Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

Panel studies of new venture creation: a methods-focused review and suggestions for future research

Longitudinal panel studies of large, random samples of business start-ups captured at the pre-operational stage allow researchers to address core issues for entrepreneurship research, namely, the processes of creation of new business ventures as well as their antecedents and outcomes. Here, we perform a methods-orientated review of all 83 journal articles that have used this type of data set, our purpose being to assist users of current data sets as well as designers of new projects in making the best use of this innovative research approach. Our review reveals a number of methods issues that are largely particular to this type of research. We conclude that amidst exemplary contributions, much of the reviewed research has not adequately managed these methods challenges, nor has it made use of the full potential of this new research approach. Specifically, we identify and suggest remedies for context-specific and interrelated methods challenges relating to sample definition, choice of level of analysis, operationalization and conceptualization, use of longitudinal data and dealing with various types of problematic heterogeneity. In addition, we note that future research can make further strides towards full utilization of the advantages of the research approach through better matching (from either direction) between theories and the phenomena captured in the data, and by addressing some under-explored research questions for which the approach may be particularly fruitful.

Can the contra-lateral limb be used as a control with respect to analyses of bone remodelling?

Bone loss may result from remodelling initiated by implant stress protection. Quantifying remodelling requires bone density distributions which can be obtained from computed tomography scans. Pre-operative scans of large animals however are rarely possible. This study aimed to determine if the contra-lateral bone is a suitable control for the purpose of quantifying bone remodelling. CT scans of 8 pairs of ovine tibia were used to determine the likeness of left and right bones. The deviation between the outer surfaces of the bone pairs was used to quantify geometric similarity. The density differences were determined by dividing the bones into discrete volumes along the shaft of the tibia. Density differences were also determined for fractured and contra-lateral bone pairs to determine the magnitude of implant related remodelling. Left and right ovine tibiae were found to have a high degree of similarity with differences of less than 1.0 mm in the outer surface deviation and density difference of less than 5% in over 90% of the shaft region. The density differences (10–40%) as a result of implant related bone remodelling were greater than left-right differences. Therefore, for the purpose of quantifying bone remodelling in sheep, the contra-lateral tibia may be considered an alternative to a pre-operative control.

The impact of online reviews on hotel booking intentions and trust

A growing reliance on the Internet as an information source when making choices about tourism products raises the need for more research into electronic word of mouth. Within a hotel context, this study explores the role of four key factors that influence perceptions of trust and consumer choice. An experimental design is used to investigate four independent variables: the target of the review (core or interpersonal); overall valence of a set of reviews (positive or negative); framing of reviews (what comes first: negative or positive information); and whether or not a consumer generated numerical rating is provided together with the written text. Consumers seem to be more influenced by early negative information, especially when the overall set of reviews is negative. However, positively framed information together with numerical rating details increases both booking intentions and consumer trust. The results suggest that consumers tend to rely on easy-to-process information, when evaluating a hotel based upon reviews. Higher levels of trust are also evident when a positively framed set of reviews focused on interpersonal service.

Diversity of community acquired MRSA carrying the PVL gene in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia

Emergence and dissemination of community acquired methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) strains are being reported with increasing frequency in Australia and worldwide. These strains of CA-MRSA are genetically diverse and distinct in Australia. Genotyping of CA-MRSA using eight highly-discriminatory single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring the dissemination of these strains in the community. In this study, a SNP genotyping method was used to investigate the molecular epidemiology of 249 community acquired non-multiresistant MRSA (nm-MRSA) isolates over a 12-month period from routine diagnostic specimens. A real-time PCR for the presence of Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) was also performed on these isolates. The CA-MRSA isolates were sourced from a large private laboratory in Brisbane, Australia that serves a wide geographic region encompassing Queensland and Northern New South Wales. This study identified 16 different STs and 98% of the CA-MRSA isolates were positive for the PVL gene. The most common ST was ST93 with 41% of isolates testing positive for this clone.

Hylaluronan-based heparin-incorporated hydrogels for generation of axially vascularized bioartificial bone tissues : in vitro and in vivo evaluation in a PLDLLA-TCP-PCL-composite system

Smart matrices are required in bone tissueengineered grafts that provide an optimal environment for cells and retain osteo-inductive factors for sustained biological activity. We hypothesized that a slow-degrading heparin-incorporated hyaluronan (HA) hydrogel can preserve BMP-2; while an arterio–venous (A–V) loop can support axial vascularization to provide nutrition for a bioartificial bone graft. HA was evaluated for osteoblast growth and BMP-2 release. Porous PLDLLA–TCP–PCL scaffolds were produced by rapid prototyping technology and applied in vivo along with HA-hydrogel, loaded with either primary osteoblasts or BMP-2. A microsurgically created A–V loop was placed around the scaffold, encased in an isolation chamber in Lewis rats. HA-hydrogel supported growth of osteoblasts over 8 weeks and allowed sustained release of BMP-2 over 35 days. The A–V loop provided an angiogenic stimulus with the formation of vascularized tissue in the scaffolds. Bone-specific genes were detected by real time RT-PCR after 8 weeks. However, no significant amount of bone was observed histologically. The heterotopic isolation chamber in combination with absent biomechanical stimulation might explain the insufficient bone formation despite adequate expression of bone-related genes. Optimization of the interplay of osteogenic cells and osteo-inductive factors might eventually generate sufficient amounts of axially vascularized bone grafts for reconstructive surgery.

Weekly activity-travel behaviour in rural Northern Ireland : differences by context and socio-demographic

Despite a wide variation in access to goods and services between rural areas, common policy interventions are often proposed in Northern Ireland. Questions remain as to the level and form of policy differentiation that is required, if any, both within and between different rural areas. This issue is investigated in this paper through the analysis of activity-travel patterns of individuals living in two rural areas with different levels of area accessibility and area mobility. Three focus groups, 299 questionnaires and 89 activity-travel diaries for 7 days were collected for individuals from these areas. Regression analyses were employed to explore the degree to which different factors influence activity travel behaviour. The results indicate that individuals from rural areas with a higher level of accessibility are more integrated within their local community and as a result, are potentially less at risk of being excluded from society due to immobility. Differences, however, were also found between different groups within an area (e.g. non-car owning individuals who were more reliant on walking, and low-income individuals who made trips of a shorter distance). Based on the study findings and a review of existing policies, this research highlights the need to tailor policy responses to reflect the particular sets of circumstances exhibited in different areas.

Strategies for managing osteoarthritis

Background Although there are recommendations for the management of osteoarthritis (OA), little is known about how people with OA actually manage this chronic condition. Purpose The aims of this study were to identify the non-pharmacological and pharmacological therapies most commonly used for the management of hip or knee OA, in a community-based sample of adults, and to compare these with evidence-based recommendations. Methods A questionnaire was mailed to 2200 adult members of Arthritis Queensland living in Brisbane, Australia. It included questions about OA symptoms, management therapies and demographic characteristics. Results Of the 485 participants (192 men, 293 women) with hip or knee OA who completed the questionnaire, most had mild to moderate symptoms. Ninety-six percent of participants (aged 27–95 years) reported using at least one non-pharmacological therapy, and 78% reported using at least one pharmacological therapy. The most common currently used non-pharmacological strategy was range-of-motion exercises (men 52%, women 61%, p=0.05) and the most common frequently used pharmacological strategy was glucosamine/chondroitin (men 51%, women 60%, ns). For the most highly recommended strategies, 65% of men and 54% of women had never attended an information/education course (p=0.04), and fewer than half (46% of women and 42% of men, p=0.03) were frequent users of anti-inflammatory agents. Conclusion The findings suggest that many people with knee or hip OA do not follow the most highly endorsed of the OARSI (Osteoarthritis Research Society International) recommendations for management of OA. Health professionals should be encouraged to recommend evidence-based therapies to their patients.

International regional planning educational experience : learnings from Malaysia, Korea and Turkey study trips

In an era of rapidly changing economic, social and environmental conditions, urban and regional planning education must be resilient, innovative and able to deal with the complex political and socio-economic fabric of post-modern cities. As a consequence, urban and regional planning education plays a fundamental role in educating and forming planning practitioners that will be able to tackle such complexity. However, not many tertiary education institutions provide a trans-cultural engagement opportunity for students, where the need to internationalise planning education has been widely recognised worldwide. The aim of this paper is to communicate the findings of three overseas study trips (Kuala Lumpur-Malaysia, Daejeon-Korea, Istanbul and Gallipoli-Turkey) that students of Queensland University of Technology are taken to where these study trips trailed the provision of an innovative tertiary education experience of teaching regional planning in an international context. The findings of the pedagogic analyses of the study reveal that the exposure of students to different planning processes and practices give them a new outlook on what they knew from their own country and provide them with useful insights on international planning issues and cultural differences and barriers.

Out of time: The moral temporality of sex, crime and taboo

This paper discusses the relationship between law and morality. Morality does not necessarily coincide with the law, but it contributes to it. An act may be legal but nevertheless considered to be immoral in a particular society. For example, the use of pornography may be considered by many to be immoral. Nevertheless, the sale and distribution of non-violent, non-child related, sexually explicit material is legal (or regulated) in many jurisdictions. Many laws are informed by, and even created by, morality. This paper examines the historical influence of morality on the law and on society in general. It aims to develop a theoretical framework for examining legal moralism and the social construction of morality and crime as well as the relationship between sex, desire and taboo. Here, we refer to the moral temporality of sex and taboo, which examines the way in which moral judgments about sex and what is considered taboo change over time, and the kinds of justifications that are employed in support of changing moralities. It unpacks the way in which abstract and highly tenuous concepts such as ‘‘desire’’, ‘‘art’’ and ‘‘entertainment’’ may be ‘‘out of time’’ with morality, and how morality shapes laws over time, fabricating justifications from within socially constructed communities of practice. This theoretical framework maps the way in which these concepts have become temporally dominated by heteronormative structures such as the family, marriage, reproduction, and longevity. It is argued that the logic of these structures is inexorably tied to the heterosexual life-path, charting individual lives and relationships through explicit phases of childhood, adolescence and adulthood that, in the twenty-first century, delimit the boundaries of taboo surrounding sex more than any other time in history.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the antimonate mineral bindheimite Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH)

Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has been used to characterise the antimonate mineral bindheimite Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH). The mineral is characterised by an intense Raman band at 656 cm-1 assigned to SbO stretching vibrations. Other lower intensity bands at 664, 749 and 814 cm-1 are also assigned to stretching vibrations. This observation suggests the non-equivalence of SbO units in the structure. Low intensity Raman bands at 293, 312 and 328 cm-1 are assigned to the OSbO bending vibrations. Infrared bands at 979, 1008, 1037 and 1058 cm-1 may be assigned to δ OH deformation modes of SbOH units. Infrared bands at 1603 and 1640 cm-1 are assigned to water bending vibrations, suggesting that water is involved in the bindheimite structure. Broad infrared bands centred upon 3250 cm-1 supports this concept. Thus the true formula of bindheimite is questioned and probably should be written as Pb2Sb2O6(O,OH,H2O)

A hybrid radiation detector for simultaneous spatial and temporal dosimetry

In this feasibility study an organic plastic scintillator is calibrated against ionisation chamber measurements and then embedded in a polymer gel dosimeter to obtain a quasi-4D experimental measurement of a radiation field. This hybrid dosimeter was irradiated with a linear accelerator, with temporal measurements of the dose rate being acquired by the scintillator and spatial measurements acquired with the gel dosimeter. The detectors employed in this work are radiologically equivalent; and we show that neither detector perturbs the intensity of the radiation field of the other. By employing these detectors in concert, spatial and temporal variations in the radiation intensity can now be detected and gel dosimeters can be calibrated for absolute dose from a single irradiation.

Effect of biochar amendment on the soil-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases from an intensive subtropical pasture in northern New South Wales, Australia

We assessed the effect of biochar incorporation into the soil on the soil-atmosphere exchange of the greenhouse gases (GHG) from an intensive subtropical pasture. For this, we measured N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions with high temporal resolution from April to June 2009 in an existing factorial experiment where cattle feedlot biochar had been applied at 10 t ha-1 in November 2006. Over the whole measurement period, significant emissions of N2O and CO2 were observed, whereas a net uptake of CH4 was measured. N2O emissions were found to be highly episodic with one major emission pulse (up to 502 µg N2O-N m-2 h 1) following heavy rainfall. There was no significant difference in the net flux of GHGs from the biochar amended vs. the control plots. Our results demonstrate that intensively managed subtropical pastures on ferrosols in northern New South Wales of Australia can be a significant source of GHG. Our hypothesis that the application of biochar would lead to a reduction in emissions of GHG from soils was not supported in this field assessment. Additional studies with longer observation periods are needed to clarify the long term effect of biochar amendment on soil microbial processes and the emission of GHGs under field conditions.

QoC Elastic Scheduling for Real-Time Control Systems

The elastic task model, a significant development in scheduling of real-time control tasks, provides a mechanism for flexible workload management in uncertain environments. It tells how to adjust the control periods to fulfill the workload constraints. However, it is not directly linked to the quality-of-control (QoC) management, the ultimate goal of a control system. As a result, it does not tell how to make the best use of the system resources to maximize the QoC improvement. To fill in this gap, a new feedback scheduling framework, which we refer to as QoC elastic scheduling, is developed in this paper for real-time process control systems. It addresses the QoC directly through embedding both the QoC management and workload adaptation into a constrained optimization problem. The resulting solution for period adjustment is in a closed-form expressed in QoC measurements, enabling closed-loop feedback of the QoC to the task scheduler. Whenever the QoC elastic scheduler is activated, it improves the QoC the most while still meeting the system constraints. Examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the QoC elastic scheduling.

Developing a multidimensional scale for ethical decision making

This article reports on the development of the managerial ethical profile (MEP) scale. The MEP scale is a multilevel, self-reporting scale measuring the perceived influence that different dimensions of common ethical frameworks have on managerial decision making. The MEP scale measures on eight subscales: economic egoism, reputational egoism, act utilitarianism, rule utilitarianism, self-virtue of self, virtue of others, act deontology, and rule deontology. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to provide evidence of scale validity. Future research needs and the value of this measure for business ethics are discussed.