Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Abordaje práctico sobre cómo mejorar el bienestar en los bovinos

Current challenges of humanity require a new paradigm for animal production, and invest time and attention to the development of new production techniques that take into account the principles of sustainability and animal welfare science. To do this, we must be committed to promoting animal welfare and health, ensure environmental sustainability, consumer satisfaction and profitability for producers. To change our relationship with animals there is no need for changes in market conditions or large investments, it is enough to know better the needs of the animals we raise, the management system adapted to its characteristics. Even in the most favorable management conditions, on farms that have technological resources and trained personnel, there is much to change, especially in the daily management of the animals. Some of the risks more evident in the traditional systems of beef production are: problems during parturition, morbidity and mortality of calves, lack of shade in the pastures, improper handling of animals, risk of injury, inadequate infrastructure, poor management practices during routine processing (marking, castration, vaccination, dehorning), poor welfare during loading, transport, unloading and slaughter. To remedy this, you can adopt good management practices, which have been shown to reduce risk and improve the welfare of cattle in different stages of the production chain. The objective of this review is to show some of the risks that reduce the welfare of cattle and examples of how the adoption of best management practices impact on improving the productivity of these production systems. Finally, some indicators for assessing welfare in production systems are shown.

Mapping soil pollution by spatial analysis and fuzzy classification

Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north-northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.

Inspeção pós-morte de bovinos: ocorrência de alterações sanitárias no abate e respectivo impacto em relação ao mercado globalizado

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Herbicides in the upper Poxim River, Sergipe, and the risk of contamination of water resources

Increased agricultural activity in watershed areas has been causing concern over contamination by herbicides in agricultural areas. The problem becomes more important when contamination can affect water for human consumption, as happens with water from the Poxim river, which supplies the city of Aracaju, capital of the State of Sergipe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of contamination by herbicides to both surface and groundwater in the upper sub-basin of the Poxim River, and to detect the presence of the active ingredients Diuron and Ametrine up-river from the sugar-cane plantations. Risk analysis was carried out using criteria from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the GUS index, and the GOSS method. It was observed that several active ingredients are at risk of leaching, demonstrating the importance of monitoring the river to control both the quality of water and the frequency and volume of herbicides used in the region. Based on the results, monitoring was carried out bi-monthly from July 2009 to July 2010 at two sampling points. Water samples were analyzed in the laboratory, where the presence of Diuron and Ametrine was noted. Water quality in the Sub-basin of the Rio Poxim is being influenced by the use of herbicides in the region. There was an increase in herbicide concentration in the surface water during the rainy season, possibly caused by soil runoff.

Ricerca di Escherichia coli produttori di verocitotossine e definizione di obiettivi di performance nella produzione primaria di alimenti di origine animale

La presenza di Escherichia coli produttori di verocitotossine (VTEC o STEC) rappresenta una tra le più importanti cause di malattia alimentare attualmente presenti in Europa. La sua presenza negli allevamenti di animali destinati alla produzione di alimenti rappresenta un importante rischio per la salute del consumatore. In conseguenza di comuni contaminazioni che si realizzano nel corso della macellazione, della mungitura i VTEC possono essere presenti nelle carni e nel latte e rappresentano un grave rischio se la preparazione per il consumo o i processi di lavorazione non comportano trattamenti in grado d’inattivarli (es. carni crude o poco cotte, latte non pastorizzato, formaggi freschi a latte crudo). La contaminazione dei campi coltivati conseguente alla dispersione di letame o attraverso acque contaminate può veicolare questi stipiti che sono normalmente albergati nell’intestino di ruminanti (domestici e selvatici) e anche prodotti vegetali consumati crudi, succhi e perfino sementi sono stati implicati in gravi episodi di malattia con gravi manifestazioni enteriche e complicazioni in grado di causare quadri patologici gravi e anche la morte. Stipiti di VTEC patogeni ingeriti con gli alimenti possono causare sintomi gastroenterici, con diarrea acquosa o emorragica (nel 50% dei casi), crampi addominali, febbre lieve e in una percentuale più bassa nausea e vomito. In alcuni casi (circa 5-10%) l’infezione gastroenterica si complica con manifestazioni tossiemiche caratterizzate da Sindrome Emolitico Uremica (SEU o HUS) con anemia emolitica, insufficienza renale grave e coinvolgimento neurologico o con una porpora trombotica trombocitopenica. Il tasso di mortalità dei pazienti che presentano l’infezione da E. coli è inferiore all’1%. I dati forniti dall’ECDC sulle infezioni alimentari nel periodo 2006-2010 hanno evidenziato un trend in leggero aumento del numero di infezioni a partire dal 2007. L’obiettivo degli studi condotti è quello di valutare la prevalenza ed il comportamento dei VTEC per una analisi del rischio più approfondita.

Perspectives on periodontal risk factors

The development of a clinical decision tree based on knowledge about risks and reported outcomes of therapy is a necessity for successful planning and outcome of periodontal therapy. This requires a well-founded knowledge of the disease entity and a broad knowledge of how different risk conditions attribute to periodontitis. The infectious etiology, a complex immune response, and influence from a large number of co-factors are challenging conditions in clinical periodontal risk assessment. The difficult relationship between independent and dependent risk conditions paired with limited information on periodontitis prevalence adds to difficulties in periodontal risk assessment. The current information on periodontitis risk attributed to smoking habits, socio-economic conditions, general health and subjects' self-perception of health, is not comprehensive, and this contributes to limited success in periodontal risk assessment. New models for risk analysis have been advocated. Their utility for the estimation of periodontal risk assessment and prognosis should be tested. The present review addresses several of these issues associated with periodontal risk assessment.

Analysis of BMP signalling through the receptor type IA in embryogenesis using conditional gene inactivation in mice

Although bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) were initially identified for their potent bone-inducing activity, their precise roles in processes of endochondral and intramembranous bone formation are far from being clear. Tissue-specific loss-of-function experiments using the BMP receptor type IA (BMPR-IA) are particularly attractive since this receptor is thought to be essential for signaling by the closely related BMPs -2, 4, and 7. To ablate signaling through this receptor during chondrogenesis, we have generated transgenic mice expressing Cre recombinase under the control of the collagen type II (Col2a1) gene regulatory sequences. Mice lacking BMPR-IA function in chondrocytes display a number of skeletal abnormalities, including defects in bones of the chondrocranium, abnormal dorsal vertebral processes, scapulae with severe hypoplasia of dorsal elements, and shortening of the long bones. Alterations in the growth plate of long bones in mutants suggest that BMPR-IA is not required for early steps of the chondrocyte specification, but is rather important in regulation of terminal differentiation. Molecular analysis revealed noticeable downregulation of the Ihh/Ptch signalling pathway, decreased chondrocyte proliferation rate and deregulation of hypertrophy. ^ In order to elucidate the role of BMP signalling in development of the limb and intramembranous ossification, we have used mice expressing Cre recombinase under control of the Prx1 (MHox) regulatory elements (M. Logan, pers comm.). Cre activity was found in those mice in the developing limb bud mesenchyme, as well as in a subset of cranial neural crest cells. Prx1-Cre-induced conditional mutants display prominent defects in distal limb outgrowth, as well as ossification defects in a number of neural crest-derived calvarial bones. Intriguingly, mutant limbs displayed alterations in patterning along all three axes. Molecular analysis revealed ectopic anterior Shh/Ptch signalling pathway activation and expression of some Hox genes. Observed loss of Msx1 and Msx2 expression in the progress zone correlates with downregulation of Cyclin D1 and decreased distal outgrowth. Abnormal ventral localization of Lmx1b-expressing cells along with observed later morphological abnormalities suggest a novel role for BMP signalling in establishment or maintaining of the dorso-ventral polarity in the limb mesoderm. ^

Assessing the Environmental Protection Agency's guidelines for cumulative risk assessment: Are they suitable for state agencies and EPA regional offices?

In the field of health risk analysis, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is a necessary, although undeniably more complex approach to understanding the mixture of stressors, whether chemical or psychosocial, that exist in our environment, in all the pathways through which the chemicals may evolve—air, soil, or water, as well as the accumulation of these exposures over time. Related, or attached to the developing awareness of scientists understanding this mix of combined health effects is the burgeoning of the environmental justice movement, in which educated community advocates and even affected community members have called attention to evidence of a higher pollution burden in minority and/or lower SES communities. The intention of this paper is to 1) examine the development and understanding of CRA, primarily by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2) to assess several states agencies and some EPA regional offices' interpretation of CRA, again based primarily on EPA guidance, and 3) to analyze how CRA might be refined in its implementation—giving some cues as to how the EPA may more effectively interact with communities interested in CRA.^

A Methodological model to assist the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modelling of project “Net Present Value” (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project lifecycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

A Fuzzy approach based on dynamic programming and metaheuristics for selecting safeguards for risk management for information systems

In this paper we focus on the selection of safeguards in a fuzzy risk analysis and management methodology for information systems (IS). Assets are connected by dependency relationships, and a failure of one asset may affect other assets. After computing impact and risk indicators associated with previously identified threats, we identify and apply safeguards to reduce risks in the IS by minimizing the transmission probabilities of failures throughout the asset network. However, as safeguards have associated costs, the aim is to select the safeguards that minimize costs while keeping the risk within acceptable levels. To do this, we propose a dynamic programming-based method that incorporates simulated annealing to tackle optimizations problems.

In-House Risk

Over the last thirty years or so, as the number of in-house counsel rose and their role increased in scope and prominence, increased attention has been given the various challenges these lawyers face under the ABA Model Rules of Professional Conduct, from figuring out who is the client the in-house lawyer represents, to navigating conflicts of interest, maintaining independence, and engaging in a multijurisdictional practice of law. Less attention, to date, has been given to business risk assessment, perhaps in part because that function appears to be part of in-house counsel’s role as a business person rather than as a lawyer. Overlooking the role of in-house counsel in assessing risk, however, is a risky proposition, because risk assessment constitutes for some in-house counsel a significant aspect of their role, a role that in turn informs and shapes how in-house counsel perform other more overtly legal tasks. For example, wearing her hat as General Counsel, a lawyer for the entity-client may opine and explain issues of compliance with the law. Wearing her hat as the Chief Legal Officer, however, the same lawyer may now be called upon as a member of business management to participate in the decision whether to comply with the law. After outlining some of the traditional challenges faced by in-house counsel under the Rules, this short essay explores risk assessment by in-house counsel and its impact on their role and function under the Rules. It argues that the key to in-house lawyers’ successful navigation of multiple roles, and, in particular, to their effective assessment of business risk is keen awareness of the various hats they are called upon to wear. Navigating these various roles may not be easy for lawyers, whose training and habits of mind often teach them to zoom in on legal risks to the exclusion of business risks. Indeed, law schools continue to teach law students “to think like a lawyer” and law firms, the historical breeding grounds for in-house counsel positions, in a world of increased specialization master the narrower contemplation of legal questions. Yet the present and future of in-house counsel practice demand of its practitioners the careful and gradual coming to terms, buildup and mastery of business risk analysis skills, alongside the cultivation of traditional legal risk analysis tools.

A multiple account framework for cost-benefit analysis

The paper presents a spreadsheet-based multiple account framework for cost-benefit analysis which incorporates all the usual concerns of cost-benefit analysts such as shadow-pricing to account for market failure. distribution of net benefits. sensitivity and risk analysis, cost of public funds, and environmental effects. The approach is generalizable to a wide range of projects and situations and offers a number of advantages to both analysts and decision-makers, including transparency, a check on internal consistency, and a detailed summary of project net benefits disaggregated by stakeholder group. Of particular importance is the ease with which this framework allows for a project to be evaluated from alternative decision-making perspectives and under alternative policy scenarios where the trade-offs among the project's stakeholders can readily be identified and quantified. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.