The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Dyspnea-related cues engage the prefrontal cortex - evidence from functional brain imaging in COPD

Dyspnea is the major source of disability in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In COPD, environmental cues (e.g. the prospect of having to climb stairs) become associated with dyspnea, and may trigger dyspnea even before physical activity commences. We hypothesised that brain activation relating to such cues would be different between COPD patients and healthy controls, reflecting greater engagement of emotional mechanisms in patients. Methods: Using FMRI, we investigated brain responses to dyspnea-related word cues in 41 COPD patients and 40 healthy age-matched controls. We combined these findings with scores of self-report questionnaires thus linking the FMRI task with clinically relevant measures. This approach was adapted from studies in pain that enables identification of brain networks responsible for pain processing despite absence of a physical challenge. Results: COPD patients demonstrate activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) which correlated with the visual analogue scale (VAS) response to word cues. This activity independently correlated with patient-reported questionnaires of depression, fatigue and dyspnea vigilance. Activation in the anterior insula, lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) and precuneus correlated with the VAS dyspnea scale but not the questionnaires. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that engagement of the brain's emotional circuitry is important for interpretation of dyspnea-related cues in COPD, and is influenced by depression, fatigue, and vigilance. A heightened response to salient cues is associated with increased symptom perception in chronic pain and asthma, and our findings suggest such mechanisms may be relevant in COPD.

Bathymetric distribution of the shrimp Rimapenaeus constrictus (Stimpson, 1874) (Decapoda, Penaeidae) in two locations off the southeastern Brazilian coast

The distribution of benthic organisms is directly or indirectly associated with the physical and chemical properties of the water and sediment. This study analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of Rimapenaeus constrictus in unconsolidated sublittoral sediments of two areas off the northern coast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We also analysed the association of environmental factors with the occurrence of this species. Shrimp were collected monthly from July 2001 to June 2003, with a fishing boat equipped with two double-rig nets, in the regions of Ubatuba (UBA) and Caraguatatuba (CA). The collections were made during the day, along five transects with mean depths of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 m. We obtained a total of 5478 individuals, 3403 (UBA = 2025 and CA = 1378) during the first year, and 2075 (UBA = 875 and CA = 1200) during the second year. Significant differences in abundance were observed in relation to depth, season of the year, and also in the interaction between region and depth. Higher abundances occurred in fall and winter, independently of the sampling year. The largest numbers of shrimp were caught on the 20-m transect in UBA and the 25-m transect in CA. It is concluded that the distribution pattern of this species is closely related to environmental factors, and the temperature of the bottom water and the sediment texture were the most significant variables affecting the distribution.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spectroscopic investigation of the interactions between emeraldine base polyaniline and Eu(III) ions

The interactions of emeraldine base form of polyaniline (EB-PANI) and Eu(III) ions in 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinone (NMP) solution and in films have been investigated by UV-vis-NIR, resonance Raman. luminescence and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopies. These spectroscopic techniques allowed to characterize quinone and semiquinone segments in the polymeric chains. and the oxidation state of europium ions in Eu-PANI samples. For high values of Eu(III)/N molar ratio (24/1) the presence of a weak polaronic absorption band at 980 nm in UV-vis-NIR spectrum and the observation of bands at 1330 and 1378 (nu(center dot)(C-N+)) cm(-1) due to emeraldine salt in the Raman spectrum at 1064 nm indicate a low doping degree. Oxidation of EB-PANI to pernigraniline base (PB-PANI) occurs in diluted solutions. The experimental data showed that the solvent plays an important role on the nature of formed species. The narrow EPR signal at g = 2.006 (line width 8G) confirms the presence of PANI radical cations in Eu-PANI film. The absence of broad signal characteristic of Eu(II) in EPR spectrum suggested that europium ions are primarily at Eu(III) oxidation state. The luminescence spectra of Eu-PANI film presented emission bands at 405 and 418 nm assigned to PANI moieties and bands at 594,615 and 701 nm assigned to (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) (J = 1, 2 and 4, respectively) transitions of Eu(III). EPR and photoluminescence data confirm that europium ions are mainly in Eu(III) oxidation state in Eu(III)/PANI films. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analys av www.ltdalarna.se : underlag för vidareutveckling

Landstinget Dalarna har en webbplats som är tre år gammal och som nu ska vidareutvecklas till det bättre och anpassas efter de behov och önskemål som besökarna har på webbplatsen samt efter 24-timmarswebbens riktlinjer. Därför fick vi i uppdrag av landstinget att ta reda på vad besökarna har för krav på information och vad de anser om webbplatsen. Uppdraget var också att ta reda på vilka målgrupperna är, vilken den "typiske" surfaren är samt att titta på vad konkurrenterna, andra landsting, har på sina webbplatser.I detta examensarbete har vi gjort en förändringsanalys, en målgruppsanalys och en konkurrentanalys. För att få veta vad besökarna anser om webbplatsen, vad de har för behov och önskemål samt för att få veta vilka besökarna är gjordes ett webbformulär som lade ut på webbplatsen. Vi gjorde även enkäter som delades ut och utförde intervjuer.Som resultat av vårt examensarbete har vi kommit fram till att besökare har stora krav på en webbplats. De vill mötas av en snygg och enkel webbplats där de även kan ha möjlighet att utföra vissa ärenden på egen hand. För att möta besökarnas önskemål och behov har vi i vår förändringsanalys kommit fram till åtgärder som behöver göras på webbplatsen. Målgruppsanalysen resulterade i målgrupper indelade utifrån ålder: under 20, 20-34, 35-49, 50-65 och över 65. Den typiske surfaren är en kvinna mellan 35-49 år, högskoleutbildad, anställd inom landstingssektorn, har tillgång till Internet hemma och på jobbet och besöker Internet i princip dagligen. Konkurrentanalysen visade hur olika webbplatserna kan vara och vad som gör att man trivs/inte trivs med att besöka den. Av de tre webbplatserna som vi analyserad så var det ingen som uppfyllde alla de riktlinjer vi tagit med ur 24-timmarswebbens riktlinjer.

O uso do computador na orcamentacao e controle de custos na construcao : estudo de casos

O trabalho relata o papel do orçamento como documento mediador entre empresa e cliente e ainda, como fonte de informações durante a obra, destacando as principais dificuldades na tarefa de orçar.

Resposta de mudas de goiabeira a doses e modos de aplicação de fertilizante fosfatado

O presente trabalho objetivou avaliar o desenvolvimento de mudas de goiabeira em resposta a doses e modos de aplicação de fertilizante fosfatado. As mudas de goiabeira foram transplantadas em conjuntos de vasos (sacos plásticos, 18 x 28 cm) geminados, contendo em cada lado 2,8 dm³ do subsolo de um Argissolo (P resina = 1 mg dm-3), de modo que a metade do sistema radicular ficasse em cada vaso. Usou-se um fatorial 2 x 3 x 2 + 1 (testemunha, sem fósforo), em 5 blocos casualizados. As doses de 70; 140 e 280 mg de P dm-3 de solo, na forma de superfosfato triplo, foram aplicadas de dois modos diferentes com relação ao solo (distribuído em todo o volume do solo ou localizado a 1/3 de profundidade) e dois modos diferentes com relação às raízes (dividindo-se a dose igualmente entre os dois vasos do conjunto ou aplicando-se a dose total em um único vaso). Cem dias após o transplante, verificou-se maior acúmulo de P e maior produção de matéria seca nas plantas que receberam adubação fosfatada. As mudas de goiabeira responderam positivamente à adubação fosfatada, sendo a dose próxima de 100 mg de P dm-3 de solo suficiente para o bom desenvolvimento das plantas. Doses acima de 200 mg de P dm-3 promoveram redução do crescimento das mudas de goiabeira. A disponibilização de fósforo à metade ou a todo o sistema radicular da goiabeira não afetou o suprimento desse nutriente às mudas e tampouco o seu desenvolvimento. A aplicação do adubo fosfatado distribuído em todo o volume de solo no vaso proporcionou maior desenvolvimento do sistema radicular e menor desenvolvimento da parte aérea das mudas de goiabeira, comparado à aplicação localizada do adubo a 1/3 de profundidade.

Relationship of upper-limb and thoracic muscle strength to 6-min walk distance in COPD patients

Study objectives: This study was developed to investigate the influence of thoracic and upperlimb muscle function on 6-min walk distance (6MWD) in patients with COPD.Design: A prospective, cross-sectional study.Setting: the pulmonary rehabilitation center of a university hospital.Patients: Thirty-eight patients with mild to very severe COPD were evaluated.Measurements and results: Pulmonary function and baseline dyspnea index (BDI) were assessed, handgrip strength, maximal inspiratory pressure (Pimax), and 6MWD were measured, and the one-repetition maximum (1RM) was determined for each of four exercises (bench press, lat pull down, leg extension, and leg press) performed on gymnasium equipment. Quality of life was assessed using the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). We found statistically significant positive correlations between 6MWD and body weight (r = 0.32; p < 0.05), BDI (r = 0.50; p < 0.01), FEV, (r = 0.33; p < 0.05), PImax (r = 0.53; p < 0.01), and all values of 1RM. A statistically significant negative correlation was observed between 6MWD and dyspnea at the end of the 6-min walk test (r = -0.29; p < 0.05), as well as between 6MWD and the SGRQ activity domain (r = -0.45; p < 0.01) and impact domain (r = -0.34; p < 0.05) and total score (r = -0.40; p < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis selected body weight, BDI, Pimax, and lat pull down IRM as predictive factors for 6MWD (R-2 = 0.589).Conclusions: the results of this study showed the importance of the skeletal musculature of the thorax and upper limbs in submaximal exercise tolerance and could open new perspectives for training programs designed to improve functional activity in COPD patients.

Armadilhas cognitivas: o caso das omissões na gênese dos acidentes de trabalho

Neste artigo discute-se o tema das omissões na gênese de acidentes do trabalho, tendo como referência contribuições de James Reason. Os autores descrevem três acidentes de trabalho ocorridos em atividades de manutenção, e nos quais a omissão de passos na execução da atividade foi apontada como causa nas análises efetuadas pelas empresas, acarretando atribuição de culpa aos acidentados. Nos três casos, a análise efetuada pelos autores revelou que, na seqüência de passos da atividade havia presença simultânea de pelo menos quatro das características apontadas por Reason como geradoras de omissões, caracterizando as denominadas armadilhas cognitivas.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.