Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST) is a 10-item test derived from the 25-item Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST). It is widely used in the assessment of alcohol dependence. In the absence of previous validation studies, the principal aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the bMAST as a measure of the severity of problem drinking. Method: There were 6,594 patients (4,854 men, 1,740 women) who had been referred for alcohol-use disorders to a hospital alcohol and drug service who voluntarily participated in this study. Results: An exploratory factor analysis defined a two-factor solution, consisting of Perception of Current Drinking and Drinking Consequences factors. Structural equation modeling confirmed that the fit of a nine-item, two-factor model was superior to the original one-factor model. Concurrent validity was assessed through simultaneous administration of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations with alcohol consumption and clinically assessed features of alcohol dependence. The two-factor bMAST model showed moderate correlations with the AUDIT. The two-factor bMAST and AUDIT were similarly associated with quantity of alcohol consumption and clinically assessed dependence severity features. No differences were observed between the existing weighted scoring system and the proposed simple scoring system. Conclusions: In this study, both the existing bMAST total score and the two-factor model identified were as effective as the AUDIT in assessing problem drinking severity. There are additional advantages of employing the two-factor bMAST in the assessment and treatment planning of patients seeking treatment for alcohol-use disorders. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs 68: 771-779,2007)

A confirmatory factor analysis of the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20) in an alcohol-dependent sample

Confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to evaluate the factorial validity of the Toronto Alexithymia Scale in an alcohol-dependent sample. Several factor models were examined, but all models were rejected given their poor fit. A revision of the TAS-20 in alcohol-dependent populations may be needed.

Safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs in the construction industry : a research methodology

Anecdotal evidence from the infrastructure and building sectors highlights issues of drugs and alcohol and its association with safety risk on construction sites. Operating machinery and mobile equipment, proximity to live traffic together with congested sites, electrical equipment and operating at heights conspire to accentuate the potential adverse impact of drugs and alcohol in the workplace. While most Australian jurisdictions have identified this as a critical safety issue, information is limited regarding the prevalence of alcohol and other drugs in the workplace and there is limited evidential guidance regarding how to effectively and efficiently address such an issue. No known study has scientifically evaluated the relationship between the use of drugs and alcohol and safety impacts in construction, and there has been only limited adoption of nationally coordinated strategies, supported by employers and employees to render it socially unacceptable to arrive at a construction workplace with impaired judgement from drugs and alcohol. A nationally consistent collaborative approach across the construction workforce - involving employers and employees; clients; unions; contractors and sub-contractors is required to engender a cultural change in the construction workforce – in a similar manner to the on-going initiative in securing a cultural change to drink-driving in our society where peer intervention and support is encouraged. This study has four key objectives. Firstly, using the standard World Health Organisation AUDIT, a national qualitative and quantitative assessment of the use of drugs and alcohol will be carried out. This will build upon similar studies carried out in the Australian energy and mining sectors. Secondly, the development of an appropriate industry policy will adopt a non-punitive and rehabilitative approach developed in consultation with employers and employees across the infrastructure and building sectors, with the aim it be adopted nationally for adoption at the construction workplace. Thirdly, an industry-specific cultural change management program will be developed through a nationally collaborative approach to reducing the risk of impaired performance on construction sites and increasing workers’ commitment to drugs and alcohol safety. Finally, an implementation plan will be developed from data gathered from both managers and construction employees. Such an approach stands to benefit not only occupational health and safety, through a greater understanding of the safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs at work, but also alcohol and drug use as a wider community health issue. This paper will provide an overview of the background and significance of the study as well as outlining the proposed methodology that will be used to evaluate the safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs in the construction industry.

Safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs in the construction industry : Preliminary findings

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