Risk, seasonality and the asymmetric behaviour of stock returns

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between systematic risk and return across the different months of the year for both large and small firms. In the case of both large and small firms systematic risk appears to be priced in only two months of the year, January and April. During the other months no persistent relationship between systematic risk and return appears to exist. The paper also shows that when systematic risk is priced, the size of the systematic risk premium is higher for large firms than for small firms and varies significantly across the months of the year.

Perception of risk, feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour in women drivers across the lifespan.

Sustained driving in older age has implications for quality of life and mental health. Studies have shown that despite the recognised importance of driving in maintaining health and social engagement, many women give up driving prematurely or adopt self-imposed restrictive driving practices. Emotional responses to driving have been implicated in these decisions. This research examined the effect of risk perception and feelings of vulnerability on women’s driving behaviour across the lifespan. It also developed and tested a modified theory of planned behaviour intervention to positively affect driving habits. The first two studies (N=395) used quantitative analysis to model driving behaviours affected by risk perception and feelings of vulnerability, and established that feelings of vulnerability do indeed affect women’s driving behaviour, specifically resulting in increases in driving avoidance and the adoption of maladaptive driving styles. Further, that self-regulation, conceptualised as avoidance, is used by drivers across the lifespan. Qualitative analysis of focus group data (N=48) in the third study provided a deeper understanding of the variations in coping behaviours adopted by sub-groups of drivers and extended the definition of self-regulation to incorporate adaptive coping strategies. The next study (N=64) reported the construction and preliminary validation of the novel self-regulation index (SRI) to measure wider self-regulation behaviours using an objective measure of driving behaviour, a simulated driving task. The understanding gained from the formative research was used in the final study, an extended theory of planned behaviour intervention to promote wider self-regulation behaviour, measured using the previously validated self-regulation index. The intervention achieved moderate success with changes in affective attitude and normative beliefs as well as self-reported behaviour. The results offer promise for self-regulation, incorporating a spectrum of planning and coping behaviours, to be used as a mechanism to assist drivers in achieving their personal mobility goals whilst promoting safe driving.

Quantitative risk management aids refinery construction

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure that schedule, cost and quality goals are met on large-scale construction projects. These jobs require complex planning, designing and implementation processes. The main reasons for a project's nonachievement in India's hydrocarbon processing industry are changes in scope and design, altered government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, under and/or improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed by applying risk management throughout the project life cycle.

Risk-based model aids selection of pipeline inspection, maintenance strategies

The existing method of pipeline monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, wastes time and is expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been developed. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction method and logical insurance plans.The risk-based model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyze their effects by determining the probabilities of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis, which establishes the effect of a failure in terms of cost caused by each risk factor and determines the cumulative effect of failure through probability analysis.

Diving Behaviour of Red-Eared Sliders (Trachemys Scripta Elegans) Under the Risk of Predation

Predation risk influences a variety of behavioral decisions of many organisms and results in animals having to trade-offs safety with other behaviors. The effects of predation, however, have been largely ignored in the study of vertebrates that forage underwater (divers). I tested the predictions of an on optimal diving model that incorporates the risk of predation, using red eared slider turtles (Trachemys scripta elegans). Specifically, I tested the hypothesis that divers will increase their surface time when instantaneous risk decreases with time at the surface. By using a model aerial predator and exposing turtles to both risk and no risk treatments, I tested how turtles perceive risk at the surface and whether they increase or decrease their surface time depending on how they assess risk. The model's predictions for situations in which risk at the surface is decreasing with time spent there-likely to be the case for aerial predation-were supported by the results. I found that surface time and time spent submerged per dive were significantly greater when turtles were at risk and that turtles also spent more time resting at the bottom when exposed to this treatment. Interestingly, turtles under risk engaged in vigilance behaviors while on the bottom just prior to surfacing. This behavior could have implications for model predictions and future experiments are needed to test whether subsurface vigilance may alter diving decisions made under risk.

The role of time and risk preferences in adherence to physician advice on health behaviour change

Acknowledgements The Interdisciplinary Chronic Disease Collaboration (ICDC) is funded through the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research (AHFMR) Inter-disciplinary Team Grants Program. AHFMR is now Alberta Innovates – Health Solutions (AI-HS). The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies.

Intervention fidelity for a complex behaviour change intervention in community pharmacy addressing cardiovascular disease risk

BACKGROUND: Delivery of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programs by community pharmacists appears effective and enhances health service access. However, their capacity to implement complex behavioural change processes during patient counselling remains largely unexplored. This study aims to determine intervention fidelity by pharmacists for behavioural components of a complex educational intervention for CVD prevention. After receiving training to improve lifestyle and medicines adherence, pharmacists recruited 70 patients aged 50-74 years without established CVD, and taking antihypertensive or lipid lowering therapy. Patients received five counselling sessions, each at monthly intervals. Researchers assessed biomedical and behavioural risk factors at baseline and six months. Pharmacists documented key outcomes from counselling after each session. Most patients (86%) reported suboptimal cardiovascular diets, 41% reported suboptimal medicines adherence, and 39% were physically inactive. Of those advised to complete the intervention, 85% attended all five sessions. Pharmacists achieved patient agreement with most recommended goals for behaviour change, and overwhelmingly translated goals into practical behavioural strategies. Barriers to changing behaviours were regularly documented, and pharmacists reported most behavioural strategies as having had some success. Meaningful improvements to health behaviours were observed post-intervention. Findings support further exploration of pharmacists' potential roles for delivering interventions with complex behaviour change requirements.

Travellers’ intention to purchase travel online: integrating trust and risk to the theory of planned behaviour

This study aims to determine which factors influence travellers’ intentions to purchase travel online by proposing and empirically testing a new model grounded on the theory of planned behaviour. In order to validate the model, a web-based questionnaire was applied and a total of 1732 valid responses were obtained. The findings show that attitudes, perceived risk, and perceived behavioural control have significant effects on intentions to purchase travel online. However, contrary to what was expected, neither trust nor the influence of others seems to directly affect intentions to purchase travel online. Finally, the paper discusses the findings with the implicationsfor theory and practice and makes several suggestions for future research.

Travellers’ intention to purchase travel online: integrating trust and risk to the theory of planned behaviour

This study aims to determine which factors influence travellers’ intentions to purchase travel online by proposing and empirically testing a new model grounded on the theory of planned behaviour. In order to validate the model, a web-based questionnaire was applied and a total of 1732 valid responses were obtained. The findings show that attitudes, perceived risk, and perceived behavioural control have significant effects on intentions to purchase travel online. However, contrary to what was expected, neither trust nor the influence of others seems to directly affect intentions to purchase travel online. Finally, the paper discusses the findings with the implications for theory and practice and makes several suggestions for future research.

The effect of consumer risk perceptions and information search on willingness to buy GM food products: A cross cultural analysis

This paper seeks to address the widespread call in the literature for the cross-cultural examination ( and validation) of accepted concepts within consumer behaviour, such as consumer risk perceptions and information search. The findings of the study provide support for a number of accepted relationships, whilst identifying distinct cross cultural differences in external information search and willingness to buy genetically modified (GM) food products by consumers.

Adolescent protective behaviour to reduce drug and alcohol use, alcohol-related harm and interpersonal violence

Typically adolescents' friends are considered a risk factor for adolescent engagement in risk-taking. This study took a more novel approach, by examining adolescent friendship as a protective factor. In particular it investigated friends' potential to intervene to reduce risk-taking. 540 adolescents (mean age 13.47 years) were asked about their intention to intervene to reduce friends' alcohol, drug and alcohol-related harms and about psychosocial factors potentially associated with intervening. More than half indicated that they would intervene in friends' alcohol, drug use, alcohol-related harms and interpersonal violence. Intervening was associated with being female, having friends engage in overall less risk-taking and having greater school connectedness. The findings provide an important understanding of increasing adolescent protective behavior as a potential strategy to reduce alcohol and drug related harms.