The Disadvantage of winning an election

This paper analyzes the problem that an incumbent faces during the legislature when deciding how to react to popular initiatives or policy proposals coming from different sources. We argue that this potential source of electoral disadvantage that the incumbent obtains after being elected can jeopardize the reelection possibilities of the incumbent. We analyze the decision of the incumbent when facing reelection and we characterize the conditions under which the advantages that the incumbent obtains can overcome the disadvantages. Finally, we use the results of this analysis to discuss some implications of the use of mechanisms of direct democracy like referenda and popular assemblies on electoral competition.

Dengue in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1986-1998

This paper presents epidemiological, laboratory, and clinical data on 12 years of dengue virus activity in the State of Rio de Janeiro from the time the disease was first confirmed virologically in April 1986 through April 1998. DEN-1 and DEN-2 viruses are the serotypes circulating in the state and were responsible for the epidemics reported during the last 12 years. The results published here show both the impact of dengue virus infections on the population and laboratory advances that have improved dengue diagnosis.

Respiratory syncytial virus groups A and B in Porto Alegre, Brazil, from 1990 to 1995 and 1998

We analyzed the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) groups and their epidemiological pattern that were detected over the course of seven years in southern Brazil. The two RSV groups co-circulated each year, but frequencies of groups A and B varied both between and within yearly outbreaks. In 1991, group A predominated over group B (p=0.0016). RSV outbreaks analyzed showed a temperature-dependent pattern and no association with rainfall, similarly to other countries from southern South America. Knowledge of the variants is important in terms of both diagnosis and definition of a vaccine composition.

Valuing Diversity ... A Way Forward A Strategy For Nursing And Health Visiting 1998 (PDF 8.3 Mb)

Valuing Diversity ... A Way Forward A Strategy For Nursing And Health Visiting 1998

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Northern Ireland Hospital Statistics 1998/1999 to 2003/2004 (pdf 169 kb)

Key Points