The measurement and decomposition of economy-wide productivity growth:Assessing the accuracy and selecting between different approaches

Productivity at the macro level is a complex concept but also arguably the most appropriate measure of economic welfare. Currently, there is limited research available on the various approaches that can be used to measure it and especially on the relative accuracy of said approaches. This thesis has two main objectives: firstly, to detail some of the most common productivity measurement approaches and assess their accuracy under a number of conditions and secondly, to present an up-to-date application of productivity measurement and provide some guidance on selecting between sometimes conflicting productivity estimates. With regards to the first objective, the thesis provides a discussion on the issues specific to macro-level productivity measurement and on the strengths and weaknesses of the three main types of approaches available, namely index-number approaches (represented by Growth Accounting), non-parametric distance functions (DEA-based Malmquist indices) and parametric production functions (COLS- and SFA-based Malmquist indices). The accuracy of these approaches is assessed through simulation analysis, which provided some interesting findings. Probably the most important were that deterministic approaches are quite accurate even when the data is moderately noisy, that no approaches were accurate when noise was more extensive, that functional form misspecification has a severe negative effect in the accuracy of the parametric approaches and finally that increased volatility in inputs and prices from one period to the next adversely affects all approaches examined. The application was based on the EU KLEMS (2008) dataset and revealed that the different approaches do in fact result in different productivity change estimates, at least for some of the countries assessed. To assist researchers in selecting between conflicting estimates, a new, three step selection framework is proposed, based on findings of simulation analyses and established diagnostics/indicators. An application of this framework is also provided, based on the EU KLEMS dataset.

Intrapartum tests for group B streptococcus:accuracy and acceptability of screening

Objective: To assess the accuracy and acceptability of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and optical immunoassay (OIA) tests for the detection of maternal group B streptococcus (GBS) colonisation during labour, comparing their performance with the current UK policy of risk factor-based screening. Design Diagnostic test accuracy study. Setting and population Fourteen hundred women in labour at two large UK maternity units provided vaginal and rectal swabs for testing. Methods The PCR and OIA index tests were compared with the reference standard of selective enriched culture, assessed blind to index tests. Factors influencing neonatal GBS colonisation were assessed using multiple logistic regression, adjusting for antibiotic use. The acceptability of testing to participants was evaluated through a structured questionnaire administered after delivery. Main outcome measures The sensitivity and specificity of PCR, OIA and risk factor-based screening. Results Maternal GBS colonisation was 21% (19-24%) by combined vaginal and rectal swab enriched culture. PCR test of either vaginal or rectal swabs was more sensitive (84% [79-88%] versus 72% [65-77%]) and specific (87% [85-89%] versus 57% [53-60%]) than OIA (P <0.001), and far more sensitive (84 versus 30% [25-35%]) and specific (87 versus 80% [77-82%]) than risk factor-based screening (P <0.001). Maternal antibiotics (odds ratio, 0.22 [0.07-0.62]; P = 0.004) and a positive PCR test (odds ratio, 29.4 [15.8-54.8]; P <0.001) were strongly related to neonatal GBS colonisation, whereas risk factors were not (odds ratio, 1.44 [0.80-2.62]; P = 0.2). Conclusion Intrapartum PCR screening is a more accurate predictor of maternal and neonatal GBS colonisation than is OIA or risk factor-based screening, and is acceptable to women. © RCOG 2010 BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology.

Recognition accuracy and response bias to happy and sad facial expressions in patients with major depression

Impaired facial expression recognition has been associated with features of major depression, which could underlie some of the difficulties in social interactions in these patients. Patients with major depressive disorder and age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers judged the emotion of 100 facial stimuli displaying different intensities of sadness and happiness and neutral expressions presented for short (100 ms) and long (2,000 ms) durations. Compared with healthy volunteers, depressed patients demonstrated subtle impairments in discrimination accuracy and a predominant bias away from the identification as happy of mildly happy expressions. The authors suggest that, in depressed patients, the inability to accurately identify subtle changes in facial expression displayed by others in social situations may underlie the impaired interpersonal functioning.

Accuracy and optimal sampling in Monte Carlo solution of population balance equations

Implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation for the solution of population balance equations (PBEs) requires choice of initial sample number (N0), number of replicates (M), and number of bins for probability distribution reconstruction (n). It is found that Squared Hellinger Distance, H2, is a useful measurement of the accuracy of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and can be related directly to N0, M, and n. Asymptotic approximations of H2 are deduced and tested for both one-dimensional (1-D) and 2-D PBEs with coalescence. The central processing unit (CPU) cost, C, is found in a power-law relationship, C= aMNb0, with the CPU cost index, b, indicating the weighting of N0 in the total CPU cost. n must be chosen to balance accuracy and resolution. For fixed n, M × N0 determines the accuracy of MC prediction; if b > 1, then the optimal solution strategy uses multiple replications and small sample size. Conversely, if 0 < b < 1, one replicate and a large initial sample size is preferred. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 2394–2402, 2015

Effect of delay of first interview and repetition of interview on accuracy and confidence of recall of a flashbulb -type memory

Hearing of the news of the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, in a traffic accident, is taken as an analogue for being a percipient but uninvolved witness to a crime, or a witness to another person's sudden confession to some illegal act. This event (known in the literature as a “reception event”) has previously been hypothesized to cause one to form a special type of memory commonly known as a “flashbulb memory” (FB) (Brown and Kulik, 1977). FB's are hypothesized to be especially resilient against forgetting, highly detailed including peripheral details, clear, and inspiring great confidence in the individual for their accuracy. FB's are dependent for their formation upon surprise, emotional valence, and impact, or consequentiality to the witness of the initiating event. FB's are thought to be enhanced by frequent rehearsal. FB's are very important in the context of criminal investigation and litigation in that investigators and jurors usually place great store in witnesses, regardless of their actual accuracy, who claim to have a clear and complete recollection of an event, and who express this confidently. Therefore, the lives, or at least the freedom, of criminal defendants, and the fortunes of civil litigants hang on the testimony of witnesses professing to have FB's. ^ In this study, which includes a large and diverse sample (N = 305), participants were surveyed within 2–4 days after hearing of the fatal accident, and again at intervals of 2 and 4 weeks, 6, 12, and 18 months. Contrary to the FB hypothesis, I found that participants' FB's degraded over time beginning at least as early as two weeks post event. At about 12 months the memory trace stabilized, resisting further degradation. Repeated interviewing did not have any negative affect upon accuracy, contrary to concerns in the literature. Analysis by correlation and regression indicated no effect or predictive power for participant age, emotionality, confidence, or student status, as related to accuracy of recall; nor was participant confidence in accuracy predicted by emotional impact as hypothesized. Results also indicate that, contrary to the notions of investigators and jurors, witnesses become more inaccurate over time regardless of their confidence in their memories, even for highly emotional events. ^

Elemental analysis of biological matrices by laser ablation high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-HR-ICP-MS) and high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR -ICP -MS)

The need for elemental analysis of biological matrices such as bone, teeth, and plant matter for sourcing purposes has emerged within the forensic and geochemical laboratories. Trace elemental analyses for the comparison of materials such as glass by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and laser ablation ICP-MS has been shown to offer a high degree of discrimination between different manufacturing sources. Unit resolution ICP-MS instruments may suffer from some polyatomic interferences including 40Ar16O+, 40Ar 16O1H+, and 40Ca 16O+ that affect iron measurement at trace levels. Iron is an important element in the analysis of glass and also of interest for the analysis of several biological matrices. A comparison of the analytical performance of two different ICP-MS systems for iron analysis in glass for determining the method detection limits (MDLs), accuracy, and precision of the measurement is presented. Acid digestion and laser ablation methods are also compared. Iron polyatomic interferences were reduced or resolved by using dynamic reaction cell and high resolution ICP-MS. MDLs as low as 0.03 μg g-1 and 0.14 μg g-1 for laser ablation and solution based analyses respectively were achieved. The use of helium as a carrier gas demonstrated improvement in the detection limits of both iron isotopes (56Fe and 57Fe) in medium resolution for the HR-ICP-MS and with a dynamic reaction cell (DRC) coupled to a quadrupole ICP-MS system. ^ The development and application of robust analytical methods for the quantification of trace elements in biological matrices has lead to a better understanding of the potential utility of these measurements in forensic chemical analyses. Standard reference materials (SRMs) were used in the development of an analytical method using HR-ICP-MS and LA-HR-ICP-MS that was subsequently applied on the analysis of real samples. Bone, teeth and ashed marijuana samples were analyzed with the developed method. ^ Elemental analysis of bone samples from 12 different individuals provided discrimination between individuals, when femur and humerus bones were considered separately. Discrimination of 14 teeth samples based on elemental composition was achieved with the exception of one case where samples from the same individual were not associated with each other. The discrimination of 49 different ashed plant (cannabis) samples was achieved using the developed method. ^

An evaluation of home range models for marine fish tracking and fine scale habitat use and movement patterns of age 1 Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac)

My thesis examines fine-scale habitat use and movement patterns of age 1 Greenland cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac) tracked using acoustic telemetry. Recent advances in tracking technologies such as GPS and acoustic telemetry have led to increasingly large and detailed datasets that present new opportunities for researchers to address fine-scale ecological questions regarding animal movement and spatial distribution. There is a growing demand for home range models that will not only work with massive quantities of autocorrelated data, but that can also exploit the added detail inherent in these high-resolution datasets. Most published home range studies use radio-telemetry or satellite data from terrestrial mammals or avian species, and most studies that evaluate the relative performance of home range models use simulated data. In Chapter 2, I used actual field-collected data from age-1 Greenland cod tracked with acoustic telemetry to evaluate the accuracy and precision of six home range models: minimum convex polygons, kernel densities with plug-in bandwidth selection and the reference bandwidth, adaptive local convex hulls, Brownian bridges, and dynamic Brownian bridges. I then applied the most appropriate model to two years (2010-2012) of tracking data collected from 82 tagged Greenland cod tracked in Newman Sound, Newfoundland, Canada, to determine diel and seasonal differences in habitat use and movement patterns (Chapter 3). Little is known of juvenile cod ecology, so resolving these relationships will provide valuable insight into activity patterns, habitat use, and predator-prey dynamics, while filling a knowledge gap regarding the use of space by age 1 Greenland cod in a coastal nursery habitat. By doing so, my thesis demonstrates an appropriate technique for modelling the spatial use of fish from acoustic telemetry data that can be applied to high-resolution, high-frequency tracking datasets collected from mobile organisms in any environment.

A review of the accuracy and utility of motion sensors to measure physical activity of frail older hospitalised patients.

The purpose of this review was to examine the utility and accuracy of commercially available motion sensors to measure step-count and time spent upright in frail older hospitalized patients. A database search (CINAHL and PubMed, 2004–2014) and a further hand search of papers’ references yielded 24 validation studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Fifteen motion sensors (eight pedometers, six accelerometers, and one sensor systems) have been tested in older adults. Only three have been tested in hospital patients, two of which detected postures and postural changes accurately, but none estimated step-count accurately. Only one motion sensor remained accurate at speeds typical of frail older hospitalized patients, but it has yet to be tested in this cohort. Time spent upright can be accurately measured in the hospital, but further validation studies are required to determine which, if any, motion sensor can accurately measure step-count.

Elemental Analysis of Biological Matrices by Laser Ablation High Resolution Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-HR-ICP-MS) and High Resolution Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS)

The need for elemental analysis of biological matrices such as bone, teeth, and plant matter for sourcing purposes has emerged within the forensic and geochemical laboratories. Trace elemental analyses for the comparison of aterials such as glass by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and laser ablation ICP-MS has been shown to offer a high degree of discrimination between different manufacturing sources. Unit resolution ICP-MS instruments may suffer from some polyatomic interferences including 40Ar16O+, 40Ar16O1H+, and 40Ca16O+ that affect iron measurement at trace levels. Iron is an important element in the analysis of glass and also of interest for the analysis of several biological matrices. A comparison of the nalytical performance of two different ICP-MS systems for iron analysis in glass for determining the method detection limits (MDLs), accuracy, and precision of the measurement is presented. Acid digestion and laser ablation methods are also compared. Iron polyatomic interferences were reduced or resolved by using dynamic reaction cell and high resolution ICP-MS. MDLs as low as 0.03 ìg g-1 and 0.14 ìg g-1 for laser ablation and solution based analyses respectively were achieved. The use of helium as a carrier gas demonstrated improvement in the detection limits of both iron isotopes (56Fe and 57Fe) in medium resolution for the HR-ICP-MS and with a dynamic reaction cell (DRC) coupled to a quadrupole ICP-MS system. The development and application of robust analytical methods for the quantification of trace elements in biological matrices has lead to a better understanding of the potential utility of these measurements in forensic chemical analyses. Standard reference materials (SRMs) were used in the development of an analytical method using HR-ICP-MS and LA-HR-ICP-MS that was subsequently applied on the analysis of real samples. Bone, teeth and ashed marijuana samples were analyzed with the developed method. Elemental analysis of bone samples from 12 different individuals provided discrimination between individuals, when femur and humerus bones were considered separately. Discrimination of 14 teeth samples based on elemental composition was achieved with the exception of one case where samples from the same individual were not associated with each other. The discrimination of 49 different ashed plant (cannabis)samples was achieved using the developed method.

Improved Accuracy in Optical Motion Capture Measurements Leads to Increased Sensitivity to Kinematic Changes

Clinical optical motion capture allows us to obtain kinematic and kinetic outcome measures that aid clinicians in diagnosing and treating different pathologies affecting healthy gait. The long term aim for gait centres is for subject-specific analyses that can predict, prevent, or reverse the effects of pathologies through gait retraining. To track the body, anatomical segment coordinate systems are commonly created by applying markers to the surface of the skin over specific, bony anatomy that is manually palpated. The location and placement of these markers is subjective and precision errors of up to 25mm have been reported [1]. Additionally, the selection of which anatomical landmarks to use in segment models can result in large angular differences; for example angular differences in the trunk can range up to 53o for the same motion depending on marker placement [2]. These errors can result in erroneous kinematic outcomes that either diminish or increase the apparent effects of a treatment or pathology compared to healthy data. Our goal was to improve the accuracy and precision of optical motion capture outcome measures. This thesis describes two separate studies. In the first study we aimed to establish an approach that would allow us to independently quantify the error among trunk models. Using this approach we determined if there was a best model to accurately track trunk motion. In the second study we designed a device to improve precision for test, re-test protocols that would also reduce the set-up time for motion capture experiments. Our method to compare a kinematically derived centre of mass velocity to one that was derived kinetically was successful in quantifying error among trunk models. Our findings indicate that models that use lateral shoulder markers as well as limit the translational degrees of freedom of the trunk through shared pelvic markers result in the least amount of error for the tasks we studied. We also successfully reduced intra- and inter-operator anatomical marker placement errors using a marker alignment device. The improved accuracy and precision resulting from the methods established in this thesis may lead to increased sensitivity to changes in kinematics, and ultimately result in more consistent treatment outcomes.

The Accuracy and Reliability of Traditional Surface Flow Type Mapping: Is It Time for A New Method of Characterising Physical River Habitat?

Surface flow types (SFT) are advocated as ecologically relevant hydraulic units, often mapped visually from the bankside to characterise rapidly the physical habitat of rivers. SFT mapping is simple, non-invasive and cost-efficient. However, it is also qualitative, subjective and plagued by difficulties in recording accurately the spatial extent of SFT units. Quantitative validation of the underlying physical habitat parameters is often lacking, and does not consistently differentiate between SFTs. Here, we investigate explicitly the accuracy, reliability and statistical separability of traditionally mapped SFTs as indicators of physical habitat, using independent, hydraulic and topographic data collected during three surveys of a c. 50m reach of the River Arrow, Warwickshire, England. We also explore the potential of a novel remote sensing approach, comprising a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry (SfM), as an alternative method of physical habitat characterisation. Our key findings indicate that SFT mapping accuracy is highly variable, with overall mapping accuracy not exceeding 74%. Results from analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) tests found that strong differences did not exist between all SFT pairs. This leads us to question the suitability of SFTs for characterising physical habitat for river science and management applications. In contrast, the sUAS-SfM approach provided high resolution, spatially continuous, spatially explicit, quantitative measurements of water depth and point cloud roughness at the microscale (spatial scales ≤1m). Such data are acquired rapidly, inexpensively, and provide new opportunities for examining the heterogeneity of physical habitat over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Whilst continued refinement of the sUAS-SfM approach is required, we propose that this method offers an opportunity to move away from broad, mesoscale classifications of physical habitat (spatial scales 10-100m), and towards continuous, quantitative measurements of the continuum of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions which actually exists at the microscale.

Perceptual load affects eyewitness accuracy and susceptibility to leading questions

Load Theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) states that the level of perceptual load in a task (i.e.,the amount of information involved in processing task-relevant stimuli) determines the efficiency of selective attention. There is evidence that perceptual load affects distractor processing, with increased inattentional blindness under high load. Given that high load can result in individuals failing to report seeing obvious objects, it is conceivable that load may also impair memory for the scene. The current study is the first to assess the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory. Across three experiments (two video-based and one in a driving simulator), the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory was assessed. The results showed that eyewitnesses were less accurate under high load, in particular for peripheral details. For example, memory for the central character in the video was not affected by load but memory for a witness who passed by the window at the edge of the scene was significantly worse under high load. High load memories were also more open to suggestion, showing increased susceptibility to leading questions. High visual perceptual load also affected recall for auditory information, illustrating a possible cross-modal perceptual load effect on memory accuracy. These results have implications for eyewitness memory researchers and forensic professionals.

Forecasting errors, directional accuracy and profitability of currency trading: The case of EUR/USD exchange rate

We provide a comprehensive study of out-of-sample forecasts for the EUR/USD exchange rate based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations, in particular those based on principal components of forecasts, help to improve over benchmark trading strategies, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited.