Sugarcane (Saccharum X officinarum): A Reference Study for the Regulation of Genetically Modified Cultivars in Brazil

Global interest in sugarcane has increased significantly in recent years due to its economic impact on sustainable energy production. Sugarcane breeding and better agronomic practices have contributed to a huge increase in sugarcane yield in the last 30 years. Additional increases in sugarcane yield are expected to result from the use of biotechnology tools in the near future. Genetically modified (GM) sugarcane that incorporates genes to increase resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses could play a major role in achieving this goal. However, to bring GM sugarcane to the market, it is necessary to follow a regulatory process that will evaluate the environmental and health impacts of this crop. The regulatory review process is usually accomplished through a comparison of the biology and composition of the GM cultivar and a non-GM counterpart. This review intends to provide information on non-GM sugarcane biology, genetics, breeding, agronomic management, processing, products and byproducts, as well as the current technologies used to develop GM sugarcane, with the aim of assisting regulators in the decision-making process regarding the commercial release of GM sugarcane cultivars. © 2011 The Author(s).

Cover crops and no-till effects on physical fractions of soil organic matter

Physical fractions (free light fraction, intra-aggregate light fraction and heavy fraction) of soil organic matter (SOM) are good indicators of soil quality for sustainable land use. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of cover crops on total organic carbon (TOC) and physical fractions of soil organic matter in soil under a no-tillage system (NTS) and a conventional tillage system (CTS, one plowing and two disking). A three-year field experiment was carried out as a cover crop-rice (Oryza sativa)-cover crop-rice rotation. Treatments included cover crops (Panicum maximum, Brachiaria ruziziensis, Brachiaria brizantha, and pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), fallow, till or no till. The SOM was physically fractionated in free light fraction (FLF), intra-aggregates light fraction (IALF) and heavy fraction (HF). The levels of C in whole soil were also evaluated, as well as C in the light fractions (FLF+IALF) and in the HF. Results indicated that concentrations of C in the FLF and IALF in surface soils (0-0.05m) were much higher (10.8 and 1.95gkg-1, respectively) than that in the 0.05-0.1m soil depth (7.68 and 1.54gkg-1, respectively) and in the 0.1-0.2m soil depth (4.98 and 1.24gkg-1, respectively). The NTS resulted in higher levels of FLF (12.2gkg-1) and IALF (2.19gkg-1) than with CTS (1.37-7.30gkg-1). Millet had the highest C (19.5gkg-1) and N (1.1gkg-1) concentrations in soil. There was an accumulation of TOC and total N in the surface soil with cover crops, and concentrations of TOC were higher in the HF (79.0%) than in the light fractions (21.0%). Although SOM changed little during the two years of this experiment, the various C fractions were significantly affected by the tillage treatments. We conclude that SOM physical fractionation allowed seeing significant differences caused by the soil management in the organic matter dynamics in a short period of time. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Process for genetically engineering acidophilic bacteria and constructing a transformation vector

The present invention describes a method for transforming chemolithotrophic acidophilic bacteria using electroporation technology. The proposed method allows transforming a bacterial line using a transformation vector, the pAF vector, which contains an origin of vegetative replication that allows the vector to replicate inside the bacteria without altering the natural physiological functions of the latter. Also disclosed is the use of the bacteria modified according to the invention in bioleaching processes of sulphated copper, gold, uranium, nickel, zinc and cobalt ore, inter alia.

Alternative methods for detecting soybean seeds genetically modified for resistance to herbicide glyphosate

The objective of this study was to verify application of two methodologies: substrate moistened with herbicide solution (SM) and immersion of seeds in herbicide solution (IH) for detecting soybean seeds genetically modified. For this, non-transgenic and transgenic soybean seeds, harvested in the 2008/2009 crop seasons were used. The treatments with substrate moistened were: SM1) 0.03% herbicide solution, at 25 ºC, with evaluation in the sixth day (hs -0.03% -25 ºC, 6th d); SM2) HS -0.03% -35 ºC, 5th d; SM3) HS -0.03% - 40 ºC, 5th d; and SM4) hs -0.06% -5 ºC, 5th d. In the methodology of immersion of seeds the following treatments were performed: IH1) seed immersion in a 0.6% herbicide solution, at 25 ºC, for 1 h, (si -0.06% -25 ºC, 1 h; IH2) si -0.06% - 35 ºC, 30 min.; IH3) si -0.06% -40 ºC, 30 min.; IH4) si -0.12% -35 ºC, 30 min.; and IH5) si -0.12% -40 ºC, 30 min. Bioassays allow detecting soybean seeds tolerant to glyphosate herbicide within five days. The seeds of non-genetically modified and genetically modified soybean cultivars may be easily distinguished through the treatments SM2 and SM4 of the moistened substrate methodology; and treatments IH3, IH4, and IH5 of seed immersion methodology. Both methodologies are easily feasible, practical, and applicable in seed analysis laboratories, once do not require special equipments.

Greenhouse gas balance associated with sugarcane production in South-Central Brazil, considering the management and expansion

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Surface plasmon fluorescence spectroscopy and microscopy studies for biomolecular interaction studies

ABSTARCT Biotechnology has enabled the modification of agricultural materials in a very precise way. Crops have been modified through the insertion of new traits or the inhibition of existing gene functions, named Genetically Modified Organism (GMO), and resulted in improved tolerance of herbicide and/or increased resistance against pests, viruses and fungi. Commercial cultivation of GMO started in 1996 and increased rapidly in 2003 according to a recently released report by the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (ISAAA), depicted continuing consumer resistance in Europe and other part of the world. Upon these developments, the European Union regulations mandated labeling of GMOs containing food and as a consequence, the labeling of GMO containing product in the case of exceeding the1% threshold of alien DNA is required. The aim of the study is to be able to detect and quantify the GMO from the mixture of natural food components. The surface plasmon resonance (SPR) technique combined with fluorescence was used for this purpose. During the presented studies, two key issues are addressed and tried to solve; what is the best strategy to design and built an interfacial architecture of a probe oligonucletide layer either on a two dimensional surface or on an array platform; and what is the best detection method allowing for a sensitive monitoring of the hybridisation events. The study includes two parts: first part includes characterization of different PNAs on a 2D planar surface by defining affinity constants using the very well established optical method “Surface Plasmon Fluorescence Spectroscopy”(SPFS) and on the array platform by “Surface Plasmon Fluorescence Microscopy” (SPFM), and at the end comparison of the sensitivity of these two techniques. The second part is composed of detection of alien DNA in food components by using DNA and PNA catcher probes on the array platform in real-time by SPFM.

Synthesis of Modified Amino Acids and Insertion in Peptides and Mimetics. Structural Aspects and Impact on Biological Activity.

I studied the effects exerted by the modifications on structures and biological activities of the compounds so obtained. I prepared peptide analogues containing unusual amino acids such as halogenated, alkylated (S)- or (R)-tryptophans, useful for the synthesis of mimetics of the endogenous opioid peptide endomorphin-1, or 2-oxo-1,3-oxazolidine-4-carboxylic acids, utilized as pseudo-prolines having a clear all-trans configuration of the preceding peptide bond. The latter gave access to a series of constrained peptidomimetics with potential interest in medicinal chemistry and in the field of the foldamers. In particular, I have dedicated much efforts to the preparation of cyclopentapeptides containing D-configured, alfa-, or beta-aminoacids, and also of cyclotetrapeptides including the retro-inverso modification. The conformational analyses confirmed that these cyclic compounds can be utilized as rigid scaffolds mimicking gamma- or beta-turns, allowing to generate new molecular and 3D diversity. Much work has been dedicated to the structural analysis in solution and in the receptor-bound state, fundamental for giving a rationale to the experimentally determined bioactivity, as well as for predicting the activity of virtual compounds (in silico pre-screen). The conformational analyses in solution has been done mostly by NMR (2D gCosy, Roesy, VT, molecular dynamics, etc.). A special section is dedicated to the prediction of plausible poses of the ligands when bound to the receptors by Molecular Docking. This computational method proved to be a powerful tool for the investigation of ligand-receptor interactions, and for the design of selective agonists and antagonists. Another practical use of cyclic peptidomimetics was the synthesis and biological evaluation of cyclic analogues of endomorphin-1 lacking in a protonable amino group. The studies revealed that a inverse type II beta-turn on D-Trp-Phe constituted the bioactive conformation.

Effects of long-term feeding of genetically modified corn (event MON810) on the performance of lactating dairy cows

A long-term study over 25 months was conducted to evaluate the effects of genetically modified corn on performance of lactating dairy cows. Thirty-six dairy cows were assigned to two feeding groups and fed with diets based on whole-crop silage, kernels and whole-crop cobs from Bt-corn (Bt-MON810) or its isogenic not genetically modified counterpart (CON) as main components. The study included two consecutive lactations. There were no differences in the chemical composition and estimated net energy content of Bt-MON810 and CON corn components and diets. CON feed samples were negative for the presence of Cry1Ab protein, while in Bt-MON810 feed samples the Cry1Ab protein was detected. Cows fed Bt-MON810 corn had a daily Cry1Ab protein intake of 6.0 mg in the first lactation and 6.1 mg in the second lactation of the trial. Dry matter intake (DMI) was 18.8 and 20.7 kg/cow per day in the first and the second lactation of the trial, with no treatment differences. Similarly, milk yield (23.8 and 29.0 kg/cow per day in the first and the second lactation of the trial) was not affected by dietary treatment. There were no consistent effects of feeding MON810 or its isogenic CON on milk composition or body condition. Thus, the present long-term study demonstrated the compositional and nutritional equivalence of Bt-MON810 and its isogenic CON.

Novel insights into mechanisms of food allergy and allergic airway inflammation using experimental mouse models

Over the last decades, considerable efforts have been undertaken in the development of animal models mimicking the pathogenesis of allergic diseases occurring in humans. The mouse has rapidly emerged as the animal model of choice, due to considerations of handling and costs and, importantly, due to the availability of a large and increasing arsenal of genetically modified mouse strains and molecular tools facilitating the analysis of complex disease models. Here, we review latest developments in allergy research that have arisen from in vivo experimentation in the mouse, with a focus on models of food allergy and allergic asthma, which constitute major health problems with increasing incidence in industrialized countries. We highlight recent novel findings and controversies in the field, most of which were obtained through the use of gene-deficient or germ-free mice, and discuss new potential therapeutic approaches that have emerged from animal studies and that aim at attenuating allergic reactions in human patients.

Biological safety concepts of genetically modified live bacterial vaccines

Live vaccines possess the advantage of having access to induce cell-mediated and antibody-mediated immunity; thus in certain cases they are able to prevent infection, and not only disease. Furthermore, live vaccines, particularly bacterial live vaccines, are relatively cheap to produce and easy to apply. Hence they are suitable to immunize large communities or herds. The induction of both cell-mediated immunity as well as antibody-mediated immunity, which is particularly beneficial in inducing mucosal immune responses, is obtained by the vaccine-strain's ability to colonize and multiply in the host without causing disease. For this reason, live vaccines require attenuation of virulence of the bacterium to which immunity must be induced. Traditionally attenuation was achieved simply by multiple passages of the microorganism on growth medium, in animals, eggs or cell cultures or by chemical or physical mutagenesis, which resulted in random mutations that lead to attenuation. In contrast, novel molecular methods enable the development of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) targeted to specific genes that are particularly suited to induce attenuation or to reduce undesirable effects in the tissue in which the vaccine strains can multiply and survive. Since live vaccine strains (attenuated by natural selection or genetic engineering) are potentially released into the environment by the vaccinees, safety issues concerning the medical as well as environmental aspects must be considered. These involve (i) changes in cell, tissue and host tropism, (ii) virulence of the carrier through the incorporation of foreign genes, (iii) reversion to virulence by acquisition of complementation genes, (iv) exchange of genetic information with other vaccine or wild-type strains of the carrier organism and (v) spread of undesired genes such as antibiotic resistance genes. Before live vaccines are applied, the safety issues must be thoroughly evaluated case-by-case. Safety assessment includes knowledge of the precise function and genetic location of the genes to be mutated, their genetic stability, potential reversion mechanisms, possible recombination events with dormant genes, gene transfer to other organisms as well as gene acquisition from other organisms by phage transduction, transposition or plasmid transfer and cis- or trans-complementation. For this, GMOs that are constructed with modern techniques of genetic engineering display a significant advantage over random mutagenesis derived live organisms. The selection of suitable GMO candidate strains can be made under in vitro conditions using basic knowledge on molecular mechanisms of pathogenicity of the corresponding bacterial species rather than by in vivo testing of large numbers of random mutants. This leads to a more targeted safety testing on volunteers and to a reduction in the use of animal experimentation.

Expression of CD95 on mature leukocytes of MRL/lpr mice after transplantation of genetically modified bone marrow stem cells

Bone marrow transplantation (BMT) is commonly used for the treatment of severe haematological and immunological diseases. For instance, the autoimmune lymphoproliferative syndrome (ALPS) caused by a complete expression defect of CD95 (Fas, APO-1) can be cured by allogeneic BMT. However, since this therapy may not generate satisfactory results when only partially compatible donors are available, we were interested in the development of a potential alternative treatment by using lentiviral gene transfer of a normal copy of CD95 cDNA in hematopoietic stem cells. Here, we show that this approach applied to MRL/lpr mice results in the expression of functional CD95 receptors on the surface of lymphocytes, monocytes, and granulocytes. This suggests that correction of CD95 deficiency can be achieved by gene therapy.

Use of Genetically Modified Glial Cells Overexpressing Laminin α1-Chain Peptides in Neurite Outgrowth Studies

1. C6 glioma cells were transfected with two constructs carrying C-terminal laminin alpha1-chain sequences of 117 and 114 bp length, respectively. These sequences are specifically known to code for peptides which have neurite-promoting activity. 2. The stable expression and secretion of the two peptides was detected by Northern and Western blot analysis. 3. Primary neuronal cultures derived from embryonic mouse forebrain were cocultured with these transfected cells and exhibited a substantial increase in neurite outgrowth and in survival time. Conditioned media from the transfected cells generated similar effects. 4. Organotypic cultures from embryonic mouse brain were used as a second system as being closer to the in vivo situation. Again, coculture of brain slices with transfected cells or treatment with laminin peptide-containing media increased neuronal outgrowth.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.