Efficiency and productivity of Singapore’s manufacturing sector 2001-2010: An analysis using Simar and Wilson’s (2007) bootstrapped truncated approach

This paper seeks to explain the lagging productivity in Singapore’s manufacturing noted in the statements of the Economic Strategies Committee Report 2010. Two methods are employed: the Malmquist productivity to measure total factor productivity change and Simar and Wilson’s (J Econ, 136:31–64, 2007) bootstrapped truncated regression approach. In the first stage, the nonparametric data envelopment analysis is used to measure technical efficiency. To quantify the economic drivers underlying inefficiencies, the second stage employs a bootstrapped truncated regression whereby bias-corrected efficiency estimates are regressed against explanatory variables. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to efficiency change with no technical progress. Most industries were technically inefficient throughout the period except for ‘Pharmaceutical Products’. Sources of efficiency were attributed to quality of worker and flexible work arrangements while incessant use of foreign workers lowered efficiency.

Do balanced skills help nascent entrepreneurs to make progress in the venture creation process?

We analyze longitudinal data on innovative start-up projects and apply Lazear’s jack-of-all-trades theory to investigate the effect of nascent entrepreneurs’ balanced skills on their progress in the venture creation process. Our results suggest that those nascent entrepreneurs who exhibit a sufficiently broad set of skills undertake more gestation activities towards an operational new venture. This supports the notion that a balanced skill set is an important determinant of entrepreneurial market entry.

Creative industries and innovation in a knowledge economy

The cultural and creative industries contribute to the knowledge economy by their role in reproducing cultural knowledge and through provision of entertainment, experience and leisure goods with cultural content, for which they are widely acknowledged as suffering serious market failure problems (Baumol and Bowen, 1966; Throsby and Withers, 1979). But they also contribute to the innovation process, an aspect that has only recently been appreciated. Specifically, the creative industries are a driver of the knowledge economy by their contribution to the innovation process on the demand side of consumer uptake of new ideas and by their facilitation of consumer-producer interaction. The creative industries are, in this respect, a legitimate part of the innovation system of a knowledge economy.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Nerves of steel? Stress, work performance and elite athletes

There is a notable shortage of empirical research directed at measuring the magnitude and direction of stress effects on performance in a controlled environment. One reason for this is the inherent difficulties in identifying and isolating direct performance measures for individuals. Additionally, most traditional work environments contain a multitude of exogenous factors impacting individual performance, but controlling for all such factors is generally unfeasible (omitted variable bias). Moreover, instead of asking individuals about their self-reported stress levels, we observe workers’ behaviour in situations that can be classified as stressful. For this reason, we have stepped outside the traditional workplace in an attempt to gain greater controllability of these factors using the sports environment as our experimental space. We empirically investigate the relationship between stress and performance, in an extreme pressure situation (football penalty kicks) in a winner take all sporting environment (FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Cup competitions). Specifically, we examine all the penalty shootouts between 1976 and 2008 covering in total 16 events. The results indicate that extreme stressors can have a positive or negative impact on individuals’ performance. On the other hand, more commonly experienced stressors do not affect professionals’ performances.

The creative instability hypothesis

This paper provides an analysis of why many ‘stars’ tend to fade away rather than enjoying ongoing branding advantages from their reputations. We propose a theory of market overshooting in creative industries that is based on Schumpeterian competition between producers to maintain the interest of boundedly rational fans. As creative producers compete by offering further artistic novelty, this escalation of product complexity eventually leads to overshooting. We propose this as a theory of endogenous cycles in the creative industries.