Flippable Pairs and Subset Comparisons in Comparative Probability Orderings and Related Simple Games

We show that every additively representable comparative probability order on n atoms is determined by at least n - 1 binary subset comparisons. We show that there are many orders of this kind, not just the lexicographic order. These results provide answers to two questions of Fishburn et al (2002). We also study the flip relation on the class of all comparative probability orders introduced by Maclagan. We generalise an important theorem of Fishburn, Peke?c and Reeds, by showing that in any minimal set of comparisons that determine a comparative probability order, all comparisons are flippable. By calculating the characteristics of the flip relation for n = 6 we discover that the regions in the corresponding hyperplane arrangement can have no more than 13 faces and that there are 20 regions with 13 faces. All the neighbours of the 20 comparative probability orders which correspond to those regions are representable. Finally we define a class of simple games with complete desirability relation for which its strong desirability relation is acyclic, and show that the flip relation carries all the information about these games. We show that for n = 6 these games are weighted majority games.

The risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

This thesis studies survival analysis techniques dealing with censoring to produce predictive tools that predict the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) re-intervention. Censoring indicates that some patients do not continue follow up, so their outcome class is unknown. Methods dealing with censoring have drawbacks and cannot handle the high censoring of the two EVAR datasets collected. Therefore, this thesis presents a new solution to high censoring by modifying an approach that was incapable of differentiating between risks groups of aortic complications. Feature selection (FS) becomes complicated with censoring. Most survival FS methods depends on Cox's model, however machine learning classifiers (MLC) are preferred. Few methods adopted MLC to perform survival FS, but they cannot be used with high censoring. This thesis proposes two FS methods which use MLC to evaluate features. The two FS methods use the new solution to deal with censoring. They combine factor analysis with greedy stepwise FS search which allows eliminated features to enter the FS process. The first FS method searches for the best neural networks' configuration and subset of features. The second approach combines support vector machines, neural networks, and K nearest neighbor classifiers using simple and weighted majority voting to construct a multiple classifier system (MCS) for improving the performance of individual classifiers. It presents a new hybrid FS process by using MCS as a wrapper method and merging it with the iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce the features. The proposed techniques outperformed FS methods based on Cox's model such as; Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in the log-rank test's p-values, sensitivity, and concordance. This proves that the proposed techniques are more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention. Consequently, they enable doctors to set patients’ appropriate future observation plan.

Random Forest Based Approach for Concept-Drift Handling

Algorithms for concept drift handling are important for various applications including video analysis and smart grids. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classication method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with îriginal random forest with incorporated replace-the-looser forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drift classiers like AWE2.

Geometric Study of the Weak Equilibrium in a Weighted Case for a Two-Dimensional Competition Game

In this work, an improvement of the results presented by [1] Abellanas et al. (Weak Equilibrium in a Spatial Model. International Journal of Game Theory, 40(3), 449-459) is discussed. Concretely, this paper investigates an abstract game of competition between two players that want to earn the maximum number of points from a finite set of points in the plane. It is assumed that the distribution of these points is not uniform, so an appropriate weight to each position is assigned. A definition of equilibrium which is weaker than the classical one is included in order to avoid the uniqueness of the equilibrium position typical of the Nash equilibrium in these kinds of games. The existence of this approximated equilibrium in the game is analyzed by means of computational geometry techniques.

Australian Broadcasting Corporation v Lenah Game Meats Pty Ltd

Principle issues considered in Australian Broadcasting Corporation v Lenah Game Meats Pty Ltd - whether it was necessary to show a cause of action for an interlocutory injunction to be granted - whether a right to privacy existed - whether the ABC was protected in this case by an implied constitutional freedom - majority rejected a wide interpretation on grounds upon which an interlocutory injunction could be granted - recognition of the possibility of a tort of invasion of privacy under Australian law by five of the six judges.

Bargaining one-dimensional policies and the efficiency of super majority rules

We consider negotiations selecting one-dimensional policies. Individuals have single-peaked preferences, and they are impatient. Decisions arise from a bargaining game with random proposers and (super) majority approval, ranging from the simple majority up to unanimity. The existence and uniqueness of stationary subgame perfect equilibrium is established, and its explicit characterization provided. We supply an explicit formula to determine the unique alternative that prevails, as impatience vanishes, for each majority. As an application, we examine the efficiency of majority rules. For symmetric distributions of peaks unanimity is the unanimously preferred majority rule. For asymmetric populations rules maximizing social surplus are characterized.

Setting the rules of the game: The choice of electoral systems in advanced democracies

The origins of electoral systems have received scant attention in the literature. Looking at the history of electoral rules in the advanced world in the last century, this paper shows that the existing wide variation in electoral rules across nations can be traced to the strategic decisions that the current ruling parties, anticipating the coordinating consequences of different electoral regimes, make to maximize their representation according to the following conditions. On the one hand, as long as the electoral arena does not change substantially and the current electoral regime serves the ruling parties well, the latter have no incentives to modify the electoral regime. On the other hand, as soon as the electoral arena changes (due to the entry of new voters or a change in their preferences), the ruling parties will entertain changing the electoral system, depending on two main conditions: the emergence of new parties and the coordinating capacities of the old ruling parties. Accordingly, if the new parties are strong, the old parties shift from plurality/majority rules to proportional representation (PR) only if the latter are locked into a 'non-Duvergerian' equilibrium; i.e. if no old party enjoys a dominant position (the case of most small European states)--conversely, they do not if a Duvergerian equilibrium exists (the case of Great Britain). Similarly, whenever the new entrants are weak, a non-PR system is maintained, regardless of the structure of the old party system (the case of the USA). The paper discusses as well the role of trade and ethnic and religious heterogeneity in the adoption of PR rules.

Mutual trust and cooperation in the evolutionary hawks-doves game

Using a new dynamical network model of society in which pairwise interactions are weighted according to mutual satisfaction, we show that cooperation is the norm in the hawks-doves game when individuals are allowed to break ties with undesirable neighbors and to make new acquaintances in their extended neighborhood. Moreover, cooperation is robust with respect to rather strong strategy perturbations. We also discuss the empirical structure of the emerging networks, and the reasons that allow cooperators to thrive in the population. Given the metaphorical importance of this game for social interaction, this is an encouraging positive result as standard theory for large mixing populations prescribes that a certain fraction of defectors must always exist at equilibrium.

Reaching influential early adopters effectively in Finland : Rock Science – new generation board game

Innovations diffuse at different speed among the members of a social system through various communication channels. The group of early adopters can be seen as the most influential reference group for majority of people to base their innovation adoption decisions on. Thus, the early adopters can often accelerate the diffusion of innovations. The purpose of this research is to discover means of diffusion for an innovative product in Finnish market through the influential early adopters in respect to the characteristics of the case product. The purpose of the research can be achieved through the following sub objectives:  Who are the potential early adopters for the case product and why?  How the potential early adopters of the case product should be communicated with?  What would be the expectations, preferences, and experiences of the early adopters of the case product? The case product examined in this research is a new board game called Rock Science which is considered to be incremental innovation bringing board gaming and hard rock music together in a new way. The research was conducted in two different parts using both qualitative and quantitative research methods. This mixed method research began with expert interviews of six music industry experts. The information gathered from the interviews enabled researcher to compose the questionnaire for the quantitative part of the study. Internet survey that was sent out resulted with a sample of 97 responses from the targeted population. The key findings of the study suggest that (1) the potential early adopters for the case product are more likely to be young adults from the capital city area with great interest in rock music, (2) the early adopters can be reached effectively through credible online sources of information, and (3) the respondents overall product feedback is highly positive, except in the case of quality-price ratio of the product. This research indicates that more effective diffusion of Rock Science board game in Finland can be reached through (1) strategic alliances with music industry and media partnerships, (2) pricing adjustments, (3) use of supporting game formats, and (4) innovative use of various social media channels.

The role of business model in computer game development organizations

The computer game industry has grown steadily for years, and in revenues it can be compared to the music and film industries. The game industry has been moving to digital distribution. Computer gaming and the concept of business model are discussed among industrial practitioners and the scientific community. The significance of the business model concept has increased in the scientific literature recently, although there is still a lot of discussion going on on the concept. In the thesis, the role of the business model in the computer game industry is studied. Computer game developers, designers, project managers and organization leaders in 11 computer game companies were interviewed. The data was analyzed to identify the important elements of computer game business model, how the business model concept is perceived and how the growth of the organization affects the business model. It was identified that the importance of human capital is crucial to the business. As games are partly a product of creative thinking also innovation and the creative process are highly valued. The same applies to technical skills when performing various activities. Marketing and customer relationships are also considered as key elements in the computer game business model. Financing and partners are important especially for startups, when the organization is dependent on external funding and third party assets. The results of this study provide organizations with improved understanding on how the organization is built and what business model elements are weighted.

The relation between video game violence and aggression

Experimental research has shown that playing violent video games produces higher levels of aggressive cognition, aggressive affect, physiological arousal, and aggressive behavior (in the short-term) than non-violent video games (see Anderson, Gentile & Buckley, 2007). However, there are two major limitations with these studies. First, the majority of experimental studies that have compared the effects of violent versus non-violent video games on aggression have failed to equate these games in terms of competitiveness, difficulty, and pace of action. Thus, although the common finding is that violent video games produce higher levels of aggression than nonviolent video games, other unmatched factors beyond the actual violent content may be responsible for the elevated levels of aggression. Second, previous experimental studies have tended to use a measure of aggression that may also measure competitiveness, leading to questions about whether violent video games are related to aggression or competitiveness. The present thesis addressed these two issues by fIrst equating a violent and non-violent video game on competitiveness, difficulty and pace of action in Experiment I , and then comparing the effect of each game on aggressive behavior using an unambiguous measure of aggressive behavior (i.e., the Hot Sauce Paradigm). We found that video game violence was not sufficient to elevate aggressive behavior compared to a non-violent video game. Practical implications and directions for future research are discussed.

When the Beautiful Game Turns Ugly: A Study of Fan Experiences of Perceived Match Fixing in Soccer

Limited academic attention has been given to the nexus between corruption in soccer and its impact on fandom. Consequently, the purpose of this qualitative study was to better understand the lived experiences of highly identified soccer fanatics living through this era of match fixing in the sport. Social networking site Twitter was utilized to recruit participants from three continents – Africa, Europe, and North America – based on submissions to the site in response to a perceived fix from a high-profile March, 2013 match. A total of 12 semi-structured interviews were conducted with highly identified soccer fans in accordance with Funk and James’ (2001) Psychological Continuum Model (PCM). Despite the majority of participants feeling skepticism about the purity of soccer today, half of the participants’ fandom remained unchanged in the face of perceived match fixing. Directions for future research and recommendations are considered and discussed.

Agile Game: A Project Management Game for Agile Methods

Since mid-1990s, companies have adopted agile methods and incorporated them in their development methodologies. For this reason, future project managers and developers need to have a full understanding of these methods. At present, the university’s approach to agile methods is theoretical and is not reflected during the development of a product and their practical use. The purpose of this project is the creation of a software system in the form of a game, named Agile Game, which simulates their use. The system is designed for use as supplementary material in lectures, to help students understand agile methods, to present their use within a project, and to demonstrate how they differ from traditional project management methodologies. The final system, which is web based, was implemented using PHP, MySQL and JavaScript. It was fully tested against the requirements and evaluated by peer students. The evaluation showed that the majority of users were satisfied with the system but they thought that it should contain more detailed information at every step of the game. For this reason, some parts of the design and the content were reviewed to meet user requirements.

“Financial alchemy” or a zero sum game? Real estate finance, securitisation and the UK property market

Following the US model, the UK has seen considerable innovation in the funding, finance and procurement of real estate in the last decade. In the growing CMBS market asset backed securitisations have included $2.25billion secured on the Broadgate office development and issues secured on Canary Wharf and the Trafford Centre regional mall. Major occupiers (retailer Sainsbury’s, retail bank Abbey National) have engaged in innovative sale & leaseback and outsourcing schemes. Strong claims are made concerning the benefits of such schemes – e.g. British Land were reported to have reduced their weighted cost of debt by 150bp as a result of the Broadgate issue. The paper reports preliminary findings from a project funded by the Corporation of London and the RICS Research Foundation examining a number of innovative schemes to identify, within a formal finance framework, sources of added value and hidden costs. The analysis indicates that many of the gains claimed conceal costs – in terms of market value of debt or flexibility of management – while others result from unusual firm or market conditions (for example utilising the UK long lease and the unusual shape of the yield curve). Nonetheless, there are real gains resulting from the innovations, reflecting arbitrage and institutional constraints in the direct (private) real estate market

Periprocedural embolic events related to carotid artery stenting detected by diffusion-weighted MRI: comparison between proximal and distal embolus protection devices

PURPOSE: To evaluate and compare the efficacy of proximal versus distal embolus protection devices (EPD) during carotid artery angioplasty/stenting (CAS) based on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI). METHODS: Forty-four patients (31 men; mean age 68 years, range 48-85) underwent protected CAS and had DW-MRI before and after the intervention. The cohort was analyzed according to the type of EPD used: a proximal EPD was deployed in 25 (56.8%) patients (17 men; mean age 66 years, range 48-85) and a distal filter in 19 (14 men; mean age 70 years, range 58-79). Fifteen (60.0%) patients with proximal protection were symptomatic of the target lesion; in the distal protection group, 10 (52.6%) were symptomatic. RESULTS: New lesions were seen on the postinterventional DW-MRI in 28.0% (7/25) of the proximal EPD group versus 32.6% (6/19) of those with a distal filter (p = NS). The majority were clinically silent. The new lesions in the vascular territory of the stented carotid artery in the group as a whole and per patient were fewer in the proximal EPD group (p = NS). No significant differences were noted in the T(2) appearance of the new lesions or the number of new lesions observed away from the vascular territory of the stented artery. CONCLUSION: Proximal embolus protection devices show a nonsignificant trend toward fewer embolic events, which warrants large-scale studies. Furthermore, proximal protection devices can be useful to control and treat acute in-stent thrombosis.