Estimating equilibrium models of sorting across locations

While there is growing interest in measuring the size and scope of local spillovers, it is well understood that such spillovers cannot be distinguished from unobservable local attributes using solely the observed location decisions of individuals or firms. We propose an empirical strategy for recovering estimates of spillovers in the presence of unobserved local attributes for a broadly applicable class of equilibrium sorting models. Our approach relies on an IV strategy derived from the internal logic of the sorting model itself. We show practically how the strategy is implemented, provide intuition for our instruments, discuss the role of effective choice-set variation in identifying the model, and carry-out a series of Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate performance in small samples. © 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

If smoking increases absences, does quitting reduce them?

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the impact of smoking, quitting, and time since quit on absences from work. METHODS: Data from the nationally representative Tobacco Use Supplements of the 1992/93, 1995/96, and 1998/99 Current Population Surveys were used. The study included full time workers aged between 18-64 years, yielding a sample size of 383 778 workers. A binary indicator of absence due to sickness in the last week was analysed as a function of smoking status including time since quit for former smokers. Extensive demographic variables were included as controls in all models. RESULTS: In initial comparisons between current and former smokers, smoking increased absences, but quitting did not reduce them. However, when length of time since quit was examined, it was discovered that those who quit within the last year, and especially the last three months, had a much greater probability of absences than did current smokers. As the time since quitting increased, absences returned to a rate somewhere between that of never and current smokers. Interactions between health and smoking status significantly improved the fit of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers who quit reduced their absences over time but increase their absences immediately after quitting. Quitting ill may account for some but not all of this short run impact.

Dimensions, issues, and bills: Appropriations voting on the house floor

One of the fundamental findings in the congressional literature is that one or sometimes two dimensions can successfully describe roll-call voting. In this paper we investigate if we can reach the same conclusions about low dimensionality when we divide the roll-call agenda into subsets of relatively homogeneous subject matter. We are primarily interested in the degree to which the same ordering of representatives is yielded across these different groups of votes. To conduct our analysis we focus on all roll calls on the 13 annual appropriations bills across eight congresses. When we concentrate on these smaller issue areas, we find that voting is multidimensional and members do not vote in a consistent ideological fashion across all issue areas. Copyright © Southern Political Science Association 2010.

The cost of biopharmaceutical R&D: Is biotech different?

The costs of developing the types of new drugs that have been pursued by traditional pharmaceutical firms have been estimated in a number of studies. However, similar analyses have not been published on the costs of developing the types of molecules on which biotech firms have focused. This study represents a first attempt to get a sense for the magnitude of the R&D costs associated with the discovery and development of new therapeutic biopharmaceuticals (specifically, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies [mAbs]). We utilize drug-specific data on cash outlays, development times, and success in obtaining regulatory marketing approval to estimate the average pre-tax R&D resource cost for biopharmaceuticals up to the point of initial US marketing approval (in year 2005 dollars). We found average out-of-pocket (cash outlay) cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $198 million, $361 million, and $559 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Including the time costs associated with biopharmaceutical R&D, we found average capitalized cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $615 million, $626 million, and $1241 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Adjusting previously published estimates of R&D costs for traditional pharmaceutical firms by using past growth rates for pharmaceutical company costs to correspond to the more recent period to which our biopharmaceutical data apply, we found that total out-of-pocket cost per approved biopharmaceutical was somewhat lower than for the pharmaceutical company data ($559 million vs $672 million). However, estimated total capitalized cost per approved new molecule was nearly the same for biopharmaceuticals as for the adjusted pharmaceutical company data ($1241 million versus $1318 million). The results should be viewed with some caution for now given a limited number of biopharmaceutical molecules with data on cash outlays, different therapeutic class distributions for biopharmaceuticals and for pharmaceutical company drugs, and uncertainty about whether recent growth rates in pharmaceutical company costs are different from immediate past growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Entry and competition in generic biologics

Patents for several blockbuster biological products are expected to expire soon. The Food and Drug Administration is examining whether biologies can and should be treated like pharmaceuticals with regard to generics. In contrast with pharmaceuticals, which are manufactured through chemical synthesis, biologies are manufactured through fermentation, a process that is more variable and costly. Regulators might require extensive clinical testing of generic biologies to demonstrate equivalence to the branded product. The focus of the debate on generic biologies has been on legal and health concerns, but there are important economic implications. We combine a theoretical model of generic biologies with regression estimates from generic pharmaceuticals to estimate market entry and prices in the generic biologic market. We find that generic biologies will have high fixed costs from clinical testing and from manufacturing, so there will be less entry than would be expected for generic pharmaceuticals. With fewer generic competitors, generic biologies will be relatively close in price to branded biologies. Policy makers should be prudent in estimating financial benefits of generic biologies for consumers and payers. We also examine possible government strategies to promote generic competition. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association of fever and severe clinical course in bronchiolitis

Little attention has been given to the relation between fever and the severity of bronchiolitis. Therefore, the relation between fever and the clinical course of 90 infants (59 boys, 31 girls) hospitalised during one season with bronchiolitis was studied prospectively. Fever (defined as a single recording > 38.0°C or two successive recording > 37.8°C) was present in 28 infants. These infants were older (mean age, 5.3 v 4.0 months), had a longer mean hospital stay (4.2 v2.7 days), and a more severe clinical course (71.0%v 29.0%) than those infants without fever. Radiological abnormalities (collapse/consolidation) were found in 60.7% of the febrile group compared with 14.8% of the afebrile infants. These results suggest that monitoring of body temperature is important in bronchiolitis and that fever is likely to be associated with a more severe clinical course and radiological abnormalities.

An analysis of the passenger to cabin crew ratio and exit reliability based on past survivable aviation accidents

A hotly debated issue in the area of aviation safety is the number of cabin crew members required to evacuate an aircraft in the event of an emergency. Most countries regulate the minimum number required for the safe operation of an aircraft, but these rulings are based on little if any scientific evidence. Another issue of concern is the failure rate of exits and slides. This paper examines these issues using the latest version of Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge database AASK V4.0, which contains information from 105 survivable crashes and more than 2,000 survivors, including accounts from 155 cabin crew members.

Pseudo-spectral solutions for fluid flow and heat transfer in electro-metallurgical applications

The pseudo-spectral solution method offers a flexible and fast alternative to the more usual finite element and volume methods, particularly when the long-time transient behaviour of a system is of interest. The exact solution is obtained at grid collocation points leading to superior accuracy on modest grids. Furthermore, the grid can be freely adapted in time and space to particular flow conditions or geometric variations, especially useful where strongly coupled, time-dependent, multi-physics solutions are investigated. Examples include metallurgical applications involving the interaction of electromagnetic fields and conducting liquids with a free surface. The electromagnetic field determines the instantaneous liquid volume shape, which then affects the electromagnetic field. A general methodology of the pseudo-spectral approach is presented, with several instructive example applications: the aluminium electrolysis MHD problem, induction melting in a cold crucible and the dynamics of AC/DC magnetically levitated droplets. Finally, comparisons with available analytical solutions and to experimental measurements are discussed.

Urban labour, voice and legitimacy: economic development and the emergence of community unionism

Community unionism has emerged in the past decade as a growing strand of industrial relations research and is influencing trade union strategies for renewal. This article seeks to further develop the concept, while exploring the potential roles for unions in communities subject to projects of urban regeneration.

Ghost and self: Jung's paradigm shift and a response to Zinkin

Zinkin's lucid challenge to Jung makes perfect sense. Indeed, it is the implications of this `making sense' that this paper addresses. For Zinkin's characterization of the `self' takes it as a `concept' requiring coherence; a variety of abstract non-contextual knowledge that itself has a mythical heritage. Moreover, Zinkin's refinement of Jung seeks to make his work fit for the scientific paradigm of modernity. In turn, modernity's paradigm owes much to Newton's notion of knowledge via reductionism. Here knowledge or investigation is divided up into the smallest possible units with the aim of eventually putting it all together into `one' picture of scientific truth. Unfortunately, `reductionism' does not do justice to the resonant possibilities of Jung's writing. These look forward to a new scientific paradigm of the twenty-first century, of the interactive `field', emergence and complexity theory. The paper works paradoxically by discovering Zinkin's `intersubjective self' after all, in two undervalued narratives by Jung, his doctoral thesis and a short late ghost story. However, in the ambivalences and radical fictional experimentation of these fascinating texts can be discerned an-Other self, one both created and found. [From the Publisher]

Distress in children with learning disabilities at a respite unit: perspective on their experiences

Numerous studies have investigated the benefits of respite to families with a disabled child. Far fewer have examined the effects on the child and none have systematically compared information about this from different sources. Reports of behavioural reactions and views on distress were gathered from parents, teachers and respite staff. Children were also asked for their views. Over half the children (54%) were reported to show medium or strong negative reactions lasting for 1 or more days by a parent or teacher. Reported reactions varied widely between home and school and no concordance was found between parents, teachers and respite staff groups regarding distress. Some children's views differed from those of their parent or teacher. The findings highlight the extent of differences in perspectives and suggest the need for greater awareness of the possible distress to children attending respite. This is discussed in relation to factors such as the potential conflict of interests between parents and children, communication and behavioural difficulties, and the context in which the child is observed.

To the editor of BJLD

[Letter to the editor of BJLD]