Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Functional taxonomy of bacterial hyperstructures.

The levels of organization that exist in bacteria extend from macromolecules to populations. Evidence that there is also a level of organization intermediate between the macromolecule and the bacterial cell is accumulating. This is the level of hyperstructures. Here, we review a variety of spatially extended structures, complexes, and assemblies that might be termed hyperstructures. These include ribosomal or "nucleolar" hyperstructures; transertion hyperstructures; putative phosphotransferase system and glycolytic hyperstructures; chemosignaling and flagellar hyperstructures; DNA repair hyperstructures; cytoskeletal hyperstructures based on EF-Tu, FtsZ, and MreB; and cell cycle hyperstructures responsible for DNA replication, sequestration of newly replicated origins, segregation, compaction, and division. We propose principles for classifying these hyperstructures and finally illustrate how thinking in terms of hyperstructures may lead to a different vision of the bacterial cell.

Micro- and nanostructured polymer substrates for biomedical applications

Polymer implants are interesting alternatives to the contemporary load-bearing implants made from metals. Polyetheretherketone (PEEK), a well-established biomaterial for example, is not only iso-elastic to bone but also permits investigating the surrounding soft tissues using magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography, which is particularly important for cancer patients. The commercially available PEEK bone implants, however, require costly coatings, which restricts their usage. As an alternative to coatings, plasma activation can be applied. The present paper shows the plasma-induced preparation of nanostructures on polymer films and on injection-molded micro-cantilever arrays and the associated chemical modifications of the surface. In vitro cell experiments indicate the suitability of the activation process. In addition, we show that microstructures such as micro-grooves 1 μm deep and 20 μm wide cause cell alignment. The combination of micro-injection molding, simultaneous microstructuring using inserts/bioreplica and plasma treatments permits the preparation of polymer implants with nature-analogue, anisotropic micro- and nanostructures.

History of Medicine Schedule 2010-2011

William Osler (1849-1919): America’s Most Famous Physician (Robert E. Rakel) The Assassination of John F. Kennedy: A Neurosurgeon’s Eyewitness Account of the Medical Aspect of the Events of November 22, 1963 (Robert G. Grossman) Making Cancer History: Disease and Discovery at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (James S. Olson) The History of Pathology as a Biological Science and Medical Specialty (L. Maximillian Buja) “Medicine in the Mid-19th Century America” (Student Essay Contest Winner) (David Hunter) The Achievements and Enduring Relevance of Rudolph Virchow (Nathan Grohmann) Medicine: Perspectives in History and Art (Robert E. Greenspan) What Every Physician Should Know: Lessons from the Past (Robert E. Greenspan) Medicine in Ancient Mesopotamia (Sajid Haque) The History of Texas Children’s Hospital (B. Lee Ligon) Visualizing Disease: Motion Pictures in the History of Medical Education (Kirsten Ostherr)

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

An Early-Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events Based on Fusion of Adaptive Prediction Models

Introduction: Early warning of future hypoglycemic and hyperglycemic events can improve the safety of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. The aim of this study is to design and evaluate a hypoglycemia / hyperglycemia early warning system (EWS) for T1DM patients under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy. Methods: The EWS is based on the combination of data-driven online adaptive prediction models and a warning algorithm. Three modeling approaches have been investigated: (i) autoregressive (ARX) models, (ii) auto-regressive with an output correction module (cARX) models, and (iii) recurrent neural network (RNN) models. The warning algorithm performs postprocessing of the models′ outputs and issues alerts if upcoming hypoglycemic/hyperglycemic events are detected. Fusion of the cARX and RNN models, due to their complementary prediction performances, resulted in the hybrid autoregressive with an output correction module/recurrent neural network (cARN)-based EWS. Results: The EWS was evaluated on 23 T1DM patients under SAP therapy. The ARX-based system achieved hypoglycemic (hyperglycemic) event prediction with median values of accuracy of 100.0% (100.0%), detection time of 10.0 (8.0) min, and daily false alarms of 0.7 (0.5). The respective values for the cARX-based system were 100.0% (100.0%), 17.5 (14.8) min, and 1.5 (1.3) and, for the RNN-based system, were 100.0% (92.0%), 8.4 (7.0) min, and 0.1 (0.2). The hybrid cARN-based EWS presented outperforming results with 100.0% (100.0%) prediction accuracy, detection 16.7 (14.7) min in advance, and 0.8 (0.8) daily false alarms. Conclusion: Combined use of cARX and RNN models for the development of an EWS outperformed the single use of each model, achieving accurate and prompt event prediction with few false alarms, thus providing increased safety and comfort.

Tyrosine kinase receptor B (TrkB) expression in colorectal cancers highlights anoikis resistance as a survival mechanism of tumour budding cells.

AIMS Tumour buds in colorectal cancer represent an aggressive subgroup of non-proliferating and non-apoptotic tumour cells. We hypothesize that the survival of tumour buds is dependent upon anoikis resistance. The role of tyrosine kinase receptor B (TrkB), a promoter of epithelial-mesenchymal transition and anoikis resistance, in facilitating budding was investigated. METHODS AND RESULTS Tyrosine kinase receptor B immunohistochemistry was performed on a multiple-punch tissue microarray of 211 colorectal cancer resections. Membranous/cytoplasmic and nuclear expression was evaluated in tumour and buds. Tumour budding was assessed on corresponding whole tissue slides. Relationship to Ki-67 and caspase-3 was investigated. Analysis of Kirsten Ras (KRAS), proto-oncogene B-RAF (BRAF) and cytosine-phosphate-guanosine island methylator phenotype (CIMP) was performed. Membranous/cytoplasmic and nuclear TrkB were strongly, inversely correlated (P < 0.0001; r = -0.41). Membranous/cytoplasmic TrkB was overexpressed in buds compared to the main tumour body (P < 0.0001), associated with larger tumours (P = 0.0236), high-grade budding (P = 0.0011) and KRAS mutation (P = 0.0008). Nuclear TrkB was absent in buds (P <0.0001) and in high-grade budding cancers (P =0.0073). Among patients with membranous/cytoplasmic TrkB-positive buds, high tumour membranous/cytoplasmic TrkB expression was a significant, independent adverse prognostic factor [P = 0.033; 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-3.05]. Inverse correlations between membranous/cytoplasmic TrkB and Ki-67 (r = -0.41; P < 0.0001) and caspase-3 (r =-0.19; P < 0.05) were observed. CONCLUSIONS Membranous/cytoplasmic TrkB may promote an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-like phenotype with high-grade budding and maintain viability of buds themselves.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

BrainCheck - a very brief tool to detect incipient cognitive decline: optimized case-finding combining patient- and informant-based data.

INTRODUCTION Optimal identification of subtle cognitive impairment in the primary care setting requires a very brief tool combining (a) patients' subjective impairments, (b) cognitive testing, and (c) information from informants. The present study developed a new, very quick and easily administered case-finding tool combining these assessments ('BrainCheck') and tested the feasibility and validity of this instrument in two independent studies. METHODS We developed a case-finding tool comprised of patient-directed (a) questions about memory and depression and (b) clock drawing, and (c) the informant-directed 7-item version of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Feasibility study: 52 general practitioners rated the feasibility and acceptance of the patient-directed tool. Validation study: An independent group of 288 Memory Clinic patients (mean ± SD age = 76.6 ± 7.9, education = 12.0 ± 2.6; 53.8% female) with diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (n = 80), probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 185), or major depression (n = 23) and 126 demographically matched, cognitively healthy volunteer participants (age = 75.2 ± 8.8, education = 12.5 ± 2.7; 40% female) partook. All patient and healthy control participants were administered the patient-directed tool, and informants of 113 patient and 70 healthy control participants completed the very short IQCODE. RESULTS Feasibility study: General practitioners rated the patient-directed tool as highly feasible and acceptable. Validation study: A Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated an algorithm to categorize patient-directed data which resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 81.2% (sensitivity = 83.0%, specificity = 79.4%). Critically, the CCR of the combined patient- and informant-directed instruments (BrainCheck) reached nearly 90% (that is 89.4%; sensitivity = 97.4%, specificity = 81.6%). CONCLUSION A new and very brief instrument for general practitioners, 'BrainCheck', combined three sources of information deemed critical for effective case-finding (that is, patients' subject impairments, cognitive testing, informant information) and resulted in a nearly 90% CCR. Thus, it provides a very efficient and valid tool to aid general practitioners in deciding whether patients with suspected cognitive impairments should be further evaluated or not ('watchful waiting').

Wie klingt reformiert? Arbeiten zu Liturgie und Musik. Gesammelte Aufsätze von Andreas Marti

Die reformierte Kirche gilt weithin als kunst- und musikfeindlich, obschon sie eine reiche musikalische Geschichte und eine dynamische musikalische Gegenwart hat. Diese lässt sich nicht aus einem theologischen Axiom begründen, sondern bedarf der Diskussion. Dabei spielt das von der versammelten Gemeinde gesungene Kirchenlied eine herausragende Rolle. Die in diesem Band vereinigten Aufsätze und Referate von Andreas Marti aus den letzten zwanzig Jahren stellen sich dieser Diskussion aus reformierter Sicht: Dem Kirchenmusiker gelingt es immer wieder, unterschiedliche Perspektiven in eigenständiger und erhellender Weise aufeinander zu beziehen.

Grassland management intensification weakens the associations among the diversities of multiple plant and animal taxa

Land-use intensification is a key driver of biodiversity change. However, little is known about how it alters relationships between the diversities of different taxonomic groups, which are often correlated due to shared environmental drivers and trophic interactions. Using data from 150 grassland sites, we examined how land-use intensification (increased fertilization, higher livestock densities, and increased mowing frequency) altered correlations between the species richness of 15 plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. We found that 54% of pairwise correlations between taxonomic groups were significant and positive among all grasslands, while only one was negative. Higher land-use intensity substantially weakened these correlations (35% decrease in r and 43% fewer significant pairwise correlations at high intensity), a pattern which may emerge as a result of biodiversity declines and the breakdown of specialized relationships in these conditions. Nevertheless, some groups (Coleoptera, Heteroptera, Hymenoptera and Orthoptera) were consistently correlated with multidiversity, an aggregate measure of total biodiversity comprised of the standardized diversities of multiple taxa, at both high and low land-use intensity. The form of intensification was also important; increased fertilization and mowing frequency typically weakened plant–plant and plant–primary consumer correlations, whereas grazing intensification did not. This may reflect decreased habitat heterogeneity under mowing and fertilization and increased habitat heterogeneity under grazing. While these results urge caution in using certain taxonomic groups to monitor impacts of agricultural management on biodiversity, they also suggest that the diversities of some groups are reasonably robust indicators of total biodiversity across a range of conditions. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/10.1890/14-1307.1