Fertility choice, land, and the Malthusian hypothesis

In a standard overlapping generations growth model, with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility, the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita. The Malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per-capita, when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production. Even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children's welfare, the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult. Hence, if Malthus's "positive check' on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices, Malthus's pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true, even though his other assumptions hold. -from Authors

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Atmospheric microplasma-functionalized 3D microfluidic strips within dense carbon nanotube arrays confine Au nanodots for SERS sensing

An atmospheric microplasma jet produces three-dimensional (3D) microfluidic channels on dense arrays of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes, which confines Au nanodot aqueous solution. The resulting hybrid 3D nanostructure is exploited as an effective microscopic area-selective sensing platform based on surface-enhanced Raman scattering.

Management of a high grade pan stage schedule to reduce the steam consumption

MOST PAN stages in Australian factories use only five or six batch pans for the high grade massecuite production and operate these in a fairly rigid repeating production schedule. It is common that some of the pans are of large dropping capacity e.g. 150 to 240 t. Because of the relatively small number and large sizes of the pans, steam consumption varies widely through the schedule, often by ±30% about the mean value. Large fluctuations in steam consumption have implications for the steam generation/condensate management of the factory and the evaporators when bleed vapour is used. One of the objectives of a project to develop a supervisory control system for a pan stage is to (a) reduce the average steam consumption and (b) reduce the variation in the steam consumption. The operation of each of the high grade pans within the schedule at Macknade Mill was analysed to determine the idle (or buffer) time, time allocations for essential but unproductive operations (e.g. pan turn round, charging, slow ramping up of steam rates on pan start etc.), and productive time i.e. the time during boil-on of liquor and molasses feed. Empirical models were developed for each high grade pan on the stage to define the interdependence of the production rate and the evaporation rate for the different phases of each pan’s cycle. The data were analysed in a spreadsheet model to try to reduce and smooth the total steam consumption. This paper reports on the methodology developed in the model and the results of the investigations for the pan stage at Macknade Mill. It was found that the operation of the schedule severely restricted the ability to reduce the average steam consumption and smooth the steam flows. While longer cycle times provide increased flexibility the steam consumption profile was changed only slightly. The ability to cut massecuite on the run among pans, or the use of a high grade seed vessel, would assist in reducing the average steam consumption and the magnitude of the variations in steam flow.

Effect of soil properties on the response of pile to underground explosion

This paper develops and presents a fully coupled non-linear finite element procedure to treat the response of piles to ground shocks induced by underground explosions. The Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations are used in the study. Pile responses in four different soil types, viz, saturated soil, partially saturated soil and loose and dense dry soils are investigated and the results compared. Numerical results are validated by comparing with those from a standard design manual. Blast wave propagation in soils, horizontal pile deformations and damages in the pile are presented. The pile damage presented through plastic strain diagrams will enable the vulnerability assessment of the piles under the blast scenarios considered. The numerical results indicate that the blast performance of the piles embedded in saturated soil and loose dry soil are more severe than those in piles embedded in partially saturated soil and dense dry soil. Present findings should serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

Detection of sinkhole attack in wireless sensor networks

Generally wireless sensor networks rely of many-to-one communication approach for data gathering. This approach is extremely susceptible to sinkhole attack, where an intruder attracts surrounding nodes with unfaithful routing information, and subsequently presents selective forwarding or change the data that carry through it. A sinkhole attack causes an important threat to sensor networks and it should be considered that the sensor nodes are mostly spread out in open areas and of weak computation and battery power. In order to detect the intruder in a sinkhole attack this paper suggests an algorithm which firstly finds a group of suspected nodes by analyzing the consistency of data. Then, the intruder is recognized efficiently in the group by checking the network flow information. The proposed algorithm's performance has been evaluated by using numerical analysis and simulations. Therefore, accuracy and efficiency of algorithm would be verified.

Food talks back : Exploring the role of mobile applications in reducing domestic food wastage

Mitigating domestic food waste reduces its environmental and economic impacts. In our study, we have identified the use of mobile technology to support behaviour change as a key tool to assist the process of reducing food waste. This paper reports on three mobile applications designed to reduce domestic food waste: Fridge Pal, LeftoverSwap and EatChaFood. The paper examines how each app can influence consumer knowledge of domestic food supply, location, and literacy. We discuss our findings with respect to three considerations: (i) assisting with the user’s food supply and location knowledge; (ii) improving the user’s food literacy; (iii) facilitating social food sharing of excess food. We present new insights for mobile interventions that encourage changes towards more sustainable behaviours to reduce food waste.

Book review "Moving Innovation: A History of Computer Animation by Tom Sito , The MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, 2013"

As a Lecturer of Animation History and 3D Computer Animator, I received a copy of Moving Innovation: A History of Computer Animation by Tom Sito with an element of anticipation in the hope that this text would clarify the complex evolution of Computer Graphics (CG). Tom Sito did not disappoint, as this text weaves together the multiple development streams and convergent technologies and techniques throughout history that would ultimately result in modern CG. Universities now have students who have never known a world without computer animation and many students are younger than the first 3D CG animated feature film, Toy Story (1996); this text is ideal for teaching computer animation history and, as I would argue, it also provides a model for engaging young students in the study of animation history in general. This is because Sito places the development of computer animation within the context of its pre-digital ancestry and throughout the text he continues to link the discussion to the broader history of animation, its pioneers, technologies and techniques...

A new ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

The ambiguity acceptance test is an important quality control procedure in high precision GNSS data processing. Although the ambiguity acceptance test methods have been extensively investigated, its threshold determine method is still not well understood. Currently, the threshold is determined with the empirical approach or the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacking in theoretical basis, while the FF-approach is theoretical rigorous but computationally demanding. Hence, the key of the threshold determination problem is how to efficiently determine the threshold in a reasonable way. In this study, a new threshold determination method named threshold function method is proposed to reduce the complexity of the FF-approach. The threshold function method simplifies the FF-approach by a modeling procedure and an approximation procedure. The modeling procedure uses a rational function model to describe the relationship between the FF-difference test threshold and the integer least-squares (ILS) success rate. The approximation procedure replaces the ILS success rate with the easy-to-calculate integer bootstrapping (IB) success rate. Corresponding modeling error and approximation error are analysed with simulation data to avoid nuisance biases and unrealistic stochastic model impact. The results indicate the proposed method can greatly simplify the FF-approach without introducing significant modeling error. The threshold function method makes the fixed failure rate threshold determination method feasible for real-time applications.

Indirect effects of phytochemicals on offspring performance of Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Phytochemical lures such as methyl eugenol (ME) and cue-lure are used in the management of Bactrocera fruit flies for monitoring and control. These lures are not just attractants, but also trigger physiological changes in males that lead to enhanced mating success. Additionally, in the cue-lure-responsive Bactrocera tryoni, females mated with lure-fed males exhibit changes in fecundity, remating receptivity and longevity. While the lures show current generation effects, no research has been carried out on possible multigenerational effects, although such effects have been hypothesized within a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection model. In this study, we test for indirect, cross-generational effects of lure exposure in F1offspring of B. tryoni females mated with cue-lure-fed, zingerone-fed and lure-unfed (=control) males. The F1 attributes we recorded were immature development time, immature survival, adult survival and adult male lure foraging. No significant differences were found between treatments for any of the three life-history measurements, except that the offspring sired by zingerone-fed males had a longer egg development time than cue-lure and control offspring. However, indirect exposure to lures significantly enhanced the lure-foraging ability of F1 adult males. More offspring of cue-lure-fed males arrived at a lure source in both large flight cages and small laboratory cages over a 2-h period than did control males. The offspring of zingerone-fed males were generally intermediate between cue-lure and control offspring. This study provides the first evidence of a next generation effect of fruit fly male lures. While the results of this study support a ‘sexy-son’ sexual selection mechanism for the evolution of lure response in Bactrocera fruit flies, our discussion urges caution in interpreting our results in this way.

Usulan kerangka kebijakan penggunaan media sosial untuk perpustakaan perguruan tinggi

This study provides proposed core elements of social media policy that specifically designed for academic libraries.Evaluation of social media policies from five organisations and a review of the literature were used for data collection.There are 15 proposed core elements recommended: policy objectives; policy definition; scope of the policy;university’s vision and mission; policy users; disclaimer; confidentiality; copyright; privacy; workflow; publicinformation; the use of professional language; the accuracy of the information; rule for links; and university andlibrary’s voices. The results of this study provide important aspects in the development of social media policy. Theproposed core elements of the social media policy discussed in this paper is specifically designed for the academiclibraries, but can also be used for other library types. Kajian ini memuat usulan kerangka kebijakan penggunaan media sosial dari elemen-elemen inti yang disusun khusus untuk perpustakaan perguruan tinggi. Evaluasi kebijakan penggunaan media sosial dari lima organisasi dan kajian literatur digunakan untuk pengumpulan data. Ada 15 elemen inti kebijakan yang diusulkan, yaitu: tujuan kebijakan; definisi kebijakan; lingkup kebijakan; visi dan misi universitas; sasaran pengguna kebijakan; disclaimer; kerahasiaan; hak cipta; privasi; alur kerja; informasi publik; penggunaan bahasa professional; keakuratan informasi; kaidah tautan; serta suara universitas dan perpustakaan. Hasil kajian ini menyediakan aspek penting dalam pengembangan kebijakan penggunaan media sosial. Usulan elemen inti kebijakan yang diusulkan dalam kajian ini secara khusus dirancang untuk perpustakaan perguruan tinggi, tetapi dapat juga digunakan untuk perpustakaan jenis lainnya.

Classification of inventory data suit for managing Australian railway bridges

With a focus to optimising the life cycle performance of Australian Railway bridges, new bridge classification and environmental classification systems are proposed. The new bridge classification system is mainly to facilitate the implementation of novel Bridge Management System (BMS) which optimise the life cycle cost both at project level and network level while environment classification is mainly to improve accuracy of Remaining Service Potential (RSP) module of the proposed BMS. In fact, limited capacity of the existing BMS to trigger the maintenance intervention point is an indirect result of inadequacies of the existing bridge and environmental classification systems. The proposed bridge classification system permits to identify the intervention points based on percentage deterioration of individual elements and maintenance cost, while allowing performance based rating technique to implement for maintenance optimisation and prioritisation. Simultaneously, the proposed environment classification system will enhance the accuracy of prediction of deterioration of steel components.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.