Poverty, Educational Attainment and Health Among America’s Children: Current and Future Effects of Population Diversification and Associated Socioeconomic Change

A complex of interrelated factors including minority status, poverty, education, health status, and other factors determine the general welfare of children in America, particularly in heavily diverse states such as Texas. Although racial/ethnic status is clearly only a concomitant factor in that determination it is a factor for which future projections are available and for which the relationships with the other factors in the complex can be assessed. After examining the nature of the interrelationships between these factors we utilize direct standardization techniques to examine how the future diversification of the United States and Texas will affect the number of children in poverty, the educational status of the householders in households in which children in poverty live and the health status of children in 2040 assuming that the current relationships between minority status and these socioeconomic factors continue into the future. In the results of the analyses, data are compared with the total population of the United States and Texas in 2040 assumed in the first simulation scenario, to have the race/ethnicity characteristics of 2008 and in the second those projected for 2040 by the U.S. Census Bureau for the nation and by the Texas State Data Center for Texas in 2040. The results show that the diversification of the population could increase the number of children in poverty in the United States by nearly 1.8 million more than would occur with the lower levels of diversification evident in 2008. In addition, poverty would become increasingly concentrated among minority children with minority children accounting for 76.2 percent of all children in poverty by 2040 and with Hispanic children accounting for nearly half of the children in poverty by 2040. Results for educational attainment show an increasing concentration of minority children in households with householders with very low levels of education such that by 2040, 85.2 percent of the increase in the number of children in poverty would be in households with a householder with less than a high school level of education. Finally, the results related to several health status factors show that children in poverty will have a higher prevalence of nearly all health conditions. For example, the number of children with untreated dental conditions could increase to more than 4 million in the United States and to nearly 500,000 in Texas. The results clearly show that improving the welfare of children in America will require concerted efforts to change the poverty, educational, and health status characteristics associated with minority status and particularly Hispanic status. Failing to do so will lead to a future in which America’s children are increasingly impoverished, more poorly educated, and less healthy and which, as a result, is an America with a more tentative future.

The effects of population density on the spread of disease

The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

Procedure for the identification of population characteristics for targeting intervention services on the basis of outcome-goal priorities: Case management services for the chronic mentally ill

Although the processes involved in rational patient targeting may be obvious for certain services, for others, both the appropriate sub-populations to receive services and the procedures to be used for their identification may be unclear. This project was designed to address several research questions which arise in the attempt to deliver appropriate services to specific populations. The related difficulties are particularly evident for those interventions about which findings regarding effectiveness are conflicting. When an intervention clearly is not beneficial (or is dangerous) to a large, diverse population, consensus regarding withholding the intervention from dissemination can easily be reached. When findings are ambiguous, however, conclusions may be impossible.^ When characteristics of patients likely to benefit from an intervention are not obvious, and when the intervention is not significantly invasive or dangerous, the strategy proposed herein may be used to identify specific characteristics of sub-populations which may benefit from the intervention. The identification of these populations may be used both in further informing decisions regarding distribution of the intervention and for purposes of planning implementation of the intervention by identifying specific target populations for service delivery.^ This project explores a method for identifying such sub-populations through the use of related datasets generated from clinical trials conducted to test the effectiveness of an intervention. The method is specified in detail and tested using the example intervention of case management for outpatient treatment of populations with chronic mental illness. These analyses were applied in order to identify any characteristics which distinguish specific sub-populations who are more likely to benefit from case management service, despite conflicting findings regarding its effectiveness for the aggregate population, as reported in the body of related research. However, in addition to a limited set of characteristics associated with benefit, the findings generated, a larger set of characteristics of patients likely to experience greater improvement without intervention. ^

Parameters of population dynamics and energetics of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996

Population dynamics of abundance and biomass were studied and specific production of population of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi was estimated in the Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996. The ctenophores achieved maximum abundance and biomass in July during period of intensive reproduction. Young specimens (<5 mm) contributed during that period as much as 50-87% to total abundance of population. Annually averaged daily specific growth rate was 0.039. Growth, food consumption, and rate of filtration were measured in a laboratory under two concentrations of food (Acartia clausi and Moina micrura: 60 and 100 specimens per liter, 0.35 and 0.60 mg wet weight/l). Both concentrations sustained growth of animals with dry weight less than 20 mg. However these concentrations were insufficient to sustain growth of larger ctenophores. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores with dry weight <20 mg under favorable food conditions was 0.20-0.30 l/day. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores in the Sevastopol Bay never exceeded 0.093 l/day, mean biomass of fodder zooplankton in the bay being 90 mg/m**3 in terms of wet weight. Hence a conclusion was made that population of M. leidyi in the bay was limited by lack of food.

Design and technical evaluation of an enhanced location-awareness service enabler for spatial disorientation management of elderly with mild cognitive impairment

The progressive ageing of population has turned the mild cognitive impairment (MCI) into a prevalent disease suffered by elderly. Consequently, the spatial disorientation has become a significant problem for older people and their caregivers. The ambient-assisted living applications are offering location-based services for empowering elderly to go outside and encouraging a greater independence. Therefore, this paper describes the design and technical evaluation of a location-awareness service enabler aimed at supporting and managing probable wandering situations of a person with MCI. Through the presence capabilities of the IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) architecture, the service will alert patient's contacts if a hazardous situation is detected depending on his location. Furthermore, information about the older person's security areas has been included in the user profile managed by IMS. In doing so, the service enabler introduced contribute to “context-awareness” paradigm allowing the adaptation and personalization of services depending on user's context and specific conditions or preferences.

A genetic record of population isolation in pocket gophers during Holocene climatic change

A long-standing question in Quaternary paleontology is whether climate-induced, population-level phenotypic change is a result of large-scale migration or evolution in isolation. To directly measure genetic variation through time, ancient DNA and morphologic variation was measured over 2,400 years in a Holocene sequence of pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) from Lamar Cave, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming. Ancient specimens and modern samples collected near Lamar Cave share mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences that are absent from adjacent localities, suggesting that the population was isolated for the entire period. In contrast, diastemal length, a morphologic character correlated with body size and nutritional level, changed predictably in response to climatic change. Our results demonstrate that small mammal populations can experience the long-term isolation assumed by many theoretical models of microevolutionary change.

Feasibility and utility of population-level geospatial injury profiling : prospective, national cohort study

The Health Services Research Unit receives funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone. The GEOS study was funded by the North of Scotland Planning Group.

Occupational class and cause specific mortality in middle aged men in 11 European countries: comparison of population based studies

Objectives: To compare countries in western Europe with respect to class differences in mortality from specific causes of death and to assess the contributions these causes make to class differences in total mortality.

Individual differences in predicting occupational success: The effect of population heterogeneity

Using a sample of 339 university graduates from the University of Alicante (Spain) three years after completion of their studies, we studied the relationships between general intelligence (GI), personality traits, emotional intelligence (EI), academic performance, and occupational attainment and compared the results of conventional regression analysis with the results obtained from applying regression mixture models. The results reveal the influence of unobserved population heterogeneity (latent class) on the relationship between predictors and criteria and the improvement in the prediction obtained from applying regression mixture models compared to applying a conventional regression model.

Delineating zones to increase geographical detail in individual response data files: An application to the Spanish 2011 Census of population

Due to confidentiality considerations, the microdata available from the 2011 Spanish Census have been codified at a provincial (NUTS 3) level except when the municipal (LAU 2) population exceeds 20,000 inhabitants (a requirement that is met by less than 5% of all municipalities). For the remainder of the municipalities within a given province, information is only provided for their classification in wide population intervals. These limitations, hampering territorially-focused socio-economic analyses, and more specifically, those related to the labour market, are observed in many other countries. This article proposes and demonstrates an automatic procedure aimed at delineating a set of areas that meet such population requirements and that may be used to re-codify the geographic reference in these cases, thereby increasing the territorial detail at which individual information is available. The method aggregates municipalities into clusters based on the optimisation of a relevant objective function subject to a number of statistical constraints, and is implemented using evolutionary computation techniques. Clusters are defined to fit outer boundaries at the level of labour market areas.