Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Simulation-based systematic review of imatinib population pharmacokinetics and PK-PD relationships in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients

Objectives: Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) analyses have been performed with the anticancer drug imatinib. Inspired by the approach of meta-analysis, we aimed to compare and combine results from published studies in a useful way - in particular for improving the clinical interpretation of imatinib concentration measurements in the scope of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Methods: Original PPK analyses and PK-PD studies (PK surrogate: trough concentration Cmin; PD outcomes: optimal early response and specific adverse events) were searched systematically on MEDLINE. From each identified PPK model, a predicted concentration distribution under standard dosage was derived through 1000 simulations (NONMEM), after standardizing model parameters to common covariates. A "reference range" was calculated from pooled simulated concentrations in a semi-quantitative approach (without specific weighting) over the whole dosing interval. Meta-regression summarized relationships between Cmin and optimal/suboptimal early treatment response. Results: 9 PPK models and 6 relevant PK-PD reports in CML patients were identified. Model-based predicted median Cmin ranged from 555 to 1388 ng/ml (grand median: 870 ng/ml and inter-quartile range: 520-1390 ng/ml). The probability to achieve optimal early response was predicted to increase from 60 to 85% from 520 to 1390 ng/ml across PK-PD studies (odds ratio for doubling Cmin: 2.7). Reporting of specific adverse events was too heterogeneous to perform a regression analysis. The general frequency of anemia, rash and fluid retention increased however consistently with Cmin, but less than response probability. Conclusions: Predicted drug exposure may differ substantially between various PPK analyses. In this review, heterogeneity was mainly attributed to 2 "outlying" models. The established reference range seems to cover the range where both good efficacy and acceptable tolerance are expected for most patients. TDM guided dose adjustment appears therefore justified for imatinib in CML patients. Its usefulness remains now to be prospectively validated in a randomized trial.

Taxonomy of the genus Leishmania: present and future trends and their implications

The application of different taxonomic methods (Cladistic, Evolutionary Taxonomy and Numerical Taxonomy) to the taxonomy of the Genus Leishmania are reviewed. The major groupings of the most recent classifications obtained using the cladistical approach agree with the major divisions of previous classifications which used traditional taxonomy (Evolutionary Taxonomy). The advantage of the cladistical approach is that it produces cladograms whose branches indicate more accurately levels of relationships between the different taxa. Numerical Taxonomy is useful for identification but not as good as the cladistical approach for classification. The ancient division of this monophyletic genus into two major evolutionary lines supports the use of the subgeneric names Leishmania and Viannia.

Population pharmacokinetics and clinical response for artemether-lumefantrine in pregnant and nonpregnant women with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania.

Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Its efficacy during pregnancy has recently been challenged due to altered pharmacokinetic (PK) properties in this vulnerable group. The aim of this study was to determine the PK profile of AL in pregnant and nonpregnant women and assess their therapeutic outcome. Thirty-three pregnant women and 22 nonpregnant women with malaria were treated with AL (80/480 mg) twice daily for 3 days. All patients provided five venous plasma samples for drug quantification at random times over 7 days. Inter- and intraindividual variability was assessed, and the effects of covariates were quantified using a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach (NONMEM). A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination with linear metabolism from drug to metabolite fitted the data best for both arthemether (AM) and lumefantrine (LF) and their metabolites. Pregnancy status and diarrhea showed a significant influence on LF PK. The relative bioavailability of lumefantrine and its metabolism rate into desmethyl-lumefantrine were, respectively, 34% lower and 78% higher in pregnant women than in nonpregnant patients. The overall PCR-uncorrected treatment failure rates were 18% in pregnant women and 5% in nonpregnant women (odds ratio [OR] = 4.04; P value of 0.22). A high median day 7 lumefantrine concentration was significantly associated with adequate clinical and parasitological response (P = 0.03). The observed reduction in the relative bioavailability of lumefantrine in pregnant women may explain the higher treatment failure in this group, mostly due to lower posttreatment prophylaxis. Hence, a modified treatment regimen of malaria in pregnancy should be considered.

Population dynamics and feeding behavior of Triatoma brasiliensis and Triatoma pseudomaculata, main vectors of Chagas disease in Northeastern Brazil

Biological parameters of Triatoma brasiliensis and T. pseudomaculata that could influence the epidemiological importance of these insects as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi were compared. The parameters studied were incubation period, interval between hatching or moulting and first feeding, number of blood meals, development time, mortality, net reproductive rate, instantaneous daily reproductive rate, time-lapse before starting feeding, duration of feeding, blood ingestion capacity, occurrence of defecation and blood ingestion velocity. Most aspects of feeding were similar for the two species, although T. pseudomaculata had a longer life cycle than T. brasiliensis producing one and two generations per year, respectively. The two species had similar instantaneous daily rates of population growth.

2004 National report to the EMCDDA by the Reitox National Focal Point: Norway: New developments, trends and in-depth information on selected issues.

This is the fourth annual report to the EMCDDA from the Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research (SIRUS) on the drugs situation in Norway. The report has been drawn up in accordance with the new reporting guidelines introduced by the EMCDDA this year. We have endeavoured to follow these as consistently as possible, with the main focus on “new developments” and substantial changes in epidemiology, legislation and organisation. To allow readers to obtain more background information the report contains a number of references to the national report for 2003, and occasional references to the report for 2002.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

2006 National report (2005 data) to the EMCDDA by the Reitox National Focal Point: Norway: New developments, trends and in-depth information on selected issues.

This is a 2006 national report to the EMCDDA, using 2005 data. It is compiled by the Reitox national focal point and covers epidemiology, policing, strategy, drugs markets, drug-related infectious diseases, drug-related death and problem drug use in Norway.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Behaviour change at population, community and individual levels: NICE Public Health Guidance 6

This guidance is aimed at those responsible for helping people to change their behaviour to improve their health. This includes policy makers and those working in local authorities and the community and voluntary sectors. It gives advice on how to plan and run relevant initiatives. The recommendations include the following advice: base interventions on a proper assessment of the target group, where they are located and the behaviour which is to be changed: careful planning is the cornerstone of success  work with other organisations and the community itself to decide on and develop initiatives build on the skills and knowledge that already exists in the community, for example, by encouraging networks of people who can support each other take account of and resolve problems that prevent people changing their behaviour (for example, the costs involved in taking part in exercise programmes or buying fresh fruit and vegetables, or lack of knowledge about how to make changes) base all interventions on evidence of what works train staff to help people change their behaviour evaluate all interventions.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Breastfeeding in the East Midlands: patterns, trends and data quality issues

Breastfeeding has important health benefits for both mother and child. Breastfed babies are less likely to report with gastric, respiratory and urinary tract infections and allergic diseases, while they are also less likely to become obese in later childhood. Improving breastfeeding initiation has become a national priority, and a national target has been set ̢?oto deliver an increase of two percentage points per annum in breastfeeding initiation rate, focusing especially on women from disadvantaged areas̢?. Despite improvements in data quality in previous years, it still remains difficult to construct an accurate and reliable picture of variations and trends in breastfeeding in the East Midlands. It is essential that nationally standardised data collection systems are put in place to enable effective and accurate monitoring and evaluation of breastfeeding status both at a local and national level.

A preliminary analysis of the population genetics and molecular phylogenetics of Onchocerca volvulus (Nematoda: Filarioidea) using nuclear ribosomal second internal transcribed spacer sequences

Nuclear internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) rDNA sequences were used for a molecular phylogenetics analysis of five Onchocerca species. The sister species of the human parasite O. volvulus was found to be the cattle parasite O. ochengi and not O. gibsoni, contrary to chromosomal evidence. The genetic differentiation of two African populations (representing the two African strains) and a Brazilian population of O. volvulus was also studied. Phylogenetic and network reconstruction did not show any clustering of ITS2 alleles on geographic or strain grounds. Furthermore, population genetics tests showed no indication of population differentiation but suggested gene flow among the three populations.

Population structure and diversity of the pathogenic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus isolated from different sources and geographic origins

Fifty-five clinical and environmental Aspergillus fumigatus isolates from Mexico, Argentina, France and Peru were analyzed to determine their genetic variability, reproductive system and level of differentiation using amplified fragment length polymorphism markers. The level of genetic variability was assessed by measuring the percentage of polymorphic loci, number of effective alleles, expected heterozygocity and by performing an association index test (I A). The degree of genetic differentiation and variation was determined using analysis of molecular variance at three levels. Using the paired genetic distances, a dendrogram was built to detect the genetic relationship among alleles. Finally, a network of haplotypes was constructed to determine the geographic relationship among them. The results indicate that the clinical isolates have greater genetic variability than the environmental isolates. The I A of the clinical and environmental isolates suggests a recombining population structure. The genetic differentiation among isolates and the dendrogram suggest that the groups of isolates are different. The network of haplotypes demonstrates that the majority of the isolates are grouped according to geographic origin.

Population pharmacokinetics and effects of efavirenz in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection.

OBJECTIVE: The reverse transcriptase inhibitor efavirenz is currently used at a fixed dose of 600 mg/d. However, dosage individualization based on plasma concentration monitoring might be indicated. This study aimed to assess the efavirenz pharmacokinetic profile and interpatient versus intrapatient variability in patients who are positive for human immunodeficiency virus, to explore the relationship between drug exposure, efficacy, and central nervous system toxicity and to build up a Bayesian approach for dosage adaptation. METHODS: The population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed by use of NONMEM based on plasma samples from a cohort of unselected patients receiving efavirenz. With the use of a 1-compartment model with first-order absorption, the influence of demographic and clinical characteristics on oral clearance and oral volume of distribution was examined. The average drug exposure during 1 dosing interval was estimated for each patient and correlated with markers of efficacy and toxicity. The population kinetic parameters and the variabilities were integrated into a Bayesian equation for dosage adaptation based on a single plasma sample. RESULTS: Data from 235 patients with a total of 719 efavirenz concentrations were collected. Oral clearance was 9.4 L/h, oral volume of distribution was 252 L, and the absorption rate constant was 0.3 h(-1). Neither the demographic covariates evaluated nor the comedications showed a clinically significant influence on efavirenz pharmacokinetics. A large interpatient variability was found to affect efavirenz relative bioavailability (coefficient of variation, 54.6%), whereas the intrapatient variability was small (coefficient of variation, 26%). An inverse correlation between average drug exposure and viral load and a trend with central nervous system toxicity were detected. This enabled the derivation of a dosing adaptation strategy suitable to bring the average concentration into a therapeutic target from 1000 to 4000 microg/L to optimize viral load suppression and to minimize central nervous system toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: The high interpatient and low intrapatient variability values, as well as the potential relationship with markers of efficacy and toxicity, support the therapeutic drug monitoring of efavirenz. However, further evaluation is needed before individualization of an efavirenz dosage regimen based on routine drug level monitoring should be recommended for optimal patient management.

Estimation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult male survival in an urban area in Panama

Traditional mosquito control strategies rely heavily on the use of chemical insecticides. However, concerns about the efficiency of traditional control methods, environmental impact and emerging pesticide resistance have highlighted the necessity for developing innovative tools for mosquito control. Some novel strategies, including release of insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL®), rely on the sustained release of modified male mosquitoes and therefore benefit from a thorough understanding of the biology of the male of the species. In this report we present the results of a mark-release-recapture study aimed at: (i) establishing the survival in the field of laboratory-reared, wild-type male Aedes aegypti and (b) estimating the size of the local adult Ae. aegypti population. The study took place in Panama, a country where recent increases in the incidence and severity of dengue cases have prompted health authorities to evaluate alternative strategies for vector control. Results suggest a life expectancy of 2.3 days for released male mosquitoes (confidence interval: 1.78-2.86). Overall, the male mosquito population was estimated at 58 males/ha (range 12-81 males/ha), which can be extrapolated to an average of 0.64 pupae/person for the study area. The practical implications of these results are discussed.

Chaos and order in the contemporary city. The impact of urban spatial structure on population density and commuting distance in Barcelona, 1986-2001.

One of the criticisms leveled at the model of dispersed city found all over the world is its unarticulated, random, and undifferentiated nature. To check this idea in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, we estimated the impact of the urban spatial structure (CBD, subcenters and transportation infrastructures) over the population density and commuting distance. The results are unfavorable to the hypothesis of the increasing destructuring of cities given that the explanatory capacity of both functions improves over time, both when other control variables are not included and when they are included.