How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

KAM: Automatic Planning and Interpretation of Numerical Experiments Using Geometrical Methods

KAM is a computer program that can automatically plan, monitor, and interpret numerical experiments with Hamiltonian systems with two degrees of freedom. The program has recently helped solve an open problem in hydrodynamics. Unlike other approaches to qualitative reasoning about physical system dynamics, KAM embodies a significant amount of knowledge about nonlinear dynamics. KAM's ability to control numerical experiments arises from the fact that it not only produces pictures for us to see, but also looks at (sic---in its mind's eye) the pictures it draws to guide its own actions. KAM is organized in three semantic levels: orbit recognition, phase space searching, and parameter space searching. Within each level spatial properties and relationships that are not explicitly represented in the initial representation are extracted by applying three operations ---(1) aggregation, (2) partition, and (3) classification--- iteratively.

Planning and Scheduling Decisions in Supply Chains with Multiple Supply Modes: An Integrated Approach

We address the problem of jointly determining shipment planning and scheduling decisions with the presence of multiple shipment modes. We consider long lead time, less expensive sea shipment mode, and short lead time but expensive air shipment modes. Existing research on multiple shipment modes largely address the short term scheduling decisions only. Motivated by an industrial problem where planning decisions are independent of the scheduling decisions, we investigate the benefits of integrating the two sets of decisions. We develop sequence of mathematical models to address the planning and scheduling decisions. Preliminary computational results indicate improved performance of the integrated approach over some of the existing policies used in real-life situations.

Modelling for Problem Solving in the Large

This a short presentation which introduces how models and modelling help us to solve large scale problems in the real world. It introduces the idea that dynamic behaviour is caused by interacting components in the system. Feedback in the system makes behaviour prediction difficult unless we use modelling to support understanding

Planning and Projects of Secondary Electric Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a methodology to achieve integrated planning and projects for secondary distribution circuits. The planning model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to resolve this problem, a tabu search (TS) algorithm is used, with a neighborhood structure developed to explore the physical characteristics of specific geographies included in the planning and expansion of secondary networks, thus obtaining effective solutions as well as low operating costs and investments. The project stage of secondary circuits consists of calculating the mechanical efforts to determine the support structures of the primary and secondary distribution systems and determining the types of structures that should be used in the system according to topological and electrical parameters of the network and, therefore, accurately assessing the costs involved in the construction and/or reform of secondary systems. A constructive heuristic based on information of the electrical and topological conditions between the medium voltage and low voltage systems is used to connect the primary systems and secondary circuits. The results obtained from planning and design simulations of a real secondary system of electric energy distribution are presented.

Student Problem Solving

The purpose of this study is to determine if students solve math problems using addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division consistently and whether students transfer these skills to other mathematical situations and solutions. In this action research study, a classroom of 6th grade mathematics students was used to investigate how students solve word problems and how they determine which mathematical approach to use to solve a problem. It was discovered that many of the students read and re-read a question before they try to find an answer. Most students will check their answer to determine if it is correct and makes sense. Most students agree that mastering basic math facts is very important for problem solving and prefer mathematics that does not focus on problem solving. As a result of this research, it will be emphasized to the building principal and staff the need for a unified and focused curriculum with a scope and sequence for delivery that is consistently followed. The importance of managing basic math skills and making sure each student is challenged to be a mathematical thinker will be stressed.

Using Math Vocabulary Building to Increase Problem Solving Abilities in a 5th Grade Classroom

In this action research study of my 5th grade mathematics class, I investigated how students’ understanding of math vocabulary impacts their understanding of the curriculum. I discovered math vocabulary plays an important role in a student’s ability to understand daily lessons, complete homework, discuss ideas in groups, take tests and be successful on achievement tests. A student’s ability to understand the words around him (or her) in math class seem very related to his or her ability to solve word problems. Word problems are what our national assessments are all about. I also discovered that direct instruction and support of math vocabulary increased test scores and confidence in students as test takers. As a result of this research, I plan to continue to find ways to emphasize the vocabulary used in our current math curriculum. This process will start at the beginning of the year. I will continue to look for strategies that promote math vocabulary retention in my students. And finally, I will share my findings with my colleagues, so my research can be used as part of our School Improvement Goals.

Enhancing Problem Solving Through Math Clubs

This action research paper was about a mandatory math club of seventh graders that met once per week over a 12-week period. The students gathered in the classroom during their regularly scheduled math class. The focus of the math club was to solve challenging math problems, usually cooperatively, and sometimes competitively. The math club activities varied from week to week to offer an element of surprise. Frequently, the students presented their solutions to peers, along with an explanation of the way they solved the problem. Instruments were used to collect information about problem-solving accuracy, student attitudes, and student and teacher behaviors. I discovered a slight improvement in problem solving. Also, on Math Club days, the teaching was less teacher-centered and more student-centered. As a result of this research, I plan to offer my middle school students more problem-solving opportunities and I plan to allow my students to work cooperatively on a regular basis.

Does Decoding Increase Word Problem Solving Skills?

In this action research study of my classroom of 7th grade mathematics, I investigated whether the use of decoding would increase the students’ ability to problem solve. I discovered that knowing how to decode a word problem is only one facet of being a successful problem solver. I also discovered that confidence, effective instruction, and practice have an impact on improving problem solving skills. Because of this research, I plan to alter my problem solving guide that will enable it to be used by any classroom teacher. I also plan to keep adding to my math problem solving clue words and share with others. My hope is that I will be able to explain my project to math teachers in my district to make them aware of the importance of knowing the steps to solve a word problem.

Improving Students’ Story Problem Solving Abilities

In this action research study of my classroom of 8th grade mathematics students, I investigated if learning different problem solving strategies helped students successfully solve problems. I also investigated if students’ knowledge of the topics involved in story problems had an impact on students’ success rates. I discovered that students were more successful after learning different problem solving strategies and when given problems with which they have experience. I also discovered that students put forth a greater effort when they approach the story problem like a game, instead of just being another math problem that they have to solve. An unexpected result was that the students’ degree of effort had a major impact on their success rate. As a result of this research, I plan to continue to focus on problem solving strategies in my classes. I also plan to improve my methods on getting students’ full effort in class.

Cooperative Learning in Relation to Problem Solving in the Mathematics Classroom

In this action research study of my classroom of 5th grade mathematics, I investigated cooperative learning and how it is related to problem solving as well as written and oral communication. I discovered that cooperative learning has a positive impact on students’ abilities in problem solving and their overall impression of mathematics and group work. I also found that my students’ communication skills improved in oral explanations of their work. As a result of this research I plan to continue my implementation of cooperative learning in my classroom as a general method of teaching. I also plan to continue to use cooperative learning in working with my students to increase their achievement in problem solving and communication of mathematics.

Learning generalization in problem solving by a blue-fronted parrot (Amazona aestiva)

Pepperberg (The Alex studies: cognitive and communicative abilities of gray parrots. Harvard University Press, Cambridge;1999) showed that some of the complex cognitive capabilities found in primates are also present in psittacine birds. Through the replication of an experiment performed with cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus oedipus) by Hauser et al. (Anim Behav 57:565-582; 1999), we examined a blue-fronted parrot`s (Amazona aestiva) ability to generalize the solution of a particular problem in new but similar cases. Our results show that, at least when it comes to solving this particular problem, our parrot subject exhibited learning generalization capabilities resembling the tamarins`.

Integrated pulp and paper mill planning and scheduling

This article describes a real-world production planning and scheduling problem occurring at an integrated pulp and paper mill (P&P) which manufactures paper for cardboard out of produced pulp. During the cooking of wood chips in the digester, two by-products are produced: the pulp itself (virgin fibers) and the waste stream known as black liquor. The former is then mixed with recycled fibers and processed in a paper machine. Here, due to significant sequence-dependent setups in paper type changeovers, sizing and sequencing of lots have to be made simultaneously in order to efficiently use capacity. The latter is converted into electrical energy using a set of evaporators, recovery boilers and counter-pressure turbines. The planning challenge is then to synchronize the material flow as it moves through the pulp and paper mills, and energy plant, maximizing customer demand (as backlogging is allowed), and minimizing operation costs. Due to the intensive capital feature of P&P, the output of the digester must be maximized. As the production bottleneck is not fixed, to tackle this problem we propose a new model that integrates the critical production units associated to the pulp and paper mills, and energy plant for the first time. Simple stochastic mixed integer programming based local search heuristics are developed to obtain good feasible solutions for the problem. The benefits of integrating the three stages are discussed. The proposed approaches are tested on real-world data. Our work may help P&P companies to increase their competitiveness and reactiveness in dealing with demand pattern oscillations. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.